City: Me, IQ 300

Chapter 91 A Person Faces Three Thousand Questions (Ask for Support, First Change)

At this time, Chen Fan even took a glass of water and drank it lightly, and after the title was given, Chen Fan looked at everyone in the audience very indifferently.

There are many people thinking, maybe this fifteen-year-old boy, will be nervous, afraid, entangled, etc., these are uncertain.

But again, as long as he survives, then the teenager really succeeds.

Someone in the audience has already begun to calculate the answer, Chen Fan said: “I think, these two minutes are enough for everyone to calculate the answer, this case is the most classic fable in game theory, also called a variant of stupid dwelling, right.” ”

Everyone nodded, as long as they have studied economics, they have actually heard this fable, and the earliest source of this story is very confusing to everyone, and the source is a very interesting experiment of two people.

It is also a matter of cheating and not cheating.

Everyone has studied the stories in textbooks, and now Chen Fan has given these, as if he is examining them.

Is this doubting our intelligence? We suspect that you look down on us, and we still have proof.

Chen Fan thought for a moment and continued: “This game theory, in fact, is quite interesting, that is, the thing of cheating and not cheating, this fable everyone has noticed, it takes place in a remote mountain village, but what if it happens in a city?” ”

“I think any game theory case needs to be added to the city’s plan.”

“If you don’t agree, then I don’t have to go on.”

Everyone nodded and affirmed, meaning Chen Fan to continue.

Chen Fan said: “If it is a city, then we need to consider environmental factors, surrounding factors, the first factor, the herd effect, when the first goat goes to drink water is fine, then the second goat has a fluke heart, will also go to drink water, the same, the third, the fourth, these are very similar to a common phenomenon among students, three people in the dormitory are in love, the proportion of the fourth person in love will be particularly high.” ”

Everyone understands this, and this is indeed introduced in psychology. 、

Chen Fan began to write the calculation formula on the blackboard.

“The breakdown of the balance between public knowledge and action is a process of reasoning and action. If her husband is unfaithful, she kills him; If there was no evidence that her husband was unfaithful, she believed him and did not kill him. This is a woman’s strategy.

On the first day after the old lady’s announcement, if only one man in the village was unfaithful, the man’s wife would know after the old lady’s announcement. For she would reason that if other men were unfaithful, she should have known in advance that since she did not know and at least one man was unfaithful, then the unfaithful man must be her husband. Therefore, if only one man in the village is unfaithful, the old lady announces it, and the man will be killed that day.

If two men in the village are unfaithful, the wives of both men will not suspect their husbands on the first day, because she knows that the husband of the other woman is unfaithful. But when she didn’t find out after the first day that the disloyal man had been killed, then she would have thought that two men must have been unfaithful, otherwise the unfaithful man she knew would have been killed by his wife that day. Since there are two men who are unfaithful, but the wives of these two unfaithful men think, she only knows one, then the other unfaithful man must be her husband! ……

Chen Fan wrote very slowly.

Everyone can actually see a rough idea.

But after Chen Fan continued to write, he came up with an interesting meaning.

“Why, choose the elderly? I think everyone actually has the answer. ”

“It’s old-fashioned, feudal.”

Someone said it, Chen Fan nodded and said: “Yes, it is old-fashioned feudalism, we don’t discuss the correctness of cheating here, the fable itself is very strange, because under the law, killing people needs to pay for their lives, I think, the interesting thing about this story is, don’t forget, men cheat, who is the person who cheats?” People in the village, right? It is impossible for a woman not to know. ”

“Well, there’s a lie in it.”

Originally, everyone could still understand the clumsy dwelling effect in the front, but after Chen Fan added this data, everyone gradually began to not understand.

In fact, 100 men in the village were unfaithful, so this reasoning would continue until the 99th day, that is, every woman did not suspect her husband for the first 99 days, and on the 100th day, every woman deduced with certainty that her husband was unfaithful, and a massacre occurred in the village, and all the men were killed by their wives.

Here, when the old lady announces the fact that “at least one man is unfaithful,” every woman is actually aware of this fact (and they know the rules of the village), and the old lady’s announcement of this fact does not seem to add to the women’s knowledge—about the infidelity of the men in the village. But why did the old lady’s announcement lead to the massacre of their husbands by the women of the village? This is because the old lady’s announcement changes the intellectual structure of the women in this group, and the fact that “at least one man is unfaithful” is knowledge for every woman, but not public knowledge, and the old lady’s announcement makes this fact public knowledge.

Chen Fan began to write formulas, algorithms.

“Public knowledge, is the traditional concept, but there are feelings and reason here, if I remember correctly, in the face of cheating, the proportion of forgiveness is still very large, of course, women’s rights or something, I will not evaluate, this is easy to be sprayed, I am too lazy to respond or justify anything.”

Everyone in the audience laughed, in the face of absolute male power, there are very few women’s rights.

Because none of the men here have ever touched women’s rights, because they are strong enough.

It seems that it is the poor who propose women’s rights.

Chen Fan continued to write the formula.

“If I assume that I add these external factors, then the problem becomes complicated, and in fact, people don’t want to complicate it, but think about how to use this problem, or expand the example.”

“The coefficient here is given by myself, everyone has doubts, I will say later, I will calculate the matter of cheating and murder, you continue to look down.” ，”

Chen Fan wrote the formula on the blackboard one by one, and finally got a 21% data.

The probability of cheating and homicide is 21 percent.

What was shocking was that Chen Fan gave a range, and the change area of this value would come to a maximum of 35.5%.

This is different from the 32 percent in economics, because if you follow the algorithm of game theory, the number of killings in the village may be 76 percent.

This is basically determined, given the definition of cheating, men cheat, women will kill their husbands.

But the reality is often very low, very low.

Chen Fan said: “I think, the answer I gave, everyone is a little unacceptable, but the truth is that if anyone has a question, ask at this time, no matter how deep, I won’t say.” ”

Is this kid still convinced that his statement is right?

Alas, someone should have thwarted his sharpness.

A man raised his hand and said: “Chen, I am from the WTO, I want to ask, if according to your inference, economics itself should consider humanities and emotional society, etc., then what if those women have been indoctrinated in the idea of polygamy since childhood.” ”

Everyone at the scene was stunned for a moment, and everyone looked at this man.

Chen Fan sighed and said: “I have said many times, if you don’t understand, don’t ask questions indiscriminately, I said very clearly, coefficients, external factors.” ”

The man’s face is red.

Chen Fan said: “Well, the idea you said, let’s assume that there are many countries in the world, there are indeed such things, this ratio, I also calculated, and I tell you, the proportion of these women is 0.42 percent, you add it to my formula, you get 33 percent, within the 35 percent I said.” ”

Groove, really fake?

The man quickly calculated that it was indeed right.

, this guy, all this is taken into account?

Nima’s.

The man sat down, feeling a little embarrassed.

Chen Fan said: “Economics, in fact, from mathematics, naturally needs mathematical calculation, any coefficient, the proportion you think, if there is data support, can be brought into the formula I gave, then the number obtained will be similar to my current answer.” ”

People started looking for data, validating.

Verification under big data one by one, looking at the final proportion is close.

Everyone’s backs started to tingle.

The accuracy, high is a little scary.

This accuracy makes people feel cold sweat on their backs.

If the accuracy is too high, it means that the new theory given by Chen Fan may be much higher than the proportion given by Nash equilibrium.

A drink?

And even more.

Thirty-two percent of mathematical workers is actually 32 percent of the point at which benefits are obtained, and to maintain this point, the rest of the examination of the gap between people is actually how to use the Nash equilibrium.

“Everyone knows the thirty-two percent point, but why are some people gods and some people civilians? I think that the factors involved in this are not the use of Nash equilibrium, but many people have subconsciously added some factors of reality, how much proportion is added, no one calculates, and everyone will not calculate these, I think, this is the answer you need. ”

Hahahaha.

Someone laughed madly and said: “Chen Fan, according to your statement, have you calculated how much risk Buffett makes when he buys a stock?” ”

“Or, Chen Fan, you have already calculated how much money can everyone make in investment and financial management itself?” Or, Chen Fan, according to your formula, you can easily make waves in the stock market, right? ”

The continuous questioning made the discussion quiet again.

Ma Yun said: “This is a mortal situation, it seems that this group of people really came prepared.” ”

“Yes, this is really ready, sure enough, people who play economics are crazy.”

“I really don’t know, how Chen Fan is going to explain such a problem.”

“Alas, it’s good to watch, I hope Chen Fan won’t let us down.”

Chen Fan moved his neck, the sound of clicking made the people at the scene a little puzzled, Chen Fan, what is this doing?

Chen Fan said: “What if I say, I must win the game? You won’t believe it either, will you? So it’s very simple, let’s operate, now you find a stock, and I will estimate the subsequent rise of this stock. ”

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