Reboot 2003

Chapter 198 106: Hedging (two in one)

Vaguely felt, as if a knot in my heart had been untied.

Although in fact there is no change, but the so-called troubles of youth are probably like this. Even if it has nothing to do with planning, it is not good to do it, but in short... In a good way, it may be a part of growth.

I was so happy when I got home that night, and I was so happy to go to school together the next day.On the roadside in early summer, a pair of childhood sweethearts happily chased and ran on the streets every day.

When returning home, Xu Lingling asked him to wait downstairs, and she went upstairs to get a small box, saying that it was the ice cream she learned to make with her grandma at noon.

When I went up the stairs, I opened it and saw that it was Grandma Xu’s old formula smoothie, but after I tasted it, it tasted icy and sweet. After I took a bite, the cooling feeling was so sweet that it hit my heart.

Chen Qin happily ate smoothies. When he returned home, Lao Chen was not here again tonight.

Turning on the computer before dinner, there was a lot of bad news that had never been seen before, pouring in through the mailbox.

"US left-wing media criticizes social media, claiming Weibo platform's position is not trustworthy..."

"The fund flow of your company's overseas public relations department is abnormal this month, and two insiders are suspected of transferring funds for public relations activities without authorization. The following is the investigation document."

"Please take a look at the results of this month's personnel survey. The competent rate of Galaxy Investment Shencheng headquarters is 71%."

"Yan Hai, a trader in the investment logistics department, disappeared today. Do you want to call the police? The leak of the investment plan last month may be related to this person..."

……

One email after another with bad news, the light brain returned to the skull, although nothing was delayed, but what was it like before?

Maybe... what should come will always come.

As if being poured by a basin of cold water, Chen Qin leaned on the back of the chair, grasping the small spoon in the plastic bowl, savoring the sweet and greasy taste.

In fact, you should have gotten used to it by now.

For the Internet, there is not much difference between elementary school students and adults.It is like a black box with dangerous and wonderful rules. Adults want to stick their thick fingers in, but their hands will be covered with blood, but elementary school students are different—of course, it cannot be said that elementary school students have any irreplaceable advantages. But a primary school student who has fully understood the internal structure of the black box can really feel like a fish in water here, and can do things that many adults and even big companies cannot do.

But people can’t live in the Internet world after all. Maybe he just wanted to hire a few people to help him make software at first, and he knows exactly what he needs to accomplish these goals, but if there are too many people, a company will be formed. Management will be required. Although he has tried his best to avoid those complicated physical processes, it seems that this day will eventually be accompanied by "growth" in front of him.

In addition, although the Internet has high value-but the money it makes comes from outside the Internet after all.

Some come from Internet users, some come from businessmen who covet the Internet, and some are even completely outside the borders of the Internet. It's just that when players in the Internet field gain enough advantages, they will always reach out there one day.

There was so much bad news that Chen Qin didn't know which one to read first, but he was very relaxed today.

I took a sip of smoothie and opened MSN. In the conference channel of Kuaikan, Gu Wenjie was talking to the heads of two M&A funds...

Compared with a few weeks ago, the atmosphere of their discussion today has also become a little lower, probably because Kuaikan Media's acquisition plan is also not going well.After greeting Chen Qin, the 'San Diego', Chen Qin probably knew what they were discussing...

Anyway...probably too slow.

Neople, the developer of DNF, just won the bet with NHN last year, and a great opportunity was in front of it. At that time, Yahoo refused to agree to the acquisition.

Years later, Weibo became popular, and Super Papao was also operating very well. Yahoo moved its mind and withdrew their veto. Unfortunately, these people are still unreliable, although Yahoo did not use their brains again during the second acquisition Unfortunately, because the delay was too long before, the conditions for the acquisition are now very poor.

Not only has NHN already entered the market, their asking price is very high, far exceeding expectations, and it is said that neople is approaching with other Chinese companies behind the scenes, raising the price very seriously.

After thinking twice, Gu Wenjie gave up the acquisition plan, holding the 1.1 million US dollars invested by Yahoo, and stood in the middle of the crossroads of the world economy in a daze.

"Wenjie, we don't care, but the contract between Yahoo and you involves equity pledge. To get back the pledged equity, you need to complete the acquisition target or pay more liquidated damages. If you return empty-handed, you can only accept Yahoo's conditional listing. Now, is this really okay?"

Shen Nanpeng seemed to put forward a bad hypothesis, Gu Wenjie frowned, of course he didn't intend to let this matter go.Fortunately, when Shen Nanpeng raised the question, he also thought of an idea for Gu Wenjie: "I have studied your terms, and Yahoo's condition is to 'promote the company's public offering'. That is to say, if we go to the IPO, but fail to succeed, Yahoo will not be able to do anything to you, so you can pretend to agree to their conditions..."

Gu Wenjie said depressedly: "Yahoo means to hand over the listing process to their people, and they will help the company go public."

"This... This is too arrogant, it almost means you have to give up the CEO to them." Shen Nanpeng frowned, and said hesitantly, "Well, I just gave a suggestion, but I thought it would be a good idea to agree to it before." It doesn't matter."

Just look at the media, and the same bad things keep happening. The 1.1 million was not spent, and it ended up being a mess. Originally planned to buy neople, and then pay the price after financing from Moyou. Now this last hope is gone.

"and many more."

At this moment, Peter Thiel suddenly interrupted the two of them. He was a foreigner, and he could have just come to negotiate with a Chinese agent, but he persisted in participating in the online meeting on the acquisition plan. Not on a conversational pace, basically just listening.

At this moment, he suddenly said to Shen Nanpeng:
"Neil, you have not seriously considered Santiago's suggestion. I have seen their operations in the Internet and financial fields, and I think his persistence is justified."

Shen Nanpeng replied directly in English: "Of course, I understand, and I respect their own listing strategy..."

"No, I mean, 'the economy is going to decline for a few years,' maybe that makes sense," said Peter Thiel. "I've been following the economic news since that day. The economic survey report, which said that the growth in house prices in the past six months has only been 0.3%, compared with the growth rate of 7% for the whole of previous years."

Shen Nanpeng was stunned for a moment: "So will there be an economic crisis next year?" Then he said it again in Chinese.

Peter Thiel shook his head: "I don't know, but I read some analysis articles, and I think San Diego believes that the possibility of an overall economic downturn exists. In order to avoid risks, it may not be a bad thing to avoid it for the time being."

Gu Wenjie was silent and didn't answer, Shen Nanpeng pondered: "But if this is the judgment, I feel a bit incomprehensible to this judgment."

Peter Thiel asked: "Why? If a financial crisis occurs, listed companies will suffer heavy losses. If this risk can be avoided, postponing listing is a very common measure to combat risks."

Shen Nanpeng considered the two people in front of him...or coupled with the level of basic financial knowledge of San Diego, tried to popularize science for them: "Listed companies do avoid risks, but for start-up companies, going public is too important. In the Internet field, the vast majority of investors come here for the purpose of exiting. If it cannot be listed, the company cannot obtain a large amount of financing to expand production, the management cannot be reorganized, and employees cannot increase their salaries due to contract restrictions. Competitors go public first, and a large amount of market capital may flow into the competitor..."

Gu Wenjie shook his head: "But if going public is bound to encounter an economic crisis, then why go public?"

"If this is just a small-scale and uncertain risk, then you should not give up listing. You think there will be a financial crisis, but when will it appear? If it doesn't come, do you have to wait forever?" Shen Nanpeng Said, "If you really feel that the risk is huge, then there are ways to avoid the risk other than going public."

"Xiaoqin, let's eat."

My mother's voice came from the kitchen, but Chen Qin put down the smoothie bowl and asked, "Hedge?"

"Yes, Mr. Sun from San Diego? I mean hedging risks with investment." Shen Nanpeng said, "If you think this thing has a high probability of happening, then you should use the corresponding investment to hedge risks, not for Avoid risks and refuse to go public, this is my suggestion.”

Peter Thiel hesitated: "But how can this be hedged? Do they want to spend money to short their own stocks after their stocks go public? This is too strange."

"The idea of ​​hedging is to purchase two parallel related but opposite products. On the one hand, they increase mutual liquidity through the correlation of the products, and on the other hand, they offset the risks through opposite forces." Shen Nanpeng continued to popularize science, "For example, if you are worried If the economy as a whole declines, you can directly short the entire market. As long as the decline of your own stocks is less than the decline of the market, you can reduce the risk. And if you are worried that the Internet industry will decline as a whole like the last bubble crisis, you can buy related futures to hedge. , even if you feel that the risk comes from Yahoo, then buy Yahoo stock directly, which is also a hedge...well, I am just giving an example."

Gu Wenjie laughed: "Neil, you put it that way, the [-] million US dollars is like a financial instrument that someone specially sent to us..."

"No, I didn't say anything." Shen Nanpeng also said with a smile, "It's a dangerous decision anyway, you should go to a professional financial consultant to solve this problem, not me who just An investor who retired from the Internet industry."

Peter Thiel was very interested: "I think this suggestion is very good. My first successful business also happened during the economic crisis. I have lingering fears about it. Now I also invest in many Internet projects. This kind of hedging project is good for me. It makes a lot of sense, if you guys want to look into this, I think I can talk to a couple of my hedge fund friends..."

Shen Nanpeng shook his head: "No, I think the most important thing now is, which direction do you think the risk comes from? Only when you know the source of the risk can you customize a perfect hedging strategy, but there are not many risk hedge funds in the market that have the same risk as yours. The same judgment about the future..."

"I think it's housing prices." Peter Thiel said, "House prices are a barometer of economic development. The financial crisis six years ago was triggered by the Internet bubble, but today's bubble seems to appear in the real estate industry. It's my guess."

Shen Nanpeng reminded: "You have asked the right person. I am still a director of a hotel chain. The housing price crisis may occur in many fields, but the Internet is usually a reservoir in traditional fields. The economic downturn caused by the real estate bubble has a negative impact on the economy." The internet shouldn't have much impact."

Peter Thiel urges: "But the dot-com bubble of 2000 still hit a lot of traditional companies, and I'm sure it wasn't indiscriminate, so tell us how to hedge, Neil."

"Let me say a few words." Santiago suddenly turned on the microphone, "I am Chen Aotian from Santiago, and it is my suggestion to avoid going public."

The two talked admiringly for a long time, and asked you what is your opinion along the topic? 'Santiago' said: "We agree with Mr. Shen's hedging ideas, but I don't think the source of the risk lies in the commodity market. According to my own knowledge, Meijian's financial company is a deep participant in the housing market. If the commodity housing market When the bubble bursts, the impact on the financial system will be greater than that of the Internet bubble, and the entire market will be impacted at that time, so can you find some hedging projects in this field?"

Gu Wenjie was stunned: "Wait a minute, do we really want to do this hedging?"

"Well, since it won't work if you don't go public, that's the only way to do it." Chen Aotian said, "Your pledge period of [-] million is one year, and it's idle anyway, so let's use it as a hedge now."

"All right……"

"Aqin, who are you talking to?"

Lou Xuemei opened the door and took a look inside: "I thought Lingling was there."

"It's nothing." Chen Qin got up to pack his things, "I'm chatting with netizens."

"You, you play your Three Kingdoms game every day, and you don't play with Lingling very much," Lou Xuemei nagged at him as she went back to the living room, "You two used to have such a good relationship."

"But I can't just sneak into a girl's bedroom every day in the middle of the night." Chen Qin said helplessly, "No matter how good the relationship is, childhood sweethearts can't live together."

"Do you know what a man and a woman are? You only think about these things when you are young..." Lou Xuemei sat at the dinner table and teased him, "Lingling is so pitiful, now that her parents are away, she is closest to you every day, you should be more Take care of her, and let her have more things, don't waste her kindness!"

"understood!"

Chen Qin sat down and remembered something, got up and went back to his room to bring out a small plastic bowl.

"What is this?"

"Your Lingling made ice cream."

"What did you add to the rice?"

"Didn't you say don't waste it..."

No matter what the purpose is, good intentions will always be rewarded, hard work will basically be rewarded, and careful implementation of the plan will always pay off. After eating, the messy days continue——

For an elementary school student who has little control, perhaps this kind of "ceiling" really exists, and a company is often very successful as long as it is alive... But this night, Chen Qin was thinking about the bowl of ice cream mixed with rice. I vaguely felt something—as if a knot in my heart had been opened, everything seemed unimportant.

After replying to some emails that night, Chen Qin suddenly sent an email to Lao Xu, whom he had not had much contact with recently. Lao Xu had recently been busy running business for the Flash Empire, and was starting a business with a group of young people as a director of Facebook. However, after getting the instructions, I ran to Google headquarters a few times, and suddenly got close to Google.

Google probably finds it inexplicable, but it is also understandable. After the Getai en transaction, digital music has become a mess, but as an accessory of the social network, its popularity is very hot. Under the hard promotion of Google, the registered users of this website are now It's over 3000 million and counting, and overall Google is pretty happy with the deal.

And this time when Lao Xu came suddenly, it also made them have some other fantasies-they knew that Santiago had recently set up a Weibo website. Trouble, it seems that a local company with sufficient energy is really needed to help operate. It just happened that the relationship between Yahoo and San Diego is very tense recently. Isn't Google's opportunity coming?

These Google engineers are probably really jealous of social networks. Among the three old acquaintances who had a meeting last year, except for Sergey Brin who was busy with something recently, Schmidt and Sandberg personally went to surround the old acquaintance. Xu spins around, offering delicious food and drink, and tells everything he wants to know.When Lao Xu asked about the progress of their digital copyright legislation, the people at Google told him the truth - saying that the progress was not bad.

It is inconvenient to disclose the details, but this is true. It is true that Getai.com has completed the transaction now, but Weibo.com is also a member of the Internet camp. Google's words are indeed true.

Of course, the people at Google probably felt that such a statement might not be sincere. After Lao Xu expressed his great interest in this career that day, Google probably took it down.

Two days later, Sergey Brin, who hadn't come before, suddenly called Lao Xu: "We have a semi-public meeting related to digital copyright. If you want to participate in the audition, you can come to Massachusetts..."

At that time, Lao Xu hadn't realized that these people were playing for real: "Okay, but who are you going to meet this time?"

"It's Democratic candidate Barack Obama!"

Lao Xu vaguely felt that the matter was not simple, so he reported it within the group, and later knew that this matter was even more difficult.

He immediately flew east, and after meeting Sergey Brin, who was wearing big slippers and a T-shirt, the famous progressive politician met.

The process of the meeting was very simple. After all, the meeting was not a process, but a part of the result. Then, only a week after the meeting, a newly public law on the right to broadcast on the Internet was promulgated-this law clearly stated that The "safe harbor principle" means that as long as the content platform can actively cooperate with the copyright owner to eliminate the copyright content uploaded by the user, it can avoid being held accountable in the copyright lawsuit. On the day the news appeared, Google's stock rose sharply. The problem in the mind of the service provider has been settled.

However, Lao Xu's harvest is not very great——

Although Sergey Brin was wearing flip flops, the meeting was indeed a conversation between Google and the Democratic Party politicians. Old Xu served as an escort, and then had a few words with the politician surnamed Austria in an informal capacity. , in addition to the 'Internet Copyright Controversy' in the topic, it also talked about the unfair treatment of foreigners in the field of intellectual property inventions.

It's a pity that the other party is very wary of this "San Diego" company of unknown origin, probably because the reputation of this website in the political field is not very good, so the politician surnamed Ao just politely paid a few words and recommended a reputation to Lao Xu Good IP lawyers, but these apparently don't help --

As far as the only advantage is concerned, it seems that I got his phone number. Although the public relations department immediately wanted to use the money to try to make political donations directly to the Democratic Party after returning to the group, but Mr. Chen asked them to stay calm for now. Another week later, there was new news on Kuaikan Media's small overseas channel.

On this day, it seemed that Shen Nanpeng suddenly called Gu Wenjie——

"Wen Jie, I recently found a colleague I used to know when I was working at Deutsche Bank. He is selling products related to home loan investments. He said that he would like to talk with us today..."

(End of this chapter)