Winning the new financial era

Chapter 411 200 Billion Annual Revenue
Regarding the valuation of Pinduoduo, all parties basically agree.

Whether e-commerce can make money, pioneers such as Amazon and Ali have already found a way to success, and Zhang Yida does not need to explain too much.

But short video is different. This is an emerging industry. At present, no company whose main business is short video has successfully listed.

Can you make money?The answer depends on the size of the user and the length of time the user uses it.

Simply put, it is traffic.

With traffic, the road of advertising monetization is easy.

You can barely take Facebook as an example. The company's main revenue also comes from advertising.

Facebook holds four major social applications: Facebook, Messenger, WhatsApp, and Instagram, with active users ranging from a few hundred million to a billion.

The huge user base and relationship chain constitute the unbreakable cornerstone of the Facebook empire.

However, Musical.ly of Zhonghe Group has been popular overseas for too short a time, and its foundation is not deep.

Investors are also afraid. If the software suddenly becomes unpopular, won’t the investment funds be locked up?

And Zhang Yida's appetite is quite large, 200 billion US dollars.

With such a large investment, you have to be cautious.

"Mr. Zhang, we came from afar and invested in Zhonghe Group with great sincerity. I think you should also show your sincerity!"

Looking at Bao Zheyu, Zhang Yida smiled and said, "I am also very sincere, and have informed Mr. Bao of all the operational data of the Zhonghe Group."

Bao Zheyu shook his head, "Disclosing these operating data to investors is only the most basic for financing negotiations.

What I mean by sincerity is that Mr. Zhang should look at the company's valuation rationally and give him a fair and reasonable price. "

Zhang Liping also answered: "Yes, the valuation of 200 billion US dollars is too high for a company that has not yet made a profit and has not proved its commercial value!"

Dongfang Yu and Ma Dongmin rarely spoke, so they just hitched a ride and followed suit.

Not the main force, naturally there is not much motivation to bargain with Zhang Yida.

Both Blackstone and BlackRock are top investment institutions, and the valuations they both recognize should be reasonable.

So the two of them drank tea quietly and watched Zhang Yida and the two major investment institutions demonstrate with various examples.

Penguin is the largest investor in this round of financing, but Liu Zhiping doesn't seem to be in a hurry.

He silently watched the few people who were talking, only listening but not talking, the cloud was extremely calm and breezy.

"Good things are naturally expensive. The same goes for companies."

Zhang Yida said with a smile: "I know what you two are worried about, worried that Musical.ly will suddenly become unpopular, or that the commercialization will not be as expected.

I can tell you very seriously: Musical.ly is addictive, and the more users play it, the more they like it.

The retention rate is very high. As long as the user has used Musical.ly, it is basically impossible to get rid of it.

In addition, the user's usage time has also been increasing, from the initial three to five minutes to the current four to five to 5 minutes.

All this is due to our algorithm recommendation mechanism, which knows what users like and recommends short videos of interest to him.

In addition, Musical.ly's user base is very young, all teenagers.

How did Facebook rise?It is not from the campus fire to the whole society.

What Zuckerberg is most worried about now is: Facebook is old and young people don't like it.

It is estimated that he has also been a little anxious in the past two years, worried about whether Facebook will be abandoned when the post-90s and post-00s grow up.

Shalabh, I believe both of you know about this company, right? "

Bao and Zhang nodded, how could Star Internet Company not know.

"Do you know how many daily active users they have? 1.58 million.

And what about market capitalization?Nearly $300 billion.Converted down, a daily active user is almost $200!

Musical.ly and DouTV have 2.45 million daily active users. Based on the $200 per user, the valuation should be $490 billion. "

"No, no, no," Bao Zheyu interrupted, "Mr. Zhang, I think you may have misunderstood something.

Snap was established in 2011 and has accompanied users for six years.

And what about Musical.ly?It was only two years, and it was only a few months for countries that entered later, such as South Korea.

It took Sharab six years to prove its user retention rate and user stickiness.

In this regard, Musical.ly is still far behind, and no one can guarantee whether it will be a flash in the pan?
In addition, I am not very optimistic about the slaw.

This company is very topical, and the founder is also good at operation, throwing out some gimmicks such as "photographing sunglasses".

Under the pressure of Facebook's four major products and Twitter, I don't think Shalab has much potential for development.

Its advertising monetization ability is also very average, and it has lost nearly 9 million US dollars in the past two years.

Can a company that only knows how to burn money and play with concepts, but cannot make profits, become the darling of the capital market for a long time?the answer is negative.

Don't look at their current market value as high as 300 billion U.S. dollars, it's hard to say what they will look like in a year or two. "

Zhang Liping took over the conversation, "Bringing up Facebook and Sharab, I think of another question.

The unlimited expansion of Musical.ly is bound to have an impact on the businesses of these two companies.

Whether it is the loss of users or the decline in user usage time, the two companies will attach great importance to it.

If Facebook and Sharab also launch short video platforms, how will Musical.ly respond?Where is your advantage or moat? "

This question was asked very levelly, but Zhang Yida couldn't help it.

He smiled and replied: "Zuckerberg is going to chase and intercept Sharabu, has he succeeded?
Facebook is flawed in terms of product originality, and both Instagram and Wattsup were acquired from others.

As for the slaw, I don't deny that Spiegel is a very creative guy.

However, sarabu also has defects, and its operational capabilities need to be further verified.Half of its users are from North America, and the remaining half are in Europe.

What about other regions?About equal to nothing.

If the two of them are going to compete with Musical.ly in the short video field, I have enough confidence to beat them.

First of all, Musical.ly has achieved the first-mover advantage and basically completed the global layout, and the rest is just a grind.

Secondly, Toutiao Video and DouTV are on the same track, but they were defeated by DouTV and went overseas.

Don’t underestimate the company Toutiao, they are very good at algorithmic recommendations.

Toutiao, a news aggregation app, is basically the only one in China. "

“Even so, I still think DouTV’s valuation is too high. $200 billion is worth 8 Kuaishou.”

Since Zhang Liping wanted to talk about Kuaishou, Zhang Yida also said along the way: "Kuaishou's daily active users are only one-third of those in China's Douyin, and counting overseas Musical.ly, it is even lower, only one-fifth.

If compared with monthly active users, the gap is more than 5 times. "

"However, Kuaishou has found the right path to commercialization. I heard that the monthly turnover of Kuaishou's live broadcast has reached 2.5 million yuan."

Zhang Yida nodded, "Live streaming is indeed a good way, DouTV and Digua videos have also been deployed.

But in terms of advertising, Kuaishou is far behind us.

After several months of exploration, DouTV's "Black Hole Engine" has also been launched. We have established advertising sales teams or authorized agents in major cities across the country.

DouTV’s current advertising dividends are huge, and advertisers are queuing up to charge money.

If I hadn't let the sales team get stuck on the cooperation threshold, it is estimated that our monthly advertising bill would exceed 10 billion yuan.

In addition, Douvision still has a lot of room for growth. At least it must reach 5 million domestic daily active users before entering a period of slow growth.

When the growth dividend has not yet peaked, advertising without restraint is like killing a chicken to get its eggs.

As for Kuaishou's valuation of US$25 billion, I believe Mr. Liu has the most say. "

Zhang Yida looked at Liu Zhiping who was standing beside him, and motioned for him to say a few words.

"Last month, Kuaishou's D round of financing was invested by Penguin, and the post-money valuation at that time was 25 billion US dollars.

As for now, some investment institutions have offered a valuation of 50 billion US dollars and want to invest in it. "

Liu Zhiping's words made Bao and Zhang a little confused.

His eyes were filled with disbelief, is it true or not?The valuation doubled in a month.

"It's true. Kuaishou's C round of investment last year was led by Qiandu."

Ma Dongmin glanced at Liu Zhiping, and said: "It can only be said that Penguin is too smart. A year ago, our investment in Kuaishou was valued at US$20 billion.

In a whole year, the valuation has increased by 5 million US dollars. "

Liu Zhiping heard the resentment in Ma Dongmin's tone, and raised his hand as a sign of surrender, "Mr. Ma, this is really not bad for us. We just finished voting, and Kuaishou's live broadcast business started.

And last year, when Kuaishou had 2000 million daily active users, it was sideways for more than half a year.

Who knew that after the launch of the live broadcast service, it not only brought hundreds of millions of monthly turnover, but also drove the growth of users. "

Zhang Yida looked at Bao and Zhang, "A small Kuaishou is valued at US$50 billion. We are five times bigger than them. Shouldn't the valuation be US$5 billion?"

Bao Zheyu looked at Ma Dongmin for a while, and then at Liu Zhiping for a while, don't you two play oboe with me?
"Mr. Bao, don't believe me, Kuaishou's valuation is not a secret at all if you inquire carefully in the investment circle."

Bao Zheyu shook his head, "I just think it's hard for Penguin and Qiandu to become shareholders of Zhonghe Group as well as shareholders of Kuaishou."

Ma Dongmin laughed and said, "What's so hard to understand? This trick is called "hedging" on Wall Street, and hedging in China.

Of course, the investment in Zhonghe Group is our Robin Lee family office and has nothing to do with Qiandu Company. "

Liu Zhiping didn't bother to explain, what's wrong with me just betting on both sides?That's Penguin's right to be the pole of the Internet.

As a Chinese, Zhang Liping understands the division of Internet camps in China better than Bao Zheyu.

To be honest, there have been too many big dramas in China in recent years, from Didi to Meituan, to Zhonghe Group, Kuaishou, it is like you have me, and I have you, a mess that makes people dazzled.

If you don't understand the "combination of vertical and horizontal" in traditional Chinese culture, you really can't understand it.

Zhang Liping thought about his words before slowly opening his mouth and said: "Kuaishou live broadcast has a monthly revenue of 2.5 million, if Douvision can set up a bet with a monthly revenue of 12.5 billion and an annual revenue of 250 billion.

Blackstone Group can give Douvision a valuation of US$200 billion. "

"The monthly revenue is 12.5 billion, and the annual revenue should be 150 billion, right? Also, if you want to bet against each other, Douvision's valuation must be 250 billion U.S. dollars."

Zhang Liping shook his head, frowned and said: "Mr. Zhang, it's 12.5 billion in a single month, it's impossible for Douvision not to maintain a certain growth rate, right?
Investment companies must value its growth rate and prospects.For a company with a fixed monthly revenue of 12.5 billion yuan, what is the use of investment for us?
We have taken a lot of risk at a valuation of US$200 billion, let alone US$250 billion. "

"It is okay to sign a VAM agreement, but a corresponding valuation must be given.

With a valuation of 200 billion US dollars, the revenue bet is 150 billion yuan; if the valuation of 250 billion US dollars is agreed, the revenue bet can be set at 200 billion yuan. "

Dongfang Yu watched Zhang Yida's "outrageous words" from the side, and he also admired this junior.

DouTV only started commercialization at the end of last year, and now its monthly revenue is only [-] to [-] million yuan.

Under such circumstances, dare to bet against others with a revenue of 200 billion, what a bold artist!
Liu Zhiping was drinking tea at the side, he knew that Zhang Yida had started to play tricks again.

None of the investment institutions that bet with him has taken advantage of it.

Penguin has suffered losses, Blackshirt Capital, Zhenke Fund, Softbank... There are a lot of investment institutions that have lost.

Zhang Liping was a little hesitant, he really wanted to choose the 200 billion revenue betting plan.

But if you lose, the loss will be heavy.

Bao Zheyu is ready to move. He does not believe that DouTV can increase its advertising revenue by 10 times within a year.

A rough estimate will tell you that you want to reach an annual revenue of 200 billion from a monthly revenue of [-] to [-] million.

Must maintain a monthly compound growth rate of more than 20% every month.

That is to say, taking the monthly revenue of 4 million as an example, the next month must reach 4.8 million, and the next month is 4.8 million multiplied by 1.2 times...

There can be no mistakes in the middle, and if there is a mistake, it will be over.

It can also grow faster in the first few months, much higher than 20%, and the growth pressure in the next few months will be less.

"We BlackRock gambled, giving you a valuation of 250 billion US dollars, betting on 200 billion annual revenue!"

　Thanks to the book friend Haizhong Qingfeng for the reward!

　　
　
(End of this chapter)