Go back in time and be a chaebol

Chapter 1407 The one who gets stuck in your neck is your true friend (Second update, please subscribe)
They were on the wrong path from the beginning.

“Not only were they wrong from the start, they were dead wrong.”

Nodding, Li Yian said:

"In fact, the Soviet Union has the world's top theoretical physicists, including in the field of semiconductors. Integrated circuits are only in their infancy now. If they can calm down and put their best scientists into research and development instead of copying, then they will have hope of catching up. But..."

When saying "but", Li Yian's tone was filled with helplessness and more of a sense of regret.

Why is it such a pity? The reason is that we are actually copying the technology path of the United States, another world.

From the perspective of technology, the end can be seen at a glance. Because before he crossed over, there was a saying that Moore's Law is dead.

This is because the silicon process has reached its limit. Transistors cannot be infinitely small, and quantum effects will appear when the material is smaller than 5 nanometers.

Therefore, under such circumstances, Li Yian hopes that the Russians can open up new paths. After all, during the Cold War, Russia did open up some new paths in an attempt to overtake others.

For example, ternary electronic computers and the like, those paths that seem a little alternative may be a possibility for the future.

But who would have thought that Russia has chosen the simplest "copy strategy" which has almost no possibility of overtaking?

Although overtaking on a curve does exist, the probability of overturning is higher. Moreover, this is a path that has long been proven to be doomed to failure.

This is just... so stupid!
"They have chosen a path that is doomed to failure. The more they try to catch up, the more they fall behind. This is almost irreversible. In fact..."

Referring to the situation in the Soviet Union, Li Yian said:
"For Russia, the best option is to calm down and conduct independent research. Now in terms of overall technology, they are probably only slightly behind the West.

If they can calm down and make breakthroughs in fields such as materials science, they may make progress and even open up a new path.”

It would be a good thing for the world if Russia could find a new path beyond silicon manufacturing.

This is also what Li Yian desires. After all, the end of the silicon process can be seen at a glance.

“Opening up new paths?”

Although he is a layman in technology, Jia Wentao still understood what you meant.

"Sir, you mean to let the Russians try and make mistakes? To achieve new breakthroughs through trial and error?"

"Haha, some attempts always need someone to do it."

Li Yian said directly.

"The technical route we adopted is just one of them, but can the Russians open up another route? In this way, we can make comparisons in the future and choose the best one."

Just like in another world, wasn't it because of the failure of trial and error that Russia completely abandoned the miniaturization of vacuum tubes in the late 60s?

If they had been able to trial and error in miniaturizing the electron tube, they could certainly try again on the transistor path.

Instead of simply copying without any originality, the American engineers even engraved a Russian taunt directly on the chip: "When you care enough to steal the best, you will see this sentence."

As long as the product is strong and the words are firm, the sarcasm can be so direct.

"Okay, let's not talk about this for now..."

After thinking for a while, Li Yian said:
"Now, just get them back on track!"

"Get back on track?"

Jia Wentao said:
"Sir, you mean to cut off their hand reaching out to Silicon Valley, right?"

"Yes, that is, to cut off their hands. From now on, we will impose a comprehensive embargo on them on chips, increasing the difficulty and cost for them to obtain chips!"

Li Yian thought for a moment and said.

"Besides," "If you try to stop someone from getting in trouble, you might get some unexpected benefits!"

What is Li Yian’s so-called “unexpected gain”?
As an intelligence officer, Jia Wentao didn't understand, but Yuan Jialiu, as a physicist, knew it very well.

"So the next step is to force the Russians to conduct independent research through an embargo, right?"

The two chatted while playing chess:
"more or less!"

Li Yian nodded and said:

"In terms of the research system, although the Soviet Union's scientific research system was rigid, they also had their advantages. They could concentrate their efforts on certain research. For example, when they decided to develop chips, they built a semiconductor city and prepared to surpass us in momentum."

It wasn't just a semiconductor city that was built, but a group of professional agents was also recruited - even though the United States imposed a technological blockade on the Soviet Union, KGB spies still infiltrated the Western world like a sieve.

The KGB and Soviet scientists working together would surely narrow the technological gap between the Soviet Union and the West. On the surface, all the necessary equipment could be built. Soviet engineers were also confident that it was only a matter of time before their country surpassed the United States in the semiconductor industry.

But it's just a thought. After all, the copy path is wrong!

"As long as they want, they will invest a lot of resources in new research. Now they have made some progress by imitating our chips, but the path is always wrong. After all, integrated circuit iteration is here. Remember Li's law? Chip performance doubles every two years.

Even if every Soviet scientist tried their best, this copying model was destined to cause chip technology to lag behind by one generation. As chip performance continued to increase, the gap represented by "one generation behind" would continue to grow.

The gap now is two years, in ten years it will be five years, and in twenty years it will be ten years..."

This is exactly why the Soviet Union later realized that its "copying strategy" had failed - copying American chips not only did not narrow the gap, but even widened the gap.

In 1980, the US Central Intelligence Agency conducted a study on Soviet microprocessors, comparing Soviet-made chips with Intel and Motorola chips, and was surprised to find that they were not almost the same, because they were exact copies, leaving CIA staff confused. From a technological point of view, the Soviet Union was five years behind the United States at the time.

By the time the Soviet Union collapsed, its technology lagged behind that of the United States by ten years!
After its collapse, even the CIA was surprised and said that, in fact, there was no need to go to great lengths to impose an embargo on the Soviet Union, as the more they imitated, the more backward they fell.

The greater crisis is that many of the so-called "successfully copied" products were merely replicated in the laboratory. The Soviet Union did not obtain the corresponding production technology. When they were promoted on a large scale, they still encountered a series of problems such as low yield rate and poor quality, which resulted in the products being expensive and poorly used.

Since researchers and manufacturers cannot obtain positive or negative feedback from the market, they naturally do not know the direction of improvement and lack the motivation to improve. Therefore, the achievements made by the Soviet Union through reverse engineering have never been transformed into positive research.

"Zhiyuan, you are helping them correct their mistakes!"

Yuan Jialiu made a move and said:
"From this perspective, it would be better to export chips to them, as this would only stifle their independent research capabilities!"

"It does help the Soviet Union's independent research, but it is for a longer-term goal..."

Li Yian said while playing chess:
"How should I put it? The Soviet Union's research system determined that they generally had a mentality of "overtaking on a curve". If they fell behind us in silicon process, they would find another way and try to make breakthroughs in germanium, gallium and other fields. When conducting this kind of research, their mentality was very simple. If this thing could be done, they would overtake us on a curve. Wouldn't all the chips that the Western world is now showing off become scraps?
Therefore, their scientists will choose the "curved path", and some of these paths may help our research. After all, this vision will make the Soviet Union invest a lot of money and manpower in this research and development. "

In fact, in the early 1980s, the Soviet Union also realized the failure of the "copying strategy", so it tried to "overtake on the curve" through innovation in materials science, but unfortunately, at that time, the Soviet Union had neither the funds nor the time to trial and error.

The Soviet Union came to an end after just a few years of trying. To a certain extent, the development of human technology tree lost a branch. When Moore's Law came to an end in the 21st century, some research institutions returned to the Soviet Union's research direction. However, the investment of a research institute and the trial and error of a few scientists are nowhere near the investment of a country!

This is also the fundamental reason why no substantial breakthrough has been made in this field in the 21st century - because no company has the ability to mobilize the best chemists, materials scientists, and electronics scientists to jointly "research and develop" a certain field.

But the Soviet Union could. In fact, before the collapse of the Soviet Union, they did make some progress in the field of materials. Even scholars from the University of Tokyo spent a few years in this field in the early 21st century.

But it doesn't matter, it's just the personal behavior of a few scholars and can't fundamentally change the situation.

Holding the chess piece in hand, Yuan Jialiu said:

"This... If we do this, won't the risk be too great? What if they really succeed? In that case, we will really be overtaking others!"

This is the new threat, even greater than the threat of "copying and plagiarism". After all, "copying and plagiarism" will always lag behind and eat dust, and will never catch up.

But who can guarantee to “overtake on a curve”?
"Um……"

After a moment of silence, Li Yian said:
"If they can really find a new path, it will be a blessing for all mankind. However, even if they succeed, they will not be able to surpass us! They may even go bankrupt faster!"

(End of this chapter)