Hong Kong Comprehensive Report: Dragon is in Hong Kong, he just wants to be a plutocrat

Chapter 149 If you miss this opportunity, you can only wait for 20 years

“Short US sovereign bonds?”

Fang Zhanbo and Chen Taotao looked at each other, and the little follower behind them, Luo Minsheng, was even more surprised and opened his mouth wide enough to fit a salted duck egg in.

They thought the boss's target might be the sovereign bonds of a small country.

Who knew that if the boss didn't do something about it, he would have done something big.

If it were anyone else, the two financial elites would have scoffed at him, calling him a sneer and a fool.

But in front of me is a god who accurately predicted the explosion of the Hang Seng Index.

Chen Taotao secretly poked Zhanbo below to bring him back to his senses.

Fang Zhanbo was excited and looked at his boss with complicated eyes: "Boss, I would also like to ask you what is your core argument for shorting rice bonds. Of course, we also want to hear more of your opinions and be more confident to implement your strategic plan."

Jiang Tianen turned around and pressed the cigarette in his hand into the ashtray: "I will tell you even if you don't ask."

"Do you still remember the U.S. economic revitalization plan I just mentioned? Then let me test you. Can anyone explain its specific meaning?"

Fang Zhanbo and Chen Taotao, who only focused on indices and individual stocks, looked confused.

But Luo Minsheng behind him timidly raised his hand
"I know, boss!"

"Oh?"

The three people stared at him at the same time.

Nervous Luo Minsheng swallowed.

Jiang Tianen smiled: "If you know it, just say it openly. This is not an assessment. It doesn't matter if you say it wrong."

Under the encouraging eyes of the boss.

Luo Minsheng calmed down and spoke in detail: "Kevin's economic revitalization plan advocates that the government should actively participate in economic affairs (in line with the traditional views of the Donkey Party), but the government cannot do everything, and must pay full attention to the role of the market. The main thing is The measures include reducing the fiscal deficit; implementing a proactive and continuous monetary policy to curb inflation. The core is to suppress inflation!! Reduce the current high inflation rate in the United States (PS: Is it very similar to now, but now someone is afraid to raise taxes on the rich) "

"Boss, that's all I remember. I don't know if that's correct."

Bang bang bang, Jiang Tianen applauded: "Zhan Bo is a great talent with an international vision. You must train him well."

Encouraged, Luo Minsheng became emotional and his face turned red.

Nothing feels better than having your worth recognized by others.

"I know, boss! But I still don't understand the core logic of shorting U.S. debt?" Fang Zhanbo and Chen Taotao actually had vague guesses in their minds, but they couldn't grasp the core, so they frowned. The head continued to ask: "Boss, please give me your instructions without hesitation."

Jiang Tianen said with a smile: "The core is just five words. As long as you two understand the essence of inflation + the Fed's interest rate hike, everything will be understood!"

The two chewed the five-character core from the boss's mouth repeatedly.

Suddenly Fang Zhanbo's eyes lit up: "I understand!"

Chen Taotao was still confused: "Hey, you guys said it quickly, I'm so worried."

Jiang Tianen also made a gesture of invitation: "Tell me and let me see how much you understand."

Immediately, Fang Zhanbo started talking.

“In order to suppress high inflation, the Federal Reserve Bank of America will definitely raise interest rates. Raising interest rates will definitely cause the dollar to return and strengthen, it will definitely cause panic about the US dollar in the market, and it will definitely cause the yield on rice bonds to skyrocket. But when the increase eventually reaches its peak, it will be the result of a unilateral rise. No matter how fierce it rises, it will fall as hard as it does, and rice bonds will eventually collapse at some point! Boss, I don’t know if you’re right.”

Everything Fang Zhanbo said starts from the nature of the U.S. economy.

The essence of the United States is to use the universality of the dollar world to harvest the whole world.

It continues to roll forward with interest rate increases and decreases.

After the collapse of a certain country in the 90s, the United States no longer has any rivals around the world. Under the leadership of the Xiang Party, it has begun a luxurious life of high consumption and waste. Coupled with Operation Desert Fox, military expenditures have been squandered by 10,000+ billion meters.The QE of the dollar continues to increase, flooding the economy.

(This is the main driving force of the 91-93 rice stock bull market and the global bull market, because there is an overabundance of rice gold that is bought and bought all over the world.)
After losing its biggest enemy, the entire external environment has entered a high-consumption society. The exponential rise in labor costs has caused the entire United States to now have high deficits and high inflation.

当驴党上台后发现米国这十年内通胀居然从里根时代的1点几飙升到4.8%。于是自1994年1月起，米联储在一年的时间内将联邦基金利率从3%上调至6%，实现了六次加息周期。在本轮加息周期中，美股在加息落地的第一季度Q1开始下跌并在2个季度Q2和Q3横盘震荡，最终在第4个季度Q4勉强适应本轮利率并追回加息前的高点。

当然美股不是重点，重点的是在94年1-9月这期间。30年米国国债收益率飙升300个基点！达到历史最惊人的7.75%。

This caused huge amounts of U.S. dollars in overseas and Canadian stock markets to pour into U.S. bonds.

Because it is more profitable than depositing money in a bank or even doing business, so why not invest.

Affected by this, the investment bank Kidder Peabody was acquired, Orange County in California went bankrupt, Mexico was affected, and the seeds were sown for the Asian financial crisis in 1997.

The loan interest rate issued by the bank is actually lower than the deposit interest rate!This will cause a large number of bank bankruptcies (PS: Now it is another cycle)
This was also a driving force behind the merger between JPMorgan and Chase.

The interest rate hike policy has successfully suppressed inflation. In the Q4 financial report released in December, inflation was suppressed to below 2%. GPD growth is the highest in recent decades at 3%.

Klinenomics was a huge success.

Of course, just after the easy break, this virtual fire will always be extinguished.Otherwise, the annual interest alone can overwhelm U.S. fiscal revenue.

That’s when the real avalanche happens.

The high economic prosperity means that the Federal Reserve has no reason to continue raising interest rates, so it announced that it would stop raising interest rates that month and began cutting interest rates and printing money!
U.S. bond yields fell in response.

Therefore, interest rates must fall rapidly after peaking.

When it goes up, everyone is united as one, but when the income goes down, it all depends on who can run faster!
When a large amount of rice bonds sells off the market, it will trigger another stampede.

Traders call 1994 the bond market bloodbath, when short-term interest rates doubled in 12 months, costing the bond market more than $6000 billion.

It was a massacre and a feast of wealth.

The big short seller who can be named in the later period is the huge amount of capital and experience accumulated in this battle.

Of course Jiang Tianen would not miss such an excellent opportunity!
And what he harvested was Mi Lijian, which made him feel even better.

This time is an extremely good time to make huge profits.

If you miss it, you can only wait for the next cycle.

That is, the subprime mortgage crisis 18 years later and the great inflation 30 years later.

As everyone analyzes the nature of this round of Fed interest rate hikes, everyone increasingly feels that the boss's prediction is extremely feasible.

This is good business, and it’s big business!

Jiang Tianen is only responsible for strategic conception, and of course the specific implementation will be left to the professional financial talents below.

There was a brainstorm in his chairman's office.

Everyone has put forward constructive ideas on how to enter the market, fund allocation, and legal risk issues!
Of course, when establishing the US station, Jiang Tianen could not just let people from Asia Dragon Investment Company pass, even if these people were not loyal. After all, don't try to test human nature in the face of tens of billions of profits.

Therefore, regarding the personnel structure of the U.S. station, people from the investment company should go outside, and personnel from the finance and legal departments should be dispatched to supervise the three parties.

In particular, investment details must be faxed in for review every ten days.

In order to prevent the three parties from colluding together, in addition to the permanent personnel from the investment department, the legal department and the finance department need to return to China every quarter for rotation.

Sometimes it is better to believe in human nature than to believe in the system!

Next it is time to decide on the person in charge of the US station.

"Zhan Bo, how is your wife's condition?" Jiang Tianen asked with a smile.

Fang Zhanbo showed a happy smile: "Thanks to your relationship, now it has stabilized and the source of the heart has been determined. The transplant operation can be performed in ten days."

"Let's do this. Luo Minsheng, you graduated from the University of Chicago and have experience in the United States. You first go to the United States to find a place to stay, structure the branch, and take the position of vice president. I will give you a month's vacation after broadcasting. Regarding Madam’s affairs, we will go to the United States to meet up with Chen Taotao to implement our investment plan! In addition, Long Yi and the other three will accompany you there. I heard that the public security in the United States is more chaotic than that in Xiangjiang, so they are protecting your personal safety."

"Chen Taotao stayed behind at home and was responsible for his investment in Hong Kong stocks."

Luo Minsheng looked surprised: "Me?" He was entrusted with an important task just three months after joining the company. Luo Minsheng was both nervous and excited.

I am worried because I am not qualified enough and am afraid of messing up. I am excited because I can participate in such a big project, which will greatly expand my future qualifications and horizons.

Fang Zhanbo thought for a while: "The boss's one-month holiday is too long, half a month is enough. This project is so big, I'm afraid Minsheng won't be able to handle it alone."

"Okay! I admire your work enthusiasm. If you persist, I will give you and your wife a big vacation around the world when the project is completed this year."

Chen Taotao looked at the two people with envy.

Jiang Tianen said comfortingly: "Chen Taotao, after all, we have to keep an experienced old man in the family. Next time there is a big case, it will be your turn."

Chen Taotao waved his hands repeatedly: "Boss, I don't think so. I work for you wherever I go, and you really need to keep people at home."

"I'm relieved you think so."

In fact, Jiang Tianen had carefully considered the personnel arrangement.

Chen Taotao is a smart person.He also has rich experience in living in the United States, but he is too out-of-the-box and has an unstable personality. He also has some small thoughts and cleverness, and sometimes likes to make his own decisions.There cannot be any mistakes in such a large project. Even if there is a system, we must prevent people like this from taking advantage of loopholes.

In addition, this guy is a non-marriage person and a refined egotist.

This person cannot be reused or trusted. You must stay at home to keep an eye on him and let him make money for you honestly.

(End of this chapter)