Perfection of Rebirth

Chapter 457 Oil Futures
According to Jiang Hui's vision, the income of Guanghui Investment's funds entering the financial market will at least double in 2006.As for the Tianchao stock market, Jiang Hui felt that it would not be a big problem to double, and even quadrupling was not impossible.

From this point of view, in fact, investing all your money in the Chinese stock market is the most stable and the most profitable.However, the China stock market in 2006 was limited in scale, and there were too many funds invested in it, which could not be used at all.You must know that Jiang Hui has already obtained 30 billion yuan from the transfer of shares of Xiaonei and Meituan, plus a part of the funds of Guanghui Games. This is already a force that cannot be underestimated in the Chinese stock market.

Jiang Hui just wanted to ride the stock market soaring and earn a little money, but he didn't want to be accused of manipulating stock prices, so other funds could no longer stay in the domestic stock market.

Of course, in 2006, when the renminbi was constantly appreciating, Jiang Hui held a pile of US dollars. If he did not have a good investment channel, it would actually be a loss.

And will Jiang Hui lack good investment channels?
Not to mention that Brilliant Investment is already deploying in the automotive industry, and is ready to acquire a batch of parts companies at any time, which requires a lot of funds.

However, these are not the best investment methods at the moment. In Jiang Hui's eyes, the best investment in the international market in 2006 is oil futures.

The oil crisis that occurred in the early 20s had a huge impact on the world oil market, and the sharp fluctuations in oil prices directly led to the creation of oil futures.Since the birth of oil futures, its trading volume has been showing a rapid growth trend, surpassing that of metal futures, and it is an important part of the international futures market.

There are four important crude oil futures contracts in the world, namely the New York commodity futures contract, the Singapore acid crude oil futures contract, the Tokyo Industrial Products and the British Brent crude oil futures contract.

In fact, the original purpose of futures is hedging.Enterprises realize risk procurement through hedging, which can keep production and operation costs or expected profits relatively stable, thereby enhancing the ability of enterprises to resist market price risks.

The basic method of hedging is that the company buys or sells oil commodity futures contracts with the same trading volume as the spot market, but the trading direction is opposite, in order to offset the price changes in the spot market by means of hedging or liquidation compensation at a certain point in the future actual price risk.

Of course, due to the objective existence of the difference between the spot price and the futures price, hedging cannot completely eliminate the risk, but replace a larger risk with a smaller risk, and replace the spot price with the risk of the difference between the spot price and the futures price. Price Change Risk.

However, capital has a natural speculative demand.Using the futures market, traders can avoid the negative impact of international oil price fluctuations on the one hand; on the other hand, they can also obtain more benefits from market price fluctuations through speculative transactions.

Jiang Hui belongs to this type of transaction party.

"Mr. Jiang, the risk of the oil futures market is much higher than that of stocks. Is Guanghui Investment really going to enter this field from the beginning?" Guan Weidong said a little worried.

One of the biggest differences between futures and stocks is the two-way trading mechanism of the futures market. Only when buyers and sellers trade on an equal footing can a deal be concluded.If you don't consider the handling fee, your profit is the loss of others, and your loss is the profit of others, so the futures market is a "zero-sum game" market.The stock market is not a "zero-sum game" market, because when the stock rises, although the buyer is profitable, the seller will not lose money because the stock rises; The seller loses money, but the seller does not profit from the stock's decline.

Only the buyer of stocks bears the risk, while futures only needs to be traded, regardless of whether they are long or short, they must bear the risks brought about by price fluctuations. This is determined by the use of margin trading in futures.Investors only need to pay a margin of 5%-10% of the contract value in futures trading to trade, which is equivalent to magnifying the leverage ratio by 20-10 times. The high risk of the futures market is reflected in the leverage effect.This is also the reason for the high risk of futures.

Leverage is the key to leverage wealth, the higher the risk, the higher the return.

In 06, the price of crude oil fluctuated greatly, rising from 60 US dollars a barrel at the beginning of the year to a sky-high price of 80 US dollars a barrel. Before the financial crisis came, it once exceeded 150 US dollars a barrel.Jiang Hui, who has mastered the oil trend, entered the oil futures market. Although he cannot 100% guarantee to make money, the possibility of making money is much higher than losing money, so Jiang Hui thinks it is worth fighting for.If it succeeds, the funds for the acquisition of Jaguar Land Rover will come out.

"In the past few years, the price of crude oil has gone up, and the development of the entire international economy is booming. In particular, China's demand for oil is rising rapidly every year. I think oil will rise sharply in 2006." , Jiang Hui said to Guan Weidong.

"But now the price of oil is 60 US dollars a barrel, which has doubled compared to a few years ago. As a bulk consumer product, this increase is already very alarming. Many experts judge that the price of oil will be weak in the future." Guan Weidong Continue to persuade Jiang Hui not to enter the oil futures market easily.

In the Celestial Dynasty, the words of the "Brick House" are the most untrustworthy. In many cases, it is correct to interpret the words of the "Brick House" in reverse.

……

A well-known treasure appraisal expert was appraising an earthenware pot from the Kangxi period, and said: Look, this exquisite texture, beautiful carving craftsmanship, and a faint fragrance of the deceased, there are still traces of the maker on it. The name must have been engraved by a Kangxi craftsman, with such ethereal, illusory and vigorous strokes.

Suddenly a blind man with little education said in a hurry: Who saw my urine pot?An clay pot, I even wrote my own name!

……

OPEC once gave a factor to be considered in the rise of crude oil prices: first, there will be about 1% new proven reserves every year; second, with the acceleration of economic development, the level of crude oil consumption will increase by 20% in the next 1.9 years; The difficulty and cost of oil production are getting higher and higher, which supports the rise of oil prices; therefore, in Jiang Hui's view, in the long run, the price rise of oil, a non-renewable energy source, is inevitable.

Of course, due to factors such as the rapid development of shale oil technology in the United States in later generations, there will be a wave of decline in oil prices. This situation is now unpredictable.

"Old Guan, I know what you are worried about. In fact, if you think about it from another angle, you won't be so worried. Although this dollar is quite a lot, in fact, even if we really lose it, it will not treat us. The impact of the group's operations is at most that we need to raise funds for subsequent development."

Strictly speaking, this fund is now under Jiang Hui's personal name. Whether it increases or decreases, it will not affect the company's development.

In practice, of course, it certainly won't be completely unaffected.

It can only be said that this risk is nothing compared to the possible high returns.

(End of this chapter)