Go back in time and be a chaebol

Chapter 563: It’s always fun to overtake (first update, please subscribe)
In fact, except that Li Yian is a capitalist.

Nanyang and Russia are highly similar, at least in terms of industry.

Most of Russia's industries were established in the 30s, or were rebuilt after the war to 30s standards. Russia's rapid economic growth in the 50s was due to these factories and mines.

The same is true for Nanyang's industry, although it relied on German expert engineers to establish a modern industrial system. But they are essentially the technical standards of the 30s.

Of course, the situation in European and American countries is not much better. In order to speed up reconstruction after the war, various countries also chose the mature industrial structure before the war and carried out repeated construction.

These outdated industrial structures are not only inefficient, but also consume a lot of energy and pollute the environment. Therefore, by the 60s, they would all face the same problems - on the one hand, there were changes in the relationship between supply and demand. With the recovery of German industrial production capacity, market supply in various countries exceeded demand, and market competition became increasingly fierce. On the one hand, there is the backward industrial structure, which brings high production costs.

Originally these problems were not very obvious, but in the end, an oil crisis intensified all the problems. As a result, Western countries ushered in the nightmarish 70s, which was actually a period of painful industrial transformation.

The problems they will face will also be faced by Nanyang in the future. It is precisely because of this that Li Yian needs to make arrangements in advance.

However, Paul's explanation not only failed to make Zuo Xiaohan understand, but made him even more confused, he said.

"Is there a problem with this? According to our estimates, according to the current economic development speed, our demand for these products will only increase. Take steel as an example, our steel production needs to reach at least 2000 million tons to meet Basic demand, which is why we proposed 2000 million tons.”

Stimulated by the oil crisis, factories in the West closed down one after another, and a large number of workers became unemployed. While the society was in a state of gloom, it also meant that the large-scale "chimney industry" developed since the end of the 18th century had also come to an end. After the pain passed, new industries that were more efficient, more energy-saving and material-saving were born, and knowledge-intensive industries emerged as the times require. Without the injection of petrodollars, it took more than ten years for the Western economy to gradually bottom out and slowly begin another wave of economic prosperity.

Paul said.

At the same time, Russia, which still followed the "smoke stack industry" model of the 30s, saw its good days come to an end after the best decade, and eventually the empire collapsed.

All the original social and economic problems were resolved with the influx of oil and foreign exchange. As a result, Russia entered the so-called most glorious 70s. During that period, Russia expanded in various ways around the world, and even thought that it was about to surpass the United States and become the world's most powerful country. At that time, they were proud.

"Actually, I didn't quite understand it at the beginning, but your explanation made me understand the truth. With the successful precedent of the "First Fourth Plan", we only need to formulate a larger scale plan in the "Second Fourth Plan" Planning is enough. In fact, it is the accumulation and expansion of production capacity. However, this expansion of production capacity always has an end. When it reaches the critical point of the market, economic development will fall into a certain stagnation, and this stagnation will often end. It will bring about an economic crisis.”

Just as the two sides were arguing, the outbreak of the oil crisis boosted world oil prices and brought overwhelming wealth to Russia, an oil exporter.

As the Director-General of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry, Zuo Xiaohan naturally knew what the basis of the plan formulated by the "Second Fourth Plan" was. It was based on the speed of economic development. Of course, it also added some "speed value", which is the speed value of accelerating development.

Well, it can be understood as Russia's attempt at a market economy. The results of the reform are also very obvious. Activate the market, expand fiscal revenue, and restore vitality to the Russian economy. Of course, it was also attacked by domestic conservatives.

Russia is a lesson. In the 1960s, the development of old industries centered on steel and machinery manufacturing reached a critical point. Like the West, Russia also faced the same problem. After all, no country's economy was as focused on heavy industry as the Soviet Union. So Russia also launched corresponding reforms, namely the "Kosygin Reforms", which according to Russian officials: improved planning and strengthened economic incentives. It is an attempt to carry out economic reform through the introduction of market regulation.

"There is no problem, but the core problem is still "path dependence","

1 million tons of steel!

Although he thought this number was too incredible, Zuo Xiaohan still said,

"If that's the case, are there any problems with the implementation of the plan?"

The United States has not reached this level yet.

Li Yian added from the side.

However, in Li Yian's view, this is the inevitable future development. After all, Japan's steel production later exceeded 1 million tons, and it has maintained this production for a long time. According to the normal development rate, Nanyang's steel output will definitely reach or even exceed this figure.

"2000 million tons is too few. In the long run, it may be 1 million tons!"

This is also the reason why Li Yian directly intervened in the planning of the "Second Fourth Plan".

Zuo Xiaohan said in confusion.

"Now...isn't it too far to say this? As you said, the demand for steel alone in the future will be 100 million tons, and we don't even have one-tenth of it now, right?" Worry!”

Li Yian said.

"What we have to consider is the long-term future. Xiaohan, as far as steel companies are concerned, is there any difference between Donghai Steel and Dongning Steel? In terms of technology?"

"This……"

Facing your Excellency's inquiry, Zuo Xiaohan said after thinking for a moment.

"Except that the main body of the equipment is domestically produced and some equipment is imported from Europe, the United States and other countries, there is not much difference in essence!"

"Yeah, that's the problem!"

Li Yian stood up and said,
"In terms of plan implementation, in order to speed up the pace and ensure the progress of the plan, we tend to choose the mature industrial structure before the war, that is, the industrial structure of the 30s and early 40s. Although there are occasional technological innovations, the overall industrial structure is far from the We are far behind the times. We are already in the s, but we are using the industrial structure of the s to carry out a new round of industrial construction. There is no problem with such repeated construction now, but what about the future? "

Facing your Excellency's rhetorical question, Zuo Xiaohan said.

"This... but the new technology is not mature now. We can't stop eating because of choking. Isn't the most important thing now, development?"

Isn't development the most important thing now? Haven't you always said that the most important thing is development?

"Yes, it is development, but it depends on how it develops and finds a balance between good and fast,"

Li Yian said as he opened the draft plan.

"Compared with the construction through direct investment in industry in the First Fourth Plan, the core of the Second Fourth Plan is the development of industrial policy guidance."

"Industrial policy guides development?"

"Yes, through official funding, companies are encouraged to conduct innovative technological research and apply new technologies to industrial expansion, instead of duplicating construction within the old industrial structure. This may sacrifice some economic development speed, but In the long run, it is beneficial to economic development. Of course, we also need to formulate a series of industrial policies to promote industrial development.”

Manufacturing industrial policy guides and promotes economic development and has successful experience in another world. Japan can be regarded as the country that likes to engage in industrial policy the most in the world. In the early 50s, Japan put forward the goals of equipment modernization and export development, and specially established a "Heavy Machinery Equipment Technical Consulting Agency" to guide the export of complete sets of equipment. In the following ten years, Japan successively promulgated the 'Machinery Industry Promotion Act', the 'Electronics Industry Promotion Act', the 'Light Machinery Export Promotion Act', and the 'Provisional Measures Act for the Promotion of Complete Equipment Exports'.

In every era, ideas for industrial development within 10 years are proposed. In the 70s, it was clearly stated that Japan's catch-up modernization had been completed, that a country based on technology should be replaced by a country based on trade, and that the intensification of creative knowledge should be the development direction of the industrial structure. In fact, it was also a decision made in the face of the end of the "chimney industry" model. Life was not easy in the s either, with years of negative economic growth.

With these lessons learned, Li Yian certainly knows what to pursue.

“We are not just implementing a catch-up modernization national development strategy, we must also catch up, seize the opportunity of technological change, take advantage of the lead, seize the development of science and technology, and achieve breakthroughs in science and technology. And use this to drive the economic development of Nanyang.”

In fact, not to mention Russia, even European and American countries also have serious "path dependence". They are still moving in the direction of "chimney industry" and are fully developing traditional heavy industrial sectors such as steel, machinery, and metals. Modern high technologies such as electronics, new materials, and bioengineering technologies are not responsive. So everyone was in "labor pain" from the mid-to-late 60s to the 70s.

If the old industries do not disappear, there will be no way for new industries to arise. The West's ability to emerge from the pain is entirely a manifestation of the self-regulation of the market economy, which is the so-called "creative destruction."

However, in the process, Russia, which had a large amount of petrodollars injected into it, was immersed in the buy-and-buy mode, thus missing out on development opportunities, and ultimately the technological gap with the United States widened further and further.

Because he understood this period of history, Li Yian proposed to seize the development of science and technology, not to avoid the pain, but to... take advantage of the advantage of rushing to achieve corner overtaking.

From the 1950s to the 1970s, this was a period of twenty years of development opportunities.

Following closely behind the European and American buttocks, looking at the taillights to catch up... Is it cool to overtake directly?

(End of this chapter)