At the end of Qin, I became a son of the plane

Chapter 648: Elderly Care Crisis and the New Second Generation

On April 49, the 4th year of the Han calendar, Chang'an City, Shangshu Terrace.

"The court's policies in the past two years have been too radical, which has affected economic development." Liu Heng sighed while holding the latest data report.

The year before last, after the Global Datong Conference, the emperor transferred Liu Heng to be the Minister of the Chancellery, while the original Minister of the Chancellery Yuan Ang was appointed as the Governor of Yinzhou.

Although the governor of Yinzhou is a military position, the Han Dynasty does not actually have much military affairs in Yinzhou. The main responsibility of the governor of Yinzhou is to supervise the princes of the New World and mediate the conflicts between the princes of the New World.

Majesty is determined by strength. Compared with the nobles of the Han Dynasty, the nobles of the New World are more lawless. Especially after decades of development, the third generations of princes in the New World have begun to grow up. Their living conditions are obviously much better than those of their fathers. In addition, since they were born in the local area, almost no one can control them, so they develop a lawless and domineering temper.

In recent years, conflicts between the princes in the New World have occurred frequently. Most of them are caused by three generations of princes leading their own soldiers to fight. The reason for their fighting may be just for a tree or a few acres of land. If such small conflicts are not stopped, they can easily lead to greater conflicts between the princes.

In the past, the governor of Yinzhou in the Han Dynasty was usually a military general. When the court asked him to stop a conflict, the governor of Yinzhou would directly send troops to suppress it, which would more easily intensify the conflict and lead the conflict between the princes to the Han court. In order to balance the conflicts between the princes, Xu Aimin sent Yuan Ang, who was good at maneuvering, as the governor of Yinzhou.

Xu Aimin invited Liu Heng to the important position of Shangshu Ling.

After Liu Heng became the Shangshu Ling and understood the overall situation of the Han Dynasty, he found that the economic development of the Han Dynasty in the past two years was not as fast as he had imagined. The increase in tax revenue had slowed down significantly, while local fiscal expenditures were constantly increasing. The financial balance of the Han Dynasty was in jeopardy.

Although Prime Minister Chen Rui had a long career, high prestige and was a student of the emperor, his tough military style caused a lot of dissatisfaction in the local area.

During the years that Chen Rui served as prime minister, he vigorously expanded the power of the court, vigorously set up vertical management institutions of the court at the local level, and interfered in local government affairs, which caused great dissatisfaction among local county magistrates. In the past, the court had been strict with them, but now it was also interfering in local government affairs. This meant that they were replacing the chief officials with petty officials. As a result, there were constant conflicts between the local governments and the court in recent years, and the two sides fought very fiercely. During these years, Chen Rui dismissed four prefects and forcefully suppressed local forces.

But the local county governors were not to be outdone. When Chen Rui completed his first term four years ago, the local county governors of the Han Dynasty secretly united together. They used their influence to interfere with the wise man's decision-making and almost overthrew Chen Rui's position as prime minister. It was the emperor's strong support for Chen Rui that prevented him from becoming a lame prime minister with only one term.

Although the prime minister of the Han Dynasty had a term of five years, in principle it was possible to retire after serving five years as prime minister. However, the previous prime ministers had served two terms, and Chen Rui only served one term. This would definitely be ridiculed by people all over the world, and it would also be a great blow to Chen Rui.

However, because of the Sages Conference four years ago, Chen Rui and the local governor almost fell out, and his policies became more radical. He expanded the Shaofu factory on a large scale, increased the management of the core pillar factories, eliminated unqualified managers on a large scale, and strengthened the construction of management systems.

However, due to local interference, the number of factories directly controlled by the court increased, and the control over the Han economy was strengthened, but the economic data did not grow rapidly. Instead, the growth was lower than expected.

Moreover, after the Han Dynasty increased its economic control, a large number of merchants invested their money in the vassal states of Southeast Asia, India, the Xiongnu, the Qinzhou, and the New World. According to the above statistics, hundreds of billions of money flowed out of the Han Dynasty almost every year and were invested in various countries in the world.

Although the Han Dynasty court had long been aware of this situation, it had never found a good way to solve it. Although the Han Dynasty was wealthy, its market had stabilized after decades of development. All industries had a certain scale, and the profits of industrial products were generally between 10% and 20%. Unless it was a new industry, it would be difficult to get rich quickly by making several times the profit like in the Age of Discovery.

Therefore, although the business environment in the Han Dynasty was good, internal competition was fierce, the quality requirements for goods were high, the protection of craftsmen was strong, and the profits were low. This made it difficult for merchants to accept. Merchants were afraid of low profits, just like nature is afraid of a vacuum.

As for other vassal states and countries of the Han Dynasty, these regions were either undergoing industrialization or still in the era of large-scale development. These vassal states with no industry could easily earn more than 30% profit by transporting some rails and iron ingots, let alone making profits by building factories.

Moreover, in other countries, financial control was not as strict as that in the Han Dynasty, and those big merchants could easily make several times more profit in the stock market of the Xiongnu Kingdom. The money in their hands was very restricted in the Han Dynasty, but in other countries outside the Han Dynasty, they could make money from money, and they did not have to be exploited by the court and craftsmen. Guided by the interests, the merchants of the Han Dynasty naturally went out to invest in other countries.

Fortunately, although the money flowed out of the Han Dynasty, it returned to the Han Dynasty in the form of purchasing Han Dynasty's industrial products. To some extent, these merchants have balanced the global trade system. It is also good for the development of the Han Dynasty's industry. Just like now, many countries in the world are building railways in large quantities. The Han Dynasty exports more than 300 million tons of rails every year, and this growth trend has not slowed down. The Han Dynasty's cloth, machinery, tractors, and transport ships are also the most in short supply. This is why the Han Dynasty does not restrict the flow of funds. The Han Dynasty occupies the upstream of the global industrial chain. The money that flows out will eventually be earned back by the Han Dynasty's industrial industry.

However, the economic development was not as good as expected, which led to the fiscal revenue of the Han Dynasty not being as good as expected. This was a serious matter for the Han Dynasty, and it would even affect the development of the Han Dynasty's industry and infrastructure. The fiscal philosophy of the Han Dynasty has always been to balance revenue and expenditure. Based on last year's fiscal revenue, plus a certain amount of fiscal growth, the fiscal expenditure for the next year is determined. Generally, there will not be a large deficit, and even if there is a deficit, the debt can be repaid in the next year.

However, the fiscal expenditure of the Han Dynasty has continued to increase in recent years, and the expansion is difficult to stop. If the fiscal revenue cannot offset the fiscal expenditure, the fiscal balance of the Han Dynasty will be broken.

The main reason for the rapid increase in the fiscal deficit of the Han Dynasty is that there are more and more elderly people in the Han Dynasty. Last year, the number of people over the age of 313 in the Han Dynasty had reached 500 million, and the Han court needed to guarantee a minimum pension of 6000 coins for each elderly person (mainly in the form of various materials, and pensions are given by local factories in different regions). The annual pension expense for an elderly person is 300 coins. The Han Dynasty has to pay 180 billion coins in pensions for 10 million retired elderly people, which is almost % of the Han Dynasty's fiscal revenue. What's more critical is that the Han Dynasty now has to increase the number of elderly people who need to pay pensions by more than every year, which is equivalent to an annual increase of billion coins in the Han Dynasty's fiscal expenditure, and this is just the expenditure on pensions.

As people age, their demand for medical care increases. In recent years, the Han Dynasty's medical expenses have also increased. Last year, the Han Dynasty's medical expenses officially exceeded 100 billion yuan.

Moreover, for the Han Dynasty, the crisis has not really arrived yet. The Han Dynasty has been established for nearly 50 years, and the founding generation is aging rapidly. This group of people lived in a prosperous era. At that time, the food supply and income of the Han Dynasty increased rapidly. In addition, there was a complete medical system, and a large number of newborns survived. Since the founding of the Han Dynasty, the number of births each year has never been less than 200 million.

Except for a few who died unexpectedly, most of these people could live to be 60 years old. Half of this population was separated to other vassal states of the Han Dynasty, but there were still millions of people in the Han Dynasty itself. That is to say, in ten years at most, there will be millions of elderly people in the Han Dynasty who will need to receive pensions every year. This means a fiscal expenditure of 60 billion yuan, and the demand for medical care from these elderly people will cause medical expenses to skyrocket. These two items alone will increase expenses by tens of billions. You can imagine how tight the finances of the Han Dynasty will be in ten years.

The Han Dynasty has already noticed this crisis. Last year, the fiscal deficit of the Han Dynasty exceeded 20 billion yuan. One billion yuan of this was due to the fact that fiscal revenue was lower than expected, and another billion yuan was because there were 16 more elderly people receiving pensions last year.

It was the sudden increase of 16 in pension expenditures last year that made the Han court aware of the problem of pension expenses and predicted the pension crisis of the Han Dynasty in the next ten years. Newspapers and periodicals in the Han Dynasty have begun to discuss the pension crisis of the Han Dynasty and want to find various ways to solve this crisis.

After all, the Han Dynasty has been promoting benevolence and filial piety for the past fifty years. The Han Daily proudly wrote an article that the Han Dynasty's benevolence and filial piety far exceeded that of three generations. No other court in history has provided pensions to the elderly, only the Han Dynasty has done so. The elderly are no longer a burden on society, but have become a treasure in the family. This is not just a familiar saying, but also has real support. As long as there is an elderly person in the family, the pension of this elderly person can provide daily food for the family. If the elderly are retired craftsmen, their income will be higher, almost half of the main labor force in the family.

When the number of people over 60 in the Han Dynasty exceeded one million, newspapers and magazines in the Han Dynasty thought that this was a sign of prosperity, and that only in the Han Dynasty could there be so many people over 60. But what no one expected was that after only a few years, the prosperous scene had become a huge burden for the Han Dynasty.

Just as Liu Heng was sorting out the data of the Secretariat and preparing to hand it over to the emperor, Xu Aimin brought Jia Yi to the Secretariat.

Liu Heng led a group of ministers to salute and said, "Your Majesty."

Xu Aimin waved his hand and said, "No need to be polite."

Then he pointed to a minister and said, "Go and find the population register of my Han Dynasty."

"Yes!" Soon the Shangshu found the population statistics file. Xu Aimin flipped through the file, found the data and smiled bitterly: "In the 18th year of the First Emperor, the Han Dynasty will have more elderly people who need to pay pensions, which will increase pension expenses by nearly billion."

Of course, more than 18 people were born in the 50 years of the First Emperor's reign. However, during the 60 years of the First Emperor's reign, the Qin Dynasty was conquering the Baiyue in the south and directly immigrated 18 people. In the next ten years, there was the Chidao, until the northern expedition to the Huns and the Qin and Han wars. years ago, there were only elderly people who were still alive today.

Liu Heng said: "Your Majesty, there are people coming in and out, and the pressure on the court is not as great as it appears in the household registration."

Although the number of people in their sixties is increasing rapidly in Han, due to the level of medical care, there are still very few people who can reach their seventies. The number of years that an elderly person can receive a pension is roughly 5 to 8 years.

Jia Yi took the data from the emperor and continued to read: "There are 17 people born in the 20st year of the First Emperor, and people born in the nd year of the First Emperor."

The numbers kept getting bigger and bigger. When the Han Dynasty reached the fourth year, the population suddenly increased to millions. That year was the second year after the Han Dynasty entered Guanzhong. In order to stabilize the country, the emperor provided relief to the people on a large scale, distributed land equally and reduced taxes. As a result, the Lantian granary was almost completely emptied, and the grain in Ao Cang was reduced by half. The people finally had a stable life and could have children. The country was officially at peace.

Xu Aimin said: "The court can still be maintained now, but this may not be the case in a few years. The issue of elderly care has become something that must be resolved."

Jia Yi had thought about this problem a long time ago, and he immediately said, "If the court wants to solve this problem, it must increase revenue and reduce expenditure. To increase revenue, the court can find new industries that can generate a large amount of fiscal revenue, or impose a pension tax to offset this part of the pension expenses. To reduce expenditure, the court can reduce pension expenses and restore the monthly provision of 2 dan of grain per elderly person to the original level. This can explain 8% of the expenses, and the pension problem will not be a problem for a hundred years."

The solution Jia Yi thought of was simple and crude. He believed that the imperial court did not have the ability to support millions of elderly people, so he tried to find a way to reduce some unnecessary expenses and maintain the simplest pension expenses. He could only do things within his ability.

The same concept applies to pension tax. The imperial court does not have the money. If the people of the entire Han Dynasty approve of the current imperial court's spending on pensions for the elderly, then everyone should pay for it. Anyway, this is taken from the people and used for the people.

Liu Heng immediately shook his head and said, "It's easy to raise welfare but hard to reduce it. If it is really reduced by 80%, millions of families in the Han Dynasty will be affected. It's not easy to collect pension tax. It requires a long period of publicity."

Xu Aimin also shook his head and said, "Your method is too crude. Let's think of a better solution."

Just a few years ago, Xu Aimin announced to the world that the Han Dynasty had completed the construction of a primary affluent society and was now moving towards a middle-affluent society. In just a few years, he reduced pensions and increased pension taxes. Isn't this tantamount to slapping himself in the face?

He also knew that 500 coins were not much for the rich, but they were crucial for many elderly people in poor areas. Without this money, they might not live to be . The number of elderly people in the Han Dynasty has increased so rapidly in recent years, and this money is also one of the crucial factors. He could not save money, and he could not find a way to increase income without affecting the lives of the people. This was the crux of the problem.

Liu Heng dragged his heavy body back from the Shangshu Mansion to the Peihou Mansion.

At this time, the housekeeper said, "Master, the eldest lady is back."

Liu Heng smiled and said, "A Piao is back."

When he walked into the hall, he saw his eldest daughter Liu Piao and son-in-law Chen Wu. They were talking with his eldest son Liu Qi and second son Liu Wu, while several children were playing beside them.

When Liu Piao saw her father, she immediately called out to her three children, saying, "Come and greet your grandfather."

Chen Xu, Chen Jiao, and Chen Ajiao immediately knelt down and said, "Greetings, Grandfather."

Liu Heng smiled happily and said, "Okay, get up quickly."

Then he picked up Chen Ajiao and said with a smile: "Little Ajiao has grown up again."

Then Liu Heng asked the housekeeper to prepare dinner, and the family enjoyed family happiness.

After dinner, Chen Wu and Liu Piao came to Liu Heng's study. They both wanted to tell Liu Heng something, but they both refused to speak.

Liu Heng asked: "What do you want?"

Chen Wu was unwilling to speak, so Liu Piao had to speak up in the end: "Father, the steel industry has been booming in recent years. Uncle Ge's vassal state in Nanyang has discovered a high-quality iron ore. It is said that 60% of it is better than all the iron ore in the Han Dynasty. We would like to ask you to approve a note and get two 10,000-ton transport ships for our daughter."

When Liu Heng heard this, he became more and more angry. He laughed angrily and said, "You think too highly of my father. He is just an ordinary Han official."

Liu Piao immediately said, "Father is the emperor's confidant. It is said that next year you will be promoted to the position of Shaofu Ling, one of the Nine Ministers. That is the most powerful department in the entire Han Dynasty. Who dares not to give father face?"

"And they are just two transport ships. It's not a big deal for you, father. We transport iron ore to solve the problem of insufficient iron ore in the Han Dynasty. You don't know that the cost of smelting iron with 30% iron ore and 60% iron ore is different. The steel industry in Kuaiji County has been booming in recent years, relying on high-quality iron ore from overseas."

Liu Heng said solemnly, "Father has been in Kuaiji County for nearly ten years, how could he not know this?"

Then he looked at his son-in-law Chen Wu and said in a stern tone, "Does your Tangyi Marquis' Mansion still need this little money?"

Chen Wu didn't dare to speak for a while. There were only a few founding fathers of the Han Dynasty. The current Prime Minister Chen Rui was almost the only remaining elder, and Chen Rui was about to retire. In the political arena of the Han Dynasty, Chen Mai, Zhang Pijiang, and Liu Heng were the emperor's confidants. Although Liu Heng was only a Shangshu Ling with a salary of 2000 dan, his position was as powerful as that of the nine ministers of the Han Dynasty. Moreover, the Liu family was extremely prosperous in the Han Dynasty, and there were several people with salaries of more than 2000 dan. His father-in-law Liu Heng was the head of the Liu family, and he might even become the prime minister of the Han Dynasty. So when his father-in-law got angry, he was trembling with fear and didn't dare to speak.

Liu Piao had been favored by Liu Heng since she was a child. Seeing that her husband did not dare to speak, she immediately said, "Father, this is not illegal or disorderly. Everyone does this. We are also serving the court."

(End of this chapter)