psychochemist

Chapter 337 Liu Hailing is the Best

The more active the choice, the more difficult it is for the chooser, because he has to bear full responsibility for the consequences of this choice.

Seeing that Liu Hailing seemed to have some thoughts, Yu Fan asked, "Hailing, do you know which color button to choose? I can't read much useful information about Xu Suanyi's state right now."

Liu Hailing quietly asked Yu Fan: "What can you read now?"

Yu Fan looked at Xu Suanyi who was dancing abnormally not far away, and whispered to Liu Hailing: "It seems that Xu Suanyi's 'gambler personality' has been fully activated, although this situation also surprised me , but the facts seem to be so. Once a gambler enters this state, he will fall into a kind of irrational blind confidence! It is the 'gambler's fallacy'!"

Liu Hailing: "The gambler's fallacy? I seem to have seen this term in investment books."

Yu Fan: "The gambler's fallacy is characterized by the fact that they always believe that their expected goal will come, just like when betting on roulette, the probability of each hand being red or black is 50%, but the gambler thinks that if he Betting on red, if black appears several times in a row, the chance of red appearing next time will increase. If it is not this time, then it will be more certain next time. 50%. So the gambler thinks that the worse he loses, the greater the probability of winning next time, he will fight harder, double the bet, and keep raising the chips, hoping to redeem the loss and double the profit in one fell swoop.”

Liu Hailing made it clear: "That is to say, he lost his reputation, status, money, etc. before, and he has already lost badly, so he will feel that since he has lost so badly before, the probability of winning next time is even higher." It will be huge. In his heart, he has already lost so much that he can't lose anymore, so this time, he has great confidence in winning the game against us, even the confidence to win! So he dared to bet his life It makes sense too, right?"

Yu Fan said quietly: "That's right, there are three major psychological characteristics of gamblers. The main characteristics of gamblers' psychology. First, they only want to try their luck to make a fortune, and they are unwilling to work to get rich and start a business to get rich; second, they dare to put all their eggs in one basket and take risks." , even at the cost of his life; third, in order to achieve his goal, he can use any means. So his bet is true, he really dares to bet his life with us! But even if I know this, I have no countermeasures, just confirmed Check out the truth of the danger." Yu Fan wiped the sweat from his forehead again.

"There are still 5 minutes. Have you discussed it?" Xu Suanyi urged while shaking his body.This state is quite like taking drugs.

Yu Fan: "Hai Ling, just now you said you have an optimal solution, what is that?"

Liu Hailing: "The investment field I study is actually a kind of gambling, but it is different from the gambling between gamblers. What I do every day is - bet against the dealer!"

Yu Fan looked very surprised: "Bet against the dealer?"

Liu Hailing said affirmatively: "That's right, bet against the dealer. I analyze problems differently from you. You are good at analyzing the information in front of you and making logical reasoning about what you can see. But I am different. The dealer I faced was invisible and intangible, I didn’t know where the dealer was, who he was, let alone what he wanted to do next.”

Liu Hailing's brain circuit was indeed a bit novel. Yu Fan was full of curiosity and asked, "You don't even know anything about your opponent, so how can you win?"

Liu Hailing looked at her watch, turned her head and said to Fan: "Since I can't see where the dealer is, then I assume that he is everywhere! Since I don't know who the dealer is, then I assume that everyone is a dealer! Since I don’t know what he wants to do next, so I will list every possibility for the dealer.”

Yu Fan suddenly realized: "This is the idea of ​​game theory!"

Liu Hailing admired: "Brother Yu really has extensive knowledge, yes, it is game theory. Let's assume that this game is fake, Xu Suanyi is determined to kill us, then no matter which button we press, the smoke that is poured The tanks of nitrate will be on our heads. If we stand, we will be burned to death by nitric acid. If we run, we will be shot to death by Xu Suanyi. But brother Yu, your analysis just now confirmed that this game is a real possibility It's bigger, but I still have to take that into account."

Liu Hailing took a breath, and continued: "Then, if this game is real. These two buttons, one controls the smoke tank on our head, and the other controls the tank on his head. If it is our head that is dumped If the dumped vat was on Xu Suanyi's head, it would be interesting if we were burned to death by nitric acid or shot to death by Xu Suanyi. He could choose to die where he was, or Choose to escape on the spot. If we die where we are, it’s better to say that we are out of danger, and then taken away for investigation. If Xu Suanyi chooses to escape by playing tricks, then we are still in a passive position, because..."

"Because gamblers don't allow themselves to lose!" Yu Fan continued.

Liu Hailing sighed and nodded, "Exactly. I think he must have other plans to target us. We are still very dangerous."

"3 minutes!" Xu Suanyi made a strange voice.This voice is as disturbing as a ghost.

Yu Fan swallowed, thinking hard, whether to press the red button or the green button, damn it, time is running out, Yu Fan, calm down, calm down, there must be some clues that I missed, there must be more!his clothes?Behavioral habits?Linguistic sentence?Tone?Status symbol?Damn...

The harsh environment made it difficult for Yu Fan to think of countermeasures.

"Brother Yu, can you trust me again?" Liu Hailing said to Fan calmly and softly.

Yu Fan: "Of course I believe you. It's just...you analyzed it just now, and it's clearly a dead end in front of us. No matter which button we press, we can't win this bet."

"2 minutes!" Xu Suanyi urged his life.

Liu Hailing smiled and said to Fan: "Brother Yu, as I said, I bet against the dealer every day. Betting against the dealer is the most risky, but over the years, my wealth has not decreased but increased. It’s because I realized a set of experiences in betting against the dealer. It’s exactly what I just said, the best choice for betting against the dealer.”

Yu Fan: "Oh? Even in a situation with no chance of winning, is there still the best choice?"

"There is one last minute left!" Xu Suanyi issued an ultimatum.

Liu Hailing said firmly to Fan: "That's right, you can call it——Liu Hailing the best!"

　Life is not a sprint, but a marathon, you have to endure it, endure it for a long time, and endure it for a long time - imidazoline
　　
　
(End of this chapter)