Chong Sheng 1977Nian Cong Zhi Qing Kai Shi

In the first month of the year, as in previous years, we are still busy paying New Year greetings.

Network connections are accumulated day by day, and the number of people who want to pay New Year's greetings is also increasing day by day. This year, the number of people will stop on the twelfth day of the first lunar month. Just when he was about to take a breather, Wang Jiansen called and said he was coming to pay him New Year greetings.

It's a new thing for Wang Jiansen to come to the old bungalow to pay New Year's greetings. In previous years, he would gather at Lai Biao's place on a day when everyone was free, and they would say New Year's greetings to each other at the dinner table. What happened this year?

No matter what happens, since people are coming, we have to prepare for it.

Take out the dried fruit snacks that have been put away, put them on the plate, and soak the ingredients that need to be soaked in advance.

A busy job.

At 3:30 in the afternoon, Wang Jiansen came over. He was not alone. He was accompanied by his son Wang Dali.

In 2015, the stock market was like a flower cooking in flames, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high, rising to 5178 points. Myths about how to make a fortune from the stock market are spread in offices, restaurants, plazas, and even mobile phone film stalls. They pay fifteen yuan to attract customers to apply the film, and then sell it to friends for ten yuan a piece, leaving you free to continue talking to the next door. The blind man who tells fortunes talks about the stock market.

At that time, the national enthusiasm for stock trading was pushed to its highest climax, and myths were spread everywhere. My wife’s colleague’s brother made more than 800,000 yuan in the stock market. A friend of mine bought a stock that tripled. I Neighbor……

People always seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, and they also want to show off. When making up a story, they will extend from the people close to them and choose a protagonist who is neither far nor close. If it is too far, it will be hearsay, and if it is too close, there will be interests involved. It's easy to get burned.

In short, all kinds of true, false, somewhat false, half-true and half-false wealth stories are spreading, making everyone who has speculated in stocks or not speculated in stocks feel itchy. They used to be proud of the stock market, but now they are in hiding. The wild clouds and winds were also stirred up.

A bargain hunter who hides in the bathroom and gives people back rubs; others laugh at him for being too crazy, but he laughs at them because they can't see through it; a short-term stock god who wanders between the trash cans; a first-rate stockbroker who has been a door-to-door son-in-law for more than ten years. Trader; had a misunderstanding with the economic investigation, and went to Bawangzhuang in another country to settle the matter, etc.

The heroes of the past are back, and the stock market is about to rise again.

Big A-shares, heroic land, wind and cloud land, a leek field where you can pick up money as long as you are willing to bend down. This is the consensus of people with Alzheimer's disease, middle-aged dementia, and young people with dementia. They eat scrambled eggs with leeks, boxes of leeks, and grilled leeks. They borrow the power of superstition and fantasy to stare at the K-line on the screen and do it during the day. I had a nightmare, dreaming that I was forced to work and had to harvest hundreds of acres of leeks.

This is a carnival for stock investors and a gluttonous feast for capital. The capital allocation on and off the market is having a great time. A large amount of leveraged funds are pouring into the stock market. The leverage ranges from 1:1 to 1:8 It is said that the capital allocation at that time was as huge as 5 trillion, reaching one-tenth of the total circulating market value of the stock market.

As for the sources of funds, some were funds obtained from banks through umbrella trusts, some were private capital allocations, and some even borrowed money from P2P platforms. The prosperity of the stock market at that time also created the prosperity of P2P.

Many small investors who understand the simple truth of "If you don't manage your finances, the finances will ignore you" find that they can make more than ten percent profit in a month by stock trading. P2P platforms with "insider information" should be able to earn even more. , so they are very comfortable putting part of their money on the platform, euphemistically saying that eggs are not put in one basket.

Cows and bears have always been inseparable and inseparable. Where there are cows, bears will definitely appear, and vice versa. However, when the cows go out, the bears will not immediately follow them. Instead, they will first go to the cow's house to visit the cow's sister-in-law. .

The phenomenon of high leverage in economic development has long been taken seriously by the higher authorities. This time, the problem of high allocation of funds in the stock market has not escaped the glare. A move was quietly made to notify major securities firms to strictly investigate OTC allocations and suspend new ports for OTC allocations. Expand.

This action did not go unnoticed by the big capital that was causing trouble in the stock market. As soon as there was any disturbance, profit-making funds from all walks of life fled frantically, the bull market came to an abrupt end, and the index plummeted.

With this lesson, the superiors understood that deleveraging should no longer be subtle, but should be made clear in a big way. So, in May of the following year, the superiors clarified the key financial tasks for the next few years - three de-leveraging and one de-leverage. Reduce and supplement: cut overcapacity, reduce inventory, deleverage, reduce costs, and make up for shortcomings.

As one of the key points of destocking, the largest high-stock industry is real estate. The real estate industry itself is an industry with high leverage and high debt ratio. As Xu Mashi said, "One dollar of steel can do ten dollars of work."

High inventory means that real estate companies have insufficient liquid assets and excessive liquidity leverage, which is essentially two sides of high leverage. At that time, my country's real estate inventory was mainly concentrated in third- and fourth-tier cities. Due to the developed economy and continuous net inflow of population in first- and second-tier cities, the inventory problem was not serious.

As the backbone of the national economy, the real estate industry affects hundreds of upstream and downstream industries. High inventory is the sword of Damocles hanging over the national economy.

How to defuse bombs so that people can own homes and enjoy the benefits of rising housing prices depends on destocking. Under the constant stimulation of policies such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratios, easing of purchase and loan restrictions, and the monetization of housing estate renovations, cities across the country, especially third- and fourth-tier cities, have destocked more than expected, and people are queuing up to buy houses and grab them again.

Of course, the growth rate of housing prices is also very beautiful. The cumulative increase in 2016-2017 was more than 60%. Real estate has finally completed a shocking inventory reduction process, and this leverage has been transferred to residents like stars.

The guidance given to real estate companies from above is to deleverage, eliminate high debt ratios, and eliminate inventory. Some people listen to this advice, and some people go against the trend. With housing prices rising so much, wouldn’t it be short-sighted not to take this opportunity to launch more projects?

They don’t take away leverage, but they try to find ways to raise more funds. If they can’t get new land in prosperous places, they go to remote places where the sky is high and the emperor is far away, and they set up projects in this city or that resort bay. Their ambitions are lofty, regardless of whether the local area can support them. Digest, just look at the whole country and even abroad. Swish, swish, swish, as soon as the design drawing comes out, 歘昘昘, the magical skills of a clever woman who can cook without rice are performed all over the world.

The real estate company is like a gangster with explosives strapped to his body in the vast sea of ​​people, with his index finger bent and shaking slightly, shouting, "Come here!"

Who dares to go up?

The main responsibility for the explosion is not the responsibility of the gangsters. Although the political system determines that every ordinary person is the spiritual shareholder of the country. Everyone has a share in the good deeds and the bad deeds. But there are some things that can be done quietly and in public. It would be bad to say it out loud.

However, if you throw in the mouse trap again, the problems that need to be solved still need to be solved. Sooner or later, the board will be shot. There is a lot of knowledge in making decisions. You can still be alive and kicking with fifty big boards, but you can also die in hell with three big boards. " "Kidnapping" will not solve the problem at all, it will only delay it for a while.

There are people with strong heads, and naturally there are people who borrow donkeys from the slope to actively solve problems.

Just take Wang Jiansen. In the past few years, he was very high-spirited and had small goals to look at the world. He joined the wave of real estate companies to enter the world. Through domestic guarantees and external loans, he bought and bought all over the world. The arrogance of domestic rich people spending huge sums of money spread all over the world, and countless European and American people “Old Money” all exclaimed: “Boss, really boss, please accept my respect.”