My life is like walking on thin ice

Chapter 343 School Examination
As Wei Qing finished speaking, Liu Rong's hand, which was casually lying on his leg, was involuntarily raised - Liu Rong brought it to his mouth and gently rubbed the area under his lips with the tip of his index finger.

As for the bowl of medicine that Liu Rong was holding in front of his chest, it had already been taken over by the temple servant beside him.

——Wei Qing’s words undoubtedly caused a certain degree of impact on Liu Rong’s inherent cognition.

In the past, although the Han family's analysis and review of the Han-Xiongnu Battle of Pingcheng were varied, the core ideas were generally consistent.

Regarding Han Wangxin's decision to surrender to the enemy, the mainstream view has always been that Han Wangxin did not act on impulse because he was afraid of the enemy in battle, but was well prepared to surrender to the enemy with his entire country.

The reason is that Han Wangxin's original capital was not Mayi, where he eventually surrendered, but Jinyang, the later capital of Dai.

Han Wangxin's Han State is actually the Taiyuan County of Dai State today.

As for moving the capital from Jinyang to Mayi, it was Han Wangxin who took the initiative to submit a petition to the Emperor Taizu Gao on the grounds that "Mayi is closer to the front line and more conducive to border security."

The capital Jinyang, originally in the heart of Dai State, was moved to Mayi, the front line, by Han Wangxin.
Then, King Han Xin opened the city gates to welcome the "Xiongnu army", and later he led his army to turn against the Han Dynasty and attacked the Han territory as the "Xiongnu King Han". He also instigated Chen Xi, the prime minister of Dai at that time, to rebel together.

If this wasn't premeditated or even carefully planned, it would be too much of a coincidence.

After Han Wangxin defected and Dai Xiang Chen Xi raised troops at the same time, and even made contact with Taizu Gaohuangdi's half-brother, Yan Wang Lu Wan, the direction of the war became very clear.

——Han and Dai at that time, which are now the Dai Kingdom, and the Yan Kingdom, had actually broken away from the control of the Han Dynasty!
Zhaodi, which was supposed to be the strategic command center of the northern wall defense line, has become the front line.

Therefore, regarding the Xiongnu Chanyu Maodun's halt after crossing Mayi and stepping into Dai from the gap in the Great Wall of Zhao, the mainstream Han view was that this was Maodun's "central" coordination, waiting for Han Wangxin, Dai Xiang Chen Xi, and even Yan Wang Lu Wan, who were secretly ready to make a move, to make something of themselves.

After all, the Han troops were obtained for free. Letting them fight with the Han central army while he sat back and watched the Xiongnu army fight, reaping the benefits, was the best option for Maodun.

Liu Rong has always believed so.

With the help of Han Wangxin's defection, Dai Xiang Chen Xi's uprising, and Yan Wang Lu Wan secretly sending envoys to contact him, Maodun has already controlled most of the Han Dynasty's northern defense line!
At the same time, Maodun also had the opportunity to plunder the troops of Han Wangxin, Dai Xiang Chen Xi, and Yan Wang Lu Wan without sacrificing a single soldier or a clan, and then wait for the opportunity to reap the fruits.

Therefore, Maodun stationed his troops in the Loufan area, waiting for good news from Han Wangxin, Chen Xi, Lu Wan and others.

As for the later period, when Emperor Taizu Gao led the army in person and won first and then lost - first he defeated the Huns in succession with an unstoppable force and attacked the troops dispatched by Han Wangxin and Dai Xiang Chen Xi, but then he underestimated the enemy and advanced rashly, falling into Maodun's trap. Everyone thought it was a coincidence.

Because before that war, whether in the Zhou Dynasty or in the Qin Dynasty which briefly unified China, it had been a long time since a king of the Chinese civilization had personally led troops to fight against the nomadic peoples of the grassland.

——If we really have to count on our fingers, the last Chinese monarch who personally led troops to fight against nomadic peoples was King Wuling of Zhao, who wore Hu clothing and rode and shot arrows nearly a hundred years ago!

Therefore, the mainstream opinion is that Maodun had no expectation at all that Emperor Taizu Liu Bang would lead the army in person, and was even greatly surprised.

It was precisely because of his lack of psychological preparation and his miscalculation of the intensity of the response from the Chang'an court that Maodun was defeated several times in succession by Emperor Taizu Liu Bang in the early stages of the battle.

As for the subsequent strategy of luring the enemy deep into our territory and then besieging Emperor Taizu on Mount Baideng, everyone believed that this was the "last trump card" that Maodun came up with after he knew that he could not fight the enemy head-on.

If it succeeds, it will succeed. If it fails, we will retreat to the grassland.

In the past, although Liu Rong felt that there was something wrong - he felt that this statement was somewhat arrogant, but he still reluctantly accepted it.

But today, when Wei Qing proposed for the first time that the entire Pingcheng Campaign was a conspiracy against Emperor Taizu Liu Bang - a "game", Liu Rong fell into deep thought.

Before Wei Qing, no one had ever proposed this idea, let alone dared to think about it.

Because it's so scary!

This possibility is really terrifying!

You have to know that in a war, there are many factors that may affect the direction of the war.

Any insignificant change may very likely lead the entire war in a direction that no one had expected.

Therefore, even the most complete and comprehensive pre-war planning model of the Han Dynasty, or the entire known world, the Chinese court has never made a complete plan for a war.

For example, in the past Hetao-Mayi Battle, the Han Dynasty's strategists never said: the first step is like this, the second step is like this, the third step is like this... the penultimate step is like this, the last step is like this, and then it ends perfectly.

Instead, he only gave a rough strategic goal: to defend the city of Mayi and delay the main force of the Xiongnu in the battlefield, to seize Hetao as much as possible in the battlefield of Hetao and gain a foothold as soon as possible.

As for the specific techniques and tactics, except for the two Suiying captains who had been prepared for a long time and were responsible for building a bridge before the army crossed the river to launch a surprise attack on Hetao, the court did not interfere at all, but handed over the wartime command power to the front-line generals.

——It was not that the Han court was generous and willing to give generals room to play freely;
It's not that Liu Rong is a thick-skinned person who ignores the careful planning and contingency plans and just "leaves everything to fate" in such an important battle.

The real reason for doing this is that a complete and overly detailed battle plan is meaningless.

Let me give you an extremely simple example.

It is still the past Hetao-Mayi Battle, the part targeting the Hetao battlefield.

Who could have thought that after the Han army soldiers set foot on Henan, not only did they not provoke a frenzied counterattack from the garrisoned tribes, but they also won the surrender of more than a dozen tribes?

Let’s talk about the battlefield of Mayi - including Liu Rong and even Cheng Buzhi himself: Who would have thought that Junchen’s determination to return to Hetao to support was so great that even Cheng Buzhi’s abandonment of Mayi and using the entire Daibei area as bait could not shake it in the slightest?
The bottom line is: the more detailed the war plan is, the more possibilities it should take into account.

The direction of the war itself has countless possibilities.

It is not impossible to list every possibility and make corresponding preparations and responses one by one;

But the strength required to do so would be staggeringly huge.

In other words: If the Han Dynasty really had the ability to make targeted preparations for every possibility in a Han-Xiongnu war, then based on the Han Dynasty's strength, this war would most likely not have to be fought, and there would have been no need to fight at all.

- When you have an aircraft carrier and your enemy is a cannibal armed only with bows and spears, do you need to make a battle plan?
No need.

You don't even have to fight the war to get the enemy's surrender.

Therefore, whether it is the current Han Dynasty or the dynasties that followed - as long as the enemy and us are evenly matched, it is difficult to make overly detailed war plans.

At best, it means setting a general strategic goal, and then saying to the generals: I want this result, as for how to do it specifically, it is up to the general to decide on the spot.

Being able to make decisions on the spot was the only requirement placed on generals in the feudal era.

The better you do in this regard, the closer you will be to the surrender of the "great general".

Therefore, in the past, no one had ever thought about, and no one dared to attribute the Emperor Taizu Gao’s capture at the Siege of Baideng to a conspiracy by the Xiongnu Chanyu Maodun.

But today, Wei Qing raised this possibility that no one had ever dared to think of.

Liu Rong didn't understand, but was greatly shocked. At the same time, his curiosity was completely aroused by this man who would later become the Marquis of Changping and the Grand Marshal.

"As early as after entering the palace, when I took out the first military book from the Shiqu Pavilion and handed it to Wei Zhonglang, I discussed this with Wei Zhonglang."

"——The military has no fixed position, and water has no fixed shape."

"Compared to being prepared for everything and being ahead of the enemy at every step, it is more important and more realistic to respond to situations as they arise."

"Every war and every military book in the past has proven this point."

"If that's the case, why did Wei Zhonglang make such outrageous statements, saying that Maodun's siege of Emperor Taizu Gao was premeditated?"

Although there was some accusation in his words, Liu Rong's tone was more of curiosity.

Liu Rong was very curious and at the same time was looking forward to what kind of explanation Wei Qing could give for this shocking topic.

Liu Rong had a hunch;

I feel as if I am personally there - as a 'contemporary person', I witness with my own eyes the reasons why the Marquis of Changping became successful in history.

Wei Qing had obviously anticipated Liu Rong's curiosity.

In fact, Liu Rong's reaction was much calmer than Wei Qing expected.

This was not the first time that Wei Qing expressed this view to others.

Earlier, Wei Qing had put forward this view when discussing - or consulting - with veteran generals such as Han Tuidang, Luan Bu, and Li Ji.

But compared to Liu Rong's curiosity, the reactions of the old generals were relatively intense.

——Everyone agreed that Wei Qing was exaggerating!

To put it bluntly, it means thinking too much and fighting wits with the air.

As to whether this possibility exists, whether Wei Qing's point of view is worth pondering, whether it is worth studying in depth, or even whether they should look at Wei Qing with new eyes because of it, the old generals sneered.

Not only did he not look up to Wei Qing for this, but he also ridiculed him in front of Wei Qing, saying that he was "another favorite of an external relative."

With the control group, Wei Qing was very grateful for Liu Rong's willingness to listen to his detailed explanation.

When he spoke, he inexplicably had more confidence and a calmness that seemed to come from a position of complete control.

"I have this thought, but it is just a guess."

"——I'm afraid no one knows the truth except Maodun himself."

"After all, even Gong Gaohou, who grew up on the grassland, has never heard anyone talk about this view."

"But war is often about guessing the enemy's true intentions and taking precautions against several possibilities that have a greater impact on several parties."

"So, I am making a bold guess. I hope Your Majesty will not be offended..."

First, he gave an explanation for his "fantastic" behavior, and took the initiative to state that he was the "trial speaker" and obtained Liu Rong's speech immunity;

Taking another deep breath, Wei Qing began the first highlight moment of his life.

"I believe that a general needs to set two goals before a war begins."

“For the first goal, there will definitely be an opportunity and it is more likely to be achieved.”

“And the second goal is that there may be opportunities. Although it is difficult to succeed, the benefits are extremely considerable.”

"In war, generals need to ensure that the first goal is achieved and look for opportunities to achieve the second goal."

···
"For example, in the Battle of Pingcheng, the first goal of the Xiongnu leader Maodun was to disrupt the border walls of the Han Dynasty through Han Wangxin, Dai Xiang Chen Xi, and Yan Wang Lu Wan, the kings and ministers who guarded the border, thereby weakening the border defense of the Han Dynasty."

"At the same time, plunder our northern border wall of Han."

"Assuming that Han Wangxin is certain to defect to the Han and surrender to the Hu, Dai Xiang Chen Xi is certain to raise an army to rebel, and Yan Wang Lu Wan is also secretly in collusion and ready to make a move, this first goal is very easy to achieve."

"And Maodun's second goal - let's assume that: to lure Emperor Taizu's lone army deep into the territory, so that he can surround and annihilate him, or even capture him alive!"

"Then everything makes sense."

In just a few words, Wei Qing's reserved, modest, and even overly modest temperament had long been replaced by a vigorous vitality that was not appropriate for a young man.

Wei Qing was seen with his head held high and chest puffed out, his hands behind his back, facing Liu Rong and gazing at the vast sky outside the palace gate.

"Before the war, Maodun probably thought: Even if this war turns out badly, we can still plunder some supplies and people from the Han border, so that the Xiongnu can have a good winter."

"At the same time, as long as Han Wangxin, Dai Xiang Chen Xi and others keep their promises, there is a high probability that they will disrupt the Han border and make the Han family too tired to guard the border and unable to pose a threat to the grassland."

"As for the second goal - the reason why I have this guess is that I think that Maodun's attitude towards our Han family at that time was more of a test than an attack."

"After all, before the Battle of Pingcheng, which was no more than ten years before the end of Qin Shi Huangdi's reign, the vast grasslands under the rule of the Donghu were still nomadic, with nomadic people fleeing at the sight of the Qin black dragon flag. They didn't dare to draw their bows and arrows, let alone go south to herd horses."

···
"After the fall of Qin and the rise of Han, there were many wars, but for the Xiongnu, it was just a change of dynasty and a new royal family in the Central Plains."

"But I, Zhu Xia, am still Zhu Xia."

"——Although the Qin Black Dragon Flag no longer exists, the Liu Han state is still the descendants of Yan and Huang and the nobles of the Chinese nation."

"So, even though Maodun Mingdi killed his father and defeated Donghu and Yuezhi successively, and thought he was the overlord of the grassland, I am afraid he still has no confidence in our Han family."

"If you are unsure, you will naturally try;"

"And the best way to test a new dynasty is undoubtedly to test their king."

"That is the founding emperor of our Han dynasty: Emperor Taizu..."

(End of this chapter)