"Oh." I nodded, "what capital can wood have to instigate them to attack us?"

This is what I want to know most at present.

Lao Qin said, "commander in chief and I have repeatedly analyzed this matter and believe that there are roughly two possibilities. One is that wood gave them a lot of money and asked them to send troops to encircle and suppress us on this condition. These second-class Thai citizens in the mountainous areas of northern Thailand are very poor. They have always been very poor. The Thai government has allocated very little funds to them. The main sources of assistance are some non-governmental organizations in Taiwan, overseas Chinese associations and some institutions in the United States.

Now the United States has less aid, mainly because Americans want to use aid to control this armed force and work for them. They are unwilling to do it, so Americans don't give money. In the name of aid, wood asked them to suppress bandits and benefit the people, which is more dignified. If wood gave them enough money, it's hard to say whether it would impress them.

The second possibility is that wood released some intelligence and information to the other party through some ways or channels, making the other party think that we might attack them during the Spring Festival. Therefore, they may be ready to attack us or to prevent us from attacking them. Of course, once they make a wrong judgment, they may also attack first and give priority to preconceived ideas. "

I frowned.

Lao Qin continued: "the commander-in-chief and I also analyzed wood's real intention. It seems that there are two possibilities. One is that wood really wants to attack us with the help of the northern Thai people's self defense force. Money can make ghosts grind, not to mention those who are in need of economic assistance?

If this is possible, there will be three results. One is that the other party accepts wood's large amount of economic assistance, believes that we should first launch an attack on them, accept wood's conditions, and take the initiative to attack us in the name of a just division to eliminate harm to the people. This is the worst result.

The second result is that the other party also accepts wood's economic assistance and believes that we have the information to attack them, but we are only in strict readiness for defense and do not take the initiative to attack. We wait for us to attack first. Once we attack, we will attack us with all our strength. Such a result is beneficial to us, and wood can only be helpless.

The third result is that if the other party does not accept wood's conditions, it naturally does not accept wood's economic assistance, but at the same time, it still has doubts about the intelligence that we want to attack them, so in case of an accident, Chen Bing crossed the border. Such an outcome is most beneficial to us. Naturally, the war will not break out. "

I nodded: "well, which of the three results do you think is the most likely?"

"It's hard to be sure now. We should analyze it according to the new information we constantly get, so we should make all preparations and be ready for the possibility of the worst situation." Lao Qin said.

I said, "this is the first possibility you said. What about the second possibility?"

Lao Qin said: "the second possibility is that what wood is doing and what we know is a cover. He is making the illusion of confusing the real with the false. From Manila, the Philippines to Bangkok to the mountains of northern Thailand, he has been making the illusion. Even his sudden loss is deliberately made. In fact, he knows that we can find him again, He has no intention of making us unable to find him. He has no intention of making us really unable to find him.

The reason why he did this was to create the credibility of his subsequent actions and make us believe that he really wanted to use the North Thai self defense force to attack us. His presence in the northern Thai self defense force triggered the tense troop mobilization of the northern Thai self defense force, which is to attract our attention, make us deviate from the real direction in troop deployment, and make our judgment wrong. His real intention may be in other directions. The northern Thai self defense force is just a smoke bomb released by him. Of course, these are only possible, just analysis, or he may be a fake. "

I meditated and pondered Lao Qin's words.

"And ah Lai. Alai is now in the Kachin inhabited area in northern Myanmar. According to our intelligence personnel, he is not moving alone. He is surrounded by an unidentified mysterious person. We are currently inquiring about his identity. " Lao Qin said.

"What is Alai doing in the Kachin inhabited area? What do Kachin people do? " I said.

Lao Qin said, "the Kachin people live in the mountains of northern Myanmar, commonly known as lower Myanmar, and belong to the same ethnic group as the Jingpo nationality in China. In Myanmar, 70% of the country's population are ethnic Burmese. They live in the Myanmar plain with superior natural conditions. They have also become the rulers of central and lower Myanmar. They are rich in grain and swarms of fish and shrimp. They are the rulers of this rich land. A small number of Kachin people are excluded from the government cabinet with Myanmar as the core, so ethnic conflicts are often intensified.

Kachin soldiers are chieftain armed forces, commonly known as mountain soldiers. According to tribal tradition, all Kachin men are soldiers and have the obligation to fight for chieftains, which is equivalent to compulsory service. Depending on the size of the chieftain's territory, these mountain soldiers often have hundreds or thousands of people and various weapons, including spears, broadswords, bows and arrows, throwing guns and gunpowder guns.

In recent years, with the proliferation and development of arms smuggling in the golden triangle, the weapons of mountain soldiers have also changed. Those primitive cold weapons began to give way to AK47, American carbines, submachine guns and machine guns. The qualitative change of weapons reflects the progress of the times and society, although this slow progress is at the cost of death and war.

When the Kachin had weapons capital, they asked the Myanmar military government for autonomy. The government refused, so they sent troops to encircle and suppress, and the chieftain united to fight with the government army. The number of mountain soldiers is not dominant and their weapons are messy, but they are all natural good hunters with sharp eyes and strong body. They are good at climbing mountains, climbing and walking through the dense forest.

The Kachin soldiers walked barefoot in the thorns without shoes. They swing flexibly on the trees like monkeys, shoot and shoot mysteriously, or attack the government forces like leopards. When the government forces failed in their suppression, they had to compromise with the upper echelons of Kachin and agree to Kachin autonomy, on the condition that once there was a war, the mountain soldiers must obey the government's recruitment and assist the government forces in fighting. "

My heart moved: "did Alai contact the Kachin people? Do you want to unite them to attack us? Is the mysterious man with Alai from the government army? "

Lao Qin said: "this possibility cannot be ruled out. I am arranging someone to inquire about the identity of the mysterious man. If it is confirmed that it is from the government army, it is likely that they want to cooperate with the Kachin people.

The northwest of our jurisdiction is separated from the Kachin's jurisdiction by the Salween river. In the past, Kachin people often swam across the river to steal mature crops and raped mountain women. When the guard found that those who stole crops were generally driven away, but they were rude to the Kachin who raped women. Once they found them, they were killed immediately, which also killed several of them. Although they have never taken revenge, their superiors must have a problem with us. Maybe they will take the opportunity to take revenge this time.

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