The world's funniest economics stories

Chapter 16 Game Theory Tricks (3)
In a real game, participants often use what they know about the opponent's strengths and weaknesses to overcome the opponent's weaknesses.Its basic strategy is to make random moves first, maintain a tie, and at the same time try to find the law from the opponent's actions, and use it when it catches this law.However, if both sides of the game adopt this conservative strategy, the game will always remain in a balanced state. In a real battle of wits, one party must attack first, thereby luring the opponent out of its fortress.A person who is good at using strategies to act, in addition to the necessary self-knowledge, must also have the ability to lure the opponent into the game by surprise and cover his unpreparedness.If in real life, we can rationally use the strategy just right, then many problems that give us headaches will be solved.

During the reign of Zhengde in the Ming Dynasty, a scholar named Zheng Tang opened a calligraphy and painting shop in Fuzhou Fucheng, and the business was very prosperous.One day, a person who claimed to be Gong Zhiyuan came to pawn with a handed down work "Han Xizai Night Banquet Picture".Zheng Tang paid him 8000 taels immediately, and Gong Zhiyuan promised to return 15000 taels to Zheng Tang when the calligraphy and painting expired.Time passed day by day, and in a blink of an eye it was the deadline for taking the pawn, but there was no sign of Gong Zhiyuan.Feeling bad, Zheng Tang wanted to take out the calligraphy and painting and take a closer look.I don’t know if I don’t look at it, but I’m startled when I see it.It turned out that what Zheng Tang received was a fake.For a while, the news that Zheng Tang was cheated out of 8000 taels of silver by accepting counterfeit goods caused a sensation in the city.

After the anger was extinguished, Zheng Tang came up with a countermeasure.Two days later, the deceived Zheng Tang held a grand banquet at home, and invited all the celebrities and calligraphers and painters from all over the city to attend the meeting.Halfway through the banquet, Zheng Tang brought the fake copy from the inner room, hung it in the center of the lobby, and said to the guests: "I invite everyone to come today. The second is to let colleagues in the industry see the fake paintings and take them as a warning.” After the guests had seen the fake paintings one by one, Zheng Tang threw the fake paintings into the stove.Seeing the calligraphy and painting turned into ashes, and the 8000 taels of silver were burned like this, Zheng Tang's actions spread throughout the city.

The matter did not end here.Early the next morning, Gong Zhiyuan, who had disappeared for many days, suddenly appeared in Zheng Tang's calligraphy and painting shop.He reasoned that something had delayed the time to pick up the painting.Upon hearing this, Zheng Tang said while calculating, "It's okay, it's only a three-day delay, but you need to add three points of interest, so the total is 15240 taels of silver."

Gong Zhiyuan knew that his painting had been burned by Zheng Tang, so he confidently demanded that the painting be exchanged for silver.After checking the money, Zheng Tang took out a painting from the inner hall and handed it to Gong Zhiyuan.Complacent, Gong Zhiyuan opened the painting, his hands and feet felt cold, and he collapsed to the ground.

It turned out that after his anger subsided that day, Zheng Tang thought of a way. He made another painting imitating the fake one, and what he burned was the fake painting he forged.

Zheng Tang's strategic and deceptive application is just right, the reason is that he has grasped the cheating mentality of the liar Gong Zhiyuan, used his tricks, and in turn invited the liar into the urn.Zheng Tang increased his action steps and paid a temporary price to induce the enemy to go deep. When the enemy was led by him, he naturally became the winner.

In real life, the complex information we receive is often mixed with true and false, and even a rational person cannot distinguish it for a while.During the game, the information sent by the game participants is often not true.For example, in the market, sellers will not hesitate to claim that low-quality products are high-quality in order to make a profit.In order to confuse buyers, they use various means to display excellent information that proves their products.In this process, the buyer must learn to discriminate the information, and must not be deceived by the false appearance in front of him.

The enlightenment of the strategic deception theory in game theory is that no matter how complicated the situation is, we should use the information we have collected to make use of it, and use all the strategic wisdom to obtain the truth of the whole thing as much as possible, so that Allow yourself to live in the "real world".

In addition, we need to be clear that strategic deception does not mean cheating, nor does it allow us to "cheat" in our lives, but requires us to use game theory to seek the maximum benefit for ourselves in market behavior and interpersonal communication.

Methods of screening information:
[1] Identify according to the source of information.First-hand information is relatively reliable, if it is hearsay, the degree of reliability will be reduced.

[2] Do not blindly trust the information you have received.Judge according to your own rationality and original experience, and don't draw conclusions easily from the information you get.

[3] Obtain information through multiple channels.Expand the way to obtain information, and a wide range of information will help you make rational decisions.

[4] Check with authorities.For example, if you can't identify the high imitation banknotes on the market, you should check with the bank or other departments.

7. Why do trespassers stop trespassing--threat and credibility
The story of Kuang Zhong who was an official in the Ming Dynasty has been circulated among the people as a good story.

At that time, under the recommendation of Yang Shiqi, Yang Pu, and Yang Rong, Kuang Zhong was promoted to Lang Guan by the emperor from a young official, and became the prefect of Suzhou.When the court summoned him in person, the emperor handed him the document he had signed himself.The document shows that Kuang Zhong has the right to handle the case by himself without waiting for the report.

After arriving in Suzhou, a person in charge submitted the public case to Kuang Zhong for review, but unexpectedly, Kuang Zhong not only ignored the public case, but also put on a very indifferent appearance, and handed over all the documents that needed to be processed to the subordinate officials to deal with.When the subordinates handed over the finished copy to him with anxiety, he didn't even read it, and just approved it with "OK".After this continued for a period of time, the officials began to think that he was incompetent and despise him.After another period of time, the ills and loopholes in the yamen were exposed invisibly at a glance.There is a general judge surnamed Zhao in Suzhou who has always been known for his arrogance.The strange thing is that, as a newcomer, I urgently need to establish a majestic bell for myself. During these days, whenever I was bullied by Zhao Tongpan, I just "hmm! Hmmm".

Kuang Zhong's behavior style finally changed a month later.On this day, Kuang Zhong ordered his men to prepare joss sticks, invited the emcee of ceremonies, and called all the officials together. Kuang Zhong had something to announce.He solemnly opened the document in his hand and said to everyone: "For a month, I haven't had time to announce this edict personally issued by the emperor. Today I will announce this edict." When the officials heard the edict When there was a sentence in "If the subordinate officials do illegal things, Kuang Zhong has the right to directly arrest and interrogate himself", all the officials present were shocked.

After the edict was read out, Kuang Zhong immediately ascended to the hall, summoned Zhao, and sentenced him severely according to all his crimes.From then on, those outlaws among his subordinates never dared to mess around again.

From Zhong Kuang being bullied at the beginning, to the process of establishing his dignity with the help of the incident of eradicating criminals a month later, we can see that appropriate deterrence is very important in many cases.

Threat, in game theory, refers to a response rule that punishes those who do not cooperate.And this kind of threat is both coercive and intimidating, with different degrees.Generally speaking, threats are made before the choice of strategy, so when threatened by the other party, the issue of its credibility must be considered first.

In actual decision-making, if we want to achieve the effect of influencing the opponent's actions through threats, we must ensure that our threats do not exceed the necessary range.The so-called "too much is not enough", in the game, a threat of the right size can be large enough to work, but small enough to be convincing.If the threat control is not appropriate, making it hard for the opponent to believe, and you can't do what you say, then you will not be able to achieve the effect of the threat in the end.

When initiating a threat strategy, the threat participants should first consider whether the threat is sufficiently effective in deterring or coercing the opponent.At the same time, when a threat strategy is selected, the threat must be properly controlled with the assistance of extraordinary wisdom when it is issued.Otherwise, inappropriate threats will have adverse consequences for the overall game.

Using threat tactics skillfully can help us solve many practical problems in our daily life.Let's step into the garden of soprano Ma Dimaple and see how she uses threat tactics to get herself out of trouble.

Ma Dimaple has a private garden of her own.In this painstakingly managed garden, Ma Dimaple has always lived very comfortably.Until one day, led by a group of children, a group of people began to enter her garden one after another to pick flowers, wild mushrooms, fresh fruits, and even have a picnic.Unbearable, she ordered the staff to install fences around the garden time and time again, and marked the words "private garden, no entry" in an obvious place.But doing so is completely futile, and the number of people active in the garden has not decreased.One morning, Ma Dimaple suddenly came up with a good idea.

"If someone is bitten by a poisonous snake in the garden, the nearest hospital is 15 kilometers away from here." Wrote this sentence in hand, Ma Dimaple handed the note to the staff with a smile, and ordered them to write the note on the note. The words written on eye-catching wooden signs are placed in all possible places to enter the park.Since then, no one has ever trespassed on her forest.

A legitimate threat helps singer Ma DiMaple deal with the annoyance of outsiders invading her private garden.But sometimes, in the face of possible threats, if the other party does not stop at the surface, but conducts in-depth analysis and careful observation, the threat becomes unreliable.

In a game, if we can recognize the importance of threats, make our threats credible, and quickly judge the credibility of threats from a rational perspective, the result of the entire game will be very important to us. favorable.

In a static game, the players act simultaneously, or although the actions of the players are taken in order, the person who acts later does not know what action the person who acted first took.

In a dynamic game, the actions of the participants are sequenced, and the person who takes the action later can know the action taken by the person who took the action first.

8. Why does the tortoise cooperate with the rabbit--Positive sum game
Jiafushi and Gongshishi are two very famous figures in the Spring and Autumn and Warring States Periods recorded in history books.Father Jia Shi is good at strategizing, but he is not as decisive as Master Gongshi in dealing with things. Although Master Gongshi is very decisive in dealing with things, he lacks scheming and often makes mistakes due to negligence.Therefore, the two people who live together learn from each other's strengths, conspire to work together, and no matter what they do, they always get what they want.

But one day, the two had conflicts because of some small things in life. After a big fight, they broke up and lived their own lives from then on.In the process of living alone, they all encountered a lot of troubles, and their lives were very unsatisfactory.The authorities are confused, but the bystanders are clear. Everyone is very sad about this.Finally, a man named Mixu Fen couldn't bear it any longer. He cried and persuaded them, saying: "The jellyfish in the sea have no eyes, they can only be guided by the shrimps, and the shrimps share the food of the jellyfishes. They depend on each other. One must not; in the far north there is a kind of shoulder-to-shoulder people who grow side by side. They take turns to eat, drink, and look at things alternately. If one of them dies due to a problem, neither of them can live. Similarly, the two cannot be separated. Like a shrimp and a jellyfish and two human beings, your two lives are connected. When you are apart, you are in a very bad situation, so why don't you reconcile when you have suffered so much?"

Knowing the need for each other, Jiafushi and Gongshishi, who felt very ashamed, reconciled again and lived and worked together again.

In the best-selling book "Wolf Totem" for 6 consecutive years, we learned that among wolves, the alpha wolf will send two little wolves to "spot" the enemy every time.Every time, with the tacit cooperation of the two wolves, the whole pack of wolves always reaps a lot.In Qing Pu Songling's prose "Wolf", the cleverness of the two wolves and their close cooperation when they act together are even more vividly described.

Let's go back and look at the previous story.Jia Fu Shi and Gong Shi Shi each have their own advantages and specialties. They live together, and many problems will be solved with the joint efforts of the two.This shows that each of us exists as an individual, and our abilities are limited.In this increasingly competitive society, only by persisting in cooperation can we achieve ultimate success.This leads to the positive sum game theory in economics.

Positive-sum game is also called cooperative game, which means that the interests of both parties in the game increase, or at least one party's interests increase while the other party's interests are not damaged, so the interests of the whole society increase.

The research of cooperative game is how to distribute the benefits of cooperation when people reach cooperation, that is, the problem of profit distribution.The reason for this effect is that it adopts a cooperative or compromise method.The reason why compromise can enhance the interests of both sides of the compromise and the interests of the whole society is that cooperative games can produce a cooperative surplus.This surplus comes from this and is limited to this.As for how to distribute this surplus, it can only be determined by the comparison and application of the strength and skills of the two players in the game.Therefore, a compromise must be negotiated by all parties involved in the game to reach a consensus and cooperate.Here, the distribution of cooperative surplus is both the result and the condition of a compromise.

We can gain a deep understanding of positive-sum games from the story of "The New Tortoise and the Hare".

The tortoise and the hare race. After the first race, the hare, who lost the championship because of carelessness, was very unbalanced and decided to have a rematch with the tortoise.In the second tortoise and the hare race, the hare won and the tortoise lost. The tortoise felt that the hare had only a little advantage and could not swim.This time it was the route drawn up by the tortoise, which passed a river, and the rabbit could not cross it, so the tortoise slowly crawled over and won.So the tortoise and the rabbit began to discuss the fourth competition.At this time, the tortoise said: "Why do we two keep competing? Let's cooperate!" Finally, they reached a consensus. On the land, the rabbit carried the tortoise to run, and when crossing the river, the tortoise swam with the rabbit on its back.The two triumphed together.

A win-win situation is the best cooperation effect.The truth reflected in this story is exactly what is needed for the development of today's society.Cooperation is the weapon to maximize the benefits.

"There is no permanent enemy, only permanent interests." No matter what kind of competition, everyone must distinguish the type of game they are participating in, and choose the most suitable strategy accordingly.Only when there are opponents and competition can there be development and the maximization of etiquette.If the actions of the other party are not good for you, you should reduce the risk and cooperate with others under the premise of ensuring your basic interests.

Negative-sum game refers to the result of conflicts and struggles between the two parties. The gain is less than the loss, which is what we usually say that the sum of the results is negative. It is also a game that hurts both sides.

(End of this chapter)