One mobile phone to conquer the world: mankind's last chance for gold nuggets

Chapter 31 How can a broken industry be reborn? (8)
In a fundamental sense, the insurance industry is a psychological service industry based on information and data analysis, which is only reflected in finance.First, to control the probability of a certain field and type of disaster, such as aviation insurance, the most important thing is to know the probability of an airplane falling and causing an accident, and then calculate how much the loss will be. After mastering these data and Probability, establish a data model and finally judge that the insurance value is not worth doing, and how big is the risk.Second, what kind of price is sure to make a profit without losing money. If the data probability is not analyzed correctly, it will lose money.The insurance industry is actually the information industry, which is the information financial service industry based on data mining analysis.

The birth of any new insurance product is based on the control of a new risk information in related fields. The more symmetrical the information, the more money the insurance company will make.In fact, the ordinary people who take out insurance do not know how likely it is their turn to suffer risks.But the insurance company knows, so he plays on your fear.

Therefore, the most important thing in the insurance industry is actuarial calculation. In an insurance company, the actuary is the one who earns the most money besides the boss.Actuaries are experts in mathematical statistics, and the essence of mathematical statistics is data mining.Insurance companies control risks and costs through data mining, and innovate new insurance businesses.

Another big cost of insurance is the cost of promotion, which requires crowd tactics. The person who can sell the insurance must be the greatest salesperson, because the value perception of insurance is extremely low, and what customers get after paying the insurance premium is only A piece of paper is useless unless there is a real disaster.This has also led to the phenomenon of high labor costs in the traditional insurance industry.

Case
The labor cost pressure of the four major insurance companies is huge
中国人寿、中国平安、中国太保、新华保险四险企2012年的“业务及管理费占保险业务收入之比”分别为7.45%、7.57%、13.58%和10.11%。[39]
In 2012, China Life's employee salaries and benefits amounted to 120.85 billion yuan, with a total of 100 employees, and the per capita annual salary of employees calculated from this was 340 yuan, ranking first among the four major listed insurance companies.

中国平安2012年的职工薪酬及奖金为216.59亿元，在职员工合计190，284人，2012年人均薪资为11.38万元。

In 2012, China Pacific Insurance's employee salaries and bonuses were 95.89 billion yuan. There were 85 employees who signed labor contracts with CPIC (including employees of CPIC Group, CPIC Life Insurance, CPIC Property Insurance, CPIC Assets, and CPIC Online). The per capita salary of employees was 137 ten thousand yuan.

新华保险2012年职工薪酬及奖金为63.02亿元，新华保险员工共有57，487人，员工的人均年薪为10.96万元。[40]
The development of information technology in the insurance industry is slow

What is the nature of the insurance industry?It is the information economy, and the biggest source of innovation in the insurance industry is information big data.Insurance companies can analyze the probability of disasters. The more accurate the more profitable, this is the core of their competition. In the era of mobile information and the Internet of Things, such data is more accurate than the data that could be collected in the past. "Big Data Era "It is mentioned in the book that in the data age, what needs to be done is to present comprehensively, not to speculate from sampling samples, and this article will definitely subvert the foundation of the traditional insurance industry.In the past, the probability calculation of the insurance industry was based on sampling, but now the data generated by each object can be fully calculated and applied, which is bound to bring more accurate analysis and judgment, from the minimization of probability analysis errors to the era of accurate analysis of all data arrival.Therefore, the insurance industry that does not require logistics is most suitable for the innovation and change of the mobile Internet era, but the insurance industry is no match for online shopping that requires offline logistics transactions. Now the behavior of using mobile phones to buy insurance is far behind that of using mobile phones to buy clothing.The core problem is that the value perception of users and the credit of insurance companies have not been resolved.

What are the impacts of mobile informatization on the insurance industry?
First, the prediction of disaster probability is more accurate.With the Internet of Things, mobile Internet, and cloud computing, we have a more accurate control of the probability of disasters in this world, and provide the possibility of big data proof for the accuracy and innovation of new insurance business design.It provides a trans-epochal opportunity for the birth of new types of insurance and insurance methods.

Second, the subversion of insurance services.After a certain type of insurance is launched, the biggest cost is the occurrence of danger, and the insurance company needs to lose money.However, with informatization, automated car driving technology, safety monitoring system, and health monitoring system, the chances of people or things in danger will be greatly reduced, some types of insurance may disappear, and the services of insurance companies will also shift from risk claims to risk prevention.

For example, auto insurance, because of Google’s self-driving mobile informatization and remote control, people no longer need to learn to drive. They are controlled by computers and remote computers during the movement, and use information to drive cars intelligently. Cars rarely have accidents, so Insurance companies rarely need to pay compensation.However, insurance companies can use information to provide after-sales service. For example, if your villa or factory purchases property insurance, the insurance company will send you a fire prevention mobile information monitoring system for free, so that it is difficult for your villa or factory to catch fire. , or as soon as a fire breaks out, the fire brigade will come immediately, your villa and factory will not be burned down, and the insurance company will not have to pay compensation.Such an information-based monitoring system makes the flow of goods, people, aircraft, cars, and factories safer, and greatly reduces the cost of compensation.

Third, based on location insurance, it can save costs accurately and efficiently.Location-based insurance marketing on mobile phones will greatly reduce marketing costs.To give the simplest example, as soon as someone is found walking to the airport, the mobile phone will immediately ask him: "Do you want to buy aviation insurance?" As long as someone is found at the gate of Huangshan, the mobile phone will immediately provide him with a string of numbers, Last year, the number of people who fell from Huangshan and fell to death, the number of people who broke their legs, and the number of people who were injured accounted for what percentage of the total number of tourists, and told you that you only need to pay the corresponding money on the mobile phone, and you will be provided immediately. Huangshan safe travel insurance is situational insurance, which can greatly reduce marketing costs, which is also an impact on the informatization of the insurance industry.

Fourth, big data controllers have become the biggest competitors in the insurance industry.The biggest competitors in the insurance industry may not only be other insurance companies, but also companies that control data platforms in other information industries. For example, the platform controller of China's largest logistics company is likely to be the largest third party in traffic insurance Consortiums, such as Jack Ma’s future Cainiao project, will quickly enter the insurance industry once they succeed, because on the Cainiao information platform, you can see the real-time location and movement status of tens of millions of vehicles in China, and know the drivers of tens of millions of vehicles information, you can directly sell traffic safety insurance to these drivers at a cheaper price.

It can be expected that in the future there will be a Ctrip company in the insurance industry, that is, a C2B insurance model based on a third party.For example, in a certain field, control 5000 million insurance customers, and then reversely bargain with the insurance company, whoever has the lowest price will buy the insurance.After the bidding, an insurance company bids the lowest price and wins the bid, and the middleman then sells it to the user at a price slightly higher than the lowest price. The difference between the prices is the profit of the Ctrip model of the insurance industry.They have a more accurate grasp of the customer's scenario consumption needs than insurance companies.

The data controller is bound to become Ctrip for the informatization of the insurance industry, because the insurance industry has not given full play to the value of informatization at this stage, and is the most conservative and backward industry in the process of informatization.In essence, it is an information and data industry, but the informatization of China's insurance industry is not even comparable to that of China Merchants Bank.

data
A Shift in Transactional Styles in the Insurance Industry
根据艾瑞咨询《2012—2013年中国保险销售电商化研究报告》数据显示，2012年中国保险电子商务市场在线保费收入规模达到39.6亿元，相较2011年增长123.8%，占中国保险市场整体保费收入0.26%。

Case
Is ZhongAn Insurance the new hope for the insurance industry?
由阿里巴巴的马云、中国平安的马明哲、腾讯的马化腾联手设立的众安在线财产保险公司，注册资本金10亿，注册地上海，马云领导的阿里巴巴控股19.9%、平安15%、腾讯15%、携程5%，公司在2013年9月29日获得中国保监会同意开业批复。众安保险所获得的保监会审批的牌照是国内第一个也是全球第一个网络保险牌照。

A major feature of ZhongAn Insurance is that, except for its registration in Shanghai, it does not set up any branches across the country, and conducts sales and claims services entirely through the Internet.In the new battlefield of Internet trade opened up this time, the types of insurance launched have Internet characteristics. According to the "Daily Economic News", an insider revealed that the two types of insurance that Zhongan Insurance can currently develop are "freight insurance" and "Alibaba small insurance". Amount Loan Guarantee Insurance”, the premium income for the first year is expected to be 10 billion to 15 billion yuan.

"Freight insurance" is very easy to understand for people who are used to shopping on Taobao. The subject of insurance is the freight caused by the return of the goods due to the buyer's own reasons.Previously, Taobao and Huatai Insurance had cooperated in November 2010 to sell "return shipping insurance" on Taobao.It is believed that Huatai’s return shipping insurance underwritten by Taobao last year on the “Double Eleven” day’s premium income exceeded 11 million yuan.

"Alibaba Small Loan Guarantee Insurance" mainly provides loans to merchants, and then requires merchants to purchase an insurance policy.Guarantee insurance is a small type of insurance, and few insurance companies do large-scale through guarantee insurance.Guarantee insurance includes two types of insurance: one is guarantee insurance in a narrow sense, and the other is credit insurance.The subject matter of their insurance is the credit risk of the guaranteed party. When the action or omission of the guaranteed party causes the obligee to suffer economic losses, the insurer is liable for economic compensation.

Enlightenment: Young people who are interested in working in the insurance industry should join ZhongAn Insurance or create new insurance business and services. Only by making use of the convenience and accuracy of mobile, the insurance industry will have a future!

Publishing: Everyone is a writer and a reader

Current State of the Publishing Industry
According to foreign media reports, the American Publishers Association's research report based on the survey data of 1189 publishers showed that the net revenue of the e-book business in the United States exceeded that of hardcover books for the first time in the first quarter of 2012. [41]
亚马逊创始人兼CEO贝索斯公布2012年四季度财报时表示：“我们现在看到的正是我们一直期待的转变。再过5年后，电子书将是我们价值数十亿美元的业务，也是目前增长最为快速的——2012年增长约70%。相比之下，我们实体书销售在去年12月份（美国假日季）经历了过去17年历史上的最低谷，同比增长只有5%。我非常高兴也感谢客户对于Kindle以及亚马逊不断扩大业务体系的选择和回馈。”[42]
In 2012, China Mobile’s mobile phone reading base business revenue reached 25 billion, the number of customers exceeded 1 million, and the average daily page visits reached 5.8 million times. It is a large-scale mobile reading platform with 35 genuine books. The CP signed by the reading base exceeds 200 publishers, covering more than 120 publishing houses, 1000 CPs with a cumulative income of 25 million, and 100 authors with a cumulative income of more than 46 million. [43]
盛大文学为中国移动手机阅读基地最大的付费内容供应商，2011年年底云中书城移动客户端用户已接近350万人，用户活跃度超过80%。盛大文学占整个中移动手机阅读收入50%以上，各大榜单占比在60%以上，提供了中国移动手机阅读基地60%的内容，在2009年、2010年和2011年分别收入为576.3万元、6041.5万元、1.741亿元。[44]
Case
The 'Self-Publishing' Wave Sweeps America

The news that Amanda Hocking, an American "post-80s" girl, has entered Amazon's "Million Book Club" has attracted worldwide attention. Her success has set off a wave of "self-publishing" in the United States.

The so-called "self-publishing" means that the author is responsible for the design, pricing, binding and distribution of the online digital publishing system instead of traditional publishers, and publishes e-books or physical books.

Amanda puts her own novels on Amazon and other e-book websites, and completes editing, proofreading, design, promotion and other links by herself.When traditionally published books on Amazon are priced at $9.99 each, Amanda prices her novels at only $0.99 each to attract readers with a low price ratio.In more than 20 months, Amanda sold 150 million e-books and earned $250 million. [45]
Amazon started from the publishing industry. From online sales of physical books to e-books, the revolution in the publishing industry will allow Xinhua Bookstore to move to mobile phones. Innovation in the publishing industry is just the beginning.

What is the future of publishing?
The characteristics of the cultural industry: First, it does not require logistics, and it will be digitized without the physical book.The second is the experience economy, which means that customers can only judge whether it is good or bad, whether it is worth it or not, after reading this book, listening to this song, and watching this movie.But the crux of the problem is that, as an enterprise, after the customer reads it, he says: "Very good, bye!" or "Not good, bye!" The enterprise cannot receive money.But if companies don’t let customers see it, they will ask if it suits my taste, and they won’t consume it. This is the most important paradox of the experience economy.

In the era of mobile Internet, first of all, the production method of publishing content has changed. The process of creation is the process of promotion, and the process of creation is the process of consumption.Books, songs, movies, all the production process will be done by the user, self-made, self-selected.The influence of consumers directly creates a book, a piece of news, or a movie. From the stage of topic selection, consumers are involved, so that each stage will also have a click rate.Publishers can first give a theme and character, and then ask an influential and famous writer to give the keynote of the creative outline, throw out Chapter 1, hang it on the Internet, and offer a huge reward, and invite readers and netizens to write Chapter 2 , someone must be willing to create in order to get a bounty.After a period of time, vote on the Internet and choose the winner to write.This whole process is not only the process of soliciting papers, the process of creation, but also the process of marketing this book.This method subverts the roles of authors and readers, and publishing companies become service providers of cultural platforms.

Case
A group of 9-10-year-old elementary school students created a martial arts novel based on their story of Solitaire[46]
A group of 9- to 10-year-old elementary school students from Shanhu Experimental Primary School in Nan'an District of Chongqing created the martial arts novel "The Romance of Zhang Song".After the book was published by Chongqing Publishing House, 2003 copies were printed for the first time, and several copies were sold out in just over a month, and then reprinted many times.

Second, the principle of word of mouth.In the past, no one knew how many people had read a certain book, but now everyone can see the click-through rate of this book and this article in real time, and can also see how many people have given good reviews and how many people have read it. To give a bad review, in the era of mobile Internet, it will naturally solve the purchase contradiction of whether the work is worth buying or not, and whether it suits your taste.

Case
Each article on Qidian.com can be evaluated and sent with evaluation votes. High evaluation and recommendation votes will affect its position on the website. The higher the evaluation votes, the more likely it will appear on the homepage list.

Third, try reading function.You can pick out a certain paragraph for people to try to read. When you get to the most suspenseful place, the content is gone, and you have to pay to read the following.These methods will have a subversive impact on the publishing industry, music, games, and movies.

Case
The online reading fee of Qidian Chinese.com adopts the method of free reading of the first half of the novel, and the method of paying for the second half of the novel. It is sold at a price of a few cents per thousand words in units of chapters.Qidian Chinese.com will pay 50% to 70% of the total fees paid by users to authors as manuscript fees, with no upper limit.By June 2008, Qidian.com had more than 6 million registered users, including more than 2000 VIP paying users, with a maximum daily page views of 60 million, of which 2.2% of the IP browsing addresses came from overseas. [30] In 47, there were more than 2013 writers with an annual income of more than 100 million, and more than 10 writers with an annual income of more than 10.

In summary, the future changes of publishing houses will be:
First, the platform is open and everyone participates. Everyone creates books together, and then selects them according to voting, breaking the boundary between readers and authors-creators are readers, and readers are creators.

Second, the process of creation is the process of reading promotion.At the same time, it is necessary to establish a large database of customer groups, and then according to the needs of users, according to the analysis of data, to target the production and publication of content.

(End of this chapter)