The Ming Dynasty started with saving the eldest grandson

Chapter 128 What if...what if?

"The Ming Dynasty is now in the transition period of a new round of warm and cold changes..."

"The temperature has been much cooler than during the Sui and Tang Dynasties..."

"As time goes by, within a hundred years at most, it will completely enter a cold period."

"Extreme weather would occur frequently during the Han Dynasty..."

"Your Majesty, you can ask someone to look through the history books. You will definitely be able to see this change from the clues."

Zhu Yuanzhang's expression was solemn as never before.

Naturally, he would not believe Chen Jingke's words so easily.

But Chen Jingke's performance all along made him dare not ignore it.

If all this is true...

Daming's luck is not good either.

Chen Jingke said seriously: "But the situation faced by the Ming Dynasty is countless times worse than that of the Han Dynasty."

"Our population is larger than that of the Han Dynasty, so the burden is greater."

"During the Han Dynasty, floods in the Yellow River were not that serious because of Wang Jing's management."

"So, I think some things must be planned in advance."

Zhu Xiongying also had a serious look on his face. He had completely believed Chen Jingke's words.

In other words, he never suspected that it was fake at all.

Zhu Yuanzhang was silent for a long time. Emotionally, he was more inclined to believe Chen Jingke's reasoning.

But reason told him that the evidence was not enough.

The main reason is that the cycle is too short, and it is difficult to tell whether it is a cyclic change or an abnormal climate.

Chen Jingke also knew that his evidence was insufficient, but he had no choice. He couldn't say that he was a time traveler, right?

The history of China is indeed long enough, but the major changes during the Qin Dynasty almost destroyed the pre-Qin history books.

He could only use historical records after the Han Dynasty as evidence.

Hey, no, there seems to be something that can be used as evidence.

He quickly added: "Your Majesty, there is one more thing that can be used to prove the Wenhan Change, and relevant records from the Pre-Qin Period can be found."

Zhu Yuanzhang asked: "Oh, what's the matter?"

Chen Jingke said: "Rhino and elephant...these two animals like to live in areas with high temperatures..."

"Your Majesty, you can look through the history books. During the Han Dynasty, there were relatively few records about elephants in the Central Plains."

"This is because elephants and rhinos migrate south during the cold period."

"The warm period came during the Sui and Tang Dynasties, and elephants and rhinoceroses moved north again."

"Wild rhinos and elephants have been found in Guanzhong and even in Shandong and Henan."

"There are more records about elephants and rhinos in the Song Dynasty. There are a large number of wild elephants and rhinos living in the Huaihe River Basin."

"Now, the activity areas of rhinos and elephants have moved south to the Jingxiang area."

"And as the climate gets colder, they will move further south and eventually retreat to Yunnan."

"Your Majesty can search the historical materials of the Pre-Qin Dynasty to see which period has many records about elephants and rhinoceros. It is most likely the warm period."

"There are few records of these two animals, which means it is a cold period..."

"If I guess correctly, the interval between this sudden decrease and sudden increase should be between 500 and [-] years."

Although the cold period is coming, not all elephants and rhinos can move.

But those that remain will be killed before long.

Therefore, there are relatively few records of these two creatures in the Central Plains Dynasty during the cold period.

An article suddenly appeared in Zhu Yuanzhang's mind, "Mencius Teng Wengong":
Zhou Gongxiang, King Wu, executed King Zhou. He attacked his king in the third year of his death. He drove Fei Lian to the corner of the sea and killed them. The country was destroyed by fifty people. He drove tigers, leopards, rhinoceros, and elephants far away. The world was very happy.

This shows that tigers, leopards, rhinos and elephants lived in the Central Plains at that time.

And there must be a lot of them, and the people suffer from them.

Otherwise, the world will not be happy just because of the expulsion.

If the pattern mentioned by Chen Jingke is true, then the authenticity of the Wenhan Change can indeed be judged by the frequency of elephants and rhinos appearing in history books.

However, he did not say whether he believed it or not, but asked:

"Any more?"

Chen Jingke shook his head: "I can only think of so much for the time being. If I find any other evidence, I will report it to Your Majesty."

Zhu Yuanzhang nodded and suddenly said: "You still haven't explained why trees can't be planted in the Hetao area."

"Even if the temperature change is true, what does it have to do with planting trees there?"

Chen Jingke thought that this was indeed the case. His introduction to the climate of the Little Glacier was far from enough.

So he picked up a pen and drew a line on the map and said:
"In the warm period, the climate will warm as a whole and the precipitation line will move northwest..."

"Probably here...the rainfall in Shanxi-Shaanxi and Hetao will increase."

“During the cold period, the climate becomes colder as a whole, especially in the north…”

"And the precipitation line will also retreat to the southeast, probably here..."

He drew another dotted line:
"I don't know where the specific line is. This is just a rough drawing for your Majesty's reference."

Zhu Yuanzhang nodded and said nothing.

Chen Jingke continued: "During the cold period, the precipitation line moves southeast, and rainfall decreases in Shanxi-Shaanxi and Hetao areas."

“The colder weather is not conducive to the growth of vegetation, and coupled with the lack of rain, it is even more difficult to survive.”

Zhu Xiongying scratched his head and said doubtfully: "It was a cold period in the Han Dynasty, so why is the Hetao so rich in water and grass?"

"The Tang Dynasty was a warm period, so desertification began?"

Zhu Yuanzhang was full of praise in his heart. He is indeed our good grandson. He is so smart.

Chen Jingke was also a little surprised. This young man has a very flexible mind.

"Grass and trees can preserve soil and water..."

Zhu Yuanzhang and Zhu Xiongying both looked confused. Bao Tu and the others knew what Bao Shui meant.
Chen Jingke paused and explained: "For example, it rained ten times."

"The forest can absorb [-]% of the water, and the grassland can absorb [-]%..."

"During drought periods, vegetation can rely on pre-reserved water to survive."

"During the Han Dynasty, Hetao was still a grassland, and there were still large areas of virgin forest in Shanxi and Shaanxi."

"So, even though it was a cold period, these two places were able to stay the same."

"And in the Tang Dynasty, it was because of uncontrolled felling, reclamation, and grazing."

"Large areas of vegetation in Shanxi-Shaanxi and Hetao areas have disappeared, leaving the land exposed..."

"Without the vegetation, nine out of ten parts of the rain will flow away."

"And the water that flows away also carries a lot of sediment."

"The remaining water will be gone as soon as the sun shines."

"During the Tang and Song Dynasties, even if the land became desertified, the Hetao was still an important horse-producing land and agricultural reclamation area."

"Simply because there is enough rainfall, plus water can be diverted from the Yellow River for irrigation."

"But in the cold period, rainfall decreases, land desertification becomes serious, and there is no water storage capacity..."

"It's basically difficult to grow vegetation."

Zhu Xiongying suddenly realized that this was the case.

To put it bluntly, everything is caused by people destroying things.

During the Han Dynasty, there were relatively few people in the Hetao area, and the vegetation was not destroyed.

During the Sui and Tang Dynasties, a large number of people migrated there, and the vegetation was destroyed.

Now that we are in the cold season, it will be difficult to grow live vegetation.

Chen Jingke waited for a while and saw that they did not raise any more questions before continuing:
"There are still many grasslands in the Hetao and Shanxi-Shaanxi areas."

"As the climate worsens year by year, local people cannot survive and will inevitably squeeze out the last bit of green."

"Until the end, the entire land turned into a desert."

"At that time, either the court will find a way to move them out, or they will not be able to survive..."

He didn't say the next words, but Zhu Yuanzhang understood what he meant.

People who cannot survive will rebel.

In previous history, the area with the most frequent turmoil in the late Ming Dynasty was Shaanxi and Gansu.

Li Zicheng was from Shaanxi.

It was impossible not to rebel. The weather was bad, there were natural disasters every year, and the court was unable to provide disaster relief and had to levy various taxes.The people had no other choice but to rebel.

Zhu Yuanzhang thought more. Hetao is one of the most important horse breeding areas.

It is also a bridgehead and important supply depot against grassland invasion.

If this place is completely deserted, it will directly affect Ming's war horse reserve.

It will also cause Ming Dynasty's border defense to lose a point of support.

The impact is simply too great.

Of course, the premise of all this is that Wenhan becomes real.

But as the emperor, he had to prepare for the worst.

What if it was true?

Don't dare to gamble, and can't gamble.

If the temperature-cold change is true, if the Ming Dynasty is really about to enter a cold period, the northern climate...

Hey, Zhu Yuanzhang's heart moved, and he suddenly thought of something.

During the cold period, the climate in the north is abnormal, and the precipitation line also moves to the southeast. What about the south?

Will the South be affected?
Thinking of this, he quickly asked: "You only mentioned the north, what about the south?"

"What will happen to the South if a cold period comes?"

Chen Jingke thought to himself, you finally asked the essence of the question and saved me a lot of saliva.

"The south will also be affected. The Huaihe River can freeze, and the Yangtze River coast will also be affected."

"But the situation is much better than in the north."

"The further south you go, the warmer or even hotter the climate, and the less affected you are by cold periods."

"At that time, the food security of Ming Dynasty can only be ensured by Huguang, Jiangxi and Guangdong and Guangxi."

Zhu Yuanzhang's expression became more solemn.

Can such a large country be maintained by relying on the food provided by these three places?
The answer is undoubtedly no.

Therefore, the court must find other ways.

Chen Jingke deliberately did not mention the Indochina Peninsula and the Nanyang Islands.

It's not that I don't want to mention it, but I'm afraid that if I mention it at this time, it will cause Zhu Yuanzhang to misunderstand.

Thinking that he wanted to lead the imperial court to the south, he deliberately forged the concept of Wenhanbian.

If so, it would be self-defeating.

After all, his hawkish image has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and he tells Zhu Xiongying stories about opening up new territories every day.

It is not surprising that Zhu Yuanzhang doubted him.

But he is not worried about this problem.

During the Song Dynasty, rice was harvested three times a year in Indochina, and this fact had already spread to the Central Plains.

Champa rice was also introduced and hybridized with southern Chinese rice.

Breeding rice with a short growth cycle and better taste.

Zhu Yuanzhang was the person who could write the ancestral precepts of Emperor Ming. Since he could list so many countries that would not be conquered, he must have done some understanding.

The situation in Indochina is certainly clear.

There is no need to remind him deliberately, as long as he believes that Wen Hanbian exists.

Sooner or later, we will make plans for the Indochina Peninsula.

Even if he doesn't think of it, it's not too late to find another opportunity to remind him.

Anyway, with the current situation of the Ming Dynasty, even if it is proposed, there is no way to march south without delaying this for a while.

Another reason is that this matter is really not urgent.

The Ming Dynasty still had at least several decades to prepare, and there were many opportunities for the southern expedition.

Now, let's set aside time for Zhu Yuanzhang to confirm the authenticity of Wen Han's change.

Then, Chen Jingke talked about some climate characteristics of the Little Ice Age.

It was emphasized how harsh the climate was during this period and how difficult it was to survive.

And he also made an analogy with the late Eastern Han Dynasty.

It can be seen from his expression that Zhu Yuanzhang's heart is very heavy.

Seeing that the lecture was almost finished, Chen Jingke decisively ended today's lecture.

Zhu Yuanzhang asked several more questions before finally getting up and leaving.

Before leaving, he also warned the two: "Don't tell anyone about this."

Chen Jingke naturally wouldn't talk nonsense.

Zhu Xiongying also knew the seriousness of the matter and promised not to reveal even a word about it.
-
Returning to his palace, Zhu Yuanzhang said to Sun Fu:

"Those who serve the grandson... well, send them all to Fengyang to guard the emperor's mausoleum."

Sun Fu said quickly: "Yes, I will make arrangements right away."

Zhu Yuanzhang didn't say anything else. He originally wanted to kill all these people.

But when I think about it, I feel it’s not necessary.

If Wen Hanbian's story was false, there would be no need to keep it secret.

If it is true, it will be made public sooner or later.

Only by making it public can the court make legitimate preparations.

It's just that it's not appropriate to make it public until the court is ready.

Of course, it doesn't matter if you kill them, they are just a few slaves.

It's just that killing people indiscriminately will make people around you uneasy. If you accumulate too much fear, it will easily change.

Moreover, this was Zhu Xiongying's servant. He didn't want to see blood easily, for fear of being unlucky.

Therefore, he changed his mind and sent these people to Fengyang to guard the ancestral graves.

To him, this was nothing but a trivial matter.

After dealing with it casually, he turned to think about what Chen Jingke said today.

First of all, the evidence about the Yellow River incident is conclusive. Should we choose labor pain or long-term pain?

He personally prefers short-term pain, but even if he is Zhu Yuanzhang, he cannot resolve such a big matter with just one word.

How to convince the ministers is a big problem.

Even if you are convinced, how to change the route is still a big problem.

As for the temperature and cold changes, this issue is not important at the moment.

But you can't ignore it.

Again, Chen Jingke's consistent performance has allowed him to accumulate enough credibility.

Even with such an absurd inference, Zhu Yuanzhang did not dare to directly conclude that it was false.

What if it's true?What if?
Now is the best time to make a layout.

If you miss it, you will have to fight hard later.

Thinking about the situation during the Three Kingdoms period at the end of the Han Dynasty, he had no hope that the Ming Dynasty would survive the cold period.

If you plan ahead, there may be some hope.

But the problem is that if this inference is not established, the warm and cold changes do not exist.

Then all the preparations he made were a waste of time and money.

So we still have to find a way to confirm this guess.

My mind is in a mess. It would be nice if Biao'er was here and I could discuss it with him.

How about calling him back?

If it didn't work, Zhu Yuanzhang immediately rejected the idea.

Even if the Wenhan Transformation is real, Ming Dynasty still has enough time to prepare.

Treasure money is the most important thing right now.

But even though Zhu Biao was not here, he still had someone he could discuss with.

That is Queen Ma.

Thinking of his virtuous wife, Zhu Yuanzhang could no longer sit still, got up and went to Kunning Palace.

(End of this chapter)