2050 superpower

Chapter 34 Who Will Rule the World (1)
§§§ How strong is the economy of the four countries in the first section

Since the Goldman Sachs research report put forward the concept of "BRIC", it has been aroused by the world.So how strong are the "BRIC countries"?These four countries have unique advantages in terms of area, population, resources and market.On the whole, the land area of ​​the four countries accounts for 26% of the world's total area, and the population accounts for 42% of the world's total population.In terms of economic development, from 2006 to 2008, the average annual economic growth rate of the "BRIC countries" was 10%.

For these four countries, which have more than 40% of the world's population and a GDP of 14 trillion US dollars, no matter how they are measured, they will become the largest economic bloc in the world.But the four countries are just four countries, not an alliance of four countries, so the overall strength does not represent individual strength, so we can only analyze them separately.

China and India are located in Asia, and what they have in common is that they provide labor exports to the world. For example, China is the world's largest base for manufactured products, while India provides computer software and medical products to the world.Brazil and Russia are resource-exporting countries. For example, Brazil is an exporter of agricultural and animal husbandry products and metal minerals, while Russia is an exporter of oil and natural gas.From this perspective, the "BRIC countries" can form a market system with a relatively complete division of labor.Therefore, some people joked that the "BRIC countries" will be able to form a powerful economic bloc to replace the current status of the G[-].

According to Goldman Sachs estimates, the share of the "BRIC countries" in world economic growth will increase from 2003% in 20 to 2025% in 40, accounting for almost half of the country.They also said that by 2025, the proportion of the total economic volume of the "BRIC countries" in the world economy will increase from 2004% in 10 to 20%.Goldman Sachs described this vision blueprint, so that the "BRIC" excited.

Are the "BRICs" really that strong?We must carefully analyze this issue while we are excited.

Let's talk about China first.China is known as the world's workshop and is the country with the most dynamic economic development in the world. Due to abundant human resources and low labor costs, the world's largest enterprise groups have moved to China to establish production bases.Due to the gathering of talents, China has prospered its economy with an unparalleled price advantage. At the same time, driven by foreign-funded enterprises, the quality of employees is also constantly improving.Since China's reform and opening up, in the past 30 years, the average annual economic growth rate has exceeded 9%.Goldman Sachs estimates based on China's development speed, and believes that China's economic scale will surpass that of Japan in 201 and that of the United States in 0.

Brazil has advantages and strengths that are completely different from those of China.Brazil's total GDP in 2008 was 1 trillion US dollars, ranking first in Latin America, with a per capita GDP of 23 US dollars, much higher than that of China and only slightly inferior to Russia.Agriculture, animal husbandry, and mineral resources are traditional pillar industries in Brazil. In addition, production and service industries have also begun to develop, and emerging industries such as finance are also on the rise.

India is the "world office". The development of its software industry makes it difficult for countries in the world to match, and the pharmaceutical industry occupies an important position in the global market.There are more than 6000 listed companies in India. Although its stock market is still closed to the country, its scale cannot be underestimated.Since the 20s, India's economy has grown steadily at an average annual rate of 90% in 20 years.Compared with China, India has the color of science and technology economy and has a certain talent strength.Not to mention the world, but only the United States. Among the 5 largest companies in the United States, 6/1000 of them use software made in India.The Indian pharmaceutical industry produces 4 percent of the world's "generic drugs," pharmaceutical preparations whose patents have expired.In addition, India has also made great progress in other aspects of construction, such as the 40-kilometer expressway network and active export trade, all of which have provided a strong follow-up force for its economic development.Goldman Sachs said in its report that by 6000, India will become one of the fastest growing countries in the world, and its foreign trade will rank 2020th in the global foreign trade rankings.

Russia is the "gas station of the world".After undergoing painful "shock therapy", Russia made a hard landing of the economy in the process of reform.In the financial crisis in 1998, Russia's economy not only was not affected, but took off.The soaring price of oil and natural gas has made the Russian economy leap from the ground.The two major industries of oil and natural gas alone have created 50% of Russia's export trade output value and. 40% of state income.Russia is also the largest resource country of rare metals such as palladium, platinum and titanium.Although Russia has a vast territory and rich resources, its long-term goal is not just to be a "global gas station", but also to be committed to the process of modernization and reform, to improve the technological content of other industries, so that its economy has more pillar industries to maintain economic development.

Now Russia has gotten rid of the economic predicament and realized the average annual growth rate of GDP of 7%. The U.S. dollar has re-entered the ranks of the world's top ten economies.

In mid-June 2009, the "BRIC" summit was held in Yekaterinburg, Russia, to jointly discuss issues such as how to get rid of dependence on a single currency.At this summit, the "BRICs" all expressed their support for the creation of a "super-sovereign" currency.After the summit, the heads of the four countries issued a statement that the second summit of the "BRIC" summit will be held in Brazil next year.Since then, the Central Bank of China has proposed to establish a "super-sovereign international currency", which has received support and response from the World Monetary Organization and the United Nations.Russia also submitted a proposal at the G6 summit, hoping that the World Monetary Organization would consider establishing a super-sovereign reserve currency.

The reason why the U.S. dollar can obtain the status of an international settlement currency as a sovereign currency is because the United States has become the world's largest creditor country after World War II.Today, the United States is the largest debtor country. This earth-shaking change has shaken the status of the dollar in the world.The emergence of the euro is a challenge to the status of the dollar.Now China, as the world's second largest economy, while advocating a "super-sovereign" currency, has also given the RMB a status in international trade, especially in Southeast Asia, for trade measurement and settlement between countries, and China Signed currency swap agreements with 5 countries including Argentina, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Belarus and Hong Kong, with a total agreement amounting to 6500 billion yuan.Prior to this, China had signed bilateral currency settlement agreements with eight neighboring trading partners, including Russia.In addition, in China, on April 2009, 4, the State Council decided to carry out pilot RMB settlement for cross-border trade in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, and Dongguan, making RMB a big step forward towards becoming an international trade settlement currency.

The economic take-off of the "BRIC countries" has also benefited all countries in the world.Wealthy Russians have a growing demand for tourism, and more and more outbound tourists to neighboring countries such as Turkey and China are growing rapidly.As China's economy grows, the demand for luxury goods begins to increase.

Among the wealthy Chinese, personal or family outbound travel is popular.According to the data released by France on September 2010, 9, the number of foreign tourists visiting France in the summer of that year increased by 1%.Among the 10% of this increase, tourists from the "BRIC countries" accounted for the vast majority, especially the increase in Chinese tourists was even greater.The specific data are: Chinese tourists increased by 48%, Russian tourists increased by 54%, and Latin American tourists increased by 23%.European tourists began to decline, among them, British tourists to France fell by 5%.

With the improvement of the economic level of the "BRIC countries", their voice in the international economy has also increased.After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the economies of many countries were severely damaged. In order to stabilize the world economy, the International Monetary Fund established a loan project to resist the economic crisis. From 2009 to 2011, at the Washington meeting held by the International Monetary Fund, the 26 members agreed to increase the amount of loans used to resist the economic crisis from the originally promised US$5000 billion to US$6000 billion. In December 2009, Brazil's representative to the International Monetary Fund stated in Washington that China, India, Russia and Brazil, the "BRICs", have a collective veto on how to use US$12 billion in loans to withstand the economic crisis.

The discourse power of the "BRIC countries" is not only reflected in the world economy, but also in other aspects. In April 2010, the second summit of the "BRIC countries" was held in Brazil as scheduled.

Topics for this summit include world economy, financial situation, "G[-]" affairs, reform of international financial institutions, climate change and cooperation among the four countries.The Chinese spokesman said that he hoped that the meeting of the leaders of the "BRIC" countries would be based on the spirit of mutual benefit and win-win, actively negotiate on major global issues, jointly promote the recovery and sustainable growth of the world economy, and at the same time promote practical cooperation among the four countries and maintain common interests. Benefit.At the same time, he also said that the "BRICs" exchange views on major issues of international economy and development and strengthen cooperation, which is conducive to strengthening emerging markets, increasing the influence of developing countries on the world, and promoting the development of multilateralism.Brazilian President Lula said that developed countries have suffered huge losses in the financial crisis, while emerging market countries have made great contributions to saving the global economy and benefited developed countries; developed countries are no longer stimulating global production and consumption The only source of the "BRIC" should work together to change the global political and trade situation.

The outbreak of the world financial crisis has provided opportunities for emerging countries to carry out in-depth communication and cooperation. As long as the "BRIC" summit can form a stable and mature dialogue mechanism, it will attract more emerging economies to join. The four brick countries can have their own stronger voice in the global structure.

§§§ Section [-] Who is the "enemy" of the "BRIC"

Although the two summits of the "BRIC countries" showed the power of unity, this power is fragile.As an emerging force competing for the right to speak in the world, it is impossible to have no enemies, otherwise there would be no competition.The two formidable opponents before us are the United States and ASEAN.

Compared with the United States, the EU is the weakest opponent.This kind of weakness is only relative to the United States, and it is strong for the "BRIC countries".In terms of economic strength, the GDP of the EU surpasses that of the United States, ranking first in the world; in terms of cohesion, the EU is a union with a "constitution" and a common currency, while the "BRICs" have only one dialogue mechanism, and the four parties There is no partnership.Judging from these two points, the "BRIC countries" can be sighed, not to mention that as an old capitalist power, only Russia can compete with the political, military, technological and other power it has accumulated .Therefore, we must admit that the EU is not weak at all, and it is not a matter of level to become stronger than the "BRIC countries".

Besides the United States, even the European Union should be afraid of three points, its strength is obvious to all.The GDP of the United States, as a country, is in an absolute hegemony. With China's current development speed, according to the forecast of Goldman Sachs, "may surpass the United States in 2027."The reason why the word "or" is used in this forecast is because this forecast is a static forecast based on the current economic development status of China and the United States.The U.S. economy is currently in a downturn, but no one can guarantee that the U.S. economy will not recover; China is in a state of rapid economic development, but no one can guarantee that China can maintain this high-speed development.In terms of technology, the level of the "BRIC countries" is much lower than the overall level of the United States. A small chip is manufactured by the US patent, and the computer operating system is monopolized by the US company Microsoft.Needless to say, military science and technology is ahead of any country in the world. In terms of scale alone, the combined military power of the "BRIC countries" is only a "little brother" of the United States.In international politics, although NATO, which is controlled by the United States, cannot cover the sky with one hand in the United Nations, the Secretary-General of the United Nations has long been nestled in the arms of the United States and sang "carols" for the United States.

It is enough to have the two enemies of the United States and Europe, and there is no need to mention other potential enemies.

Although so much has been said about the strength of the United States and Europe, strength is just a kind of momentum.After all, the world is not ruled by the powerful alone.If—only if—the "BRICs" can form a cohesive force, then the world's political and economic structure will be divided into three parts.But in this three-point world, the life of the three parties is not easy.

Take the European Union as an example.Although the subprime mortgage financial crisis occurred in the United States, the risks in the financial sector of the European Union are actually higher than those of the United States.According to the report of the International Financial Organization, the economic bubbles in the real estate markets of Britain, Ireland and other countries have far exceeded the fundamentals, and the bubbles are getting bigger and bigger. Now the real estate industry is falling so fast that it has set a new record in the United States.Other industries in the EU are also in decline, and it will be more severe than in the US.The "troika" of the United Kingdom, France, and Germany has experienced negative economic growth one after another.Germany proposed a severe austerity plan, while the other two horses went their own way, uncontrolled the domestic budget, and intensified.The British Prime Minister had severely criticized France's stimulus fiscal policy during his visit to France, but he introduced the same stimulus policy as France on the night after his return.Due to the imbalance in the economic structure and economic strength of the EU member states, the EU's "macro-control" is in chaos.Germany avoided the tragedy of Britain and France. Instead of drinking poison to quench its thirst, Germany "severed ties" and "willed to go its own way", becoming the country with the fastest economic recovery among EU member states.

The subprime mortgage financial crisis made the United States choke once, and now it is busy spitting dirty water out.The crisis in the United States has impacted every corner of the world, and only China, whose financial industry is relatively closed, has been spared.The U.S. economy has been relying on printing money, issuing large amounts of dollars and selling bonds to maintain its high deficit and huge military expenditure.In order to maintain the financial myth, the United States controls inflation by controlling domestic dollar cash, and reduces its deficit by devaluing other foreign currencies.The United States needs to borrow more than 20 billion U.S. dollars a day from the outside to maintain the normal operation of the national economy, but the borrowing must be repaid.In order to reduce debt, the United States implements the strategy of devaluing the dollar.As a result, a paradox emerged in the United States' economic operations: on the one hand, the United States needs a strong dollar to maintain its position, and at the same time attract foreign investors to the United States to enrich its funds and maintain its continuous capital chain; Depreciation has hit investors' desire to hold dollar assets.In the process of "drinking doves to quench thirst", the U.S. government is drinking more and more thirsty, but in its hunger and thirst, it also hopes to seize high added value from other countries through the "smiling curve" to fill the huge financial gap. gap.

Although the United States and Europe are powerful, the most terrifying enemy is not them, but the "BRIC countries" themselves.

At first glance, it seems that the contradictions are concentrated on China. On closer inspection, it is nothing more than that China is not strong enough. In addition, the United States is spreading rumors and demagogues, making China the focus of debate around the world.

(End of this chapter)