The literary era since 1979

At Columbia University, the bell rang outside the classroom.

The students were restless and whispering, but no one stood up and left because the professor who was giving the lecture had not left yet.

After Marcus wrote "Guns, Viruses, and Steel" on the blackboard, he showed the physical book to everyone:
"Summer vacation is coming soon. I would like to recommend a book for after-school reading. It is written by a Chinese scholar and is called Guns, Viruses, and Steel. I hope that after reading this book, you can choose one and write a review. This can be regarded as a holiday homework."

As soon as these words came out, the whole hall was in an uproar.

"This book has recently caused a huge wave in the academic community."

Marcus said Columbia University is very fortunate to have invited the author of this book to give a lecture at the school, and those who are interested can sign up with the teaching assistant.

As soon as Marcus left, the students in the classroom began to discuss:

"A book on world history written by a Chinese? Haha, I didn't hear it wrong."

"That is, what good things can the Chinese write?"

"This author also wrote Saving Private Ryan and won the National Book Award."

"I remember that the movie directed by Spielberg is called Saving Private Ryan, and it will be released in the summer."

"That might actually be worth a look."

"Whether it's worth it or not, this is the homework assigned by the professor. Do you dare not read it? Let's go buy books together."

"What about the lecture? Do you want to go together?"

"Forget it. I've already made an appointment to attend Benjamin Graham's 50th anniversary speech on Security Analysis."

"me too!"

"It is said that Bill Ruane, the manager of Sequoia Capital, and Tom Knapp of Tweety Booth will be present. I must ask them what they should do to be as successful as them and make so much money."

"........."

Faced with the discussions of the American students, Lv Xiaobo left the classroom with a grim face.

He came to Columbia University for further studies at public expense because many of China's top people graduated from Columbia University.

Like Liang Shiqiu, Xu Zhimo, Jin Yuelin, Feng Youlan, Gu Weijun, Ma Yinchu...

I also dream of returning to my country after completing my studies like these predecessors. Now, when I heard the name of "Fangyan", I immediately ran to the bookstore outside the school to buy "Guns, Viruses, and Steel". I went to three bookstores before I bought it, but it was not because the circulation was small and the distribution was not wide.

The sales were so hot that bookstores that had purchased a small amount of stock sold out in a short time.

The more this happened, the more Lu Xiaobo wanted to read Fangyan's book.

After buying the book and returning to the dormitory, he couldn't wait to open it and read it. He ended up reading until dawn and actually read all night long.

"It was actually written by us Chinese. What a masterpiece!"

Lu Xiaobo couldn't help but sigh, and then without even caring about sleeping, he picked up his pen to write a letter to Wang Xiaobo, who was studying for a master's degree at the Center for East Asian Studies in Pittsburgh.

At the same time, he also recommended "Guns, Viruses, and Steel" to the Chinese students studying abroad at Columbia University.

Many overseas Chinese had already heard of the dialect and immediately became interested, and some even made appointments to attend the theme lectures together.

But many people are caught in a dilemma: they want to attend the dialect lecture, but they don't want to miss Benjamin Graham's memorial speech.

Fortunately, Columbia University was "reasonable" and intentionally staggered the time of speeches and lectures, thus solving the dilemma.

Two days later, on the morning of the following day, a commemorative speech for the 2th anniversary of the publication of Security Analysis was held.

The guests present were basically all bigwigs from Wall Street, and they were all believers in Graham's investment philosophy.

Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett are two of them.

Charlie Munger was sitting in the audience, holding in his hand not "Security Analysis" but "Guns, Viruses, and Steel".

I looked straight at Warren Buffett, who was in high spirits on the stage, and saw that he was using an example of tossing a coin.

"Suppose that 2.25 million people in the United States bet $1 tomorrow morning to guess the heads or tails of a coin, and the loser is eliminated."

"The winner takes $1 from the loser and puts it all in as a bet for the next day."

"Then, after ten days, there will be about 22 people who win in a row, and then they will start bragging about how great their coin-flipping skills are and how genius they are. After another ten days, there will be about 215 winners who guessed correctly 20 times in a row, and each of them won $1 million with $100. These big winners who have just become millionaires will definitely be so happy that they will go crazy."

“Maybe I’ll write a book, ‘How I Made $30 Million in 20 Days with $1 Working Just 100 Seconds a Day.’”

"What's worse, they might fly around the country to attend various seminars on the magical skills of coin tossing, and take the opportunity to laugh at those university professors who are full of doubts. If this kind of thing is impossible, did our 215 big winners fall from the sky?"

"........."

"This is survivor bias! What value investing needs to do is to reduce this bias." "My approach is 85% Graham plus 15% Fisher."

Warren Buffett spoke incessantly, and the applause from the audience was thunderous.

The entire memorial speech ended so smoothly and successfully. Everyone thought that the students would rush forward as usual to block these "successful people", but unexpectedly, many students in the back row immediately stood up and ran away from the scene as if they had greased their feet.

"What are they?"

Warren Buffett frowned.

Charlie Munger laughed and said, “These students must be rushing to another lecture.”

Warren Buffett was curious, "Who?"

"The author of Saving Private Ryan." Charlie Munger held up Guns, Viruses, and Steel in his hand.

Warren Buffett took a look and asked, "How's it going?"

"It's very interesting. I think you should take the time to read it if you have the chance."

Charlie Munger saw more and more students leaving and suggested that they go to listen to lectures on dialect topics.

Warren Buffett pondered for a moment, nodded, and then, led by the school leaders, a group of people came to the venue.

There was a sign at the door with the theme of the lecture written on it:

“How did the world develop?”

"This is a big topic. I don't know how he will talk about it."

Warren Buffett was surprised and suspicious.

"Then let's go in and hear his opinion."

Charlie Munger walked in impatiently, and what caught his eye was a sea of ​​people.

The seats were packed and there were so many people that we had to stand in the corridor. Fortunately, the school had reserved some seats in the front row for the guests.

After Warren Buffett sat down, he looked up and was surprised to see Fangyan's young face.

Then I saw him holding a Coca-Cola, unlike those old pedants who held thermos cups in my impression, which made me even more surprised.

But what shocked me the most was the content of his speech, his knowledge and insights that were beyond his age.

"From a symbolic perspective, guns can be seen as technology, steel represents resources, and germs can be seen as a metaphor for transmission."

"Once you have resources, you must use technology to use them. If you have the first two but don't spread them, any advantage can stagnate or even go the other way. Throughout human history, the advantages and disadvantages of resources in different regions are not static."

"A butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil may cause a tornado in Texas."

"As technology develops and changes, the support that a region's environment provides to that region also changes..."

"What we need to avoid are 'black swan' events, and what we need to guard against are 'gray rhinos' situations."

Listening to the eloquent lecture in dialect, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger felt fresh: "Black swan event?"

Not only them who were well-informed, but everyone present also looked confused.

After all, the concept of "black swan" was not proposed until the 21st century in the book "Black Swan: How to Deal with an Unpredictable Future".

"Before Europeans discovered Australia, they thought all swans were white."

"However, after arriving in Australia, they discovered a swan with black feathers. It was this black swan that completely overturned the Europeans' thousands of years of conclusion. It turns out that swans are not only white, but also black!"

“Black swan events are extremely rare, unpredictable, and have a huge impact on history, economy and other fields.”

Fang Yan said: "In history, the rise of a regime by chance has profoundly changed the geopolitical situation, leading to a great conquest that completely changed the balance of power between different civilizations. Moreover, this kind of rise is completely unreplicable and difficult to repeat. It can be called a black swan conquest event."

Then, he cited the example of "the Ottoman Empire's excessive tolls, forcing Europe to look for a new route directly to the East."

"Wow! Wonderful!"

When Warren Buffett heard this, his eyes were opened and his mind became active: "Charlie, this concept of 'black swan' and 'gray rhino' is so applicable to financial investment."

Charlie Munger agrees, "So I strongly recommend you to read his book. You will not be disappointed."

"Not only do I want to watch it, but after the lecture, I also want to invite this wise man from the East to have lunch with him."

Warren Buffett received Guns, Viruses, and Steel as if he had found a treasure. (End of this chapter)