From 0 to 1: unlocking the secrets of business and the future

Chapter 14 The Secret (1)
Ideas that are known today, that are widely known to households, were once unknown.For example, the relationship between the three sides of a triangle has been a mystery for thousands of years, and it was only after hard thinking that Pythagoras discovered the mystery.If you want to learn about the new discoveries of Pythagoras, there is no better way to join the vegetarian school he founded.Today, his discovery in geometry is common knowledge, a simple truth known to schoolchildren.A truth that becomes common sense, while important (such as elementary mathematics), does not give you any advantage because it is no longer a secret.

Remember our contrarian question: On what important issue do you disagree with everyone else?There is no good answer to this question if we understand nature today as we will in the future, if all the truths are understood today, if there are no more secrets to explore.The idea of ​​being different is meaningless unless there are secrets in the world yet to be discovered.

Of course, there are still many things we don't know yet, but some of them cannot be figured out. Those are not secrets, but unsolvable mysteries.For example, string theory uses one-dimensional objects called "strings" to explain the physical phenomena of the universe.Is string theory correct?It is impossible for one to devise experiments to prove it.If possible, only a few people can understand its connotation.But does not understand just because it is difficult to understand?Or because it is a mystery?The difference between the two is crucial.People can do difficult things, but not impossible things.

Recall the business version of the counter-mainstream question: What are some valuable companies that no one has built yet?Every correct answer must be a secret: some things are important but no one knows, and some things are difficult but doable.If there are still many secrets in the world, there may also be many companies that are expected to change the world.This chapter will help you think about secrets and discover them.

why people don't explore secrets
Most people act like there are no more secrets in the world to discover.The extreme representative of this view is Ted Kaczynski, who became notorious as the "University Bomber."Kaczynski was actually a child prodigy, admitted to Harvard University at the age of 16.He has since earned a Ph.D. in mathematics and is a professor at the University of California, Berkeley.But you've heard of him only because he terrorized professors, technologists, and business people with bombs for 17 years.

At the end of 1995, the authorities knew nothing about the identity and whereabouts of the "university bomber".The biggest clue was a 35000-word statement written by Kaczynski and sent anonymously to the newspaper.The FBI asked some important media to release this statement, hoping to find a breakthrough.It worked: Kaczynski's brother recognized his writing style and reported him.

You might think that statement was written in a style that clearly smacks of insanity, but it is surprisingly convincing.Kaczynski pointed out that in order to be happy, everyone "needs to set goals and work hard, and at least a few of these goals must be achieved."He divides people's goals into three groups:

1. A goal that can be achieved with a little effort.

2. A goal that can only be achieved through unremitting efforts.

3. A goal that is impossible to achieve no matter how hard you try.

This is the classic rule of thirds, dividing things into three categories: easy, difficult, and impossible.Kaczynski believes that the reason why modern people are unhappy is that all the problems in the world have been solved, and what remains are either too simple problems or impossible tasks, and striving to pursue these goals does not bring satisfaction.What you can do, a child can do, and what you can't, even Einstein couldn't do.So Kaczynski's point of view is to destroy everything that exists, get rid of all technology, let people start again, and solve problems again.

Crazy as Kaczynski's methods are, we are surrounded by many who share his disbelief in the progress of technology.Consider the small but obvious hallmarks of urban decadence (hippies collectively): retro photography techniques, mustaches and vinyl record players, all of which hark back to a time when optimism about the future remained.If everything worth doing has been done, you might as well pretend to hate success and become a barista.

Not just terrorists and decadents, but all religious extremists feel the same way.Religious extremism, for example, does not allow for a neutral view of difficult problems: either simple truths blurted out by children, or God's mysteries that no one can solve.Between the two lies heresy, a zone of difficulty in proving the truth.In the modern religion of environmentalism, the simple truth is that human beings must protect the environment.But beyond that, only Mother Nature knows best, and she is indisputable.Free marketers follow a similar logic.The market determines the value of commodities.Even a child can look up stock quotes, but there's no questioning whether those prices are reasonable, and the market knows far more than we do.

Why do many people not believe that there are still secrets to be discovered?Perhaps because of the development of geography.There are no blank spaces on the world map anymore.If you grew up in the 18th century, you could still discover new lands, and after hearing stories of foreign adventures, you could become an explorer yourself.This continued from the 19th century into the early 20th century, before photographs in National Geographic magazine showed Westerners what the most exotic and underdeveloped regions on Earth looked like.Today, explorers mostly appear in history books and fairy tales.Parents don't want their children to be explorers any more than they want their children to be pirates or dictators.There may still be a few isolated tribes deep in the Amazon jungle, and we know there is one last untouched place in the depths of the ocean, but the unknown is not as elusive as it used to be It's time.

Four social trends have conspired to dismantle the belief that secrecy still exists, as geographic barriers diminish.The first is incrementalism.We have been taught since childhood that the correct way to do things is to accumulate steps and even thousands of miles.If you exceed the normal progress and learn knowledge beyond the scope of the exam paper, you will not get extra credits for it.Conversely, if you strictly do what is required (and do a little better than your classmates), you will get good grades.This practice carries over to the working phase, which explains why academics often rush to publish papers of little importance rather than explore new ground.The second is risk aversion.People are afraid of secrets because they are afraid of making mistakes.Clearly, Secret hasn't been scrutinized by the mainstream.If your goal is to live your life without making mistakes, you shouldn't be exploring secrets.To devote one's life to what others don't believe in, walking alone on the right path is difficult, but walking alone on the wrong path is even more unbearable.

The third is complacency.The social elite have the greatest freedom and the most ability to explore new ideas, but they seem to believe in secrecy the least.Why explore secrets when you can comfortably enjoy the fruits of what you already have?Every fall, the freshman welcomes at top law and business schools imply the same message: "Get into an elite school, and your life is safe." But it's only true if you don't believe it of.

The fourth is "flattening".As globalization advances, people perceive the world as a homogeneous, fiercely competitive marketplace: the world is "flat".Given this assumption, anyone with ambition should ask themselves a question before exploring the secrets: If it is possible to discover something new, hasn't the smarter, more creative minds in the global talent pool already discovered it?This voice of doubt prevents people from exploring secrets, because the world in which they live seems to be too large for any individual to make a unique contribution.

The consequences of these trends can be described in an optimistic way: the founding of any fanatical sect seems far-fetched today.And 40 years ago, people agreed more with the view that not all knowledge is known.From the Communist Party to the Hindu Krishna sect, most people think they can join the Vanguard Awakening group to get a path to guide them.Few people take unorthodox ideas seriously these days, which the mainstream sees as a sign of progress.We should rejoice in the fact that there are fewer and fewer insane heretic sects now, but we have paid a heavy price for this gain: a loss of curiosity about the secrets waiting to be unearthed.

world of rules

How do you see the world if you don't believe there are secrets?You have to believe that humans have already solved all the big problems.If the current conventional knowledge is correct, then we can say complacently and complacently: "Everyone is in his place, and the world is normal."

For example, a world without any secrets, with a perfect understanding of fairness.Any unfairness necessarily involves a moral truth that few people were aware of until now: In a democracy, a wrongful practice can only be perpetuated if the majority does not see it as unfair.At first, only a few abolitionists thought slavery was evil.This view is now accepted but was a secret at the beginning of the nineteenth century.To think that there are no secrets in the world now means that we live in a society where everything is fair.

(End of this chapter)