Reboot 2003

Chapter 200 108: Negative-sum game (three in one)

Edward looked like a pillow thrown to the side of his head just after dozing off.

Not only is the fund management fee very low, but without saying a few words, he also said that the management fee can also be negotiated. It seems that his conditions may continue to drop.

After hearing about the hedging period of Tianchao Company, he also said that the fund's operating cycle can be shortened. Although this condition is very strange, Shen Nanpeng gave him a strange look after hearing it, but in short, it is also a good condition.

So basically everyone has no opinion—even from the perspective of the future, it may be more reliable to go to Berry or the Paulson Fund that appeared in "The Big Short", but since you only want to buy CDS, then It is enough to find a financial institution that complies with ISDA rules and is cheap enough.

If there is any problem, it is probably because this Hispanic man named Edward seems a little anxious.

Perhaps seeing that the investor was a little interested, Edward eagerly urged the other party to finalize the order-it is impossible to think about an investment order of hundreds of millions, but he seemed to think so, and he took out The documents that had been copied in advance were taken out and Shen Nanpeng signed them on the spot. The body language when urging was very forceful, and there seemed to be bloodshot eyes hidden under the blue pupils.

"The opportunity is right in front of you, gentlemen. Even if you think I am a fund manager...salesman with unknown origins, please sign the contract of intent first so that I can buy more CDS now."

Shen Nanpeng was amused by him: "Anyway, I can only represent myself. Jim and Peter need to think about it before coming to you. Besides, the composition of Jim's money is a bit complicated. He needs to consider many aspects Factors to finalize what to do..."

"You can always think of a way. You can bring in part of the money first. Whether it's a pledge or a loan, the opportunity is fleeting..."

As he spoke, he also felt that this was a bit wrong: "Okay, I'm sorry, but please take a serious look at the documents in your hands. The current opportunity is fleeting, and the collapse of the housing market is just around the corner. If we miss this window in front of us, Then it’s too late.”

Shen Nanpeng looked at him carefully: "We are still waiting and watching. To be honest, we don't know much about the housing market and CDS."

Edward became excited again: "House prices have stopped rising, and then they will enter a downward channel immediately, and everything will collapse at that time! Do you know what the shape of its curve is now? Housing prices have been stagnant for nearly a year. Please see this This information, it will drop immediately, now is the deadline, when all loans will default, and the number of CDS is limited!"

He was very excited, and other people in the coffee shop cast dissatisfied glances. Gu Wenjie and Peter Thiel shook their heads, but they barely finished listening. It looks suspicious at first glance. After all, today's China investment market is full of scammers. Seeing such irrational fanatical fund managers and vigilant investors will feel unreliable.

But that evening, after reading the documents Edward and Lippmann had provided, asking lawyers, and investigating all the details about the CDS, the doubts were ultimately unfounded.

"I think everything else is fine, why is he in such a hurry?"

"Maybe the opportunity now is really important. House prices have hardly risen this year, and the increase in the second half of last year was much slower than the previous two years."

Peter Thiel is bullish on the deal, and he seems ready to invest.

Shen Nanpeng is still hesitating: "Jim, do we want to sign an investment contract with him now?"

Gu Wenjie shook his head: "I...I don't know, Aotian, tell me."

'Santiago' replied: "I think so too, but we don't need to worry too much."

Shen Nanpeng has doubts: "But he said that the window period is coming soon, I think it is a bit alarmist ... and just now he said that your funds can be withdrawn next year, but as far as I know, most of the current CDS are four-year , does he just believe that this crisis will materialize within a year?"

Santiago also said: "Maybe there is such a judgment, so I don't think we need to worry, and it won't hurt to investigate more."

"You mean..."

"Take your time, make a good background check, contact the custodian bank, and compare the prices more. It's not impossible for us to set up our own fund...Mr. Shen, weren't you an investment manager before? Now that you have to do it again Old business, why not start with the most profitable one?"

"Boss Chen, you are flattering me too much. After all, I have been in China for so long, and I don't know anything about these insurance businesses. I think it's better for us to cooperate with the local fund..."

……

After discussing it like this, after the end, Gu Wenjie almost made up his mind: "Then Aotian, I will go to the company tomorrow to prepare the bill, do you think it's okay?"

The two discussed the next countermeasures in private: "Well, do some separation of property rights, and then set up a fund account in the name of the acquisition, so that even if you make money, you only need to pay back a small amount according to the bet. "

Gu Wenjie suggested: "Then I will set up a two-person management committee, and you and I will split the proceeds in half. What do you think?"

"Okay, then I will join in the name of Santiago."

"Ah? Is this okay?"

“San Diego is practically my sole proprietorship.”

Gu Wenjie nodded, not realizing what this meant for a while, originally he wanted his old partner to sign his name, but since the other party is still so careful, he can only let him.

He just asked again: "Okay, then... Let's take a quick look. It has been three years since its establishment. Are you sure it will be listed now?"

But Chen Aotian said with a smile: "When is this, such a trivial matter as going public, whatever."

Of course, this is not a trivial matter—in any case, this is a company that he has put so much effort into building. How many people are busy running business day and night, researching market reports, and customizing promotion plans for large customers, although... probably it is for Money, but now it’s all before the end—no, to be precise, it’s already reached a stage, so of course we can’t just give up.

And going public...Although it is not so beautiful in itself, for an enterprise, it may also be used as a ceremony of "returning the enterprise to the market". For an enterprise, the light of a person is always short and lasting It's small, once the people who lead it start to get tired or satisfied, going public is still an option that can be justified to anyone.

Perhaps it is indeed time.

At this time, Gu Wenjie vaguely felt the melancholy before fate came, and then immediately started to act.

It just so happened... After June, things on Weibo.com have slowed down. Although Galaxy Software has been a bit chaotic lately, the marketing team transferred from Kuaikan Media and Kuaibo.com has recently brought in the daily operations of Weibo.com on track.

Moyou.com is busy operating the Three Kingdoms Online, which originally seemed to be a bit uneven. After all, the content of the initial version is not rich enough, and the competition in the same period is also fierce enough. Mr. Chen, who originally agreed to help the game improve the charging system, also has other things to do I'm busy, I can't manage that much for the time being... But the popularity of the game continues to rise after it's launched. With the recent high-level infighting, some promotional resources that originally belonged to the super running have been tilted to the Three Kingdoms online side, which instead makes the game popular in the next generation. The popularity of half a year has become more and more popular, and even the revenue that had been declining has re-entered the growth channel.

As for looking at the media...

Maybe the high-level internal fighting is a bit big, but no matter how high the shareholding ratio of Yahoo is, it is completely an outsider to the internal personnel power of the company. Today, Gu Wenjie in the company still keeps his word. There is no need for Gu Wenjie to do too many things by himself.

Just to meet the listing requirements, Gu Wenjie needs to further step down from the position of non-affiliated enterprises in the process of shareholding restructuring to avoid the relevant supervision regulations of "benefit transfer".

Therefore, Gu Wenjie was able to spare more time and came to Los Angeles, the center of Meijian real estate transactions, met with Peter Thiel and Shen Nanpeng, and began to investigate the specific strategies of this wave of "hedging transactions"...

But from what they looked at...it seemed that the conditions of the Edward Fund were the best.

The financial market is also a highly subdivided market, and people here perform their duties—a large number of talents proficient in mathematics and economics are sent in, like consumables, as gears and parts that directly increase the value of wealth. Profits were drawn from all over the world to that one street in Manhattan.

For outsiders, it is a better idea to believe in the credit of this platform and then entrust their wealth to professionals. If you have to operate it yourself, it does not seem too complicated, just choose some of your own financial management projects That's it.If investors know what they need, many problems will become much simpler.

Now they need to buy the CDS - which requires having the brokers of the banks and insurance companies willing to enter into ISDA contracts with them as counterparties and someone who is qualified to sit at the poker table as their agent.

During this period, Gu Wenjie visited several funds, including the Paulson Fund, which his old partner is very optimistic about. However, although these old funds have the same opinions as his, the operation methods are not much smarter, and the fees are very expensive. In fact, it is not much different from the Deutsche Bank subsidiary fund.

One day Gu Wenjie said to his old partner: "That Edward is urging us again. He threatened us that the fund window will close on the first of next month."

"Let him close it. If he dares to close it, we dare to find someone else."

"Speaking of which, real estate is really hot recently. I went to inquire about short real estate CDS, and along the way I met more than a dozen salespeople who advised me to invest in various real estate products."

He also said: "However, people in Meilijian have a lot of money. I have [-] million US dollars in my hand. I thought I was already rich, but here, I feel like I am a first-time winner. Like a kid with pocket money..."

But his old partner comforted him: "Don't worry, you will be richer than any of them in a short time."

Another day, when Gu Wenjie was on the phone with him, he heard the sound of a little girl playing in the background.

"Is that your daughter, Aotian?"

"Uh... yeah."

The little girl was still talking in the back, and heard Chen Aotian telling her to keep her voice down, maybe he also has his own family, Gu Wenjie thought at that time.

Gu Wenjie asked him: "We went to find the Berry Fund you were talking about. Is it actually the Scion Fund you were talking about?"

"Probably so..."

"We went to him and said we were interested in CDS, but he didn't admit it at first. He seemed to think that we were investors pretending to test him, insisting that they mainly bought other financial products, haha!"

"Most people are still bullish on the housing market right now, so this is our opportunity..."

"Speaking of which, are we really not going to invest in that Edward Fund? Sure enough, that person still hasn't closed the investment window, but he always said that there will be news in the next few days, and we will regret it if we don't make a decision.

"Don't worry about him, let's continue with our process. Speaking of which, weren't you calculating liquidated damages two days ago? How much liquidated damages can we get if we buy CDS with all the money?"

"If you buy 100 million CDS..." Gu Wenjie hesitated, "Theoretically, you can get [-] billion liquidated damages, if the economic crisis you mentioned really happens."

But he also said: "But CDS are all four-year, plus the agency fee of the bank, 1 million can only earn 10 billion. Now I understand why Lippmann and Paulson don't allow us to exit at any time. But I still don't understand, Edward Fund only lasts for one year, why both you and Nanpeng don't think he is a liar?"

"Because he has a very radical view on the market, as long as the economic crisis breaks out within one year, he will not have to pay the insurance premium for the next year."

"And what happens to his security deposit?"

"He should have increased leverage."

There are two old drivers who are familiar with the road, and Gu Wenjie is also relieved. In this way, they are doing the work at hand in an orderly manner. During the period, as the work progresses, the wait-and-see stage of this investment is almost over, and the time has entered July. , Another summer is coming.

In the scorching weather, Los Angeles, which is about four hours’ drive from Silicon Valley, is full of feasting. Due to the impact of the Iranian nuclear issue, international oil prices fluctuate sharply, and primary school students are about to take final exams—of course, this is an insignificant matter, but Gu Wenjie and his two companions They waited for two days for this matter, but their investment partner disappeared for two days for some reason.

"Old Chen, you're finally here! Why haven't you heard from me these two days? Ask the people in your company and they don't know..."

Of course, after all, I am used to this kind of thing. Chen Aotian is haunted, and this time he also said that he is fine, but after contacting the recent news, Gu Wenjie is also a little worried: "Are you really okay? The recent news in Los Angeles said that your company has a problem recently. ..."

Chen Aotian, who only had a voice, asked easily: "What's wrong? I haven't seen what's going on over there yet."

In the conference channel, Peter Thiel held a newspaper in front of the camera, and the newspaper had a big headline: "Technology company management problems are hotly debated: China's emerging Internet companies are involved in corruption scandals"

He was talking about his Galaxy software——Recently, there seems to be something wrong with Galaxy Software. A company corruption case was reported to the newspaper by a third-party supervisory agency. There seems to be a lot of conflict between the controlling party and the management. Recently, it seems that it is preparing to Go to court...

"It doesn't matter." Chen Aotian didn't think there was a problem at all, "Speaking of the Edward Fund, what do you think?"

The faces of the three people in the channel became even more strange: "Originally, we have almost seen it, and we will wait for you to decide, and then vote together."

Chen Aotian's tone sounded very relaxed: "Then vote. Anyway, all the investigations have been done, so vote according to the negotiated conditions."

However, after finishing the sentence, none of the three answered. Shen Nanpeng looked at the screen and held his chin, wondering if he was laughing. Peter Thiel has always paid attention to health preservation, but today he cut a cigar and swallowed clouds in front of the screen Spit fog.

Gu Wenjie said: "Recently Edward Ralph jumped off the building."

Chen Aotian's voice sounded very surprised: "Jump off the building?"

"Yes." Peter Thiel said, and put another newspaper in front of the screen, which said that the recorder of Deutsche Bank was involved in the theft of internal company secrets, was involved in a judicial lawsuit, and recently committed suicide by jumping off the building of the Xiangjiang branch.

Chen Aotian seemed a little disapproving: "This is too much to bear the blow, he has set up his own stove, why care about such a reputation, isn't it good to wash his hands after this wave is over?"

Peter Thiel said: "No, in fact, this is not the main reason."

Gu Wenjie said: "Because the Fed recently announced a rate hike, but did not mention the time for the next rate hike, it seems that this cycle of rate hikes is over."

Shen Nanpeng continued to explain: "Stop raising interest rates is good for the real estate market. Since July, the real estate market has begun to pick up. A large number of investors in the Edward Fund withdrew their funds. The fund company announced asset restructuring, and then Edward jumped off the building."

Chen Aotian seemed dumbfounded: "Then what should we do?"

"A bankrupt investment company has a large number of real estate CDS to sell at a low price. I have already negotiated with them to purchase 50 million US dollars of real estate CDS insurance at 1% of the cost." Shen Nanpeng said, "This is all thanks to Chen Foresight, sir, if we hadn't listened to you before and invested directly in their fund... It's a little immoral to think so, but now we've taken advantage of it."

"what?"

Chen Aotian himself seemed very surprised, anyway, this Edward’s fund is finished—maybe he should have thought of it long ago, among the investors engaged in real estate short selling, there are bank managers like Lippman who earn commissions, and there are Berry who pretend to be doing it. Investors in other businesses, such as Paulson, are still waiting for opportunities. Edward is much more radical than them, but he came too early. He seems to be inspired by Lippmann to start CDS trading, but he was in the CDS last year. He bought CDS, and he has almost run out of ammunition and food this year, but he still wants to continue buying.

In the end, it seemed that they were the ones who entered the arena after taking advantage of them...

"Mr. Chen, Mr. Gu, how should we divide these CDS with an insured amount of US$9 million?"

Chen Aotian seemed very happy: "Then you two choose, Wen Jie and I will share the rest after the selection, anyway these are definitely not enough."

Shen Nanpeng asked: "So do you want to continue buying?"

"Of course, according to the ratio we studied before, even if there is no such 50% discount in the future, we will not lose money."

"Okay, but..."

Shen Nanpeng pondered, and this time it was Gu Wenjie who asked, "But the Fed has raised interest rates, when do you think the bubble will burst?"

"House prices have reached their peak, and they should explode soon." Boss Chen said.

The three fell silent. Peter Thiel took a puff of his cigar and said, "I'm sorry, but I still don't understand. In fact, I have already given Edward a sum of money before. I think what he said is very reasonable. He said Real estate has reached its peak and should be falling soon, I think he is very correct, but the fact is that he jumped off the building."

Boss Chen asked: "So?"

"I would like to subscribe for around 2000 million worth of CDS insurance as a hedge, but I won't need more."

Saying that, among the windows of the four participants, Peter Thiel's window disappeared.

Shen Nanpeng also said: "I think Lao Chen's judgment is very good. We can continue to discuss issues in the economic and technological fields in the future. I personally admire your vision, but I am just an ordinary investor. I think this field It’s still too dangerous for me. I can subscribe for CDS between 2000 million and 4000 million. The specific amount can be judged by you, but in addition to the liquidation assets of the Edward Fund, I don’t think I will buy it again. I'm sorry."

Saying that, Shen Nanpeng's window also disappeared.

Only the two founders of Kuaikan Media were left on the channel. Boss Chen who just arrived took the initiative to ask, "Then Wenjie, do you want to buy it?"

"Actually, I also think it's time to stop." Gu Wenjie said, "Real estate has indeed reached an inflection point, but it has been stagnant for a year. It has not fallen in the past 60 years. No one knows what will happen now. Maybe it is not at all. It will not fall, it will only remain at this level, waiting for the risk to be slowly digested by inflation."

"Then what are you going to do?"

"I don't know." Gu Wenjie said, "But I have never really had any ideas. When we started our business together, it was mainly based on your ideas. Although you didn't come up with much ideas, if you want to continue this time, I still agree." Be the same as you, as long as you think there is no problem..."

But the old partner on the other side of the screen asked him: "Speaking of which, how is your work going public recently?"

"Didn't Galaxy Investment tell you? The shareholding restructuring has ended recently. Yahoo's actions are very fast. It is said that it will be listed at the end of this year at the earliest, and at the latest in March next year. The underwriters have also decided..."

Speaking of Kuaikan Media, Gu Wenjie sighed again: "It's pretty quick to say, three years is over so soon, I still remember when you talked to Ali, and I talked with you for most of the night. It's on, haha."

"That's right, it's really fun to start a business." Chen Aotian said, "But people will always grow, and it's time for us to enter the next stage..."

"You mean investing?"

"No, it doesn't really matter." He said, "But recently, I suddenly feel that growing up is probably like this. Seeing too many messy and annoying things will always make people want to see what it looks like behind it."

Then he said amazingly: "This time the real estate market is short, I have raised almost 5 million US dollars of capital, to be honest it is still quite hanging, if you think it is dangerous, enough capital for hedging is enough, early exit is not a bad thing. "

"What about you? Do you just buy this kind of CDS?"

"It's about the same, but the financial market is quite different from our Internet field. After all, this is not entrepreneurship..."

"Did you mean 'zero-sum game'?" Gu Wenjie has already reacted, "In the Internet field, we are pioneers, we create value, and others want to get profits from us, but in the financial field, our The profit is equal to the loss of others."

But Chen Aotian said to him: "No... now we have taken away the fulcrum of the transaction and smashed the superstructure of the leverage. This is called a 'negative sum game'. If you have to say it, it is actually a bit uneconomical. Originally, we wanted Shen Nan to My friend helped us operate it, but unfortunately he probably thought it was too immoral."

Gu Wenjie didn't know what to say anymore: "So what do you want to do?..."

"Of course it is to make money. Since I want to make money, this is the fastest way in the world today. I have asked someone to find a relationship in the past two days, and I have fully understood what to do after that." Chen Aotian on the other end of the video call said easily Then, he said to Gu Wenjie, "If you want to continue, I can recommend two people for you to meet tomorrow, and then you will know what we should do."

(End of this chapter)