Years of the Republic of China 1913

Fang Zida's question sounds simple, how to end this war, it seems that this question should not come from him and Wu Peifu.But the three people present are all leaders in China's political arena today, especially Song Jiaoren, who is the prime minister. No.1.

After Fang Zida's question, Song Jiaoren and Liao Zhongkai didn't answer right away, but showed contemplative expressions instead.

On the surface, on the one hand, the war between China and Japan is a war launched by Japan to spy on China's territory, and on the other hand, it is also a means for Japan to use foreign wars to alleviate internal conflicts in order to divert the economic crisis.From the Chinese point of view, no matter what Japan's purpose is, Japan will fight without declaring and fighting in Chinese territory. As a Chinese with conscience, it is a matter of course to rise up and resist the invaders.Completely driving the invaders out of Chinese territory is the result that every Chinese would like to see. Since the Opium War, China has suffered countless difficulties for more than half a century. If it can be ended with a victory in a foreign war If so, this is a dream for the young Zheng Fu of the Republic of China.

But international affairs are not as simple as imagined. The current international situation is complex and changeable. It is not only the two sides of the war that are under pressure from China and Japan, but also the two camps of the Entente and Allies that have been exhausted in Europe.As a member of the Allied Powers, the Allied Powers are of course unwilling to fight bloody rivers between China and Japan, thereby wasting their own strength in vain.However, from the perspective of the Allies, it would be better if the internal wars within the Allies were fought more and more. It would be great if the internal part of the Allies could be split, and even one of China and Japan would join the Allies.

With the ulterior motives of the Allies camp and their small actions in private, the calls for mediation in the Sino-Japanese war within the Allied Powers are also getting louder. Whether it is Britain, France or Tsarist Russia, they are constantly running between the two sides, trying to bring the two countries to a truce as soon as possible. .

In addition to the above external factors, judging from the current situation of the two sides in the war, the squadron has taken the initiative in the Jiaodong battlefield, but is still on the defensive in the Northeast battlefield.With the mobilization of troops from the General Staff.Perhaps the pressure on the Northeast battlefield will gradually ease. From this point of view, it is very likely that after a few days, the squadron will gain an overall advantage on the battlefield.

But don't forget that this is only the surface.Compared with Japan.China's overall military strength is not dominant. Japan's cross-sea combat troops only have a few divisions and a navy's second fleet. As an Asian military power, Japan has not exerted its full strength. soldier.Even if the huge navy is brought to the battlefield, such a small advantage that the Chinese government has worked so hard to obtain will disappear.

Compared with Japan, which has gradually become stronger since the Meiji Restoration, the boss China still has a fatal weakness, that is, although the Republic of China has achieved reunification on the surface, the construction of the national army has also achieved preliminary results.However, there are still undercurrents in the country. All parties and factions seem to shake hands and make peace on the surface, but the struggle underneath has never stopped.Central yang control in the northwest and southwest regions is still insufficient, the finances have just begun to improve, and the national infrastructure construction will take a long time, not to mention those revolutionaries who have been acting as "shit stirrers" overseas. However, once the war continues and becomes a long-term war, the fragile government of the Republic of China will inevitably not be able to support it.At that time, the entire country will be severely damaged. Even if the war is completely won, it may take decades to recover.

In addition to the above problems, Yuan Shikai's body is an even more important factor, and Yuan Shikai has never had any faults.According to the doctor's diagnosis, I am not sure whether I can survive this winter. The current situation in Zhong Yang is that Beiyang and KMT check and balance, and there are other parties and factions participating in politics.If Yuan Shikai lets go and goes west, the balance will be broken now, and the Beiyang heritage left by Yuan Shikai will inevitably attract many people to fight for it.On the optimistic side, the best outcome will also lead to a brief period of chaos in the central yang.If this kind of chaos happened in a state of peace, it might not have much impact, but if it happened in a state of war, no one can predict what the result will be.

"What is the financial situation now?"

"If there are no major accidents, it can last for about four months." Fang Zida replied immediately after making calculations before coming.

"Why is it only four months?" Liao Zhongkai was a little surprised, and asked: "Shang Ming, I have seen the financial reports of the past few months. Didn't it say that the central government's finances have improved a lot in the past two years? The indemnities of the Allies after the European War All of them have been cancelled, and Zhong Yang has interrupted the previous indemnity to Japan after the war between China and Japan, if calculated in this way, it should be enough for one year! How can you be so small?"

"My brother Liao!" Fang Zida explained with a wry smile after hearing Liao Zhongkai's bookish words: "Haven't you heard the words of gold ten thousand taels when the cannon is fired? The expenses in peacetime can be compared with those in wartime." Compared? Today hundreds of thousands of troops are fighting on the front line, and the daily consumption alone is astronomical, not to mention the loss of tax revenue, pensions for soldiers, and post-war reconstruction after the war between Shandong and Fengtian... none of these require money What? When I said that it can last for four months, it is an overestimation. If the situation of the battle changes drastically, I am afraid that this time will be shortened."

Seeing that Liao Zhongkai was confused and wanted to ask again, Song Jiaoren waved his hand and interrupted him.

"What do you and Ziyu think? Tell me."

"In Qingdao, I had a detailed discussion with Ziyu for half a day, and I think it is the best policy to end this war as soon as possible. Judging from the current situation, both sides have their own advantages and disadvantages in the two battlefields, but in the short term, there is no doubt that our army has possession Yes. However, this analysis must be based on the fact that Japan no longer increases its troops. If Japan continues to increase its troops, no one can guarantee the result. And based on the analysis of the Jiaodong battlefield, Japan's [-]th and [-]th The divisions were trapped by our army, which made the Japanese Second Fleet throw a mouse-eye and lose the initiative on the battlefield. What if Japan decides to throw away the two divisions in the encirclement? With the strength of the Second Fleet and even the Japanese With the participation of our main navy, can we stop any attack on our country's coastal areas?"

"Well, keep talking." Seeing that Fang Zida looked up at him halfway through speaking, Song Jiaoren nodded to signal him to continue talking.

"Except for the Jiaodong battlefield, the Fengtian battlefield is even less optimistic. I also know the deployment plan of the General Staff Headquarters. Although Zhang Zuolin blocked Ri himself in Buyun Mountain, he suffered a huge loss. Even if reinforcements come up, at most it will be a stalemate. What's more , Japan has not yet sent troops from North Korea, don't forget that North Korea is now a colony of Japan itself, once Japan sends troops from North Korea to Liaodong, Fengtian's stalemate will be broken, and the entire Northeast will be caught in the flames of war."

Speaking a little dry, Fang Zida took a sip of tea and continued: "Except for the analysis from the perspective of the battlefield, the reactions of the Allied Powers and the Allied Powers must also be considered, especially Britain, France, Russia, and even the United States will not allow the war between China and Japan to continue. In addition to the cold weather, Northeast China and Shandong have already entered winter, and the difficulties for both sides of the war are getting bigger and bigger. In this case, mediation is affirmative.”

"Your opinion is to end the war as soon as possible? Do you have any specific ideas?"

"Yes!" Fang Zida nodded and said, "If we have to win or lose, the Jiaodong battlefield can wipe out the No.15 and [-]th divisions of the Japanese army at any time, and the Fengtian battlefield can also fight the Japanese with all their strength. If there is a peace talk, Ziyu suggested to continue to surround the [-]th and [-]th divisions as bargaining chips, and not to seek meritorious deeds on the Fengtian battlefield, to firmly block the Japanese's footsteps so that they cannot pass Buyun Mountain, and to revise the adjustment plan. The military plan is to station at least one group army in the area of ​​the Yalu River to prepare for defense. Delay the current stalemate situation for a few more days, and when Ri himself is unable to break through, the opportunity to accept mediation has come."

Song Jiaoren nodded slightly after hearing this, and it is true that Fang Zida's suggestion is a mature strategy for seeking the country. With the foundation of the Republic of China still weak, now is not the time to fight an all-out war with the Japanese.If the truce can be achieved, it will be a good thing for the country and the central government, but the truce is not so simple. With Japan's always big appetite, even if the truce will inevitably make many demands, Song Jiaoren is worried that once the peace talks If it fails, zheng fu will be criticized by the people and its prestige will drop sharply.

Not only Song Jiaoren, but Liao Zhongkai also have such worries.However, the peace talks on foreign wars for half a century have been called "traitors" by outsiders. Song Jiaoren is the head of the government and the chairman of KMT. Party members, especially Sun Wen and others, will criticize Zhong Yang and KMT in this way?The story of Li Hongzhang is still vivid in my mind, who has the guts to be Li Zhongtang's second?

Song Jiaoren said in his heart that he agreed with Fang Zida's suggestion, but he had his concerns, as did Liao Zhongkai.The two looked at each other silently, unable to make up their minds for a while.

Just as Song Jiaoren was thinking about how to deal with this situation, Fang Zida said, "Brother Dunchu, Brother Zhongkai, this matter is just a suggestion from Ziyu and I, as long as you know it. As for the specific communication, there is no need for Zhong Yang to come forward first. I think it is better for the intelligence department to deal with it first."

"This is not a trivial matter, Zhang Ming, are you sure?" Liao Zhongkai hurriedly asked, with anxiety and worry on his face.Fang Zida said that when the intelligence department came forward, he actually took over the responsibility himself. If Fang Zida took on such an important task, if he failed, he would suffer huge losses. Don’t forget that Yuan Shikai’s time is not long. When the bigwigs competed for Yuan Shikai's political legacy, the other party brought up this matter, which would cause Fang Zida to give up a large part of the rights he should have obtained.