no shortcuts in basketball

Chapter 35 Draft Prediction
A few days later, the Devils arrived in Denver.

Excluding the qualifiers for the No. 16 and No. 17 seeds in each region, there will be a total of 64 rounds of competition from the top 6 to the final champion.

这6轮比赛，又会细分为三个阶段，64强到甜蜜16强、16强到最终4强、4强到最终总冠军。

What distinguishes these stages is the playing field.

The later the stage, the bigger the playing field will be, and the more attention it will attract.

The initial stage given to the Southern District team is the Denver Pepsi Center, which is the home court of the Denver Nuggets.

Arriving at the hotel that day, Xu Yong and Harden closed the door after entering the room, then touched the computer and opened the search engine.

According to the practice of previous years, at this time point, the first draft predictions are almost out.

Different from the entertainment nature of "Sports Illustrated" before, this time it will be NBADraft, the most famous draft website in the United States.

After opening it, the two saw that the prediction list had come out.

There are some discrepancies between this list and the 2008 draft that Xu Yong knew.

The first pick is Michael Beasley of Kansas State University. He averaged 26.2 points and 12.4 rebounds per game in the regular season. Hit rate, this is even more explosive than the original Anthony.

Speaking of which, they played against Kansas State University in the Invitational Tournament. Although they won that game, Beasley scored 39 points.

In the second place is Rose. Rose's regular season statistics are mediocre, averaging 14.9 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.7 assists. In the eyes of excel fans, this statistic can't make it into the lottery. However, in the predictive analysis, Rose's athletic ability is "shocking". To describe, and he is a "natural leader."

Tanhua is Gallinari, an overseas player, with excellent athletic ability, accurate three-pointers, able to organize and play low backs, and an all-around striker.

As for the favorites in the Pac10 league, Brook Lopez is 6th, Love is 7th, Westbrook is 11th, and Bayless is 13th.

Well, the Pac10 league is indeed the strongest league in the NCAA, and it is almost dominating the list in such a draft year.

However, these discrepancies made Xu Yong confirm one thing, the stage of the championship is really important.

There is another example in his mind. Donte Di Vincenzo, a white guard with mediocre talent, was considered undrafted before the championship, but he was stunned by his crazy performance in the championship, especially the 31 points scored by a substitute in the final , Brutely beat himself to the 17th pick in the first round.

Although such examples are rare, it shows that performing well in the championship stage can improve the draft pick, and even greatly improve it.

They then looked down.

Then soon, Harden's name also appeared.

Harden is projected to be selected by the Warriors with the 15th overall pick.

In the draft analysis, Harden's strengths and weaknesses are clearly written.

Advantages: comprehensive offense, excellent passing vision, excellent confrontation, very good at breaking through and drawing fouls, good game rhythm, showing the desire to win the game.

Disadvantages: Unstable scoring, great ups and downs whether it is three-pointers or mid-range, defensive loopholes, short height as a shooting guard, average athletic ability, many turnovers, low potential for improvement. 【Note 5】

To be honest, this is the first time Xu Yong saw Harden's draft prediction in 2008, which was lower than he expected.

However, the content of the analysis of professional draft websites is still very professional.

Especially in terms of turnovers, Harden averaged 4 assists per game this season but has nearly 3 turnovers, which is very downgraded.

Harden's expression was a bit complicated at this time, as if he was thinking about something.

Xu Yong continued down and saw himself at the 21st pick.

Pros: Amazing athleticism, great flexibility, toughness, great off-ball offense, great game style.

Cons: Undersized as a power forward and lacking offensive skills as a small forward, he looks more like a quality role player.

"Do you have a draft plan?" At this moment, Harden, who had finished thinking, asked Xu Yong.

Xu Yong glanced at Harden and nodded.

As a reborn, in addition to training in the past few years, he has naturally planned the draft.

Especially in the past year, he refined the original "four-year university plan".

"Can you tell me?" Harden looked a little confused at this time.

Xu Yong nodded, Harden is his friend now, and he has nothing to hide.

"Go as far as possible in the championship, improve the pick, and enter the lottery." Xu Yong's current plan is concise and clear.

The so-called lottery show refers to the top 14 picks. It is called so because of the existence of the "lotto ping pong ball" when drawing lots. As long as you have a chance to draw, you have a chance to draw the top three picks.

The 14 teams that can participate in this lottery are actually non-playoff teams from last season.

And being selected by a non-playoff team has a certain chance to be trained as the core of the team.

Of course, the higher the front, the greater the chance.

On the contrary, out of the lottery, what those playoff teams need more is high-quality role players, which is why Xu Yongdong's talent is outstanding, but he appears in this pick.

In other words, this is a watershed moment, which is why Xu Yong said this. He wants to be trained as a core player after entering the NBA.

There are several reasons for this.

First of all, he has this self-confidence.

He was trained by core players in the CBA back then, and he played better and better.

CBA是按轮来比赛的，他第二个赛季，第一轮场均差不多15+5+2，第二轮就提升到了18+6+3，第三轮更是直接到26+7+6了。

Although the strength of the CBA cannot be compared with the NBA, his improvement over the years and the foreseeable future improvement all show that he has potential in this area, rather than blind confidence.

The second is development.

There is a popular saying in the draft, "The lottery looks at the potential, the mid-to-late first round looks at the combat power, and the second round is scratch-off".

Not all of them are like this, but generally they can't run.

If you are selected in the non-lotto, there is a high probability that you will start playing as a role player, and as a role player, you will be required to do what you are good at on the field, and you must do it well, because the competition among role players, Much bigger than the core players.

Many role players may only have one chance to prove themselves in a lifetime, but those who are trained as the core have a high fault tolerance rate.

To give the closest example, Yi Jianlian and Sun Yue, who were both selected in 07, are very intuitive.

And after becoming a role player, you will gradually become only able to do those few things, and other abilities will gradually disappear.

Because it's useless even if you practice, the coach won't allow you to do those things on the court.

There are not many such examples in the NBA, but most of them are, because those who can enter the NBA are Jordan in their stories before the draft.

As for those who can grow from role players to core players, there are very few.

A lot of perception is just the result of survivor bias.

The last is what he just thought of, opportunity.

Being in the same division as the University of Memphis is a bad thing and a good thing. If they can really upset, they have a good chance.

Harden thought about it, then nodded.

For him, this is the best plan at the moment.

(End of this chapter)