super energy power

Chapter 200 On the Price of Oil

In the small internal conference hall of the Economic Reform Commission, there are only more than 20 people sitting in a circle, talking in low voices.Ding Zhipeng also turned his head, exchanging views with others in a low voice.

The Economic Reform Commission, which was born along with the system reform, is the most powerful institution in China at this time. Their research and investigation reports will not only improve the direction of national reform, but also determine the fate of many ministries and commissions.For example, the reform direction of "transforming government functions" has made the Ministry of Petroleum, the Ministry of Nuclear Industry, the Ministry of Electronics, and the Ministry of Coal disappear from the sequence of national ministries and commissions, but the Ministry of Railways and the Ministry of Textile Industry have been retained, and the Ministry of Water Resources and Materials department……

There are more than 20 people present who are proud.All are department-level cadres who have undergone the institutional reform of the State Council in 1988. Ding Zhipeng was also in the ranks back then, and he was promoted directly last year.

Organizing this report meeting is also a new initiative of Ding Zhipeng.While waiting, he quietly introduced the situation of Sioux City and Dahua Industry to his colleagues.It should be said that while helping and influencing Dahua Industry, he was also helped and influenced by Dahua Industry.Therefore, when he saw Dahua Industrial's new 7500-ton offshore drilling platform, he had a new understanding of the future direction.

No one else had a similar experience, so they only talked about recent events in general, as a pastime while waiting.

The hour hand of the clock above the meeting room had just passed ten o'clock when Su Cheng pushed the door open and entered.

Ding Zhipeng immediately stopped the discussion, turned around with a smile, and said, "Boss Su, you are too punctual, come and sit with me, we are having a round table meeting."

Su Cheng saw that everyone moved their chairs and sat in a circle, so he sat down next to Ding Zhipeng politely, and said with a smile: "I came at 9 o'clock. I was not allowed to enter until 9:50 am."

Ding Zhipeng laughed, and said: "This shows that the elites in our small conference room are treasures of the country and are closely guarded."

"I have been famous for the elites of the Economic Reform Commission for a long time." Su Cheng said politely.

"Aren't you in our small conference room now?" Ding Zhipeng laughed.

Su Cheng said shyly, "I'm just here to make a report."

As he spoke, he opened the folder.Reporting in front of the think tank of the Economic Reform Commission is a challenge in itself.It's a bit like reporting to the U.S. Senate and the end result has the potential to have a huge impact, individually and collectively, and it's a rare opportunity.

Ding Zhipeng nodded slightly and said, "Okay, let's listen to the development outline of Dahua Industry."

Su Cheng relieved the tension with orderly movements, smiled, and said with concentration: "Today, what I mainly want to talk about is actually the construction and development of the world's marine equipment..."

He looked around the week and spoke at a leisurely pace: "The transfer of industries around the world is already confirmed. The first transfer is shipbuilding. Japan, South Korea and Singapore have all benefited from this. Although China is one step behind, the world We are at the forefront of the transfer of offshore engineering equipment. If we can seize this opportunity, we will be able to stand at the forefront of the world's industrial transfer, instead of waiting for Japan, South Korea, and Singapore to transfer again 10 years later. The industry gave us..."

Only industrialized and strategic content can attract members of the Economic Reform Commission.Su Cheng only said two paragraphs, and it attracted everyone's attention. At first, some wandering eyes turned around.

Su Cheng was very well prepared. After glancing at the manuscript, he continued: "The marine engineering equipment industry is a hot industry, no matter before, now, or in the future, and it will become more and more hot... what?"

He smiled, his voice slowed down, and said: "Because offshore oil is hot. As I said earlier, the rise in oil prices is a very clear thing. And offshore oil development requires good equipment. This is completely different from the situation on land. On land, the environment in which people live is not particularly passive. There are always some relatively simple equipment that can accomplish relatively complex tasks, but in fact it is getting more and more difficult..."

"However, in the sea, in the deep sea, if you don't have very good equipment, you can't accomplish anything at all." Su Cheng paused for a while, then continued: "People in the sea are like ants in the desert, no amount of preparation is too much. Therefore, they can only continue to invest and keep increasing. For oil companies, as long as the price of offshore oil does not exceed the price of oil, they have enough impulse to engage in high-risk, high-input and high-return industries. What? Because oil prices will continue to increase The rise of..."

"I noticed that Chairman Su seems to be a staunch supporter of rising oil prices? Can you tell me?" The official on the right held a note and listened very carefully.

Due to the small number of people, such reports will be allowed to be interrupted.Seeing everyone's eager expressions, Su Cheng nodded with a smile and said, "It seems that you want to hear the oil price report even more."

"If the price of oil really rises, then the value of offshore engineering equipment is beyond doubt." Ding Zhipeng answered Sioux City's question.

Su Cheng nodded slightly.He still somewhat underestimated the level of these guys. For them, there is no problem with the rise in oil prices and the value of offshore construction. The only thing that makes people unable to analyze is the oil price.

In fact, apart from time travelers like him, in the 90s, there were very few people who firmly believed that oil prices would rise.On the one hand, there are historical reasons. On the other hand, there are too many various analyzes of oil prices. There are so many determining factors, but the weights cannot be distinguished. The market is unpredictable.Many have even spawned conspiracy theory ideas.

In fact, general trends such as oil prices should be the background of the conspiracy, not the direct result of the conspiracy.Just like the story of the Napoleonic Wars and Rothschild, Rothschild can take advantage of the results of the Napoleonic Wars, but if he directly decides the direction of the war, then the pay is too high, which is different from the low cost, high risk, and high cost of conspiracy. The properties of the output are contrary.

After pondering for a moment, Sioux City closed the report and said with a smile: "We are talking about oil prices. In fact, oil is a commodity after all, and its rise and fall are ultimately determined by others. Any other factors can only determine the price of oil in the short term. Determine the long-term. If no influence is exerted, as far as the current development of the oil industry is concerned, it will take about 50 years, or even more than 50 years, before we can run out of land oil. But the Arab countries will not allow us to dig onshore oil."

Everyone laughed.

Sioux Cheng also smiled and said, "Therefore, there are ultimately two things that can determine the price of oil. On the demand side, it is the development level of the world economy. On the other hand, it is OPEC who account for about two-thirds of the world's reserves, 40% The above sales volume. The world economy must be developing upwards, but what should OPEC do? How they set prices is actually a matter of knowledge. First of all, they cannot cut production too much, otherwise the world economy will be damaged, and they will not be able to live well. At the same time, if they If the production is cut too much, everyone will use alternative energy sources. The more the price rises, the more alternative energy sources will be available, which will eventually reduce demand and cause unnecessary price fluctuations. Therefore, in my opinion, the key lies in how OPEC controls this level. Woolen cloth?"

Everyone stared at it with bated breath, and the only sound in the audience was the rustling of pens.It's like the class where the exam gives the answer.

Su Cheng was indeed giving them an answer, a direct answer.He only paused for a few seconds before continuing: "For OPEC, I think one of their policies will perfectly solve the problem of oil pricing. I'm not sure if they have said it now, but I think they will It was meant to be said."

Sioux City didn't prepare information on oil prices in advance, so he simply explained and said: "This pricing method is actually detailed in Marx's works, about land rent."

Once he talked about Marx, everyone became interested.Without him, any action taken by the Economic Reform Commission must be based on Marx's original works.

"Land and oil are very similar in terms of scarcity." Sioux City stopped talking about Marx, turned around, and said, "I think the most important part of OPEC's pricing theory is that they pointed out the price of oil, not the price of oil." It is determined by the energy itself, but by alternative energy sources. Think about it, at the current price of alternative energy sources, is the trend of oil prices increasing or rising?"

"According to your theory, the price of offshore oil is actually a substitute for land oil?" Someone asked quickly.

"That's right." Su Cheng nodded affirmatively, and said: "With this method, OPEC can not only raise the price of oil, but also kill all alternative energy sources. Since the demand for oil is too high, oil will wrap alternative energy sources." , all the way up, until the technology that completely replaces petroleum fuels arrives. Therefore, the trend of rising oil prices will continue, for years, and for 30 years..."

"Won't it fall?"

"Short-term decline, maybe, long-term decline, it's impossible." Su Cheng said again in a flash: "Shallow sea oil, deep sea oil, polar oil... Everyone, this is a kind of competition. In the past, we didn't need to exploit our own oil. , Save it for future generations. In the future, when everyone starts to extract oil in the high seas, in the Arctic and Antarctic, if we don’t participate, we can only watch the rise of new colonies..."

Everyone is in their 40s and [-]s, and once the heated discussion starts, there is no intention of stopping.

Qi Meng was sitting opposite Su Cheng, listening to Su Cheng's words while watching his expressions and movements.As a young cadre who came up from the grassroots, he has quite a lot of experience, so he has a better grasp of human nature, and he tends to consider human factors in his work.

When he saw Sioux City and listened to Sioux City's analysis of oil and offshore engineering, his brain naturally made an analysis—this guy is a fighter with a strong spirit.

Such fighters, no matter what level they are in, will fight on, constantly defeating those around them, and keep rising.No wonder he gave up his lucrative ministry life and chose the oil industry, no wonder he was able to fight in and out of the oil barrels of the world's oil giants.

Qi Meng didn't think that if Su Cheng was not born in an era of drastic changes, but in a stable era, his fighting spirit might lead to unnecessary failures in his life.Peking University is also a very good starting point, but it is a pity that his background is mediocre, otherwise he can play a big role when he enters the Economic Reform Commission.

His brain was also thinking at the same time, and when everyone was satisfied with their speeches, he asked, "Su Cheng, what do you mean, do you want to persuade us to increase investment in offshore oil equipment?"

"It's not enough to just give money, you need people and policies."

Ding Zhipeng smiled, and said: "When we go down to investigate, we usually say that we need policies, people, and money, but we don't have it. You reversed it for us today."

A bunch of people around laughed.

Ding Zhipeng clapped his hands and said, "I heard that the COSCO Group newly formed by COSCO Shipyard seems to have launched a nationwide technological research. Why? Isn't it enough?"

"Cosco Group can be said to have solved the problems of 70% of the people, and we still want a policy."

"What policy?"

"We, Dahua Industrial, want to merge a large state-owned enterprise." Now it is different. Although there are various reforms such as shareholding reform, the central government has always adhered to the principle of focusing on the large and letting go of the small, and many large enterprises simply do not allow private capital to enter.In addition, shareholding reform and complete acquisition are two different things. In fact, it is more like an owner of capital, giving a part of the shares to the operator, which is like an equity incentive.

The small conference room fell into a brief silence.

It was Qi Meng who broke the silence and said, "Which company do you want to merge?"

"Tianjin Petroleum Machinery General Factory. I heard that they have fallen into business difficulties." What Su Cheng said was the Jinshi General Factory where Du Lijun was located.They are one of the few oil equipment companies in China, and many of the equipment they produce can be used at sea.Excessive expansion and great success are Du Lijun's character flaws, especially in state-owned enterprises. Long gone.

The current Jinshi General Factory needs a loan from the bank every year.In the beginning, year-end bonuses were paid with loans at the end of the year, and now it is the off-season wages paid with loans. Anyone who is familiar with state-owned enterprises knows that such factories are on the verge of collapse.

After hearing this, Ding Zhipeng thought about it, and said, "Jinshi General Factory has a very high level, we can't answer, and we will report to the higher authorities."

"I'm not in a hurry, take my time." Su Cheng smiled, and said again: "I merged the Jinshi General Factory to develop the third-generation offshore drilling platform. I can only say that if the Jinshi General Factory is given to me, I will be able to create China's own third-generation and fourth-generation offshore drilling platforms, and when the time comes, we will extract the oil in the South China Sea by ourselves without looking at foreigners!"

"You have to be mentally prepared. Even if the above agrees, the Jinshi General Factory is not cheap, and the shareholding ratio is also difficult to say."

"The country can keep 10% or [-]%, and I will pay double tax. If there is more, I will not want it, and make one for myself." Sioux Cheng said half-jokingly.

"I wrote it down." Although Ding Zhipeng thought it was fresh, he thought it was good.They are engaged in system reform. What kind of factories can be merged and what kind of factories can't be hilted. Local cadres have concerns, but they just use it as an experiment.

……

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