I'm the Dauphin in France

Chapter 630 Trade War and Deterrence

Talleyrand went to Russia to attend Potemkin's funeral the day after.

Second floor of the Tuileries Palace.

Joseph frowned and looked at Brian and Mirabeau who looked serious, and finally his eyes fell on Trade Minister Bailly: "So, which countries support Salzburg's proposal?"

Bailey took a breath and said, "At present, except for Baden, which has sent people to seek our opinion and has not yet expressed its position, the other contracting parties should agree to vote on Britain's accession to the Rhine-Seine Treaty."

Brian said angrily: "There is no need for the UK to join the trade agreement between France and Germany. This is obviously manipulated by someone behind the scenes."

Given the size of Britain's colonies and its industrial capacity, how could it be willing to open its market to these small countries in southern Germany and do good deeds?
Bailly nodded. "I think the southern German countries want to put forward other conditions during the negotiations. In fact, Bavaria and Salzburg have asked to renegotiate the tariffs many times before, but we rejected them all."

Mirabeau said: "Your Highness, recently there have been large-scale protests by workshop owners in the southern German countries. They are mainly aimed at the competition from our country.

"In the past two years, they have been losing a lot of market share under the pressure of our products."

Bailly worried: "According to the current trend, if a vote is held, the countries that support Britain's joining should have an absolute majority."

The room was quiet for a moment. Brian hesitated and said, "Your Highness, perhaps we can negotiate with Austria and Bavaria in advance and agree to their appropriate increase in tariffs.

"As long as these two countries oppose it, Britain's participation in the trade agreement will definitely not be passed."

The southern German countries basically act according to Austria's wishes, while Bavaria is the second largest country.

Joseph shook his head in thought: "Archbishop Brian, how much tariff do you think they should add to achieve the desired trade pattern?"

Brian turned and looked at Bailey.

The latter said hurriedly: "Your Highness, I have estimated that Austria will have to raise tariffs on our advantageous industries by at least 40%, and other industries by about 15%, before they will be barely satisfied. Other countries will need to raise tariffs even higher."

Joseph smiled and said, “This will be higher than the tariffs we had before the Rhine-Seine Treaty.

"At present, our industry is in a period of rapid development. If we suddenly lose the southern German market, it will lead to a wave of bankruptcies of factories. It will take at least 3 to 5 years to recover the upward momentum."

This is the law of economic development. The faster the development speed, the more confident investors will be, thus borrowing large amounts of money to expand production.

If the market can absorb the output at this time, the profit will be several times more than before. On the contrary, if there is a problem in the market, there will be a large backlog of goods immediately, and the previous large investment will become a terrible debt.

Brian sighed: "Your Highness, but it is difficult for us..."

Joseph narrowed his eyes and said in a deep voice: "When we signed the agreement, we gave them enough preferential conditions.

"After that, we relied on hard work to gain the competitive advantage of our products, so we should never compromise with them just because they are not enterprising enough!"

He brought a lot of advanced technologies and concepts such as standardized production, and then carried out financial reforms, tax reforms, removed domestic market barriers, and even built a lot of rail transit.

After this series of combined punches, how could the southern German countries relying on "natural evolution" possibly compete with France?

Not to mention them, even Britain has been surpassed by France in many aspects of industrial production technology and domestic systems. It can only maintain its industrial advantage by relying on its huge colonial market.

Bailly carefully reminded, "Your Highness, even if our country boycotts, the British will still join the Rhine-Seine Treaty as long as the majority of the contracting parties vote in favor." Brian exhaled and said with great momentum, "If this is the case, then we can only use war to make them make the right decision."

Joseph immediately shook his head.

France's current development momentum is very good, and going to war will inevitably interrupt this trend.

Moreover, judging from the fact that Britain was eager to get involved in the trade dispute between France and Germany, it was obvious that it hoped that France would fight with the southern German countries.

Several ministers looked at each other in surprise.

Brian said with some difficulty: "Your Highness, now we must choose between compromise and war..."

Joseph was recalling the 21st century, an era when major powers were reluctant to start a war, and how to deal with similar situations.

After a moment, he smiled and said, "Between compromise and war, there is actually another mode, and that is deterrence."

"deterrence?"

Joseph nodded and looked at Bailly: "Mr. Bailly, when is the voting date proposed by Salzburg?"

"Two months from now, Your Highness, the vote will be held in Munich."

Joseph thought for a moment and said, "Please inform other countries to vote in Karlsruhe in 20 days."

Karlsruhe is the largest city in northern Baden and is also the only way from eastern France to southern Germany.

Although Baiyi didn't know the Crown Prince's intention, he still bowed and said immediately out of absolute trust in His Highness, "Yes, Your Highness, I have to leave immediately so that I can notify so many countries."

Joseph continued, "You will also have to conduct secret negotiations with Baden, Württemberg, Augsburg, and Hesse, offering low-interest loans in exchange for their votes against the proposal to accept Britain."

Bai was stunned for a moment, and said carefully: "Your Highness, please forgive me for being frank, but the southern German countries obviously hope to use this opportunity to change the trade pattern, so a small loan may not be able to change their attitude."

Joseph smiled and said, "Then lend them a little more. Oh, 4 million francs for Baden and Württemberg, 6 million for Augsburg, and 1 million for Hesse. I believe they will seriously consider it."

This time, it was Brian's turn to turn pale. He waved his hands hurriedly and said, "Your Highness, we can't afford so much money right now..."

Joseph interrupted him and said, "No, we have. Print 2 million francs of banknotes for them. As long as the money can buy goods from France, they will be willing to accept it."

Brian dissuaded again: "Your Highness, so many banknotes pouring into our country will seriously affect the stability of the currency value."

He recalled the horrific scene during the Mississippi Incident when French paper currency depreciated by more than half every day.

It was that crisis that made France afraid of paper money for decades. It was not until the Crown Prince took control of the French banking industry that people were able to regain confidence in paper money.

If the paper currency depreciates severely again, it will inevitably bring back painful memories among the people and may even lead to a boycott of the paper currency.

(End of this chapter)