One mobile phone to conquer the world: mankind's last chance for gold nuggets

Chapter 28 How can a broken industry be reborn? (5)
In the Internet age, Amazon put the shopping malls and the entire channel platform on the computer Windows table, challenging Wal-Mart and Carrefour, the world's largest shopping malls. (A company in China that emulates Amazon is Alibaba.)
Now who can open this market to mobile phones?Who is Walmart on mobile phones, and who is Amazon on mobile phones?This is a big opening, the biggest opportunity of our time.Maybe it's Alibaba, maybe it's Amazon, maybe it's a small company that we haven't seen yet.

Let's analyze what is the source of progress in the entire retail industry?
Wal-Mart's success is to control customers by controlling prices and logistics, and to control production suppliers by controlling sales scale.But Amazon has completely changed it, not controlling logistics or scale, but controlling demand information, and controlling the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain by controlling consumer demand information.Master the demand, you can master the order.

The mobile phone is bound to push Amazon one step further—to control the industrial chain by controlling consumers' location-related demand information.This is the most powerful advantage of mobile phones, that is, anywhere, anytime, anything, anybody.The demand generated by the location information of each consumer is the basis for controlling the mobile Internet market.That is to say, everyone will have the most urgent needs when they are in the scene and where they are, and this kind of demand means that where I am, the demand will be there, the shopping mall will be there, and the service will be there. .

Therefore, whoever has the demand information based on location-based services is the Wal-Mart in the mobile Internet era.

From the perspective of resource advantages, there are only two companies in the world that are most likely to become Wal-Mart for mobile phones: one is China Mobile and the other is Vodafone.China Mobile has 7.4 million users, making it the operator with the largest user base in the world; Vodafone has invested in 27 countries around the world, and cooperates with local mobile phone operators in 14 other countries, making it the operator with the largest number of countries .

Why are they great?They control either the widest range or the largest number of mobile users, and they have the most abundant and timely data on the demand and consumption behavior generated by each user's location.However, whether China Mobile or Vodafone can effectively grasp this opportunity and make good use of the informatization resources in their hands, the innovation of the "de-telecomization" model is the most fundamental.It is even possible to reorganize a mobile Wal-Mart in a cooperative manner, such as the cooperation between China Mobile and Alibaba, or the combination of Vodafone and Amazon.

The History and Model of E-Commerce Development
From selling traditional products with informatization to selling informatization products

When Amazon first started selling books, it sold paper books. It relied on discounts and low prices to compete with traditional offline bookstores, and it still belongs to the informatization of traditional bookstores.Up to now, Amazon has become an information-based bookstore. It has specially developed a new information terminal called Kindle, which issues digital and electronic books for reading on Kindle.After going through these two stages, Amazon has expanded into an e-commerce site that sells everything.

business-to-business transactions

The e-commerce model generally starts with the B2B model of the vertical market. What is a vertical market?For example, Vale, Rio Tinto, and BHP Billiton are the three largest iron ore companies in the world. Their customers are Baosteel, Shougang, Anshan Iron and Steel, etc. It is very clear who they want to sell their products to, that is, to steel companies all over the world. (No more than 2), this is called a vertical market.According to the industry chain, e-commerce (B[-]B) between enterprises is the most cost-effective. This is the first stage of business model in which e-commerce is most likely to succeed. Business and trading services are realized online.This is the most successful e-commerce model in the vertical market in the early days, between the upstream and downstream supply chains of the industrial chain, and the e-commerce model of Internet informationization.

Knowledge point

Iron ore giants: Brazil's Vale is the world's largest iron ore producer and exporter and the largest mining company in the American continent. It is known as Brazil's "jewel in the crown" and "the engine of the Amazon region".The British Rio Tinto Group is one of the world's largest resource mining and mineral product suppliers, and the world's second largest iron ore producer.Australia's BHP Billiton Corporation is a world-renowned multinational company mainly engaged in oil and mining.In recent years, it has developed into the world's largest resource company.

Business-to-person and person-to-person buying and selling
The second mode of e-commerce is the B2C and C2C mode of the horizontal market.What is a horizontal market?It is not clear who the products and services are sold to. For example, those who sell Nike clothing and sports shoes do not know who will buy them. They are sold to hundreds of millions of individuals. This is a horizontal market. The relationship between buyers and sellers When a blind cat meets a dead mouse, it is like a farmer bringing 100 catties of potatoes to the farmer’s market. He does not know who will buy his potatoes, unlike the iron ore company. , they know who the buyers are without going to the market.There are two e-commerce models in the horizontal market: one is called B2C, and the other is called C2C. B2C is a company selling products to a group of individuals they don't know, and C2C is a typical flea market, where individuals sell to individuals.

Person-to-Business Buying and Selling
And what kind of e-commerce model will appear in the mobile Internet era in the future?It is the reverse vertical market of the third party.What is reverse? C (customer) knows who to buy, but customers should not buy by themselves, but gather people who need to buy this kind of product all over the world through the power of mobile information to form an individual-centered, gathered Groups with strong purchasing power, reversely go to those famous B (companies) to bargain.For example, C wants to buy a BMW. BMW is very famous for B. We specially opened a C2B website for luxury car brands, promising to buy a luxury car, and only need to pay the price of a mid-range car.All those who want to buy Mercedes-Benz and BMW gather together. There may be 200 million people in the world. They go to Mercedes-Benz and BMW to bargain in the opposite direction. Individual customers gather together through mobile informatization, which actually turns the loose C into one. Clustering becomes a group C, and then finds a very famous B, which is C2B. Why doesn’t C go directly to B, because it won’t reduce the price, and if an infinite number of Cs gather to bargain with one B or several Bs, the price of B will be lowered. This is called third-party group buying, and it is a C2B e-commerce model.

In addition to this model, there is another C2B, not by scale, but by online customization.I want a thing that I designed myself, someone help me.And in the end, it must be personalized C2B, plus 3D printing!I have an idea myself, and then design it with a mobile phone, computer intelligent software, and a 3D printer to make it, satisfy it, and consume it by myself.From C2B to C23D printing.In this case, many Bs disappeared, and many stores also disappeared, and finally C2 yourself, which is the last e-commerce.The form of the store in the future has already changed, and there is no real store anymore.Even manufacturers eventually turned into some design software service providers plus raw material suppliers.Let us think about the arrival of that era, I create my needs, C2 yourself, this is called one-person e-commerce and intelligent manufacturing services.

In the C2B model, Ctrip is the most famous in China. Ctrip has tens of millions of members and obtains discounted air tickets from dozens of airlines. The difference in the price is its income.

Operators have the best C2B advantage, because for product sales companies and product supply companies all over the world, two points are crucial: "If you don't sell things on mobile phones, you have no future." , "If you want to earn the money of China's 7.4 million people and the richest people in China, you can only cooperate with China Mobile", why?Because China Mobile has 7.4 million users, including 1 million richest users in China, and this is a typical C2B model.This is the capital for China Mobile to surpass Ctrip or cooperate with Alibaba.

China Mobile told its 7.4 million users that buying things on my mobile phone is not only the cheapest, but also gives you 10% of the consumption amount as a free phone bill. If you buy something worth 100 yuan, you will get 2 yuan in phone bills.So the world's largest C1B should be China Mobile.As a result, Ctrip will die if China Mobile does air ticket business, and Tmall may not survive if it does e-commerce.Why?This actually goes back to traffic management.China Mobile refunds the data charge, voice charge, and SMS charge according to your share of the purchases on China Mobile’s mobile phone platform. If you buy a product worth 1000 yuan, I will give you 20 yuan for the call charge. If you can’t use it up, you can exchange it Points can be exchanged for electronic money, and electronic money can be used for shopping.Then China Mobile faces suppliers and asks those B (suppliers) for a 10% discount, of which 10% is given to users, and China Mobile gets [-]% of the difference.

China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom are fighting price wars for voice services, SMS services, and traffic services every day, all of which are short-sighted battles.If China Mobile says, use my mobile phone to buy things, first, the price of the product is the cheapest, why is it the cheapest?I have 7.4 million people, who dare not give me the best discounts; second, in addition to the most favorable discounts, free phone charges and free traffic charges; third, add big data analysis, accurate advertising and Product push.Then, China Mobile is bound to become the world's largest C2B e-commerce mall.If China Mobile is a private incentive mechanism, these ideas are likely to become a reality.

The confrontation between traditional retail industry, operators and e-commerce companies
The traditional offline retail industry ultimately has to compete with operators and e-commerce companies: Wanda Plaza, Alibaba, China Mobile, who can seize the e-commerce mall on mobile phones?

Worst of all are those traditional retailers who haven't reacted yet.Now the bigger the offline scale is, the less consideration is given to informatization and mobility, and the less it is combined with mobile phones. The bigger the ship in the future, the harder it is to turn around. Conversely, Amazon and Alibaba are also undergoing transformation. The mobile clients of Amazon and Alibaba , may not be able to become the largest mobile phone market in the world.Their e-commerce platform dominates in the PC Internet era, but on smartphones, who is the largest mobile Wal-Mart mall is still a blank.

This is the most important and valuable competitive field of mobile informatization in the world.You can only make one application, such as only ticketing, train tickets, air tickets, lottery tickets, movie tickets, and make it the world's largest ticketing electronic shopping mall, and you can also make hundreds of billions.

There is also the application and incubation of big data.What is more difficult for Chinese operators is the breakthrough and innovation of the investment mechanism of the state-owned system, as well as the establishment of an incentive mechanism for core technical personnel and management personnel with stock options.Without these two breakthroughs, the business model of the incubation platform will be difficult to establish. Without the mechanism of venture capital, without the participation of individual shareholding of core talent employees, can they attract outstanding talents by paying some salaries?If it is not at the same level of competition as Internet companies, it will inevitably fail.

Case
The [-] million sky-high bet: who will win?

Both Wang Jianlin and Ma Yun were among China's top ten economically influential figures in 2012. Ma Yun said: "E-commerce will basically replace traditional industries. Because it is not a model innovation, but a change in lifestyle." Wang Jianlin believes that e-commerce and traditional industries can coexist and develop , and made a bet on the spot, the bet was 1 million. In 2022, if the e-commerce market share accounts for 50%, Wang Jianlin will give Jack Ma 1 million.If it is not enough, Ma Yun will give Wang Jianlin 1 million. [19]
2013 Tmall "Double Eleven" shopping feast
第1分钟，天猫涌入1370万用户；第1分钟，200万用户启用手机淘宝；第1分钟，UV（独立访客访问数）超过1000万；第1分钟，成交额1.16亿元。截至00：13：22时，天猫交易额突破20亿元。21分钟，天猫“双十一”购物狂欢节支付宝成交额超30亿元。

In the first hour, Tmall sold 1 million pairs of underwear, which is 200 kilometers long; 3000 million bras, which are as high as three Mount Everests.As of 160:5, the transaction volume of Tmall has reached 49 billion yuan, 100 hours and 7 minutes earlier than last year.

2013年11月11日中午13时04分，阿里“双十一”支付宝交易额超过191亿元，用了13个小时就超越了2012年“双十一”的交易额。截至晚间12点，天猫交易额350.19亿元。

Tmall "Double Eleven" shopping carnival Alipay transaction volume (unit: yuan)
55 seconds: 1 million

6 minutes 07 seconds: 10 billion

13 minutes 22 seconds: 20 billion

21 points: 30 billion

29 points: 40 billion

38 points: 50 billion

50 points: 60 billion

1 hour 03 minutes: 70 billion

5 hour 49 minutes: 100 billion

13 hour 39 minutes: 200 billion

21 hour 19 minutes: 300 billion

24 hours: 350.19 billion

After the "Double Eleven" Tmall reached 2013 billion yuan in transaction volume in 350, Ma Yun said about this gamble: "By 2020, if real estate still accounts for more than half of this society, it means that the transformation and upgrading of society will fail. Yes, it also means society as a whole loses."

From this, I can't help but sigh that the [-] million gamble of Ma Yun and Wang Jianlin undoubtedly shows the subversive changes of informatization to the traditional retail industry, but does the offline retail industry represented by Wang Jianlin definitely have no chance?

A certain type of offline retail may never die.E-commerce requires that offline services must serve online, and that offline stores must exist independently, and their positioning must be changed.If it is just a price-competitive commodity that only emphasizes cost and scale, there will be no advantage offline.Provide services that satisfy vanity, face-to-face gatherings of relatives and friends, services that focus on travel experience, etc. Such a shopping business model will not disappear, because only through offline services can spiritual consumption be greatly realized .

But the current Wanda Plaza, if it develops according to the existing model, has little chance of winning, because it does not belong to this kind of special service that satisfies vanity and psychological experience, but is just a shopping mall, which is no different from Wal-Mart. It relies on scale and chain , Compete for price and complete variety, it will definitely be defeated by Jack Ma's Alibaba and Amazon.Only "Wanda Cinema" may survive, because it is difficult to experience the sensory stimulation of shocking "blockbuster movies" on mobile phones (the transformation of Wanda Plaza will be explained in detail in Commercial Real Estate).

For the retail industry or other industries, vanity and experiential consumption will exist for a long time.This will also be the key to the survival and development of some offline industries to change their positioning.

For example, listening to Faye Wong's songs is always worthless on the Internet, but watching Faye Wong sing live must be very valuable, because you are more willing to pay for "truth".If Faye Wong's song becomes digital music and puts it on the Internet, would you buy it if you were asked to pay 1500 yuan?You won't buy it.Now Faye Wong is going to hold a concert, and I want you to buy a ticket for a VIP seat worth 1500 yuan. Are you coming?As a fan, of course you come, because this is to satisfy your vanity needs.Listening to Faye Wong's songs is just the consumption of music. Although you can see Faye Wong's concert on your mobile phone through 3D video, but you can directly spend money to go to the concert to meet Faye Wong and take photos with her up close. , the sense of value it brings is completely different.Of course, you can also use PS software technology to put Faye Wong and you on a photo, but your heart is not satisfied, no matter how realistic the software application is, it is not as precious as us holding Faye Wong to take a photo. , This is the reason why offline can finally exist.

So when we watch videos of Egyptian pyramids on TV, computers, and mobile phones, we are unwilling to spend 500 yuan to watch this video.But to travel to the pyramids, we are willing to spend tens of thousands of dollars, which is called the value of personal experience.The value of personal experience can never be replaced by virtual technology, including mobile Internet.

So IBM spent 300 million US dollars to make a virtual Forbidden City. Putting on the glasses, it is just like going to the Forbidden City.But people all over the world will never be able to stop people from spending tens of thousands of dollars to come to China to visit the Forbidden City in person.Such an irreplaceable personal experience is spiritual experiential consumption.

This difference between virtual and reality is like the difference between the value perception of natural diamonds and man-made diamonds.

A pure natural diamond, such as a 50-carat diamond, is expensive.However, it is worthless to press a piece of charcoal into a 50-carat man-made diamond with high temperature and high pressure.The reason does not lie in the physical properties of the two diamonds, but in the difference in the perceived properties of psychological value.Rare things are valuable, and natural ones are the masterpieces of nature. They are rare so they are valuable.Man-made is a fake.

The original work of Van Gogh's "Starry Sky" is of infinite value, no matter how accurate, lifelike, and high-definition it is printed, it is worthless.This is the difference in perception between virtuality and reality, which is only suitable for spiritual consumption, luxury consumption, and idol worship consumption, but not for practical consumption, functional consumption, and material consumption.

(End of this chapter)