1928: The Rise of Giants

April 1929, the 6th year of the Republic of China (25).

It has been more than two weeks since the president of Citibank announced that it would inject US$3500 million into the U.S. stock market. Today is the second wave of capital injection by the Bankers Association, with a total amount of more than US$3000 million, which undoubtedly gives another shot in the arm to the overheated stock market.

The performance of more than 90% of banks in the United States in recent years has mostly come from stock financing business. People took out loans for stock trading. Although the names of the loans varied, the money without exception ended up pouring into the stock market.

In order to maintain these businesses and allow the U.S. economy to continue to grow, these large banks even did not hesitate to promote the stock market and continued to invest funds in the stock market when the Federal Reserve enacted monetary tightening policies.

This shows that the upper class in the United States has formed polarized views on the economic situation.

The White House faction headed by current President Hoover and others are eager for the stock market to hit new highs every day to consolidate their status, fame and fortune, while the pessimists headed by Franklin and others deeply condemn this. However, under the general trend, the more you sing the opposite, the more Easily isolated.

That afternoon, the attic of Franklin's villa.

A group of people headed by Franklin and Yello gathered around the wooden table, and the legendary trader Livermore also joined them, but at this time he was no longer the protagonist.

Everyone listened attentively to the horrifying views expressed by the young Chinese.

With the previous short-term short selling, they were already convinced of Ye Luo's ability.

"Before we start shorting the U.S. stock market, we must first help them fuel the fire and stir up the stock market to its hottest state. To this end, Mr. Livermore and I have hired more than 500 securities brokers to diversify our investments and hide our true intentions. . In addition, Hongxing United Group already has more than a thousand stock salesmen, but this number is far from enough. I hope to use Mr. Franklin's resources to recruit salesmen to join our team."

Ye Luo was talking eloquently. There was a small blackboard behind him. He had written it all in English and had many messy photos and various data analysis charts posted on it.

"With such a big movement, it is difficult not to be noticed by the Federal Reserve." Old Joseph frowned and said, "And by cooperating with them as promoters, isn't this pushing the U.S. economy to a dead end?"

Little John also nodded, expressing disapproval of this.

Only Mamuri has served in the White House and knows that top-level politicians have no feelings about family and country at all. They only have power and status in their eyes.

No matter how much you love the people and the country, if you are not the top leader in power, you will eventually become someone else's wedding dress.

"Old Joseph, even if we don't add fuel to the fire, the U.S. stock market will form an irreversible bubble and finally snap."

Ye Luo made a gesture and said with a smile,

"Being exposed."

"I'll help you arrange the salesmen." Franklin in the wheelchair had a desire for political power far beyond anyone's imagination. When he was running for vice president, he lost because of a benevolent thought. At this time, his heart was as steel and his will was tenacious. He was no longer what he was before. That young guy who was just starting out.

"So how exactly do we judge when it's time to actually go short?" Livermore has no interest in investing in overheated stocks.

In his opinion, this is a time when you can make money with your hands. His family's Livermore Group has always been good at this. Even without him in charge, it can still make a lot of profits. There is no way to prove that he has no Getting old is a thing.

"Stocks have been rising at an accelerated pace throughout June. Although they fell for two days due to the Fed's secret meeting, the Dow Jones Industrial Index still had a significant increase. I asked someone to do the statistics and found an interesting thing."

"Since Citibank's first capital injection, stocks have risen for 13 days in a row, which is a very typical bull market feature. However, the number of stocks hitting new highs in June dropped to 6 from 614 a year ago."

If you look at the two things separately, many people will subconsciously ignore these data, but when you look at them together, they become interesting and obvious.

"In other words, even if Citibank has injected nearly US$7000 million into the stock market, it still cannot cover up the decline of the stock market. The record high stock price is the most typical sign of stock market prosperity, and such a number of stocks has not yet officially If you draw a curve compared to last year when the crazy mode was on, June should be the turning point." Livermore quickly understood what Ye Luo meant.

Several others were still confused. It felt like Ye Luo and the two were brainstorming, but he was excluded and had no choice but to ask Ye Luo to explain more clearly.

"To put it simply, stocks will continue to rise, but the increase has reached the highest point, and then there will be a downward trend. If excellent mathematicians can conduct a large amount of data analysis and verification, we should be able to draw some more reliable conclusions."

Ye Luo's fingers slid lightly on the blackboard, and then he said the conclusion that several people had dreamed of,

"I have sent someone to ask the most famous mathematician from Harvard University to do some calculations. Of course, he does not know the meaning of these numbers. I think the time of the big crash we are looking forward to should be in September or October."

Of course Ye Luo knows the real nodes and the ins and outs.

But at this moment, it’s all revealed. Although it’s temporarily satisfying to appear holy in front of others, the problems behind it are endless.

There are no fools here, they are all real smart people. To control these smart people well, you have to pretend to be a real stock god.

The stock god is not invincible, but he can keep his chain on track at critical moments, and he can be favored by the goddess of luck.

Gods who can fail will not make people feel marginalized.

"September and October are still relatively rough figures." Livermore sighed.

If they really want to go short, any small mistake may cause their efforts to be in vain and their position to be liquidated.

The key is that their initial capital is too strong. Once the position is liquidated, they will suffer losses in the tens of millions.

Judging from Ye Luo's appearance, he had just made more than 3000 million US dollars from the stock market. He had previously promised to invest 5000 million US dollars to start. Now the total capital of everyone present is accumulated, and it will soon exceed million US dollars.

What is the concept of over 100 million US dollars?

Last year, major U.S. banks' total loans to all securities companies were US$42.87 billion, loans to all self-employed individuals for stock investment were US$52.4 billion, and loans to all non-securities companies for stock investment were US$77.8 billion.

The total loan amount is US$173.07 billion, accounting for 35% of the current total volume of the U.S. stock market.

In other words, when the U.S. stock market was extremely overheated, it created a bubble of nearly $500 billion.

From 1941 to the end of World War II in 1945, the United States provided supplies worth up to 30 billion US dollars to more than 500 allied countries, including the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, and China. Among them, the United Kingdom and the Commonwealth led by it were close to Shuilou Terrace. It received US$314 billion in supplies, accounting for the absolute majority, while the Jinling National Government received US$8.4 million.

The US$500 billion market is equivalent to the total value of the aid materials provided by the United States to its allies in World War I. The initial capital of these people can reach one-fifth of the total market volume, and one-eighth of the value of the materials received by China. one!

This shows how rich their capital is.

Therefore, Livermore does not want to taste the bitter taste of liquidation.

"There's nothing we can do about it. If we could predict the specific time instantly, we wouldn't have to meet frequently to discuss countermeasures. But I believe that as time goes by, that time point will become clearer and clearer, just like this time. .”

Ye Luo said confidently.

Hearing "It's just like this time", everyone seemed to have taken reassurance and felt a lot more at ease, and expressed their full support for Ye Luo's actions. (End of chapter)