Snowball Special Issue 050: "12 Ways to Make Money"

Chapter 2 How did I achieve an 1% return in 86 year? (2)
5. Bank stocks.I have participated in bank stocks many times in the past, but the results are not satisfactory. The main problem is that it is difficult to judge when the undervalued value will manifest in my mind, and I lack the patience to hold shares for a long time. In the morning session of November 11, after comprehensively analyzing the performance of the securities, insurance and banking sectors, Zhongcang bought a number of bank stocks, which closed sharply higher that day.In the next two days, it will be added to the heavy position.Later, I continued to adjust my position, and I still hold a combination of multiple bank stocks heavily.

Buying main line logic: Valuation restoration with high probability.

Reflection: Too extreme consideration of market sentiment leads to improper timing of adjustments and loss of some profits.

6.900906*ST中纺B。本年度成功投机案例。该股在6月初进入视野，于6月下旬至7月初买入，价格为0.8元左右，于7月末至9月初逐步卖出，价格为0.8至1元。

Speculative main line logic: According to the restructuring information, it is judged that B shares are seriously discounted relative to A shares and the value of B shares may be underestimated relative to fundamentals.

Reason for selling: There are other speculative targets, and speculative stocks close when they are good.

7.900913 Guoxin B shares.The stock came into view in mid-November. After 11 minutes of simple analysis, there was a lot of interest. The next day I decided to buy it, and I currently hold it heavily.

The main line of buying logic: the certainty and reasonable valuation of the large increase in natural gas and coalbed methane consumption in Shanxi Province.

Future selling logic: the valuation has reached expectations, and the company's fundamentals are close to the growth ceiling.

8. HK03027XDB Russia.Did not participate in the target transaction. In mid-December, oil prices fell sharply, and the ruble depreciated sharply, causing the Russian stock market index to plummet continuously, with the biggest drop of 12% in a single day and more than 12% in half a year.I knew this was a good time, and I also found the corresponding target - the Russian large-cap index ETF, but because I didn't open a Hong Kong stock account as soon as possible and prepared Hong Kong dollar funds, I missed the opportunity to enter the market at a low level.

Reflection: Everything needs to be prepared for a rainy day.

9. Brokerage stocks.Did not participate in the transaction of this type of target.In the first half of this year, the long-term trend of many brokerage stocks has formed a bottom shape, and the valuation is not far from breaking the net. It should be said that the space has a high margin of safety, and the only uncertainty is the time cost.The fundamentals of securities companies are closely related to the capital market. Since the second half of the year, the government has continued to support the capital market with policy support, but I still have not paid enough attention to this, and I still maintain a stubborn view that the fundamentals of securities companies are not optimistic, which eventually led to missing the low position. Entry opportunities.

Reflection: For the A-share market, the emphasis on market expectations should be appropriately increased.For national policies and major trends that may have a significant impact on fundamental expectations, we must keep an eye on it and be quick to think.

10. Infrastructure stocks, electrical engineering stocks, and engineering machinery stocks with Chinese prefixes.Did not participate in the transaction of this type of target.In the first half of this year, the long-term trend of the stocks of many representative companies in these two sectors has formed a relatively perfect bottom shape. In the past two years, their performance has declined severely or even suffered a large loss, and valuations have broken net or are about to break net everywhere.I didn't pay enough attention to the fact that the entire sector was seriously oversold, and I was too pessimistic about their fundamentals, which led to missing this round of sharp rise.

Reflection: A good company is not equal to a good stock, and a bad company is not equal to a bad stock.Always keep a comprehensive thinking and analysis framework for stocks in your mind, and keep in mind the true rule of the stock market that things must be reversed if they are extreme.

Main investment philosophy
1. Diversify investment and avoid over-concentration of positions.Keep your total position and leverage healthy.For portfolio investment, pay attention to the multi-dimensional hedging effect of the portfolio, such as the combination of large-cap stocks and small-cap stocks, the combination of defensive and cyclical stocks, and the combination of mid-valuation and low-valuation.

2. Long-term holdings should be extremely cautious, which is reflected in two aspects, one is trading and positions, and the other is analysis and tracking.Implement the three-good student stock selection idea of ​​"good company, good business, and good price".For the targets confirmed as three-good students, if there is still a certain medium-term catalyst, dare to place a heavy position at a low position.

3. Continue to improve the three-dimensional integrated stock analysis framework of fundamentals, market and capital operation, and focus on mining mid-line stocks.

4. Adhere to the principle of "cheapness is the last word" and do not participate in the hype of high-valued targets.

5. Adhere to the principle of not doing what you don’t understand, and avoid unclear losses.Even if you are lucky enough to get an unexplained profit, if it continues to be unexplained, it will eventually be returned to the market.

6. Almost no participation in short-term speculation, unless there is a very extreme market performance.Even if you want to participate, speculative positions must be strictly controlled within the scope of "small gambling and fun", and operations must be carried out in accordance with the guiding ideology of speculation.

investment thoughts
The ultimate entry point for thinking about the stock market is interest.From national policies to small retail transactions, they all stem from interest considerations.

The term is different, the core factors affecting the stock price are different, and the risks are also different.It is a typical mistake to confuse factors and risks under different deadlines and get confused in operation.Qiu Guogen put forward four levels of "looking at the short and making the long", "looking at the short and doing the short", "looking at the long and doing the long", "looking at the long and making the short", which is worth pondering.

As far as analytical thinking is concerned, it is often better to be thorough in one aspect, that is, breadth is more important than depth.But for Awkwardness, breadth and depth are equally important.If there is no breadth, it is easy for the blind to feel the elephant, and if there is no depth, it will lack the courage to hold heavy positions.

A circle of competence can be cultivated but not forced.Don't move if you don't understand it, and dare to act if you understand it.

Extreme volatility brings extreme opportunities and extreme risks, so we must be clear-headed in the face of extreme situations.It is the true rule of the stock market that things must be reversed when they are extreme.

Position control is one of the core elements of long-term risk control.

Leverage is a double-edged sword, so use it sparingly.High-leverage short-term trading is a dance on the crest of the waves, a game for the brave, I, an incompetent junior, should just sleep.

Firmly believe in the profound impact of changes in risk-free interest rates on valuation levels.

It is stupid to blindly follow the crowd, it is even more stupid to reverse for the sake of reverse, and it is extremely stupid to always think that others are stupid than yourself.Be in awe of the stupidity and madness of the world, and wary of your own stupidity and restlessness.

Outlook 2015
Under the national policy, economic, and financial environment, the capital market is likely to be relatively prosperous in 2015, so continue to maintain the overall thinking and approach of being strategically optimistic and tactically prudent and conservative.Qiu Guolu’s analysis framework of “bottom of policy —> bottom of market —> bottom of economy —> bottom of profit” and the theory of plate rotation are worth learning, and we can grasp the general direction under this framework.

Taking into consideration, the sectors worth focusing on in 2015 are:

1. Potential stocks for state-owned enterprise reform.

2. Finance.The direction of further evolution needs to be considered.

3. Alcohol.The fundamentals are gradually stabilizing, and the cash flow advantage is still huge, and allocation can be considered when the valuation is reasonable.

4. Electricity.Focus on the hydropower sector.Although the increase has been huge, if the long-term cash flow is sufficient and the valuation is reasonable, you can consider allocation.

5. Medicine.The performance of the pharmaceutical sector was weak throughout the year.Because I don't understand, I dare not participate in the pharmaceutical sector for a long time.Strengthen study and research next year, and strive to understand a small part, and medical circulation can be the focus.

6. Petroleum services.With the oil services sector overall weaker due to the sharp drop in oil prices, some opportunities may emerge.

7. Automobiles and auto parts.Plates that have never been studied and paid attention to.Consider it included in your studies.

8. Logistics.Continue to pay attention to the logistics industry and enter the study and research of subdivided fields.

9. Cement and coal.Compared with other cyclical industries, the current gains of these two sectors are relatively small, and their valuations are relatively low.The overcapacity of these two industries and the evolution direction after the elimination of backward production capacity are worthy of attention.

Conversely, the sectors considered to avoid in 2015 are:

1. Most of the stocks in the IT software sector.Such stocks have risen to the sky, with high valuations, and no surprises, most of them will show mean reversion.

2. A large number of manufacturing stocks in small and medium-sized enterprises.Such stocks must be carefully selected.

3. Aviation and shipping sector.There has been a round of speculation this year, and the fundamentals and the market basically do not have the potential to continue to rise sharply.

4. Nonferrous metals and other sectors that are highly correlated with the external macro environment.The main reason is that my level is not enough.

Conclusion
Investing is a marathon, I just started, and there is still a long way to go.Try to see the facts clearly, understand the truth, and live more clearly.The true meaning of the stock market lies outside the stock market.

(End of this chapter)