Year: I had a good time when I was young

Chapter 813 Opportunity to Short Sell

The Chinese have investigated the information of Swiss bank account holders through legal channels, and so have other European countries such as Britain and France.

A single account does not involve large-scale leakage of customer information. Even if Switzerland wants to refuse, it has to take into account the interests and political relations between countries.

Chu Xiangqian saw Hader nod to him, so he smiled and said, "Pounds, US dollars or Hong Kong dollars are all fine, but I suggest you hold US dollars.

I estimate that the pressure on the pound-dollar exchange rate will increase and it will continue to fall in the future."

Hader and others were stunned, and then fell silent.

As English people, Hadel and others were unwilling to believe what Chu Xiangqian said from the bottom of their hearts, but as long as they still had some common sense, they knew that Chu Xiangqian's ability to make money was far better than those experts outside who only knew about profits but didn't understand actual operations.

Otherwise, why do all the experts have to rely on speeches and salaries to make a living?
And the reality has also proved that the pound has been falling against the US dollar in recent years.

As for the Hong Kong dollar, neither the British pound nor the British pound can be held. The Hong Kong dollar, which has been locked at a fixed exchange rate with the British pound, will only fall further in the future.

In an instant, these foreigners suddenly felt that the future of Hong Kong Island was somewhat difficult.

Rather than retaining the properties and assets in Hong Kong Island, it is better to sell them and buy property in Magnesium.

If Chu Xiangqian knew they were thinking this way, he would definitely laugh to death.

By increasing wealth through property investment, Hong Kong Island, Tokyo, especially the Ginza area, and even Singapore and Kuala Lumpur will be the places where the highest real estate appreciation will occur in the next 30 to 40 years.

Even though the cherry blossoms will experience a lost 90 years starting from the 30s, the economy will be in a long-term slump, and even the real estate in Tokyo will be in a long-term slump, but Ginza will still be rising year by year.

If you go to buy property in Magnesium, the increase will not be as great as that in Hong Kong Island.

Of course, it is also true that there will inevitably be a crash every 10 years or so.

But for Chu Xiangqian, he is not afraid of the decline. Instead, he can take advantage of the economic crisis when a large number of owners lack cash turnover and take the opportunity to purchase high-quality properties at low prices.

The wealth of many future super-rich people in Hong Kong will increase dramatically. In addition to relying on their own wisdom, hard work and luck, they also need to accurately understand the situation and turn crises into opportunities.

The most famous one is Li Gongtan. Before the economic crisis twice, he expanded his shares to absorb funds in the market. After overcoming the crisis, he used tens of billions of funds in his hands to purchase high-quality real estate and properties in the market.

When the economy recovers, your wealth will double.

Chu Xiangqian didn't have to think so much and could make a move on such assets in advance at the nodes in his memory.

When a crisis occurs, it's time to eat meat.

The reason why Chu Xiangqian reminded these people in the poker club was to increase their holdings of US dollars.

In addition to the fact that he had been continuously reducing his holdings of British pounds, he also wanted to establish an inherent impression of his absolute authority in finance in the minds of the foreigners in the poker club.

Thinking of this, Chu Xiangqian suddenly remembered that in the mid-60s, the exchange rate of the pound to the US dollar would fall to 1 to 2.8.

Then, the exchange rate fluctuated up and down by 2.8 at 0.1 for ten years before falling again to 2.6.

At this time, the exchange rate has remained at 1 to 3.45.

I just have no memory of which exact year or month it fell to 2.8.

However, Chu Xiangqian frowned and thought for a moment, while Hader and others slowly quieted down and watched him in deep thought.

It really reminded him of the TV series The Crown, in which Margaret was once commissioned by Elizabeth to temporarily become a special envoy and fly to Magnesium to meet Kennedy's successor and request to lend 10 billion US dollars to England to maintain the exchange rate of the pound.

Kennedy's successor was Lyndon Johnson. After Kennedy was assassinated last year, Chu Xiangqian wanted to ask his superiors whether they knew anything about the inside story.

But after thinking about it, he still didn't say anything.

Although Johnson was successfully re-elected as President.

But in fact, he only served as president for 5 years and 2 months during his two terms.

The reason is that after Kennedy was assassinated, he was urgently appointed as the interim commander-in-chief in his capacity as deputy commander-in-chief.

In other words, his first term lasted only one year and two months.

Chu Xiangqian thought carefully about the plot of the crown and actually found more clues.

Johnson repeatedly refused to lend money to England because he was under pressure for re-election and was unwilling to give his competitors an advantage at such a critical moment.

After becoming the interim Supreme Leader last year, his term will only last until January 65, 1.

The election period for the president of the United States of Magnesium began in the first year, that is, at the beginning of the year 64, and lasted until voters began to vote in November.

But by the end of the year, the situation had basically come to a conclusion.

However, Margaret did not follow the usual path. At the dinner party hosting her, she told Johnson that she did not like Kennedy's wife Jacqueline.

By the way, he also said a few bad things about Kennedy.

This was not the advice that the English think tank gave to Margaret. To put it bluntly, Margaret was resentful.

Unexpectedly, Johnson kept praising Kennedy in many public occasions, but deep down in his heart, he also extremely disliked his former boss.

In 60, Johnson and Kennedy were rivals for the "elephant" candidate. Johnson lost to the other and had to become Kennedy's deputy and became deputy president.

The deputy commander of the Magnesium Nation seems to have a very high status. He is the second-in-command and can take up the position of commander-in-chief in an emergency during special periods.

But in fact, as long as nothing happens to the commander-in-chief, the deputy commander-in-chief is just a decoration.

Unless the commander-in-chief is confused, he will not give the deputy commander-in-chief much power.

But there are actually many advantages to being the deputy commander-in-chief. Just this qualification will give you a great advantage when you are elected as the commander-in-chief in the future.

If you can assist the President in achieving considerable results during his tenure, your qualifications and chances of winning will be greater.

But the two are competitors, and as a loser, it is really difficult for Johnson to convince Kennedy.

So when Margaret spoke ill of Jacqueline and Kennedy at the banquet, it immediately aroused Johnson's long-suppressed dissatisfaction.

In addition to drinking a lot of wine, and being surrounded by only his wife, Margaret, and a servant, Johnson actually talked to Margaret for several hours at the banquet, expressing his dissatisfaction with Kennedy in his heart.

I thought this would be a secret that would never be known to the outside world, but the servant turned out to be a big mouth.

Moreover, Johnson was 8% drunk himself after drinking, and while dancing with Margaret, he loudly told obscene jokes about Kennedy.

Among them was Monroe.

After the banquet, he was still drunk and invited Margaret to several public banquets again.

He would occasionally reveal some scandals about Kennedy, so it was impossible to keep it secret now.

Not only did Johnson lend England $10 billion, but as he told the English ambassador at the time, he approved the loan just for Margaret's sake.

When Margaret flew back to London, she was greeted not only by Eliza and Philip, but also by the people in power in Downing Street and thousands of English people who went to the airport to greet her.

Afterwards, the English media praised Margaret as a hero who saved England's economy and exchange rate. It can be said that this moment was probably the most glorious moment in Margaret's life.

Therefore, Chu Xiangqian could roughly confirm that the sharp drop in the pound sterling exchange rate should have happened this year, that is, in 64.

Then, according to the plot, Margaret was on vacation on a South Asian island when Elizabeth called her personally and forced her to fly to Magnesium.

Also, judging from the fact that Margaret was only wearing a thin coat when she returned to London, it should have been autumn when she went to Magnesium for help.

Then the time when the exchange rate will fall sharply is most likely in the first half of this year.

Today is February 64, 2. If you want to short the pound, you really have to start preparing.

For a moment, Chu Xiangqian couldn't help but feel excited.

By speculating on exchange rates, you can either become extremely wealthy or lose everything.

But Chu Xiangqian thought the risk this time was extremely low.

Considering England's sluggish economy for many years, even if the exchange rate rises, it is impossible for it to soar from 1 to 3.45 to 1 to 4.

Therefore, the only trouble for Chu Xiangqian is that, given the bearish trend of the pound, there are really few banks willing to lend him $10 billion and then repay the pound upon maturity.

To put it simply, short selling means borrowing a company's stock and selling it after 1 month, 3 months or half a year.

If the company's stock price drops, the company can buy back the same number of shares at the lower price and return them to the institution or bank that borrowed the shares.

The price difference is the profit.

There will be situations where you can make several times the profit if you make a profit, and you can also lose several times or even dozens of times the loss if you lose a profit. This is basically because of leverage.

As for leverage, if Chu Xiangqian only has 1 million US dollars, he can use this 1 million as collateral to convince the bank to help him add 10 times leverage, borrow 10 billion US dollars of stocks, and then sell them.

This 10 billion will remain in the bank until the stocks are bought back, and the remaining funds will be profit.

If the company's stock drops by 10%, you will make million.

If it drops by 50%, you will make 5 million.

But if it rises by 10%, it will be a loss of 1 million.

However, if the price rises by about 9% or 9.5%, the bank will ask Chu Xiangqian to increase the margin.

That is to say, in addition to the US$1 million paid previously, an additional deposit must be added.

Otherwise, if the increase is less than 10%, but above 9.5%, the bank will forcibly close the position.

That is to say, use the 10 billion in the bank plus 1 million in deposit to buy back the same number of stocks that were originally sold.

Otherwise, with such a large amount of funds, if the market suddenly experiences drastic fluctuations and the bank's reaction is slow, Chu Xiangqian will lose more.

If he goes bankrupt, the bank will have to bear the losses after deducting the 1 million deposit.

There will be situations where you lose several times or even dozens of times. This is basically because the market suddenly plummets and institutions or banks are unable to buy back the stocks.

All we can do is watch the prices plummet.

The risk of ten times leverage is great because the European and American stock markets do not have a limit of 10% daily fluctuations.

There are many cases where the price dropped from 10 yuan to 5 yuan, and it is not uncommon for the price to drop two or three times in a few days.

Among those who copy foreign exchange, 100 out of 99 will use leverage.

Not to mention 10 times, there are even 30 times and 50 times.

But these amounts of funds are very small, and the bank will inevitably set a warning line. If you do not have sufficient margin in your account, your position will be closed when the line is reached.
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Since Chu Xiangqian was certain about the exchange rate between the pound and the US dollar, it was impossible for it to suddenly soar.

Then the success rate of shorting the pound is at least 9%.

No, Chu Xiangqian felt that the success rate was at least 9%.

Given England's current economic situation, it is impossible for the pound to rise by 15%, that is, from 3.45 to 4. Even a 5% increase is impossible.

In this case, Chu Xiangqian's use of 10x leverage seems extremely risky, but in fact, the risk of 20x leverage is very small.

But the same thing still applies: Chu Xiangqian holds more than 2 million U.S. dollars, and it’s all cash.

Let alone 20 times leverage, even if it is 40 billion with 10 times leverage, few banks would be willing to take the risk if it is increased to 20 billion US dollars.

Look at the trouble England went through to borrow $10 billion.

Moreover, with this 10 billion, the exchange rate of the pound can be stabilized. This shows how valuable 10 billion is in this era.
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After settling their share of the dividends with other members of the poker club, Chu Xiangqian picked up the phone and called Juan Montero, the boss of Standard Chartered.

He was asked to personally transport 213 million US dollars in cash to the top of the mountain, and Juan was also asked to call the head of Standard Chartered's foreign exchange department to come over.

As soon as Juan heard it, he guessed that Chu Xiangqian might take action, and he was very excited.

In 62, after Chu Xiangqian sold his shares in the luggage company to several European luxury goods companies, Standard Chartered's 10% stake in the luggage company has at least doubled in value over the past two years.

And the annual dividend is no less than 50 pounds.

This is the most successful and safest investment Standard Chartered has made in recent years.

Of course, it would be more accurate to say that Chu Xiangqian was exchanging shares rather than buying them.

The shares of the luggage company he held were valued at 500 million pounds, and the pull handle patent was also valued by him at 500 million pounds.

This is equivalent to exchanging 1 million pounds and the patent for trolley bags for 4% to 7% of the shares of Burberry, Louis Vuitton, Hermès, Chanel and Armani.

Not to mention the annual dividends, the money earned from the rising share prices of these luxury companies alone is more than the original 1000 million pounds.

Not to mention the future market value of these luxury companies, which will range from tens of billions to as much as 4950 billion US dollars.

Chu Xiangqian's heart beats faster just thinking about the 6% stake he holds in Louis Vuitton.

After waiting for less than an hour, Juan Montero and his men arrived at the mountaintop villa in a low-key manner in four cars.

Chu Xiangqian personally stood at the door of the main building, took the two boxes of cash, and then invited Juan to take people to the guest rooms in the annex building to wait.

Juan was quite perceptive. He only left behind two persons in charge of the foreign exchange group and one car, and drove back the other three cars responsible for security.

Moreover, when they entered the annex building, they saw Yixiantian and Lao Jiang coming to greet the three of them at Chu Xiangqian's request. Not only did Juan's expression not change at all, he also took the initiative to say that he wanted to try Chu Xiangqian's good tea.

Yixiantian and Lao Jiang couldn't help but give Juan a thumbs up, thinking that this foreigner was really discerning and took the initiative to stay with them, who were responsible for watching the three of them.

Chu Xiangqian returned to the living room of the main building and began to distribute money.

(End of this chapter)