Elegy of Tang Dynasty

Chapter 51 Reply to the Historical Deduction Test

I had to open a separate chapter to focus on the reply, because the comments from book friends were too explosive, which made me feel a lot of pressure, so I had to talk about this issue in a more formal way.

Can the prosperous Tang Dynasty be saved?I see that many people in the comment area have their own opinions, and they all make sense.

Now let’s discuss it in a mode of “ignoring the ruler’s subjective thoughts”.

In other words, the contingency of history is taken to the extreme. An Lushan was brain-controlled and turned into a loyal minister. The senior officials of the Tang Army could sacrifice their lives for the love of the country regardless of their children, and so on.

My answer is that perhaps a time traveler can use the method of "exchanging space for time" to shrink the pace of empire expansion in exchange for the extension of the country. The Anshi Rebellion can also be postponed in a relatively mild way.

But the prosperous Tang Dynasty cannot go back, and the bomb that should explode will definitely explode.

Just like the title of my book, singing dirges in prosperous times is the theme.The main point of the full text is not "Xiao Fang hacked to save the country".

The population expansion in the prosperous Tang Dynasty was approaching the limit that the land output could bear, and it must have an outlet for release, that is, population transfer.

So where is this exit?Someone said the Western Regions?Then Persia, black clothes and big food... It seems to be very far away. Let alone the Tang Dynasty, this road is probably not easy even in modern times?

The answer given by history is Jiangnan, southern Jingxiang, Lianghuai and even Lingnan.The population is moving towards these places, either actively or passively.

The Anshi Rebellion started China's second large-scale population migration in a passive way, from north to south.So, in order to maintain a huge central empire, if we do not adopt methods like the Anshi Rebellion, how can we complete this historical trend?
When there are more people, the economy will naturally develop. When the economy develops, it will demand more political power. If we do not give governance rights, there will be armed resistance, and eventually it will become a North-South split!
The Northern and Southern Dynasties are examples.

So where is the way out?
There are two answers. It is not a choice between the two, but something that must be done. If one is missing, you will die violently!
The first one is to move the capital out of Guanzhong and abandon the national policy of developing Guanzhong's military economy as the core.

Second, sort out the North-South Canal and re-select a capital economic circle that can carry the historical trend.

The two are actually one. Only by sorting out this can we be able to follow the general trend of history.

Because at that time, apart from human factors, none of them were on the side of Guanzhong or Chang'an.The policy of the prosperous Tang Dynasty was to fight against the general trend other than human beings.

Man cannot conquer heaven, so if we work together we have to be in awe of heaven and earth, let alone fight against each other?

By doing these two things, the empire's demise can be delayed.

Could the political structure of the prosperous Tang Dynasty achieve these two points?
The answer is that it can't be done, and why it can't be done probably doesn't need to be mentioned separately.

Even if the Tang Dynasty expanded crazily, won the Battle of Talas, destroyed Tubo, and bloodbathed the Khitans, the ecology of the Western Regions and the Hexi Corridor would have reached its limit.

In fact, at the end of Kaiyuan, the Tang army took the initiative to withdraw from some desert areas in the Hexi Corridor, downgrading the "army" to "guarding".

If Li Longji continues to be wise and powerful for 50 years, the environment in the Western Regions will also deteriorate at an accelerated pace.Is there a way out for expansion?not at all.

If the Western Region cannot be developed, Chang'an, as the capital, will have no rationality for its existence, and there will be nothing left.More than 1000 years of history have already given the answer.

After the Anshi Rebellion, the status of the North-South Canal rose sharply, from a "help line" to a "lifeline". This line has continued into the industrialization era.

This is the answer given by history. The heart of the great empire still returns to the section from Bianliang to Luoyang. However, due to the limitations of productivity in the feudal era and the destruction of the environment in the Western Regions, the empire will still be in a state of continuous shrinkage and cannot use the Western Regions as its basis. The core serves as a breakthrough point.

Luoyang, which takes an extra canal route, is far less economically convenient than Bianliang. Which one should be chosen in the capital circle, in fact, there are not many choices for the ruler.Bianliang can do it, and Luoyang seems to do it too, the general location is like this.

The prosperous Tang Dynasty had reached the limit of the expansion of the feudal empire. Without revolutionary technological breakthroughs, it would have been the upper limit of China's feudal unified empire. This is my answer.

Since it is the upper limit, the moon is full and waning. The vastness of history is the charm of historical literature, at least I think so.

(End of this chapter)