Reboot 2003

Chapter 216 124: Primacy Effect (Two in One)

Time is gradually entering February, and the last winter vacation of elementary school is coming.

The Spring Festival is coming, and the weather is good and bad.

Unknowingly, many things have become different. For example, packages signed by "Chimei JD.com" appeared in the post office, the Galaxy Movie client was gradually installed in the Internet cafes near the school, and occasionally I went to the canteen outside my home. On the same row of shelves, I saw three beverage packages with Yao Nabei’s image printed on them.

On the afternoon of the exam day, a piece of forwarded news appeared in Chen Qin’s mailbox:

"A financial institution controlled by hackers caused Goldman Sachs to lose $700 billion!" 》

He had a vague feeling that something big was about to happen, but he still had to take the exam. He was sitting in the exam room thinking about all the messy things. Suddenly he saw Xu Lingling in the front row turning around quite far away from him. He didn't know what he wanted to express. , winking at him.

At first Chen Qin thought she wanted a cheat sheet?Looking at Teacher Xiao Meng who was sitting on the podium with a straight face, he still had a headache, until he saw today's small reading question——
-
Material 1: Lyrics of "Where Are We Going, Dad": There is a cool guy in my family/He has three heads and six arms and is invulnerable/His palms are a little thick/He took me and taught me how to walk -
What can you feel from the lyrics of the above materials?
In recent years, this kind of popular content has been included in a lot of exam papers. Last year's song "Invisible Wings" will even be included in the college entrance examination essay in two years. Speaking of which, who wrote this paper?I played it on Children’s Day in June that year. Do you like this song so much?

There is nothing much to say about the examination process. Once you leave the examination room, the winter vacation begins.

Next, it was time to walk briskly home with the answer in mind.

As a result, at the school gate, I saw Principal Lu already waiting there. He came towards me from a distance and said with a bright red face: "Lingling, your father is back."

"Huh? When?"

"Just today, let's go and go with your Uncle Lu to pick up the wind and wash away the dust for Dad!"

It was a bit sudden, after all, Lao Xu suddenly returned to China - of course, I had known about this for a long time. Before New Year's Day, Lao Xu said that he would have a holiday during the New Year, but he suddenly came back today. And what does this matter have to do with Principal Lu?
Seeing Lao Bai in Principal Lu's car, he said that the leader wanted to pick up Lao Xu, so the two children went up together. When they arrived at Longshan Hotel, a large group of people in suits and ties surrounded Lao Xu, talking loudly in front of the hotel, Principal Lu When I picked someone up, I couldn't squeeze into the circle for three minutes... It wasn't the first time.

But...it's definitely time.

As the Spring Festival is approaching, Goldman Sachs's stock plummeted. Not only did it lose all its previous gains, it also fell an additional 10%. Although it did nothing wrong, another subprime mortgage company on the market was in trouble.

This is not the first time this has happened. Many companies involved in subprime loans have had financial problems before. However, compared to those small shrimps, New Century has a high market share and is the second largest company in Meili Jian. The subprime financial institution has problems this time, and the problems are more serious.

In addition, the housing price trend has reached a peak visibly, and the subprime mortgage problem was already very serious last year. This is just because these companies used various methods to cover up these problems in their quarterly financial audits, but as the At the end of 2006, the annual audit was a hurdle they couldn't get around. In short, the problems were exposed one after another, and the subprime mortgage crisis was officially revealed.

At this moment, Goldman Sachs should not have been affected.

After all, subprime lending is a game of risk-taking. Goldman Sachs’ main business is neither housing mortgages nor subprime loans. Although it operates an asset packaging and underwriting business, it is in the outer reaches of the seismic circle anyway. What’s more, they seem to He realized the problem early - Chen Qin didn't remember the subprime mortgage crisis very clearly. He only knew that Goldman Sachs survived in the end and suffered relatively light losses.

And when a disaster is approaching, sometimes you don’t have to run a lot, as long as you can run faster than your peers, you can survive. Goldman Sachs reacted very early, and they seem to be thinking of ways to improve the problem and take advantage of the information gap. The crisis is being dealt with intensively. Taking back the CDS in Chen Qin's hands is one of the methods. It is not difficult to solve this problem.

But I ran into that short-selling report - although the financial crisis has not yet happened, that short-selling report tied many problems on the path to Goldman Sachs. Now Goldman Sachs' stock price is falling, and their spokesperson can't even defend it. The company is solving the problem and can only argue that the financial risk is not fatal. The liquidity crisis written in some reports will not happen at all. They can only say this, otherwise no one will be willing to take over the CDO in their hands.

Of course this is not important in itself.

Just like Gu Wenjie said, what can a short selling quota of 200 million US dollars do?Even if you increase leverage and earn ten times, it is still a drop in the bucket compared to the CDS you have on hand.

However, thanks to these violent companies, the ABX index has begun to fall recently...

The ABX index is a comprehensive index of subprime mortgage derivative bonds. In layman's terms, it is a comprehensive index that reflects the value of subprime mortgage bonds. When the full value is 100, the value of the related derivatives is 100%. When it falls to 0, the derivatives will become worthless. It’s not worth it. For short sellers, the opposite is true——

Now Red Water Fund has insured about 120 billion related bonds. In early January, the ABX index fell to 95. At that time, the value of the CDS held by Red Water Fund was equivalent to 120% of 5 billion... In other words, It was close to getting back its original investment.

Although it later rose back to 100, as the time gradually approached February and other violent subprime mortgage companies gradually emerged, the recent ABX index has dropped to 2, and the assets of Red Water Fund directly exceeded 80 billion US dollars. This is comparable to The drop in Goldman Sachs' stock was far more exciting.

The short-selling report released this time seems to be a sniper at Goldman Sachs, but in fact it is aimed at the subprime mortgage market. If there is a thunderstorm in subprime loans, what will happen next?This question originally seemed to take time for the market to think about, but the short-selling report had already written out the answer—default rates would increase and CDOs would become worthless.

As for Goldman Sachs, it's definitely not a good thing - to be fair, Goldman Sachs is not the institution most affected by the subprime mortgage problem even now, but there is a theory in communication called the 'primacy effect', which refers to the impact of first impressions on the public. It is so deep-rooted that even if there are stronger proximate causes, the primary cause will be easily associated with it.

The stock value itself does not simply reflect the value of the company's assets or prospects, but the "value of the company's assets or prospects in the eyes of the public." That sharp knife was swung against the subprime mortgage market, although it was actually swung towards the entire market. Yes, but it really struck a chord with Goldman Sachs.

As a result, Goldman Sachs is currently in dire straits. Although the situation is not that bad at the moment, after all, the current subprime mortgage crisis has only just begun to emerge, and the big banks in China are even still buying CDOs.

But I heard that Goldman Sachs was in trouble, and I somewhat realized that something was wrong.As the previous round of turmoil subsided, and the situation further changed...

In short, Lao Xu can go home normally to celebrate the New Year.

Principal Lu was a little over-prepared. This time he directly booked a banquet at Longshan Hotel. A rustic banner saying 'Warmly welcome Mr. Xu to return to China for the New Year' was hung above his head. I don't know whose money it was spent on. .

Chen Qin felt a little bad at first. Nowadays, these people in the media emphasize an earthy aesthetic. Recently, the Chinese media even called him a 'madman'. Fortunately, they didn't call him a magic bird.But if you think about it carefully, the name Chen Aotian is already quite vulgar. It was originally just a company nickname that was randomly chosen. If you want to change it now, it seems a bit too late... Speaking of which, what kind of online article is Long Aotian?Maybe I’ll have to make up for it as a reward in the future…

But for his definition, those Americans are more talkative.

Recently, Goldman Sachs has been hit by a thunderstorm. He himself...or to be precise, it should be Chen Aotian on the Internet, and he has naturally become a person at the forefront of the storm.

To the public, he may still be relatively far away, but this time he caused such a big confusion. At least people in the market were very concerned about him. They began to investigate Chen Aotian's details, but naturally nothing was found... This It’s not surprising. After all, it’s common for people in finance to be reluctant to disclose their identities. Before the 95s, the financial fund industry was dominated by experienced star investors. After 95, hedge funds and quantitative trading emerged, represented by long-term capital. Hedge fund companies have begun to promote scientific trading. They use mathematical models as their main means of trading decision-making, but strictly keep personal information confidential.

However, after all, Chen Qin is not a rookie on Wall Street, and he is not an unknown person in the Internet field. These Meilijian media searched all the way and found that in those companies and organizations, they could not find any clear evidence of Chen Aotian holding any visible position. example of……

So these people seemed to position him as a 'hacker', saying that he used some means to cause Goldman Sachs to suffer huge asset losses. Isn't this a hacker?
This is actually quite dangerous, and as the matter has developed so far, he has not yet received his own money, and Goldman Sachs has been troubled by him. It is indeed a relief, but the matter itself has not shown any necessity - — Even if his short-selling report added fire to the oil-spill market after the thunder in the new century, as a reborn person, since he knows that thunder will happen sooner or later, maybe he can just hide behind the scenes and make a fortune in silence. That’s it…

Wouldn't it be useful?
It's okay for his own account to be blocked. It is expected to attract attention. If it can be over like this, it is of course the best situation.

But the preparations that need to be made cannot be left behind. The time has come and everything that needs to be done has been done. The next step is to wait for the results.Speaking of which... although he is not a real hacker himself, the name sounds pretty cool. After all, even outside the IT field, calling someone a hacker is not a curse word in most situations. …

Thinking like this, Lao Xu finally came over and sat next to him in a coat. Xu Lingling was fiddling with the two melon seeds on the plate in boredom. When Lao Xu sat down, she hugged his arm and laughed.

"I don't know where this group of people got the news from. I haven't even told you yet... Xiaoqin, where are your parents? And Lingling's grandma..."

At this moment, Lao Xu's face looked red and his energy had returned. He must have been in a good mood recently.

Chen Qin said he didn't know. They were picked up by Principal Lu after school, but then he asked: "Uncle Xu, how much does this banquet cost?"

"It seems like tens of thousands of yuan. I'm not sure. They can also pay in US dollars. This group of people invited me to dinner out of nowhere. I just rushed to pay the money... By the way, someone will give you something in the future. You two Remember not to accept..."

Compared with the last New Year's Day, Lao Xu is much more relaxed, and he is indeed quite rich now. The salary given to him by San Diego has not been increased for a long time, but he still has the salary from Facebook and San Diego Foundation, and a large salary. He holds tens of millions of dollars in Tencent and Google stocks through funds, and he is probably starting to become familiar with this scene.

Thinking about it, he should probably be familiar with this kind of life - Chen Qin thought, but someone immediately came after him and talked to Lao Xu -

"This is Miss Yan from TCL, who works as a marketing manager in Gan Province..."

"Nice to meet you……"

Old Xu got up and chatted with others, which was originally quite boring, but Miss Yan seemed to have talked to Old Xu about the mobile phone——

It's normal to think about it. Large companies with money are already very popular, and they are also very popular for spending lavishly. But when it comes to real industries, local governments will be reluctant to do anything when they see it.

Recently, the development of Galaxy software has been tepid, and the sales of Galaxy mobile phones are not bad. However, after gradually passing through a period of increasing production capacity, it can be regarded as passing the test of the market. Now that the domestic 3G era is approaching, although the mobile phone industry does not know what will happen in the future. Those things that happened, but almost all of them were full of energy and wanted to give it a try.

This is why Miss Yan from TCL is here.

"I have used your company's Galaxy phone and it feels quite groundbreaking. I think we can cooperate in the future..."

"Oh...by the way, what's the name of your company, HTC?"

"It's TCL. Mr. Xu, you are so noble and forgetful. HTC is a mobile phone company in Baodao. Our TCL is in Pengcheng, and ZTE and Huawei are both leaders in communication technology. Now the industry chain is very mature. For smartphone originals The upstream and downstream suppliers are also very familiar with it..."

"I know, I used to buy color TVs from TCL... But when it comes to mobile phones, that's not my business. I'm afraid I can't give you an answer..."

"It doesn't matter. Let's get to know each other. After all, we are likely to cooperate in the future! But if you can, please also share your future business needs. We can also make some targeted preparations..."

"This is already a cliché. The main thing is that you need to have a certain technical threshold, R&D strength and patent resources. Marketing and production capacity are not the key..."

"Actually, our company also has R&D and patent partners. We are a long-term partner with Alstom in France. Alstom recently merged with Melician-Lucent. As far as I know, Lucent has also expressed its willingness to cooperate with your company. …”

Chen Qin listened behind the scenes and found out that this company is quite reliable - after all, it involves traditional manufacturing. Finding upstream and downstream partners and sellers at the wine table is also one of the important links in traditional production organization. Lao Xu He agreed humbly, without making a clear promise.

This is probably the essence of business, and there is really nothing complicated about it.

Of course, the family gets along well, and there is no need to think about so many things now. After a while, Grandma Xu came. A group of business elites in suits and leather shoes came in to wish her good luck. The old man looked quite confused. At this time, Old Xu came out of the crowd. He came out and helped Grandma Xu into the hotel lobby. Among the splendid flowers surrounded by smiling faces and eyes, Lao Xu looked a little tipsy.

At the dinner table, Lao Chen didn't talk much today. He sat at the wine table and laughed with him, while Lao Xu and Principal Lu laughed and talked loudly.

Principal Lu asked about what happened in Lin'an some time ago. He seemed to have heard some rumors. Lao Xu looked at his neighbor Xiao Chen and said that he had encountered some trouble during that time. Thanks to Xiao Chen's quick response, he also said that he was away all year round. , Xiao Chen is still a sensible child...

It didn't say anything that needed to be kept secret, but Xiao Chen sounded a little embarrassed. Later, seeing Miss Yan pestering him, she asked Old Xu in a low voice during the dinner: "By the way, Uncle Xu, when will you find Lingling?" An aunt!"

Xu Lingling, who was listening next to her, choked after drinking half a sip of Coke. Lao Xu scratched his head. Although he felt that the two children probably didn't know, they still had a guilty conscience. Just as he was about to speak, several people in black suits suddenly barged in at the banquet door. The bailiffs from the Inspection Bureau broke in and walked directly to Lao Xu's table.

The scene suddenly became quiet. Lao Xu stood up, put his hand in his pocket and took out his mobile phone.

However, the judicial police officer ignored him, who was the focus of the audience. Although he rushed directly to Lao Xu's table, he only nodded to a city leader at the same table, and then showed some certificates and documents to Principal Lu. The principal turned pale and followed them directly.

"This……"

Everyone else at the table was very surprised, and the city leaders quickly tried to smooth things over, but it seemed that something had happened to Principal Lu. After that, the banquet continued, everyone enjoyed the feast, and the rumors about Principal Lu disappeared. The conversation around the wine table disappeared with the end of the banquet.

However, this may be a sign - there was a banquet that night, and the leaders said that Lao Xu had invited him to dinner, and they must invite him to drink. They talked in the same way, and it seemed that Lao Xu was also willing to have a drink.

But suddenly another call came. After answering it, Lao Xu changed his story and said something was wrong, and everyone went back to their homes.

Lao Xu actually has nothing to do. He is mainly in the Internet department now. If something happens, it won't be his turn to show up. That phone call probably just told him to be careful.

But Chen Qin had a premonition.

When Lao Xu received the call, Chen Qin had not yet received the text messages and emails.

When he got home that night, Lao Chen was a little depressed. Lou Xuemei asked him what was wrong, but Lao Chen just said that he was tired.

But it was too late to worry about him. When I returned to the computer, a message happened to be sent over.

"Old Chen, look at your Weibo, there is a leader from the Ministry of Finance of Meilijian @you!"

　Stop scolding, stop scolding, it will be updated early tomorrow
　　
　
(End of this chapter)