The Road to Rebirth Finance

Chapter 350 Investment Planning for 2016 (Two in One)

In the evening on December 12, the stock price of Nvidia frequently rose, and it fell for the second consecutive trading day. The stock price fell to 18 US dollars, and there were finally signs of a short-term peak.

For several consecutive trading days, the trend of Nvidia has not been ideal, but it does not have the big ups and downs of A shares, and the trend is very flat, which is somewhat similar to the recent trend of Maotai.

The so-called big drop and big rise are both within a 3% rise and fall, and this kind of trend is Gu Junhao's favorite.

In fact, as far as rice stocks are concerned, Tesla's rise is also very large, but his stock price fluctuates too much during the day, and there is a founder with a distinctive personality, which will cause great fluctuations in the stock price every time he speaks. For investors, it is actually very unfavorable.

Nvidia has finally shown signs of adjustment, and the end of the year is approaching. This is very good news for Gu Junhao, who is expected to make a big splash in the rice stock market next year.

After all, the A-shares in 2016 were actually lackluster. Except for the white horse stock market at a stage, there were not as many stocks that could make them famous as in 2015.

In my impression, the most famous stock in 2016 is probably Shuangma Group, and this stock can be regarded as the annual demon stock in 2016.

Under the leadership of Shuangma Group, the performance of the whole cement board in 2016 is also considered good, which is also in line with the cyclical nature of the sharp rise in housing prices in 2016.

The life cycle of housing prices affects not only the real estate industry, but also a series of raw materials such as cement, household appliances, decoration and other industries above its industrial chain.

For stock selection in 16, you can also start from this aspect, select some white horse stocks in surrounding industries, and enrich the investment categories of Junshi No. [-].

After the amount of funds is too large, the era of playing monster stocks with large positions is over for Gu Junhao.

In fact, this kind of situation happened to me in my previous life. It's not that I haven't bought demon stocks before, but the positions I can participate in are also very limited.

For Gu Junhao, the benefits earned from the monster stocks are not dispensable, but they have little effect.

In my previous life, the intraday fluctuations of my own account were often kept below 3%, and there were very few intraday surges. If I held a heavy position in bank stocks, the fluctuations would be even smaller.

Every year, Gu Junhao chooses a period of rest for the first position, buys bank stocks heavily, waits for dividends and fills in rights, and if the increase exceeds the dividends, he will also choose to sell.

When bored, Gu Junhao will also use a small account to operate some stocks in the more popular sectors of the market, so as to maintain a sense of the market and make himself not so boring.

People who have been engaged in stock trading for a long time actually live a rather ordinary life without looking at the market. This is one of the reasons why most retail investors say they want to quit the stock market and will eventually come back.

In the stock market, if you can endure loneliness, you have defeated most investors.

The net worth of Junshi No. 12 released this week once again showed two completely different trends from last week. The latest net worth data on December 18 showed that the overall size of Junshi No. 64.8 exceeded 4.6391 billion yuan, and its net worth reached [-].

Compared with last week, the size of the fund has increased by 3.27%, which has once again refreshed and increased sharply, but the overall increase still underperforms the two city indexes.

This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.2% to 3578.66 points. The ChiNext Index rebounded sharply by 5.95% this week. The index returned to above 2800 points and reported 2830.26%.

For a fund with a scale of more than 60 billion yuan, its volume is there, and the growth rate of more than 3% within a week is not bad.

But people in the industry just don't understand why Gu Junhao always wants to control the increase within a certain range, and what is the reason for him to do so.

In fact, the opinions of people in the industry did not fail to reach Gu Junhao's ears, although Gu Junhao did not participate in the exchange meetings between industries.

However, the scale of the fund has grown so far, and Junshi Capital has a large amount of cash flow. In terms of personal assets, Gu Junhao also focuses on a large amount of cash flow.

After the status was improved, the unsocial and maverick charging model of the fund at the beginning turned into a low-key personality and confidence in his own trading ability.

This is the same reason as if you are poor and no one asks you in the downtown area, and if you are rich, you have distant relatives in the deep mountains. When colleagues and investors discuss the performance of Gu Junhao and Junshi No. [-], someone will always tell them.

For this situation, Gu Junhao is also very helpless. There are still nine trading days before the end of 2015. This week's fund fluctuations are due to the sharp rise of Vanke and the rebound of the entire liquor sector.

Starting next week, Vanke's trading was suspended again, and then Vanke entered the off-market game. The off-site game has little to do with Vanke's shareholders or the people who eat melons.

The real life and death is only the offensive and defensive sides that are deeply involved in it; no, this weekend, Vanke's management responded quickly and pointed directly at the core, which is the problem of the capital chain of the guarantee.

As the dispute between the two parties has aroused great concern in the market, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange sent a letter of concern to Ju Shenghua before, asking Ju Shenghua to give a detailed account of the source of funds for Vanke.

This week, it announced that it would formally hire a professional institution to directly investigate the financing situation of the Baoneng Department. This was the first arrow released by the management of Vanke.

The trading suspension also affects the operation mode of Junshi No. [-]; the suspension of Wanke has caused Junshi No. [-] to have only two support positions left to trade normally.

Speaking of this year, although he escaped the suspension of thousands of shares during the stock market crash, Gu Junhao also experienced several suspensions.

Among them, Dongfang Fortune has suspended trading twice, Yinzhijie once, Wuliangye once; and now Wanke.

For the market in 2015, suspension of trading is really the norm, which is quite unfavorable for the turnover rate of funds, especially for high-leverage funds like Baoneng.

Once the stock is suspended, you still have to pay interest while the funds cannot flow. The energy protection system uses so much funds, and the suspension is actually quite fatal.

In my impression, after Vanke’s resumption of trading, there was a very dangerous decline. Its H shares even plummeted by 35% in one day, and its A shares even experienced consecutive limit-downs.

All of this is one of the means for the management to fight back. After learning about Baoneng’s leveraged position cost, the management once thought of breaking through Baoneng’s liquidation line in this way.

Baoneng, which was acquired smoothly in the early stage, has actually formed a relatively passive situation since Vanke’s stock entered the suspension stage.

Although it is guaranteed to be out with a large profit in the end, the process can be described as very thrilling, and if you are not careful, you will lose all your money.

As for Baoneng, which exited at a profit, its development was actually not smooth in the next few years, which was also one of the sequelae after the failed acquisition.

The news on the weekend is still dominated by the topic of financial reform. At the same time, it also announced the balance of the new round of Shanghai and Shenzhen financing, which was 11936.18 billion yuan, of which the financing balance increased by 98.02 billion yuan month-on-month, and the balance of securities lending was 31.43 billion yuan. The chain fell by 0.83 million yuan.

Securities lending can be said to be my big A's unique short-selling method. A very simple analogy is that when you think a stock is at a high level, you can borrow stocks from a brokerage and sell them.

After that, if the stock falls as you expected, buy the stock back from the market at a certain low position and return it to the brokerage. Generally speaking, this is the so-called securities lending.

Of course, at a real high level, you can't borrow many securities to sell securities. Generally speaking, the daily amount of securities sold for each stock is very limited.

The easiest way to judge whether a stock is eligible for margin financing and securities lending is to see if the stock still has an "R" mark.

On Monday, December 12, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index started the week off with an increase of 21%. Since November 1.77 and again, it stood at 11 points and reported at 27 points.

A month is almost over, and the Shanghai Composite Index is still recovering around the big negative line on November 11. When the index is gradually approaching the position of the annual line, the trading volume of the two cities is low.

The first year-end closing month after the stock market crash, coupled with the sluggish performance of small and medium-sized enterprises this month, the trading sentiment in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is very sluggish.

After Wanke's trading suspension, Gu Junhao didn't need to enter the trading room anymore. There were only two stocks left to trade, and he no longer needed to stare at them.

As far as the current position of Junshi No. 12 is concerned, the overall market value has been hovering between 13 billion and 2.44 billion yuan, which also includes the suspension of [-] million positions.

The specific tradable market value is only about 10 billion yuan, which is less than one-sixth of the overall position. For a few traders at the end of the year, there is a high probability that they will be dawdling.

But even so, Gu Junhao will wait until the year after the circuit breaker before building a position; and starting this week, Gu Junhao's task is to select specific investment targets for the year's position opening.

In terms of the liquor industry, Maotai and Wuliangye already have positions, but Wuliangye's position is less than 6 million yuan, and it will be increased again after the next year.

In addition, in terms of real estate, Vanke has suspended trading, but considering the recovery of housing prices next year, some allocations can still be made to the real estate sector.

There is also the white horse stock that revolves around the real estate industry chain. The rise in housing prices has caused a certain amount of pressure on the lives of ordinary people.

But if you look at the capital market, the recovery of the real estate industry can drive multiple industries, and even the liquor industry can increase sales to a certain extent.

Specific to the market, in Gu Junhao's thinking, it can be called a general consumer category. When buying a house, you need to decorate it, and you need to buy home appliances.

Baobuqi will have a big drink to celebrate. All of this can be described as a big consumer category, and promoting consumption and stimulating domestic demand will also be an important topic in the next few years.

After the house is bought, the car is naturally indispensable, whether in terms of practical needs or vanity. If economic conditions permit, I believe everyone will want to buy a car.

This is another big industrial chain. Above the capital market, a car is not just a car, and all aspects of the industrial chain are involved.

This involves another major category of consumption, the popularization of new energy vehicles, which also drives the upstream and downstream industries of electric power.

In the past few years this year, power stocks are also a good choice, and there will be a wave of hype every year; similarly, power also belongs to the pan-large consumer category.

For medium and long-term investment, the most important thing to do is to clarify your own investment ideas, not just open the K-line just like short-term trading.

After the investment ideas are clear, the specific stock selection is very convenient. Combined with the current economic environment and policies, select your preferred category of investment in the market with a high success rate.

As a qualified investor, whether you are engaged in short-term or medium- and long-term transactions, the most important thing is to clarify your own investment ideas.

The medium and long-term has the idea of ​​medium and long-term, while the short-term has the idea of ​​short-term operation. Even if it is a board player, there are traces to be found, and it is not as brainless as the leeks imagined.

Short-term trading does not mean that a stock will end its life cycle in only a few trading days; Hold the head and wait for the process.

In this way, a complete theme cycle is formed, which is also the basis for ultra-short-term investors to operate, and there are traces of when they can hit the board.

Different types of ultra-short-term investors will choose their own way to participate, and the so-called hot money style is formed from this.

Of course, with the emergence of a large number of quantitative trading funds in the future, the formation of crazy T within the day will also make the life cycle of the ultra-short-term shorter.

However, it is now 2015. Although quantitative funds have appeared on the market, they are still relatively rare, and they cannot influence the market structure.

Unlike the era before Gu Junhao's rebirth, quantitative funds have become very common. Whether it is a medium-to-long-term investor or an ultra-short-term investor, it can be said that quantitative funds are very troublesome.

In the past, each node in the cycle of a theme was about two or three days later, and investors had a better opportunity to come back and intervene or run away.

But after the emergence of self-quantification, it may be done to you within a day, and the market from a big piece of meat to a bowl of big noodles in a day abounds.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose above 3600 points, and due to the limitation of trading volume, it entered a sideways trend like the high in November.

On December 12, the winter solstice day, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated by less than 22%, and the trading volume was only 1 billion yuan. Small and medium-sized enterprises continued to perform sluggishly.

On December 12, the Shanghai Composite Index refreshed its high point in the second half of this year within a few days, and after reporting 23 points, it was no surprise that it dived from a high platform.

Compared with yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index has gone out of a wave of high volume and long upper shadow line peaking trend, with a trading volume of 4300 billion yuan, which even exceeded the volume of this Monday’s increase.

In the following two trading days this week, the Shanghai Composite Index also fell below the 5-day line again without any surprises. On the last trading day of this week on the 25th, the combined trading volume of the three major indexes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was less than 7000. billion.

Judging from the trend of the three major indexes, even without the help of the circuit breaker, the signal of peak adjustment is very obvious. It is obviously biased to completely attribute the stock market crash on New Year's Day in 16 to the circuit breaker.

For example, the adjustment of Tianqi Liye's stock price trend in the self-operated market is very obvious. Since its peak on the 10th of this month, within 12 trading days, Tianqi Liye's stock price has fallen from the highest level of 176 yuan to today's close 140.61 yuan.

The drop has exceeded 25%, which is already a very obvious correction trend, and the stock price trend of Longji shares in Gu Junhao's personal position is also very ordinary.

In the past two months, the stock price of Longji shares has been fluctuating around 13 yuan to 14 yuan. However, this has something to do with the fact that its first batch of restricted shares will be lifted on the 30th of this month.

At the end of this month, Longji shares accounted for 0.31% of the total share capital of the initial public shares will be lifted, which will have a big impact on the stock price. Coincidentally, Longji shares were suspended again on the 23rd.

The reason for the suspension was the planning of a non-public offering of stocks, and another heavily held stock was suspended. Gu Junhao was also quite depressed.

The current market environment is really chaotic, individual stocks are suspended at will, and the market is full of stocks, and even the most serious things have to be suspended for a period of time.

Before the suspension of trading, Longji's shares closed at 14.24 yuan, and Gu Junhao's market value was 4.272 million yuan, with a floating gain of more than 1.42 million yuan.

I don't know if the suspension this time can avoid the circuit breaker, but even if it is avoided, it is of no use. I will participate in the make-up after the resumption of Wuliangye.

What's more, even if it is an additional issuance, the continuous decline in the stock price is a great thing for the shareholders of the additional issuance. On the whole, the trend of Longji shares after the resumption of trading is not very optimistic.

Also depressed is Li Ze. Although Li Ze has the same long-term investment psychology as Gu Junhao since he bought it, the suspension of stocks is always uncomfortable.

It is worth mentioning that the stock price performance of Longji shares has been mediocre in the past two months, and all stud group members who followed Li Ze into it before, except Li Ze, have all been washed out.

The Longji shares that have not yet been launched, except for being trapped, are destined to not be able to hold many retail investors, and Li Ze is just an exception.

In addition to not investing a large amount of money, Tong Huashun's previous profits also gave him great confidence.

After the end of this week, the overall size of Junshi No. 65.2 has risen to more than 4.668 billion yuan, with a net worth ratio of [-], which once again returned to a very small range of changes. However, the change in net worth this week is no longer surprising .

Anyway, after a big rise, the next week will enter into a less volatile stage; for two months, the performance of Junshi No. [-] has been like this. New investors, after two months of torture, have slowly got used to.

For new investors, the performance of Junshi No. 10 in the past two months is indeed somewhat disappointing. The overall increase of the fund has not reached [-]% in the past two months, which is completely inconsistent with the previous performance.

In the early stage, investors will complain, but they have gradually accepted it in the later stage; it doesn't matter, as long as it is rising, anyway, the market is not so good now, and it is better to make money than not to make money.

What's more, according to the step-by-step rules and sharing ratio adopted by Junshi No. [-] management fee, I am not at a disadvantage. If the increase is small, the management fee will be paid less, which is relatively fair.

Most investors are like this, as long as you accept a result, he will use various reasons to convince himself, without the need for Gu Junhao to come forward to appease him.

For example, the well-known fund managers who have trapped countless Christians in later generations, besides cursing, leeks will comfort themselves. This is the so-called: "Long-term investment."

　I'm very busy today, I don't move anymore, I owe the leader two chapters!

　　
　
(End of this chapter)