Snowball Special Issue No. 028: A Guide to Preventing Fools in the Stock Market

Chapter 3 How to identify the investment masters from all walks of life on the Internet
Wake up from dream yq, individual investor, original text link: http://xueqiu.com/9285872716/30048970
Thinking of writing this topic, I first read an article written by Xueqiu netizen @唐史长司马千 last month. This article gave a lot of vivid descriptions of the various "stock gods" who defraud stockholders of their money. In the end, I found it very interesting and summed it up well, so I wanted to continue talking about this topic.

Due to some minor physical problems recently, and the feeling that writing these things that have nothing to do with investment itself is of little significance, I only wrote less than half of it, so I lost the motivation to continue writing and kept procrastinating.As a result, I recently saw Xueqiu coming to several battles every weekend. The big Vs A said that B was a fool, B said that C was a liar, and C said that A was a psychopath. The situation continued to escalate.It is estimated that there is nothing to talk about when the market is closed on weekends, and everyone is panicking and uncomfortable, so they pinch each other.In addition to sensationalizing and entertaining the public, you can also deceive some "Sprite" and idiot fans. In the end, they are still complacent, as if they have all returned home with full rewards.As everyone knows, behind these swear words and personal attacks, the so-called "victory" more vividly shows the "brilliant" image of these clowns performing on stage.

Just when I was drafting this article, I glanced at Xueqiu, and another netizen @我 had a dispute about financial management on behalf of clients. The client’s extreme admiration for the trader’s side from the beginning has finally torn face, and they want to call the police. To investigate its legal responsibility, in the final analysis, it is the fault of money.On the one hand, now that there are so many media, everyone can promote and display themselves online, which is now often referred to as self-media, and everyone is a media; on the other hand, more and more people join the investment team , hoping to learn and collect information through the Internet, make money with masters, and even let masters operate accounts on their behalf.So many big Vs, masters, and gods, are they worth our attention?Is it worth it for us to learn?Is it worth our trust?Now it seems that this is indeed a topic worthy of discussion.Here I will share with you some of my experience of surfing the Internet for so many years, for you to exchange and supplement.

I entered the market in 2007. At the beginning, I just bought some books and researched on my own. I didn’t visit any blogs or stock bars. The reason is that my reason told me that most of the people and things on the Internet were unreliable.It is precisely because of my independent thinking character that I was too "closed and self-confident" in the early stage of entering the market, which made me miss many learning opportunities.Facts over the years show that some investors who communicate online are still doing very well, and are willing to share their investment methods.However, there are still a considerable number of so-called "masters" and "stock gods" on the Internet who just sell themselves by bragging and building momentum, and their purpose is not pure.So, for new investors who have just entered the market and want to learn, how should we choose and learn from so many investors who communicate online?

First of all, let me state that I am not an investment expert, and I am still learning, so don’t spend too much time on me, and don’t think that what I say is right, otherwise it will lead you crookedly and fall into the ditch. But I can't afford the responsibility. The articles I wrote are just for discussion and exchange, and you can refer to them if you think they are useful.Although I am not a master, it should not be a big problem to identify masters.This is like saying that I am not a chef, but I also know whether the dishes are delicious. Sometimes judging things does not require a lot of professional knowledge, and common sense and reason can be used to draw conclusions, so I will also talk nonsense here. Identify the real investing pros in your network.

First, be humble, prudent, and low-key, and do not comment or criticize the investment behavior of other investors. This is the most important judgment of a person's character and character.To learn to invest, learn to be a man first. If a person's character has obvious flaws, then no matter which stock he has earned three times, five times or ten times, don't bother him.Of course, no one is perfect. Don't expect an investment master to be a saint, as long as he has the necessary qualities for investment.The investment world is unpredictable, and the fluctuation of stock prices also affects people's nerves at any time.If a person can't maintain a modest and prudent attitude, and makes a vow all day long, always thinking that he is superior to others, he will easily lose his mind, relax his vigilance, and eventually be buried by the market.Furthermore, the securities market is all-encompassing, and there are many ways to achieve success. We should not praise or belittle an investor simply by looking at the rate of return for one or two years.In my opinion, it is very difficult to make money in the stock market for a long time. If anyone does it, it is worth learning and learning from. No matter whether the income is high or low, after all, people can make money for a long time. Can you? ?Even if you don't want to learn and learn from it, there is no need to belittle or even attack others, because if you don't study deeply, you may not be clear about other people's ideas and investment logic.When you don't know the investment logic of others, the best way is not to comment.

For example, @东博老股民, who has been in the stock market for nearly 20 years, has gained a lot, and is polite in every word and deed. However, due to the downturn in bank stocks in recent years, he has been attacked and ridiculed.If you don't buy or don't agree with its investment strategy, you can sit on the sidelines, or you can reasonably question it, but don't attack it.I have never seen an old stock investor attack investors who invest in the GEM. He just said that he did not understand medicine and TMT.Regardless of stocks, as a human being, this is what a real gentleman does.Another example is another 9.8m/s2 who is good at investing in TMT. He has never seen an investor who despised bank stocks, but said that it does not conform to his investment philosophy.If you look at the big Vs in Xueqiu now, they are arguing endlessly about this, and they all feel that they are better than others. If it is just a theoretical debate, it will be fine. In reality, it will gradually turn into personal attacks in the later stage, and they will try their best to form gangs. It's a matter of character if the faction attacks the other party.

Investing has scientific components, but it is not entirely science. In fact, it is more in the category of art and philosophy.Science is a truth that is universally applicable. Of course, it is necessary to distinguish what is right from what is wrong. It should be defended at all costs. Some even gave their lives to defend scientific truth.Investing is largely a matter of faith.Everyone's logic is different, and the history of the stock market has also proved that both value investing and growth investors have successful cases, so this kind of mutual attack and abuse is meaningless, the best way is to go their own way road.Said a little off topic, continue.

Second, the age is over 30 years old, and the shareholding age is over 6 years.I don't rule out exceptions, but for the vast majority of people, I think this standard applies.Some people may say that some people are talented.Indeed, he is indeed a very talented person, but this only shows that he is more aura, but lacks one very important thing-experience.Investment is very practical, and it is extremely difficult to achieve high attainments without time accumulation and precipitation.In addition, not everyone can walk on the right path at the beginning. It can be said that most people take detours at the beginning, and detours seem to be a compulsory course for investment, because you may not even know if you don’t take detours What is the right way to do it, these processes of constant error correction and reflection will take time.Many of the current Weibo and Xueqiu users are very young, but the number of fans is no less than that of some experienced elders. This point is worth reflecting on, and it is worth paying attention to investors who want to learn. Don’t blindly follow the very young , Investors with shorter stock age, although it seems that their popularity seems to be very prosperous.

Third, the historical rate of return.At the end of the first half of each year and the end of the year, many people will post their transcripts online.Some investors will be deceived by short-term high returns. In fact, one or two years of high returns does not mean much. The shorter the time, the greater the element of luck.And the longer the time, the more it can reflect an investor's true investment level.What we need to pay special attention to is the investment performance of an investor in a bear market year, which is the most convincing.Here I want to say a point of view, that is, we should not expect to make profits every year. In the year of major adjustment, investment masters will also lose money. As long as a relatively reasonable compound growth rate is maintained in the medium and long term, there is a high probability of outperforming the index. It's not easy anymore.An investor who can make long-term and stable profits is far better than an investor who makes short-term sudden profits. Only when he is not knocked down in the storm of the market can he achieve snowballing, because money can never be earned, but it can be lost. Finish.It is very important to observe the historical rate of return for a certain period of time. Without continuous historical performance announcements, it is impossible to confirm its true level.Note that there is no way to determine, not to deny.

Fourth, whether the historical performance is credible.Judging whether the historical performance is credible mainly depends on the announcement of the firm offer.If there is no firm offer announcement, it can also be analyzed indirectly through text description.Some people push a lot of stocks, and after the event, they will say which ones have risen, and they will not mention the ones that have fallen.However, some investors have been paying attention to several stocks for a long time, and continue to follow up and down, and even continue to publish their views on the stock even under the pressure of external attacks when they fall.After this kind of suffering and baptism, these stocks did perform well in the end. In this case, even if there is no firm offer announcement, it is very convincing, indicating that the blogger or landlord has advanced vision and endurance, and perseveres until the investment is successful.

Fifth, the logic of success.When we are convinced that the performance of an investment master is true and reliable, the next thing to do is to figure out how he makes money.If you find that he made money the year before last by following hot spots, didn’t lose money last year because he happened to empty his position, and made money this year because he bet right on reorganization, and the reasons for making money every year are different, then even though he hasn’t lost money for three consecutive years, he still It should be classified as luck and individual cases, because its thinking and operation methods are not continuous, and there is no relatively fixed and reproducible routine. It is difficult for you to guarantee that this kind of investment method that hits the big luck will not capsize in the future.There are other investors who can continue to make money because they can inquire about news or keep up with masters. In this case, they cannot be regarded as real masters, and they are very deceptive. We must carefully screen them out to see their profits. Where does the source of money come from? Don't think that those who make money are masters.

Sixth, writing style.Those who are not fluent in writing cannot be investment masters.This is easy to understand. Investment requires a lot of reading, and people who read often will not be unable to write fluent sentences. Organizing words is a basic skill. Fluent writing here does not refer to literary talent, but expresses things clearly. an ability.Now some people on the blog and Xueqiu, you can see that what he writes is like a composition written by a third-grade elementary school student. Such a person cannot be a master at all, no matter how he brags.

Seventh, show off.Most people like to show off how much money they have made, but never mention their loss experience, at least they don't want to mention it in public.But a small number of investors always mention where they made mistakes and lost money again, but in the end they actually made a lot of money in the end.Such investors are not hypocritical, but an expression of openness, indifference and self-confidence.

Eighth, the fees charged are all unreliable.There are many ways to charge, such as stock QQ groups, SMS notifications, blog charges, etc., claiming that there are stock gods and teachers to help you operate and let you grasp the daily limit, these are all deceptive.Furthermore, some software sellers can catch dark horses by relying on various data, various indicators, and various signals, all of which are deceptive.We don't need to look for any evidence to prove that they are liars. We just need to reason logically. If these "stock gods" really have such great skills, why don't they buy stocks themselves to make money, but go to great lengths to charge others? ?Maybe they will quibble and say: "We are the ones who are truly sharing selflessly. In addition to making money for ourselves, we also help people who don't understand stocks make money."

Ninth, no abnormal behavior.People on social networks can be divided into two categories according to the proportion of their speeches. One type writes for others to read, and the other reads other people’s writing.As long as it is within this framework, the problem will not be too big. Everyone will get to know each other through some authors' articles or stocks of common concern, and then communicate. If there are more exchanges and like-minded people, they may become friends.This is the normal human-to-human contact pattern of social networks.If someone takes the initiative to make friends with you in a completely unfamiliar situation, and shows off how high his level is, and at the same time thinks that you are the friend he is looking for, and wants to keep in touch with each other, this seemingly sincere but very abrupt Behavior is very suspicious.This is the case with Yu Sen. At that time, he sent me a private letter, but I ignored him because I thought his behavior was abnormal and had some obvious purpose.Of course, there will be many different situations, and a major criterion is whether a person's words and actions are in line with common sense.What is common sense?For example: there will be no pie in the sky, no profit will not get you early, people who are N times stronger than you (such as knowledge, talent, ability, and capital) will not take the initiative to you, it is impossible for strangers to confide in you, and so on.As long as we keep our eyes open and think rationally, in fact, we can see the virtual world of the Internet with a good understanding.Then communicate selectively, stay away from those who are meaningless to us and may even hurt us, treat those like-minded friends kindly, and respect those truly talented and capable investment masters.

(End of this chapter)