From 0 to 1: unlocking the secrets of business and the future

Chapter 11 Success is not winning the lottery (1)
success is not lottery

The most debated question in the business world is – is success by luck or by skill?
What about successful people?Malcolm Gladwell, a best-selling author of biographies of successful people, in his book "Outliers" [The Simplified Chinese version of "Outliers" was published by CITIC Publishing House in April 2014. ——Editor's Note] said that success stems from "luck and accidental advantages".Warren Buffett considers himself "a member of the lucky sperm club," a winner of the "ovary lottery."Jeff Bezos sees Amazon's success as unbelievable as a "connection of the planets," and jokes that it is "half luck, half timing, and the rest smart."Bill Gates even claimed that he was "too lucky to be born with a certain skill", though it's unclear if that's possible.

Perhaps these people are more or less humble due to communication strategies, but this serial entrepreneurial spirit is a question of the theory of "opportunity creates success".Hundreds of people have started multi-million dollar businesses.A few, like Steve Jobs, Jack Dorsey, and Elon Musk, even founded several multibillion-dollar companies in succession.If success had come from luck, these serial entrepreneurs might not exist.

In January 2013, Twitter and Square founder Jack Dorsey tweeted to his 1 million followers: "Success is no accident."

This statement immediately drew boos. In The Atlantic, reporter Alexis Madgagal said his first reaction was to retort: ​​"Every super-rich white man will say, 'Success is no accident.'" Indeed, those who have already dabbled in New territories are easier, whether because of their network effects, wealth, or depth of experience.But maybe, we are too quick to deny the possibility of step-by-step success according to the plan.

Is there a way to objectively settle this debate?Unfortunately, no.Because companies are not laboratories.For example, if we want to answer whether Facebook will succeed through scientific experiments, we have to go back to 2004, replicate 1000 worlds, and then operate Facebook in each world to see what the result is.But it is impossible to do this experiment.Every company starts in a specific environment, and every company has only one chance to survive.If there is only one sample, the resulting data is not convincing.

From the Renaissance and the Enlightenment to the mid-20th century, luck can be controlled; everyone believes that one should do what one can do, rather than dwell on what one cannot do.Ralph Waldo Emerson captured this social ethos when he wrote: "The shallow believe in luck and circumstance... The strong believe only in cause and effect." In 1912, Roald Amundsen became The first person to explore the Antarctic, he said: "Victory only awaits those who are prepared. Maybe this is what people call luck!" No one will pretend that bad luck does not exist, but the predecessors believe that hard work will bring good luck .

If you believe life is all about luck, then why are you reading this book?If you only want to know the stories of lottery jackpot winners, studying entrepreneurship is of no use to you. "Guide to Using Slot Machines for Dummies" may tell you which mascots can bring you good luck and which machines are "the most magical", but it cannot tell you how to succeed.

Did Bill Gates just win the intellectual lottery?Was Sheryl Sandberg born with a golden spoon in her mouth, or was she "one step forward" [Sandberg wrote the book "Lean Inward", she called on women to be aggressive in their careers and dare to Fight for women's leadership.The simplified Chinese version of the book was published by CITIC Publishing House in June 2013. ——Translator's Note]?When we discuss historical issues like these, luck is in the past.The more important question is about the future: Is the future by chance or by plan?
Can you take control of your future?

You may expect the future to be clearly visible, or you may see the future as nothing more than a fog.If you think your future is certain, it makes sense to know about it ahead of time and work to build it.But if the future in your head is just a fog and you can't predict it, then you will feel tempted to give up control of it.

The attitude of seeing the future as uncertain explains exactly why today's world is so dysfunctional that it prioritizes process over substance: when people lack a concrete plan for implementing it, they routinely try to combine options as much as possible.That's how America is now.In junior high we were encouraged to be active in "extracurricular activities".In high school, students with lofty goals compete more fiercely, and all of them want to give birth to superpowers and become omnipotent.It wasn't until college that we discovered that 10 years of hard work had been nothing more than filling out a confusingly diverse résumé for a future we didn't even know existed.In any case, it can be regarded as ready-prepared without a goal.

And a clear vision can strengthen people's beliefs.Instead of trying to become a mediocre person who knows little about all aspects, and call it an "all-around talent", a person with a clear goal will often choose the one thing that should be done the most, and concentrate on doing it well.Instead of working tirelessly, only to end up making yourself unremarkable, it is better to work hard to develop strength in order to dominate one side.Young people today don't do that because everyone around them has lost faith in the definite world.No one goes to Stanford because he's great at just one thing, unless that thing he's good at happens to be related to passing.

Some people think the future is better than the present, some people think the future is worse than the present.Optimists welcome the future, pessimists fear the future.These possibilities are combined into four perspectives.

pessimism about the future

Every culture has a story of decline from its golden age, and almost all peoples in history have been pessimistic.Even today, pessimism dominates much of the world.A pessimist who is uncertain about the future sees a gloomy future, but there is nothing he can do about it.This describes exactly what Europe was like after 1970, when bureaucracy shrouded Europe.The entire Eurozone is now in a chronic crisis, and no one is responsible for the state of affairs.The European Central Bank is useless for anything but a temporary emergency: the U.S. Treasury has printed "In God We Trust" on the dollar;Europeans just react when things happen and hope things don't get worse.A pessimist who is ambiguous about the future does not know whether the inevitable recession will speed up or slow down, and whether it will be devastating or gentle.They just know to wait for something to happen.While waiting, they can still eat, drink and be merry, hence the famous holiday frenzy in Europe.

explicit pessimism about the future
A definite pessimist about the future believes that the future is knowable but bleak, so he must prepare for it in advance.Perhaps today's China is the most quintessential pessimist about the future.Americans see China's rapid economic growth (2000% a year since 10) and think of China as a country that is confident that it can control its own future.But that's because Americans are still optimistic and view China with the same optimism.From China's perspective, the economy isn't growing fast enough.Other countries are afraid that China is going to rule the whole world, and China is the only country that thinks that it will not rule the world.

The reason China has grown so rapidly is because it started from such a low base.For China, the easiest way to develop is to keep learning from models that have proven effective in the West.China is doing just that right now: burning more coal, building more factories and skyscrapers.Because of the huge population and rising resource prices, there is no way for the Chinese people to catch up with the richest countries in the world in terms of living standards, and the Chinese know this.

That is why China is still determined to choose this risky path.The older generation of Chinese experienced famine as children, so natural disasters are always considered when looking to the future.The Chinese public also knows that "winter" is coming.Outsiders are fascinated by China's vast wealth, but they fail to notice that wealthy Chinese are trying to move their fortunes out of the country, while poorer ones save to stockpile.People from all walks of life in China are preparing for the future.

definite optimist about the future

In the eyes of a definite optimist about the future, with careful planning and hard work, the future can be better than the present.From the seventeenth century until the 17s and 20s, definite optimists for the future led the Western world.Scientists, engineers, doctors, and businessmen have made people in the Western world richer, healthier, and live longer than ever imagined.Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels saw it very clearly.

The productive forces created by the bourgeoisie in the nineteenth century were greater than all previous ages combined.Man conquers nature, mechanization, chemical applications in industry and agriculture, steamships, railways, telegraphs, the overall development of the entire continent, digging canals, etc., as if using magic to summon a large number of people from the ground - what century before people would have thought that social labor would contain Such a huge productivity?

Each generation of creative and visionary people outperforms the previous generation. In 1843, the London public was able to cross the Thames through a newly dug underground tunnel. In 1869, the Suez Canal enabled the Eurasian fleet to reach the Indian Ocean directly without having to go around the Cape of Good Hope. In 1914, the Panama Canal shortened the voyage from the Atlantic to the Pacific.Not even the Great Depression held back the advance of the United States, which is seen as a gathering place for far-sighted optimists.Construction on the Empire State Building began in 1929 and was completed in 1931.Construction of the Golden Gate Bridge began in 1933 and was completed in 1937.Launched in 1941, the Manhattan Project (the code name for the U.S. program to develop nuclear weapons) produced the world's first nuclear bomb by 1945.In times of peace, Americans continued to transform the world: Interstate highways were built in 1956, and 1965 miles of roads were in service by 1961.Americans have explicit plans even beyond Earth: NASA's Apollo program began in 1972 and put 12 men on the moon before it ended in [-].

Bold plans are not reserved for political leaders or government scientists. In the late 20s, a Californian named John Leiber envisioned a transformation of the physical geography of the entire San Francisco Bay Area.Reber was a teacher, an amateur theater producer, and a self-taught engineer.He didn't care about his lack of a diploma, and publicly proposed to build two dams in the Bay Area, two freshwater lakes for drinking water and irrigation, and open up 40 acres of land for development.Despite his lack of power, Reber's plans were taken seriously.His plan has the support of the California Newspaper Editorial Board.The U.S. Congress held a hearing on the implementability of the plan.The Army Corps of Engineers even built a 1.5-acre model of the Bay in a cavernous warehouse in Sausalito to experiment with.It turned out that the technology was flawed, so the plan was dropped.

But if it were today, would anyone take this imagination seriously from the very beginning?In the 20s, people embraced the plan and explored the feasibility of the plan.Today, a schoolteacher's ambitious plans are sure to be dismissed as outlandish ideas, and the long-term vision of someone in the slightest position of power is ridiculed as megalomaniac.You can still see that model of the Bay Area in a warehouse in Sausalito, but it’s no more than a tourist attraction: this grand plan for the future is now dismissed as a past curiosity.

Uncertain optimism about the future

After a period dominated by pessimism in the 20s, lost optimism has dominated American thought since 70.That's when the bull market started to pick up steam, and finance replaced construction as the means of future development.An optimist who is uncertain about the future only knows that the future will get better and better, but does not know how good it is, so he does not make specific plans.He wants to make money in the future, but sees no need for specific planning.

Rather than working for years to develop a new product, the Lost Optimist chooses to improve an existing product.Bankers adjust the capital structure of existing companies to make a profit.Lawyers resolve disputes over old issues or help others with their affairs.Private equity investors and management consultants are not starting new businesses either. They are constantly adjusting their business processes to improve the efficiency of old businesses.Not surprisingly, these fields have attracted a large number of outstanding Ivy League students; such a process-oriented career that can make you an elite and promises you freedom of choice, isn't it good for you in the past 20 years? Want to be rewarded for painstakingly crafting a super strong resume?
In recent years, the parents of graduates always encourage them to follow the established track.Baby Boomers have produced a generation of confused optimists who take for granted the fruits of effortless effort.Whether you were born in 1945, or 1950, or 1955, in the first 18 years of your life, you will feel that the world is really getting better, but it has nothing to do with you at all.Technological progress seemed to accelerate automatically, so baby boomers grew up with expectations for the future without concrete plans to realize them.When technological development stopped in the 20s, most of the baby boomers just happened to be squeezed into the high-income group, making their adult lives better year after year, becoming richer and more successful .While the rest of their generation has been left behind, wealthy hipsters who can now sway public opinion see little reason to question their own naive optimism.The established path suits them, and they cannot imagine that the established path will not suit their descendants.

Malcolm Gladwell said that you can't understand Bill Gates' success if you don't understand Bill Gates' fortunate living environment: he grew up in a well-off family, went to a private school with Computer lab, childhood friend Paul Allen.But if you don't know that Malcolm Gladwell is a baby boomer (born in 1963), you can't understand his statement.These baby boomers grow up thinking that successful people are determined by their personal background, which is largely a matter of chance.But they ignore the larger social context: a generation that, from childhood, overestimates the power of opportunity and underestimates the importance of planning.Gladwell set out to dismantle the myth of the self-made businessman, but in fact his own interpretation is an illustration of the traditional thinking of this generation.

Today's world - uncertain but optimistic about the future

unclear financial
(End of this chapter)