Snowball Special Issue 050: "12 Ways to Make Money"

Chapter 7 2014% Return in 78, Five Tips

邹沂臻，个人投资者，发表时间：2014-12-30，下载雪球APP：http：//xueqiu.com/r/2YviQn；原文链接：http：//xueqiu.com/6059072589/34602197
Writing a year-end investment summary seems to be a very fashionable thing these days, and I can't help it.Looking at the summaries of various great gods in the past years, either the history of blood and tears, or the benefits of the gods, I was taken aback when I saw it (don’t spray it, everyone, it’s really true).For example, in the first two years when the market was not doing well, the big masters often had 50%+ or even 100%+ returns, which really made many novices excited, even me, a 20-year-old stockholder, was After watching the sweat, there is only one sentence left in the end - I have lived in vain!

This year, the income is still so-so, so hurry up and let it out.At the same time, by the way, I would like to talk about some of my experience this year.

78.5. Annual income: [-]%
A shares: 62% (funds account for about 20%)

B shares: 13% (funds account for 10%)

H shares: 110% (funds account for 60%)

US stocks: -12% (funds accounted for 10%)

[-]. Current holdings

A shares: China Pacific Insurance
B shares: unanimous B
H shares: New China Insurance Warrant, Bank of China Warrant, Ping An, CITIC Securities

US stocks: CCM
Remarks: The above positions only represent the holdings on December 2014, 12, and the individual stocks may change at any time.

Three or five points

1. What do you know that others don't?Everyone has their own circle of competence, but most people like to get involved in fields that they are not good at, which is what we call "using their own shortcomings to overcome others' strengths", and the result is naturally miserable.Looking at several large loss-making transactions this year, this is the case without exception.

2. What market misjudgments have you understood?Many times we follow the market, look at the K-line, and bet on tomorrow. In fact, the market has an error correction function, but it is not timely enough, which creates opportunities for us to make profits, but do you have the patience to wait for the market to correct errors? ?In fact, most people did not, including me of course. In May, I took a fancy to $ Beixin Building Materials (SZ5) $, but left before it rose. Although the insurance stock $ Ping An (SH000786) I bought later $China Pacific Insurance (SH601318)$$New China Insurance (SH601601)$ is also not bad, but the trend of BNBM also makes me feel ashamed.

3. Can you stay focused?In principle, holding too many shares (especially too many cross-industry) is a sign of failure to maintain focus.If you are careful, you will find that all the great masters who have obtained high returns hold a big bull stock heavily until the stock price is crazy and then sell it to become famous. You may say "I dare not, I want to diversify my investment", then see How much capital do you have? If you are less than 100 million, in principle, the three stocks are a bit too much, especially in the market with such a good liquidity of A shares.This year, my biggest income in the Hong Kong stock market came from the insurance stock $Xinhua Insurance (3)$, which was a bit of luck.

4. When to increase leverage?This is very difficult, and I don’t do it well. For example, in early May this year, I bought a $Shanghai Electric (5) $ warrant, but it was washed off in the end. If I persist for another 02727-3 days, it will be completely Another scene.At that time, Shanghai Electric rose from 5 to 2.7 after I sold it, and its warrant rose from 4.8 to 0.1, and the highest even reached 0.6.Adding leverage requires a strong sense of rhythm and market sense, and the safest way is to rather chase than buy a set.Or buy long-term, low-leverage ones, and you can also usher in your own spring.In short, stocks can be traded on the left side, but warrants cannot, so you need to be cautious.

5. Can you manage your expectations?This is for myself. When I come to this market, I should have a rational judgment, not what others say.Nothing can go up to the sky. You should think about when to sell it on the day you buy it. How many "Tencents" are there in China that allow you to buy something that will make you money forever?Even if you miss a $Tencent Holdings (00700)$, at least you have avoided 99% of the disaster.

V. Outlook for 2015

1. Crazy blue chips will cause the market to die prematurely.This is my basic point of view. Although I am optimistic about the restoration of the valuation of the big blue chips, the management does not want the stock market to soar. Comrades must believe in the government's ability to regulate the stock market. One day the government will definitely say: There are many means. Don't push me!

Of course I hope for a big rise next year, but the volatility of the market next year will not be small and will far exceed this year. I predict that A shares will fluctuate by 500-800 points, and it is very likely that most people will still not make money.Whether the market can continue depends on the timeliness of the reform of state-owned enterprises and whether the improvement of macro fundamentals meets expectations.

2. The opportunities for individual stocks next year are definitely not the ones that brokerages have summed up.Everyone, have you watched too much, do you feel tired?Have you ever felt that almost everyone’s optimistic stocks are similar?What does such a high degree of agreement indicate?Believe me not to say, you should also understand.

3. Which sector is more certain?I think it's banks in the short term, and insurance and securities companies in the medium term.Why do we say that it is a bank in the short term, because the underestimation of bank stocks is the most obvious. Even with the rise in December, it is still underestimated as a whole, because if it is cheap, Minsheng and China Merchants are definitely not the cheapest among bank stocks. Why is Anbang still like this? You should know if you buy Minsheng Bank willfully.

4. Where are the biggest opportunities?I think it is Hong Kong Stock Connect, which has been ignored by most people. Just about a week ago, Li Xiaojia of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange spoke, and it is estimated that many people did not pay attention at all.Don’t you think that after the opening of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the use of such a low quota is what the authorities want to see?Was this their original intention?If it goes on like this, won't it become a laughing stock?If you were Li Xiaojia, what would you do?Well, I will stop talking.There are always opportunities, it depends on whether you have a pair of wise eyes.

(End of this chapter)