One mobile phone to conquer the world: mankind's last chance for gold nuggets

Chapter 25 How can a broken industry be reborn? (2)
For the development of transmission technology, we would like to thank the Chinese physicist Gao Kun.He is known as the "Father of Optical Fiber Communication". In 1966, he first clearly proposed the idea of ​​using optical fiber for laser communication. In 2009, Kao was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics for his "pioneering achievements in transmitting light in fibers for optical communication".It is a pity that when he won the award, Gao Kun had already suffered from Alzheimer's disease. When he was interviewed by San Francisco Chinese TV Station at home, his wife Huang Meiyun asked him gently: "Are you the 'father of optical fiber'?" Said: "Optical fiber...the father of optical fiber."

Kao's optical fiber communication is the first time that human beings have realized the transmission of information at a speed close to that of light, and it has greatly reduced the cost of information transmission.A single fiber of pure glass can transmit light beams over 100 kilometers, compared to about 20 meters for the strongest cables in the 60s.In the next 20 years, humans will be able to achieve almost all Internet access, transmission, and communication at zero cost. In November 25, Google launched its Internet broadband service - Google Fiber (Google Fiber) in Kansas City, Missouri, USA, officially entering the field of basic communication services.Its Internet access speed reaches 2012GB per second.However, the average Internet access speed enjoyed by Chinese netizens is only 11MB per second. This is the gap between our broadband and others.Google Fiber can download high-definition movies in seconds, record 1 high-definition TV series at one time, and store 4 hours of high-definition programs.

Knowledge point

Cloud computing, defined by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST): "Cloud computing is a pay-per-use model that provides available, convenient, and on-demand network access to configurable computing resources. Shared pools (resources including networks, servers, storage, applications, services) that can be rapidly provisioned with little administrative effort or interaction with service providers."

第二是无线的传输技术，从摩托罗拉通过无线模拟信号，发展到2G、3G、4G、5G，目前三星宣布已经成功开发出第五代移动通信技术，三星5G技术在28GHz的频段下下载速度达到每秒1G，相当于1秒钟就能下载一部两小时的高清大片。而当前的4GLTE网络数据传输速度为每秒50～100M。而三星5G技术的理论下载速度将达到每秒10G。这样的信息传输速度，将使打电话、手机上网、电脑上网的成本几万倍地下降。

In the era of WeChat, the way out for operators

Carrier transformation: Large traffic pipelines are the foundation, and big data platform operations are the core. Only by combining the advantages of traffic management and customer big data management can the front desk and the back office, online and offline, be opened up and cooperate from the inside out. Free traffic as a guide, to kidnap high-quality content applications, attract a large number of users and development partners, use big data precision marketing platform to incubate partners, and rely on differentiated and diversified income to achieve rebirth!Tianyi video mode is the direction!
——@北邦王立新微博 November 2013, 8

Knowledge point

The past and present of China's three major operators[3]
In 1980, every 1 people in China had an average of less than half of the telephones, which was only 3/1 of the telephone penetration rate in Africa, 7/1 of the average penetration rate in Asia, and 10/[-] of the average telephone penetration rate in the world.

In 1994, China Unicom was officially established. It has shouldered the mission of "breaking monopoly" since its birth. This is the first step in the telecommunications reform.

In 1999, the Ministry of Information Industry decided to split China Telecom. China Telecom's paging, satellite and mobile services were divested. The original China Telecom was split into three new companies: China Telecom, China Mobile and China Satcom.

On May 2000, 5, China Telecom Corporation was established after divesting wireless paging, mobile communications and satellite communications businesses.

In 2002, China Telecom split from north to south, forming the current China Telecom and China Netcom, together with China Railcom, the competition pattern of the six major operators formally formed.

Three Kingdoms
From 2002 to 2008, the telecommunications industry began to staking-style competition, forming a "quasi-three" pattern of China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom. In 2007, China Mobile had 3.69 million subscribers and a revenue of 3569 billion yuan.China Telecom had 2.27 million telephone users, 3810 million broadband users, and a revenue of 1771 billion yuan.China Unicom has 1.6 million users and a revenue of 995 billion yuan.

Six-in-three combination

On May 2008, 5, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued an announcement that China Telecom acquired China Unicom's CDMA network (including assets and users), China Unicom merged with China Netcom, and China Netcom's basic telecommunications business merged. China Unicom, China Railcom merged into China Mobile, and the number of domestic telecom operators changed from five to three.

3G era
2009G licenses were issued in January 1: China Mobile obtained the TD-SCDMA license, China Telecom obtained the CDMA3 license, and China Unicom obtained the WCDMA license.

2013年6月，三大运营商3G用户数过亿，中国移动1.37亿户、中国联通1亿，中国电信0.87亿。

OTT crisis
In the first half of 2013, the number of WeChat users exceeded 4 million. my country’s WeChat users boosted Internet revenue by 56.8% year-on-year. According to research data, after using WeChat for 3 months, the per capita text messages decreased by 3% compared with before March, and the call duration decreased. 16.17%.

4G is coming
国务院常务会议决定推动2013年年内发放4G牌照，据悉中国移动将在2013年在全国超过100座城市部署20万个4G基站，覆盖5亿人口，采购100万台4G终端，以刺激规模化应用。

The biggest challenge for operators facing mobile informatization is the impact of IP services from the Internet on traditional operator services. Internet companies provide free voice, SMS, MMS, and video services.All of a sudden, operators' past sources of income were replaced by free, and they could only charge pipe traffic fees. Telecom operators around the world, including radio and television networks, have entered a new era-the era of traffic management.

First, the competition for frequency band resources is particularly important to the development of operators.For mobile operators, the biggest problem in traffic management is that the investment is large, the profit is thin, and the incremental revenue does not increase: 4G development, China Mobile will build 2013 base stations in 20, and it is estimated that it will invest 417 billion yuan , The traffic has increased by thousands of times, and China Mobile's main operating profit in 2012 began to show a -0.5% growth.Due to the high cost of mobile broadband, resources are limited.The faster the broadband upgrade, the harder it is to make money.There is a famous saying in the industry: "The future of wired broadband is unlimited, but the future of wireless broadband is limited!"

Mobile Internet information transmission has something in common with the real estate industry.The basic scarce resource of real estate is land in prime locations, and mobile Internet transmission, regardless of 3G, 4G, or 5G, also needs to divide wireless spectrum resources.For real estate developers, the larger the land they have and the closer they are to the city center, the more favorable it is for the development of real estate companies.And this also applies to mobile operators. Only when there are many spectrum resources, low frequency, and large capacity can the transmission road be wide, base stations can be easily built, and operators can live comfortably.A lot of land resources are assigned to real estate, but the land allocated to it is on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the deserts of Xinjiang. It is not only expensive to build houses, but also impossible to sell.Also for mobile operators, first of all, the spectrum resources must be wide and abundant, and the frequency segments must be large. In addition, it is also very important to obtain prime locations with low frequency resources.Because the higher the divided frequency band, the more difficult it will be to build a network, the greater the cost, and the more difficult it is to manage.

The Chinese government says it will issue 2013G licenses within 4.The Chinese government has planned 2.6-2500Hz and all 2690MHz frequency resources in the 190GHz frequency band as TDD spectrum, with a spectrum up to 190 MHz. A total of 1.8MHz in the 2.1GHz and 120GHz frequency bands is allocated to FDD spectrum.The best 4G frequency band is the 700MHz frequency band of the broadcasting network company.The value of the frequency band of radio and television is equivalent to the golden location within the third ring road in Beijing. A base station can be built every 1000 meters or 2000 meters, which is low in cost and easy to maintain.The 4G frequency resource obtained by the operator is 2500-2690Hz. The frequency range is large enough, but it is equivalent to giving a piece of land in the Xinjiang desert. The frequency resource is too high. Simply put, in this frequency range, every 300-500Hz In order to realize the communication coverage of mobile information, a base station must be built, just like the base station network built by PHS.China Mobile 4G is currently preparing to build 20 base stations. If a base station is built at a distance of 300-500 meters in China, countless base stations will be built on a land of 960 million square kilometers. It will be very difficult to build a base station at a distance of 300 meters.Not only in funds, but also in the coordination of land, and even the communication of residents, because the people in many communities and buildings will not allow you to build at all, they think there will be radiation.Therefore, the construction cost is high, the investment is large, the time is long, and the maintenance is difficult.For operators, in the process of informatization, whoever can grab good frequency resources is equivalent to getting the best prime location, so the frequency segment is the primary resource for operators to compete for.

The second important thing is the market share competition of network technology standards. In the 3G era, the mainstream standard worldwide is called W-CDMA, which is a broadband CDMA technology proposed by Europe. It has occupied more than 80% of the global market share.The US 3G technical standard is called CDMA2000, which is only used in less than 10 countries.China's own 3G technology TD-SCDMA is only operated by China Mobile.If the network technology you adopt has a low market share and few users, you will have few partners in the competition of industry alliances, and there will be few types of mobile phones and application development, which will not attract a large number of users, and you will always be on the verge of being weak. status.

Therefore, for operators, the main network construction standard is also an important determinant of development.

There are also three major standards for network technology in the 4G era. FDD-LTE is an extension and upgrade of the advantages of 3G WCDMA. In 2012, a total of 285 operators worldwide deployed FDD 93G networks in more than 4 countries.The second standard is Wimax in the United States. Wimax currently has about 800 million users worldwide, of which 60% are in the United States. Wimax is actually the earliest 4G communication standard, which appeared around 2000.The third is TD-LTE, an upgraded version of China's 3G technical standard.In the 4G era, operators all want to compete for FDD-LTE, and do not want to use TD-LTE, because the industry alliance is very fragile and cannot fight in groups.The only way for the Chinese government to support national industries is to build a TDLTE industrial ecological chain with market-oriented means.

The third key point is the innovation of business models in the era of traffic management.

"What is traffic?" For operators, different answers determine their different business models, and different business models determine the level of income and industrial status of telecom operators in the mobile Internet era.What is traffic?There are several answers:

First, traffic is bits, and the way to make money is first of all to be a bit porter, that is, pipeline.For example, China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom, they are essentially the same as China Post. Operators carry bit sacks, and postal services carry cargo sacks. They are charged according to the transportation distance, transportation time, and finally according to the sack Packet weight charges, this is the first answer to traffic.That is to say, people who came out of the communication engineering of the University of Posts and Telecommunications, the favorite traffic business model, that is, charging according to the value of 1 bit of traffic transmission, it is very hard.

Second, traffic is content, application, and informatization services.The content and application may be a song, a video, a novel, a newspaper, a piece of software, etc., and information services include lottery tickets, movie tickets, online sales services for air tickets, etc.Through such products to meet the needs of users, establish an electronic shopping mall, use consumer demand information, and convert it into a consumer order, which is the sales sharing model of the App Store, and the mobile phone is the shopping mall channel platform.China's three major operators are seeking transformation in the mobile Internet era. The most successful business model transformation and innovation is China Mobile's CRBT music base, which is the CD music store and distribution company on mobile phones.How does China Mobile Music Ringtone, an application platform, make money?First, earn traffic fees generated by music downloads.Second, the sales sharing model, benefiting the three parties, such as the song "Because of Love" written by Xiao Ke, Faye Wong and Eason Chan, users pay two yuan to download once, China Mobile charges one yuan, and the remaining one yuan is distributed to the lyrics and music Author Xiao Ke and singers Faye Wong and Eason Chan.If a song only charges traffic fees, it can only earn a few cents.China Mobile Sichuan Music Base has more than 1 million CRBT users, and its revenue in 4 was 2012 billion yuan.This is very different from the profits obtained by only charging music handling and transmission fees.As of June 237, the accumulative revenue of the mobile mid-tone platform was 2013 billion yuan.In June alone, there were 6 million downloads of Zhongyin billing, and the platform revenue was 26.89 million yuan.

Third, traffic is the attention of 12 billion Chinese mobile phone users, which is the search rate, click rate, and download rate of the mobile Internet.Internet economy is also called attention economy and eyeball economy.Because attention has become a scarce resource in this era, whoever can attract public attention and attract public attention has commercial value.How to make money by turning consumers' attention into banknotes?The most direct way is ad insertion, which is Google's answer to traffic awareness.Google says traffic is advertising, why?attention!Where it is found, it shows where the attention is.Therefore, the third business model for operators to make money is to convert mobile phone traffic into advertising revenue, develop an advertising platform based on mobile phone traffic, place advertisements, and pay for them by third parties.You can use data for free, and you can download those contents for free, but you must watch advertisements first.

Fourth, traffic is big data.All data generated by consumers clicking on any application through their mobile phones is called metadata. Metadata can truly and comprehensively reflect the mobile phone usage information of each mobile phone user at every moment in the mobile Internet era: when, where, and Who communicates, visits websites, downloads apps, buys products, stays on webpages... All these data are only known by operators such as China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom, Vodafone, and NTT DoCoMo.Big data reflects everyone's potential needs, consumption habits, and payment capabilities. The analysis, mining, management, application, and development of big data have become the core competencies for winning the world in the mobile Internet era.Such metadata is known as the largest gold mine in the information age of the mobile Internet. Its importance is similar to oil in the era of industrial civilization. Whoever owns oil is king. Mobile operators are Arab countries in the Middle East, which have natural advantages. He is the owner of big data oil and information gold.But now operators have not used big data, but instead discarded these big data, did not collect, do not store, do not analyze, do not mine, and do not operate.There are more than 300 telecommunications operators in the world. In the mobile Internet era, the ultimate success or failure depends on their ability to operate all-weather and all-round mobile metadata based on each user.This is the core means and resource for them to control the world's 65 billion mobile users.They can become the marketing kings of the global economy, and everyone needs to cooperate with him, share money with him, and pay for him.With the guidance of big data, marketing is more precise.

Fifth, traffic is the investment capital for bundling users and popular content applications. For operators, it is China Telecom's idea of ​​doing e-surfing video, using traffic as capital for industrial competition.Anyone who downloads and uses a certain service on a certain Internet platform, such as watching movies or playing games, if the announcement of "free traffic" means that the operator's Internet.com platform surpasses all competitors.Because one of the biggest costs of all Internet companies is the traffic fee. Now an ordinary consumer watches a high-definition movie on a mobile phone and pays 50 to 80 yuan for the traffic fee, because the cost directly limits the user's online behavior, and the traffic is free. It is very attractive to users.

If an operator uses traffic as investment capital, it can realize the transformation from pipeline to platform, and it can become a product incubator, because traffic is its biggest investment. Download any video on e-surfing video, enjoy traffic discounts or free traffic charges , the number of users surged to 1 million, and the number of users surpassed that of many large video websites. Then it used the scale of 1 million users to attract content providers CP, allowing them to license copyrights to Tianyi Video’s platform for free, through the platform’s Sales are then divided into value, so that Tianyi Video will become the largest video application channel platform, which will have a decisive impact on the entire industry, and this is all because of the free traffic.Help operators realize transformation through free traffic.

(End of this chapter)