Essence Edition Are you suitable for buying stocks?

Chapter 8 The Bull Market Is Coming?Do you buy it or not? (1)
Three steps to tell you whether a stock is worth buying

Friends who are new to the stock market, you may often encounter such a question: Is the selected stock worth buying?

Next, Xiaotou will share with you my own method (of course not chasing ups and downs).It takes a lot of work to judge whether a stock is worth buying or not!My analysis process is mainly divided into three steps of "acquisition, integration and expansion". After these three steps of analysis, I basically know whether a stock is worth buying or not.

Get Obsessively Searched
Generally, the first stock we choose is one that we are very familiar with, or a company in our own field.So, is this company's stock worth buying?First of all, we have to analyze the status of this company in the industry?How has profitability been in the past?Does the company currently have operational and financial risks? ...so, where is this information to be obtained?
First of all, of course, annual and quarterly reports!What, you don't know where to find it?
Input from Shanghai http://www.sse.c m.cn/
Input from Shenzhen http://www.szse.cn/
Then you saw the search bar in the upper right corner, now, please fill in the stock code directly and click the magnifying glass.Then, resolutely write down all the announcements of major issues in the annual report, quarterly report, etc.Great, we now have the raw data we need.

But it is not enough to just look at the information in the annual report or quarterly report, because the annual report and quarterly report are released by the listed company itself, which may deliberately cover up some problems, and these problems require professional ability to analyze.So, what can investors without professional analysis skills do? (Think about it...) Of course, it is to read the reports of people with professional analysis capabilities!
So where are these reports?I recommend a website to everyone: Oriental Fortune Network.

Please open the data center of Oriental Fortune Network, click on the research report, individual stock research report and industry research report, and download them all.At this time, you should pay attention to keep the release time of the research report when downloading, and see what the research reports say about the same stock at different stages.

These research reports are either "overweight" or "buy", and the relatively bad evaluation is "neutral". But, the most important significance of these research reports is not the opinions, but the facts presented in the research reports!One advantage of brokerage research reports is that you can obtain data on company operations that ordinary investors cannot obtain, and these data are often not displayed in annual reports and quarterly reports.For example, “Where to find the operating area of ​​chain companies” is the most troublesome and frequently asked question for the students of Changtou Institute for advanced courses. This data can be found in many research reports of securities companies.

In addition to brokerage research reports, many individuals (commonly known as Big V) will also express their voices through various channels. In addition to individual investor interviews, a large amount of Big V information can be obtained on Xueqiu.com.

We open Xueqiu.com and search for the stock you want to analyze, such as 601318 Ping An of China.

After entering the Ping An page of China, click Discussion, then click Sort by Popularity, and read all the previous pages. If there is any value investment analysis on the company, download it. It is still the same as the above method, and pay attention to the time of publication.

In addition, there is also an influence ranking on the right column, and the top 10 views can also be viewed.

Click on their personal page, and enter the stock name (note that it is not the stock code) in the search for his discussion.

Note: Whether it is a research report or the analysis of a big V, what we need to pay attention to is not their views or conclusions, but the basis and logic of their analysis.Under normal circumstances, there are only opinions, and analysis reports without strong evidence and reasonable arguments are often not credible. This requires everyone to continuously improve their ability to identify.

Integrate for my use

After obtaining this information, it is only the first step of the Long March, and there is still a long, long way to go before everything is settled.At this time, you can try to make a research report of your own according to the method taught by Mr. Xiong in the advanced class.

If you have no idea, why not try to answer these three questions.

Is this a good business?
Is this a good company?
Is this company cheap enough?

These three questions are not for you to do your homework!Instead, let you really answer according to the real situation.

Many long-term investment partners have such misunderstandings. I spent a lot of time to understand this company, but I came to the conclusion that it has no investment value. This makes me so sad!Some friends even subconsciously beautify their own analysis targets, and once the data does not match their own analysis, they will go crazy.

Actually, think about it, you avoided a mine!This is something to be happy about. It is better to be a little unhappy now than to be unhappy when the investment fails in the future.

Is this integration over?of course not.

If you analyze that this company is not good, then you can give up, put it in the sidelines, and leave it alone.

But if you think this is a good company, so good that you want to buy it right away, why not tell someone why you want to buy it?You can find a friend with rich investment experience, try to tell him that this is a good deal, let him question your decision, and answer those tricky questions.In the long-term investment circle, this kind of ideological collision of "someone discovers an investment opportunity, others question and refute to persuade others/deny their own views" occurs all the time.Through this constant collision, you will have a deeper understanding of your research report.

Expand reading and extend horizons
Value investment guru Munger said: "I have met smart people (smart people from all walks of life) in my life who do not read every day, none of them. Warren reads a lot, and I read a lot. You're surprised. My kids laugh at me. They think I'm a book with two legs."

It can be seen that any successful person needs extensive reading.Especially in the field of investment, the more you read, the stronger your ability will be, the safer your investment will be, and the higher your return on investment will be!
Here, Teacher Xiaotou will provide you with some book lists (you guessed it, it is the book list recommended by Teacher Xiaoxiong), as well as some magazines, information websites and APPs, and regularly read economic information every day, so that you It is a very important homework for investors to update their thinking and vision all the time!

How do you feel after watching my process of analyzing a stock?Do you understand a little bit why some people can become constant victors in the stock market?Why are some people so easily trapped on top of a mountain?

If you also want to become a constant victor in the stock market, remember not to chase the ups and downs anymore~ Like me, come to a stock analysis "acquire integration and expansion" in three steps, so that your investment will be safer and your income will be higher!
The stock market is soaring, should value investors buy or sell?
The recent sharp rise in China's stock market is similar to the situation when the stock market rose to 4300 points at the end of last year. A large number of small partners holding cash have been a little lost.Xiaotou has dug up the article at that time, which still has reference value for the current situation. Please review it together.

The current market situation in the stock market can be summed up in three words: up, up, up!Presumably everyone is worried about missing out on this wave of market prices, and they have no intention of learning how to manage money quietly.Therefore, today Xiaotou is also here to talk to you about whether value investors should buy or sell when the stock market is soaring.

Before talking about this issue, let’s first talk about several investment schools in the current market: technical analysis school, value investment school, and modern financial theory school.

The school of technical analysis has a long history. Almost all beginners who are new to the stock market have mixed in this school. This school dominates the world with one chart. There are many branches of this school. It can be traced back to the Japanese candlestick chart technology.The formation of the value investment school was much later. It was marked by the classic "Securities Analysis" written by Buffett's teacher Graham. Some understanding of investment; modern financial theory was born in the 20s. It pays attention to buying a basket of stocks on average through certain specific standards to avoid the occurrence of a single stock black swan event. Joel Greenblatt's "Stability of the Stock Market" "Earn" is the master of this theory.

There are many branches under the technical analysis school, and the theories are complex and often contradictory, such as wave theory, Gann theory, trend theory, moving average theory, and various charts and indicators.Tech investors are all around us.For example, my uncle is a purely technical investor.How does the company behind this stock make money?Can you make money?Is the ability to earn money increasing or decreasing?He didn't know or want to know about these questions.All stocks are just a string of stock codes in his eyes.Open the stock trading software every day, first use the software sorting function to see which stock has the fastest rise, and then look at the 10-day moving average, 30-day moving average, trading volume and other indicators, which stock has a great chance of rising, he He will buy quickly, and then set a stop loss point. If it falls the next day, he will sell decisively after exceeding the stop loss point; if it rises the next day, he will basically run away after making a profit.When the market was good in 2008, he even resigned to speculate in stocks full-time, but over the years, he has not seen him make a fortune, but it is said that he is going to look for a job again.In fact, his stock investment method is the same as frying ginger and garlic before, it depends on which fool is willing to take over at a higher price.The most deceitful thing is that due to the many branches of the technical analysis school, after losing money, my uncle didn't think that there was a problem with the technical analysis itself, but thought that this branch was not good, so he just changed to another branch and continued.So, until now, he still believes that as long as there are good technical indicators, he can beat the market.

Value investing emphasizes in-depth study of fundamentals.My classmate Yaya is a staunch value investor. She thinks that buying stocks is like buying a second-hand car. The seller offers 8 yuan. You have to see if the car is worth 8 yuan.How do you know if it's worth it?Analysis.Like how many kilometers did you run?Has it been overhauled?Have you soaked in water yet?Of course not directly ask the seller, the seller will definitely not tell you the truth.You have to do your own research, and when you know the true condition of the car, you can give the car a reasonable value.For example, if the valuation result is 6 yuan, as long as you buy it at a price lower than 6 yuan, you have no reason to lose money at all.Using this method to buy stocks has a greater advantage than buying cars, that is, suppose you calculate that the value of a stock is 6 yuan, and then buy it at a price lower than 6 yuan, such as 5.5 yuan, suddenly the market is all If the stocks all turn around and fall, for example, until they fall to 4 yuan, then you should be happy, because you can buy this stock worth 6 yuan at a lower price.After buying, you just need to hold it patiently, and you can make money when the price of this stock returns to its value.Yaya said that her investment method is to attack while defending, which is equivalent to buying insurance. She does not need to be afraid of the ups and downs of the market, and does not need to keep an eye on the market every day, so she can work with peace of mind.

Modern financial theory emphasizes the portfolio theory of "putting all eggs in one basket".The basic starting point of an investment portfolio is to buy enough stocks so that some stocks rise and some stocks fall. As long as the rise is greater than the fall, you can make money.This is like buying several clothes at the same time. There are always hot sellers and slow sellers. As long as the best sellers make more money than the slow sellers, then you will make money.There are two disadvantages of this method: one is that the amount of funds must be large enough, and the other is that the increase is not necessarily greater than the decrease.

Why do I want to introduce these different investment styles to you?That's because many zero-based investors don't know how to buy and sell stocks at all, thinking that everyone's reasons for buying and selling stocks are the same, but in fact, investors with different investment styles have different trading strategies.

So, is there really any investment school that can give a specific buying and selling strategy without studying a specific investment situation?As a former investment rookie, I believe there are!I used to unconditionally believe in the seemingly reasonable stock recommendations of various websites, the "investment experts" of various TV programs unconditionally, and the "friends" who unconditionally believe in the securities industry... The result is that I will cry if I talk too much!In fact, the reason is very simple. Investment strategies are often related to the individual conditions of investors.For example, young investors often choose to bear certain risks to obtain higher returns, while the primary investment goal of elderly investors is to preserve their principal.These different situations determine that the investment strategies they want to adopt are often diametrically opposed.

If you haven’t suffered a loss in the stock market and you happen to be learning the method of value investment, then congratulations, as long as you uphold the concept of value investment in your future investment, then at least you can guarantee that you will not lose money in the stock market in the long run. loss.With the continuous improvement of your investment ability and investment experience, you will definitely be able to make money in the stock market with the method of value investment, but how much you earn and how little you earn varies from person to person.

Back to the topic, at the current point, does Xiaotou have any trading suggestions for you?The answer is that Xiaotou does not provide specific trading strategies, but some principles can still be provided for your reference.

First of all, everyone must be clear that the current stock market is a capital market, not a rise in the stock market caused by the improvement of the real economy.After more than half a year of stock market rise, many stocks have actually lost the opportunity to invest in value. If you already have stocks in your hands, it is recommended to gradually reduce your positions on rallies; if you do not currently have stocks in your hands, you are worried about missing the market If so, you must control your positions reasonably, and try to find stocks with undervalued valuations for investment. At present, basically only bank stocks are near valuations.In fact, as long as a rational person thinks about it for a while, even the aunt who sells vegetables on the street thinks that when the stock market is going to go up to 6000 points, do you still think that this is investment, not gambling?Even if the stock market can reach 6000 points, who will hold stocks and who will hold cash at 6000 points?What about after 6000 points?If everyone believes that it will fall after 6000 points, and they all sell stocks before 6000 points, do you think anyone will take over the stocks in your hand?Is it still possible to reach 6000 points?

From a short-term perspective, the stock market is a zero-sum game. If you make a profit, it means someone loses. Think about why you can beat your trading opponent every time?Do you worry day and night that the stocks recommended by others will plummet after getting up tomorrow?If you try to make a fortune in the stock market without knowing anything, then even if you made a 10000% profit before, you only need one -100% loss, and you will never be able to turn around again.

Although Xiaotou is still on the way of learning value investing (there is no end to learning), but it is not so easy for others to incite me to buy or sell?I just ask the demagogues "What is the company behind the stock you recommend? What is the company's profit over the years? What is the growth over the years? What is the company's return on investment over the years?..." If they can't answer , then as long as I read the company's annual report for a while, although I can't immediately judge whether it is worth investing in, I can generally understand whether it is a good company.So, it was not easy to trick me into buying or selling stocks, to help them raise or lower the stock price, and most importantly, it was not easy for me to lose money.

Investing novices are the most likely to worry about missing the market, and they are also the most likely to be exploited by others, and they always blindly believe that they will be able to escape the top.I don’t know where this self-confidence comes from, but I hope that those who study financial management with Long Tou can avoid following the trend, and make investment decisions independently through learning.

(End of this chapter)