The rise of a great power: starting with military industry

Chapter 536 The Butterfly Effect of History

After attending the memorial service for the Deng family, we returned to the courtyard.

Liu Tao went to his study.

He picked up a notebook and started flipping through it.

This notebook is very special. It has a lot of text on it, neither traditional Chinese nor simplified Chinese.

I guess only Liu Tao can understand it.

He wrote this down while his memory was still clear in order to avoid forgetting it.

He would flip through it from time to time to make his plans.

For example, the previous "Plaza Accord" was something he remembered after reading this notebook.

"It seems that some things have changed, and history has changed." Liu Tao looked through his notes and looked thoughtful.

According to history, in the Iran-Iraq War, although Iraq had the upper hand at the beginning, it was soon forced to withdraw from Persia, and Persia spread the war to Iraq.

Then the two sides launched a ship-raiding war in the Persian Gulf, forcing Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and other countries to invite the United States, the Soviet Union, Britain, France, China and other countries to escort to the Persian Gulf to ensure the safety of oil transportation.

As for both parties in the ship-raiding war, Persia wanted to use it to strike Iraq and make it lose its income from exporting oil; in addition to retaliating, Iraq also wanted to raise oil prices through this move, thereby increasing its oil revenue.

At that time, in order to target the Soviet Union, the United States joined forces with other major oil-producing countries in the world to increase oil production and suppress oil prices, causing oil prices to drop to between US$10 and US$20. This caused Iraq to lose a large amount of oil revenue. Without a large amount of oil revenue, Iraq would not be able to survive.

But now, international oil prices are still at a high level of over $35 per barrel, and there have been many occasions when oil prices have even exceeded $40 per barrel or even $50 per barrel.

This allowed both Iraq and Iran to make a lot of money from exporting oil, allowing them to continue the war.

After all, the United States consumes an astonishing amount of oil every year. In addition, the strategic reserve oil released before has to be replenished in the next few years. Other major oil-producing countries are also unwilling to sacrifice their own interests and pay for the United States. They have advanced weapons in their hands and are more confident.

In addition to revenge against Libya, one of the important reasons why the United States attacked Libya before was to control Libya and Libya's oil, and at the same time to establish its authority and make the major oil-producing countries obey the United States.

It was a pity that Libya was indeed hit hard, but the United States also suffered heavy losses. Moreover, under the targeting of the Soviet Union, it failed to eliminate Gaddafi and control Libya.

Naturally, oil cannot suppress prices either.

Although Persia is under US sanctions and cannot export oil directly, the United States and Europe used to be Persia's largest oil importers. However, there is no shortage of middlemen in the world, including mercenaries and other organizations, who act as middlemen. With cooperation between the two sides, Persia can continue to export oil, and the middlemen can earn intermediary fees.

Persia can export more than 300 million barrels of oil every day. Even with the presence of middlemen, the revenue from oil exports exceeds US$7500 million a day, and the annual oil revenue exceeds US$270 billion.

In addition, the United States was worried that Persia would turn to the Soviet Union, and did not want to see Iraq become bigger and gain hegemony in the Gulf, so it continued to secretly loosen Persia's control. The sky over the Iran-Iraq battlefield was not only filled with F-14 "Panda" fighters, but also seemed to have suddenly returned to the highest level at the beginning of the Iran-Iraq War. There were also F-15 fighters and F-16 fighters, which once again had air superiority over the Iran-Iraq battlefield. Of course, because Iraq had the "Aegis" air defense missile system, Persian fighters did not continue to attack Baghdad as they did in the early stages of the Iran-Iraq War, and even rarely entered Iraqi airspace.

At present, there has been no ship-raiding war between the two sides, and there is no sign of an end to the Iran-Iraq War.

"And the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in the Soviet Union didn't happen!" Liu Tao sighed to himself, history has changed a lot.

If we talk about the most influential event in the world in 1986, I am afraid that anyone who knows something about it will say the Chernobyl nuclear power plant incident, which is destined to be recorded in world history.

The use of nuclear energy is not only to manufacture nuclear weapons, but also to benefit mankind. Nuclear power plants are an example of how nuclear energy can be used to benefit mankind.

In 1954, the Soviet Union built the world's first nuclear power plant, the Aubrunn Nuclear Power Plant, marking the beginning of human use of nuclear energy. Soon after, the United States built its first nuclear power plant in 1957.

By 1960, the Soviet Union, the United States, Britain and France had built 4 nuclear power plants with a total power of 10 kilowatts.

1954~1965 was the verification and demonstration stage of nuclear power plants. The first generation of nuclear power plants were successively built in powerful countries such as the United States and the Soviet Union. During this period, a total of 38 units were put into operation worldwide.

The period from 1966 to 1980 was a period of rapid development of nuclear power plants. The more economical and safer second-generation nuclear power plants became an important source of energy in the industrialization process of Europe and the United States. In particular, after the economic feasibility of light water reactor nuclear power in the United States was verified, a climax of nuclear power plant construction was formed. During this period, a total of 242 nuclear power units were put into operation worldwide, and West Germany, Japan, Brazil and other countries also joined the ranks of developing nuclear power.

Starting in 1981, it entered a phase of slow growth as the slowdown in developed countries led to a decline in demand.

Of course, there is another influence here, which is the Three Mile Island nuclear accident in the United States in 1979, which increased public resistance to nuclear power plants.

The so-called Three Mile Island nuclear accident in the United States was at 1939 a.m. on March 3, 28. In the operating room of the second reactor of the Three Mile Island Nuclear Power Plant in Pennsylvania, the United States, red lights flashed, sirens sounded, turbines stopped, and the core pressure and temperature rose suddenly. Two hours later, a large amount of radioactive material overflowed. From the initial negligence of the staff who cleaned the equipment to the complete destruction of the reactor, the whole process took only 4 seconds. Six days later, the core temperature began to drop, the steam bubbles disappeared, and the threat of hydrogen explosion was eliminated. Although the 2 tons of uranium fuel did not melt, 2% of the uranium rods were damaged, and the reactor was eventually paralyzed.

After the accident, the whole United States was shocked. Residents near the nuclear power plant were terrified and about 20 people evacuated the area. People in major cities in the United States and residents in areas where nuclear power plants were being built held rallies and demonstrations, demanding that the construction of nuclear power plants be stopped or closed.

Of course, compared with the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant accident in the United States and the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in the Soviet Union, it is a younger brother.

The Three Mile Island nuclear power plant accident in the United States was level five, while the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in the Soviet Union was the highest level, level seven.

The Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in the Soviet Union caused a loss of $200 billion, taking inflation into account. It can be said to be the most "expensive" disaster in modern history.

The Chernobyl nuclear accident is considered the worst nuclear power accident in history, and the city of Pripyat was abandoned as a result.

那辐射危害展现得淋漓尽致，导致事故后前3个月内有31人死亡，之后15年内有6~8万人死亡，13.4万人遭受各种程度的辐射疾病折磨，方圆30公里地区的11.5万多民众被迫疏散。

In the original time and space, many people believed that the Chernobyl nuclear accident was one of the important reasons for the change in the situation between the Soviet Union attacking and the United States defending, and it was also one of the important reasons for the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

(End of this chapter)