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Chapter 36 Securities Market: "Gold Panning" in Opportunities and Risks (2)
1. The principle of profitability

It should be said that the purpose of investors is to obtain benefits, and no one wants to invest a sum of money, and the result is that meat buns beat dogs and never return.Generally speaking, the bonds issued by the state (including local governments) are guaranteed by the government's tax revenue and have a fully secure repayment guarantee. It is generally considered to be a risk-free reward, and the profitability of corporate bonds is bound to be higher than that of government bonds.Of course, this is only a comparison of their nominal returns.

2. Safety principles

We all know that investing in bonds is much safer than other investment tools, but this is only relative, and the problem of its safety still exists, because the economic environment changes, the operating conditions change, and the credit rating of the bond issuer is not static. of.As far as government bonds and corporate bonds are concerned, the safety of government bonds is relatively high, while corporate bonds sometimes face the risk of default, especially when the company is in poor management or even goes bankrupt, it is unlikely to repay all principal and interest. Bonds are far less safe than government bonds.

3. Liquidity principle

This principle refers to the speed of recovering the principal of the bond.The liquidity of the bond means that the bond can be converted into currency at a faster speed, and at the same time, the value calculated in currency will not be lost. On the contrary, it indicates that the bond has poor liquidity.

The stock market: a financial ecology composed of wolves and sheep

Few people know that the earliest stock market in China was registered at the Japanese Consulate in Shanghai in 1919 by a shrewd Japanese businessman.And Chiang Kai-shek turned out to be one of the earliest stockholders in China.

In 1919, Japanese businessmen opened the "Taiyinsuo" (that is, the exchange) on Sanma Road in the Shanghai Concession.Chiang Kai-shek and Yu Qiaqing used the boycott of the stock exchange as an excuse to request the Beijing government to quickly approve the establishment of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

At this time, the Beijing regime was controlled by Zhili warlords. Cao Kun, Wu Peifu and others did not want the Japanese to intervene in Chinese affairs in any way.As a result, China's first comprehensive exchange led by stocks was approved to be established.

On February 1920, 2, the Shanghai Stock Exchange was established. The chairman of the board is Yu Qiaqing, the executive directors are Guo Waifeng, Wen Lanting, Zhao Linshi, Sheng Pihua, Shen Runyi, Zhou Peizhen and other six people, 1 directors, and the supervisors are Zhou Junyan and others.There are seven kinds of trading items, which are securities, cotton, cotton yarn, cloth, gold and silver, grain oil, and fur. After the "Exchange Law" was promulgated on October 17, 1929, it merged the cotton yarn transactions in the articles into the gauze exchange according to law; the securities part was merged into the stock exchange in the summer and autumn of 10, and the gold and article transactions were merged into the gold trade Place.

General exchange transactions are handled by brokers.The broker pays a considerable deposit in the exchange, and buys and sells goods on behalf of merchants in the market to obtain corresponding commissions.Chiang Kai-shek, Chen Guofu, Dai Jitao and others with financial strength became the first batch of brokers of Shanghai Stock Exchange.But because of limited financial resources, they are not shareholders of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, but only shareholders of the "Hengtai" they serve.Hengtaihao is just one of the brokerage agencies of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

The business scope of Hengtai is to buy and sell various securities and cotton yarn on behalf of customers. The total capital is 35000 yuan in silver coins, and each share is 1000 yuan, which is divided into 35 shares.There are 17 shareholders including Chiang Kai-shek, but in order to avoid suspicion, their real names are often not used in the contract.Chiang Kai-shek used the code name "Jiang Weiji".

Chiang Kai-shek was one of the first brokers in China. This news is probably unheard of for many people who have been involved in the stock market.In fact, when Chiang Kai-shek was a broker, the main business of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was still bulk futures commodities such as cotton.There was no real stock market at that time.

The stock market refers to the market where the issued stocks are transferred, traded and circulated according to the current price, including the trading market and the circulation market.The stock circulation market includes all activities of stock circulation.The existence and development of the stock circulation market has created a favorable financing environment for stock issuers, and investors can buy and sell stocks at any time according to their own investment plans and market changes.Since the worries of investors are relieved, they can safely participate in the subscription activities in the stock issuance market, which is conducive to the company's long-term financing, and the smooth circulation of stocks also plays a positive role in promoting stock issuance.For investors, through the activities in the stock circulation market, long-term investment can be short-term, and they can switch between stocks and cash at any time, which enhances the liquidity and security of stocks.The price in the stock circulation market is a barometer that reflects economic trends. It can sensitively reflect changes in capital supply and demand, market supply and demand, industry prospects and political situations. It is an important indicator for economic forecasting and analysis. For enterprises, The transfer of equity and the ups and downs of the stock market are indicators of their operating conditions, and can also provide companies with a large amount of information in a timely manner, which is helpful for their business decisions and improvement of business management.It can be seen that the stock circulation market plays an important role.

The method and form of transferring stocks for buying and selling is called the trading method, which is the basic link of stock circulation and trading.There are many types of trading methods in the modern stock circulation market, which can be divided into the following three categories from different perspectives:
1. Bargaining and bidding

From the difference between the buyer and the seller to determine the price, it can be divided into bargaining and bidding.Bargaining is a one-on-one meeting between the buyer and the seller, and a deal is reached through bargaining.It is a commonly used method in over-the-counter transactions.Generally, it is used when the stock cannot be listed on the market, the trading volume is small, confidentiality is required, or commissions are saved.Bidding buying and selling refers to a transaction in which both buyers and sellers are a group composed of several people, and both parties openly conduct two-way competition, that is, the transaction not only has bidding and asking price competition between buyers and sellers, but also exists within the buyer group and seller group. With fierce competition, the final transaction is between the buyer with the highest bid and the seller with the lowest asking price.In this two-way competition, the buyer can freely choose the seller, and the seller can also freely choose the buyer, which makes the transaction more fair and the resulting price is more reasonable.Auction trading is the main way of buying and selling stocks on the stock exchange.

2. Direct transactions and indirect transactions

According to the different ways to conclude the transaction, it can be divided into direct transaction and indirect transaction.The direct transaction is a direct negotiation between the buyer and the seller, and the stock is also cleared and delivered by the buyer and the seller, and no intermediary is involved in the entire transaction process.The vast majority of over-the-counter transactions are direct transactions.Indirect trading is a trading method in which the buyer and the seller do not meet and contact directly, but entrust an intermediary to buy and sell stocks.The broker system in the stock exchange is a typical indirect transaction.

3. Spot trading and futures trading

According to different delivery periods, it is divided into spot trading and futures trading.Spot trading refers to the delivery and liquidation procedures immediately after the stock transaction is completed, and the money and goods are cleared on the spot; the futures transaction is a trading method in which the delivery and liquidation is carried out after a certain period of time according to the price and quantity stipulated in the contract after the stock transaction.

Some people say that if the stock market is likened to a grassland, ordinary stockholders are sheep, those interest groups that try to prey on sheep are wolves, and the government is the shepherd.But don't think that the shepherd only protects the sheep. In fact, the shepherd also has to protect the wolf.Because if there are not enough wolves and sheep have no natural enemies, they will multiply too much, and too many sheep will destroy the vegetation of the grassland, and then destroy the entire grassland. After all, the government does not protect sheep or wolves, but protects the entire grassland. The ecological balance of the grassland.Because the shepherd does not take the protection of the sheep as his first goal, he will only be really anxious when the entire grassland may be prone to destruction.Such a metaphor seems to reveal the rationale for the operation of the stock market more clearly.

The real stock market is different in the eyes of every investor.On the surface, the stock market is always crowded and lively like a temple fair; but in fact, when you are in it, you will find that the stock market is full of different voices like a bird garden, but you don't know who is telling the truth.It is difficult to distinguish between true and false, which is the consistent impression of the stock market in the minds of stockholders.

Trap: The master was also fooled

In all kinds of stock markets, there are many traps lurking, and if you are not careful, you will be fooled by them.Even Graham, a famous investment guru, has experienced its power.

Graham realized all kinds of traps in the stock market in the early days, especially in the setback experience of the US stock market crash in the 20s.

In 1919, Grewim was 25 years old.A large neon sign was erected in Columbus Square near his home that year.In the night, "SAV" (Sawu) flashed first, and then "OLD" (Old) flashed, which indicated that Saguiold Company was going to grant production patents to branch companies in various states, and these branches The companies are about to go public one by one.

Sure enough, not long after, two Sauald companies went public one after another, and Graham watched the stock price rise steadily.At this time, there was news that Savoold, Pennsylvania would also be listed, but the management of the head office announced that it would change its previous plan - saying that this would be the last company to be listed, and that it would own shares outside New York and Ohio. production and management rights.

It means last chance.So Grae put in a $6 subscription.

What happened next was unexpected.Stocks fell across the board in Savoy Olde, Pennsylvania.But the transaction has yet to start.At the same time, upon receiving the news, all Sauold stocks fell across the board.Graham was completely bewildered as to what was going on.After a few months, the Savoold companies disappeared from the market as if they never existed.

At this time, Graham suddenly realized that he had no idea what kind of company Savold was.After a few investigations, he came to a sad conclusion: The only real thing in the Sauald incident was the neon sign that stood in Columbus Square and flashed the company's name.

It seems hard to imagine that Graham, who later became the "father of securities analysis", was so impulsive and confused when he was young.But it was these experiences and lessons that kept Graham vigilant about the stock market and became a master of securities investment step by step.

Tulips are also crazy: This is how the "bubble" is produced

Speaking of speculation, I have to mention the craziest speculation in history: the story of tulips.

The first famous speculative mania in history occurred in the Netherlands in the 17s. The object of speculation was not stocks, real estate, or Dutch oil paintings, but a flower—tulip. In 30, when the first carload of tulips arrived in Antwerp, Belgium from Constantinople, Turkey, this broad-leaved perennial bulbous herb was considered to have important value for "dissemination of knowledge and ornamental art".Soon, appreciating and cultivating tulips became a fashion, and they were gradually used as investment objects to trigger a wave of investment, and the price rose all the way.A tulip stem can be exchanged for a brand new carriage, two horses and a set of saddles.According to the "Travel of Blaineville", a young sailor was rewarded with a breakfast by a businessman for reporting the ship's news.The tulip speculator later discovered that a stem worth 1562 florins (the currency of Helan at the time) and named "Eternal Augustus" was missing from the shipment.When he hurriedly found the sailor to inquire, the young man was chewing "the thing he regarded as an onion" with great relish on the salted fish.The businessman jumped up and down in regret, but it was useless, and he lost 3000 florins.

In 1636, the stock exchanges in Amsterdam, Rotterdam and other places all opened tulip exchanges.The ups and downs of flower prices have created a large number of rich people, and every increase in flower prices has convinced more people that this road to wealth can be extended forever, and rich people from all over the world will go to the Netherlands regardless of the price. Acquire all tulips.Before a single flower came out of the ground, it changed hands several times at ever-increasing prices.People without money have to invest in tulips even if they mortgage real estate to borrow money.

I don't know from which day, some "smart people" began to exit.After this sign was noticed, people suddenly "woke up".The sell-off instantly turned into panic, and flower prices began to plummet.Overnight, the millionaires became beggars and many became homeless.Crazy tulips, crazy people, crazy investments.This can be described as the most classic speculative event in history.

Speculation refers to the behavior of taking advantage of information asymmetry and timing to gain profits in market transactions, especially those transactions that are willing to take risks and obtain price difference benefits in the market.Speculation focuses on price changes and rarely considers the actual value of the trading instrument.Most of the methods are buying cheap and selling expensive, fast in and fast out.Speculative behavior and investment behavior in the capital market are interdependent. Driven by speculative transactions, the market is more dynamic.

(End of this chapter)