I’m in Hollywood

In Omaha, Nebraska's capital, in a typical middle-class home in downtown Farnham Street, Warren Buffett hangs a phone call from New York, standing on the second floor of the studio window, Mei Yu Looking out of the window with a trace of irritability.

Today is Saturday. Although he did not go to work at Hathaway, Warren Buffett is still working.

On the side of the road, a sleek Cadillac stopped, dressed in a decent family of four, got out of the car, pointed at Buffett's house, and then excitedly took photos of each other.

Buffett used to see this kind of situation, and he always felt a little proud. He also said to his friends in a joke with no pride. He may be a few of the few in the United States who are still alive and some people take pictures in front of his house. Legendary character.

But today, Buffett, who saw this situation, did not have the slightest smug emotion. Thinking of what happened in the last few days, Buffett’s brows wrinkled again.

In January, Firefly Pictures suddenly uncharacteristically announced the annual financial report, and Buffett expected the intention of Firefly.

According to their own circumstances, the annual financial statistics for each year varies from time to time, some at the end of the year, and some after the tax season, some will fall in the fall after the peak season. Abc usually will be used as a full fiscal year to calculate financial information after the spring program is finished, but in order to counterattack, abc deliberately announced its own performance information in 1993.

However, although the media of the abc camp has tried its best to render the market share of abc as high as %, and repeatedly stressed the uncertainty of the profit of the film company, the huge profit of the firefly of 1.19 billion US dollars is full of luck, but the ordinary people even Including most shareholders only see the fact that the firefly's annual profit is more than twice as abundance. In order to attract attention, many media have also contributed to this trend, and the status of the firefly film industry is touted higher and higher. .

Since Firefly Pictures revealed that it is going to enter the TV industry, Buffett has not stopped researching the Firefly Films. He found the first few years of Eric's "Little Ghosts". The comedy films or horror films that rely on some swords to go slanting have obtained huge profits from the box office market in a short period of time. Although these films that create box office miracles prove the outstanding vision of the young people in film production, these are small and big. It is simply impossible for low-cost movies to be successful, especially after other studios have increased their investment in the same type of film. If the firefly film industry does not yield to the big studios, then the competitive advantage will become smaller and smaller. Perhaps like many independent film production companies that are just like the meteors, this miraculous film production company may also fall quickly. Go on.

But things are not going to this trajectory.

Since three years ago, Firefly Films has abandoned this small-scale production idea. And relying on Pixar Animation Studio and Digital Domain Special Effects Company, it has opened up two very stable profitable routes for 3D animated films and special effects movies, and the success of big production films such as Terminator 2, Tornado and Toy Story. Once and for all, the foundation of Firefly Films in Hollywood was established, and eventually Firefly Pictures swallowed Disney's established film company and became one of the top seven Hollywood film companies.

Buffett highly praises a theory called 'bridge toll station'. Simply put, if you have a 'bridge channel' from b to you, then you can rely on this 'bridge' to obtain stable and lucrative profits. Buffett’s investment decisions in the Washington Post, the Coca-Cola Company, and the abc television network were affected to some extent by this “bridge toll station” theory.

In the study of Firefly's film industry, Buffett found that Pixar Animation Studios and Digital Domain Special Effects, owned by Firefly Pictures, have this bridge toll station effect. Eric Williams made tens of millions of dollars in investments in the two companies before the release of Toy Story and Terminator 2. This is basically impossible for Hollywood studios, where most investment decisions are subject to the constraints of the board and shareholders.

Eric Williams’s huge investment in other companies over the years has created two unique 'fee bridges' that are unique to Firefly’s film industry. In the last three years, Firefly’s film industry has been enjoying this kind of independence. The huge dividend brought by this monopolistic 'toll bridge'.

From the North American and even the global market for the pursuit of cg special effects films and 3d animation, Firefly Pictures can maintain the technical advantages of the digital field and Pixar Animation Studio. In the next many years, the two bridges of the Firefly will have a charging bridge effect. Will not expire.

In contrast, abc, although abc TV network received a high profit of 520 million US dollars last year, but this TV network is still in crisis. Even a decade ago, the US television industry was firmly held by the three major TV networks, abc, nbc and cbs. At that time, the three major TV networks were not ideal when the business was not ideal. Can easily get 3% market share. But since the nationwide cable TV channel in the 1980s has risen rapidly, the days of the three major TV networks have been one day, and in the late 1980s, Murdoch from Australia created the Fox Public Television Network and successfully established itself in North America. Once again, the market position of the three major TV networks was shaken.

In this case, Buffett realized that the 'fee bridge' effect of abc TV network has become lower and lower. Therefore, after Firefly Pictures threw an olive branch to ABC, Buffett quickly moved to the business.

However, the Firefly Films are far more difficult than he imagined.

Buffett never felt that he was a very greedy person, so he first met for the first time. I gave the M&A offer that I thought was very kind, but the young man refused to think about it, and the proposed cash acquisition plan made Buffett realize that Eric didn’t really care how much the fireflies spent on the amount, he just I want to pay as little as possible for the shares of Firefly Pictures, and subsequent formal negotiations have proved this.

Since feeling the bridge toll station effect of abc TV network is dying, Buffett has already had the idea of ​​selling the abc shares in Berkshire Hathaway. Before the launch of Firefly, he started to shoot. Part of the stock. However, in the face of the insistence of Firefly Films in the negotiations, Buffett, who also has a reluctant side in his character, did not make too many concessions, and private contact ended in failure.

But Buffett is a very rational person, since he is optimistic about this business. Buffett will not give up easily, he also knows that the firefly will never change the acquisition target so easily. After Firefly Pictures publicly released the acquisition information, Buffett also promoted the acquisition negotiations between the two managements.

Then, especially in the last week. Buffett found that this matter has begun to get out of control.

The last time this sense of loss came out was when the Salomon Brothers suffered a crisis four years ago, and then Solomon, the king of Wall Street in the 1980s, fell in just a few years. Because Buffett took over the company during the investigation of the Solomon brothers, many people pushed the responsibility of Solomon's decline to him.

Thinking about how to deal with the latest things, Buffett saw a black car drove into the house, and his investment partner Charlie Munger, who was also the deputy chief of Berkshire Hathaway, got off the bus.

Charlie Munger looked up and saw the figure in front of the window. Waving wave to Buffett.

When I came to Buffett's studio, Charlie Munger and Buffett hugged and said: "The recent situation looks a bit bad, I think I should come over in person."

Buffett showed a light smile and told him that Esther Junks, who was actually with his girlfriend, prepared some cola for the two, and handed over some information over the table to Charlie Munger: Let's take a look."

Charlie Munger has his own business, and although he is also a shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway, his progress on the abc acquisition is not as much of a concern as Buffett.

It was not until four days ago that news of the merger of fireflies and abc was suddenly broken, and the Los Angeles Times confirmed that the two sides had suspended contact. Charlie Munger had to pay attention to it.

In the following few working days, due to the bad news, the abc stock price that had already risen to the high of 52 US dollars fell rapidly. In just three days, it fell by 9.6%, and the stock price returned to the level at the beginning of the year. Because of a series of rumors that have not even been confirmed, the other three major public television networks nbc, cbs and fox share prices have risen more than 5%.

Quickly browsing through the information in hand, Charlie Munger looked up and said: "From the current situation, if we do not agree to the deal. Other shareholders may initiate an extraordinary general meeting to vote?"

Buffett found a letter from the desk and handed it to Charlie Munger. The tone was a bit heavy. "It is not possible. This is the text message that David West, the president of State Street Global Fund, gave me. They are already planning to do this. It is."

Charlie Munger took a letter and glanced at it. Someone screamed angrily: "Is this idiot, don't they know which side they should stand on?"

Buffett did not mind the grievances of his friends. He sighed slightly and said: "If the United States only has a public network of abc, they will certainly stand with us. But unfortunately, Firefly is not only abc. This one choice. If it is not abc's operation is far better than the other two, maybe they have already let go at this time, this is why David West is so urgent, everyone can see that the public television network The business is shrinking, so they are reluctant to give up this high-volume opportunity, not to mention getting a share of the Firefly Films, a company that can achieve a US$1 annual profit, and no more than five in the entire federation."

Charlie Munger felt a little bit of Barford's tone and said with a smile: "But we are not bad at all, aren't we?"

The loss caused by the miraculous rise of the latecomer only stayed in Buffett’s mind for a few seconds. When he heard Charlie Mang’s words, Buffett quickly recovered his usual confident smile and said: “Of course, we It’s not bad at all.”

"Well, man," Charlie Munger reached over and patted Buffett's shoulder: "We're still going to talk about this thing now, do you have any good ideas?"

"There was one in the original," Buffett expertly flipped a piece of paper from his desk and handed it to Charlie Munger.

Charlie Munger looked down and found that it was a timetable for the film cut out from the newspaper, and several of the movies were followed by an asterisk.

"Save the Great Ryan, "The Lion King", "The Real Lie"," Charlie Munger looked at the names of the films and looked up and said: "The three films are the main films of the Firefly Film Summer. Question?"

Buffy features: "Of course. "Save the Ryan" is a war film, "Lion King" is a traditional hand-drawn animation, and "True Lies" is a very common big action movie, and the cost is very high. One hundred million U.S. dollars."

Charlie Munger is not very good at film. He knows that Buffett is also the same, but Buffett has done more work than him during this time, so he can only stop and listen patiently. .

Buffett briefly paused. When I think about my friends, I continue: "I called Warner's Robert Daley to consult this matter. Hollywood has not had a big war film like "Save the Ryan" for many years because of failure. The risk is very high, and the firefly's release strategy for "Lion King" is also very different from the traditional distribution method. This 2d hand-drawn animation will generally be shown at the end of the long-term screening, although there is no competitor of the same type in the summer file, but this kind of The very competitive schedule will greatly shorten the time of 2d animation. Finally, the "real lies", two summer-grade action films have failed at the same time, one of the protagonists is still "true lies" "The hero, Schwarzenegger. Now Hollywood is very cautious about this big production action project."

Charlie Munger remembered the information he just saw, saying: "You mean, Firefly Pictures has completely abandoned the cg special effects movies and 3D cartoons that they were better at in the past few years. This year is likely to be in these three films. Going to the top?"

Buffy features: "So, I think that if the negotiations can be dragged to the summer file, as long as the film of the Firefly Films summer file fails, then it will break the miracle of the investment in the firefly film industry. We can get back the initiative again. ""

Charlie Munger nodded in agreement, but he quickly applauded: "However, the situation is now. Fireflies will never give abc so much time, right?"

Buffett showed a faint smile, saying: "Yes, and. From the recent signs of frequent fireflies, I feel that if this month is not a deal, they may really want to let go."

"You started to sell abc stocks early last year. I think you definitely want to make this deal too, right?"

Faced with friends who have been together for many years. Buffett did not hide it, nodded honestly and said: "Yes."

Charlie Munger said: "What do you think is the upper limit of Eric Williams' offer? I think this data should not be difficult for you to guess?"

Buffett is best at data analysis, nodded: "The focus of the dispute is on the share swap, I think he can only sell up to 25% of the shares," said Buffett, and some annoyed: "If If David West is able to do more with this, the 3% trading plan that I proposed on Monday may be effective, and I will give up at most two percentage points."

"Or else," Charlie Munger knocked on the table and suggested: "You contact Tom, how about the three of us going to Los Angeles, maybe even the Oscar."

Buffett shook his head gently and said: "I don't think this will make the young man make any concessions. Now he has taken advantage."

"I really think that our three old guys have come out personally. The young man will definitely make some concessions if he is smart enough."

Buffett knows what his friends say. He and Charlie Munger and Tom Murphy have risen in the federal business for decades. There are countless tangible and intangible resources in their hands. Exchange, you can definitely get the real benefits.

"But these benefits will not fall on us in vain, gain in advance, and still have to pay in the future. I don't think Eric Williams will make us cheap."

Charlie Munger saw Warren Buffett say this, but he had promised in the tone, picked up the phone on Buffett’s desk and prepared to arrange a private jet. He said, “I’m more and more interested in that young man, huh, And the cliff house he built in Malibu, the last time he chatted with John Bonn, he said that the world would never find such a great location to build a private manor house, if Eric Williamsken shot, he is willing to pay $200 million to buy the sharp corner manor."

Although there has been no special pursuit of material life, Buffett has not concealed his true opinion. He nodded: "The villa is really good, although the actual value is certainly not as much as 200 million US dollars, but Eric Williams is sure. He will not sell it for $200 million, and he will not be short of money at all."

Charlie Munger dialed the phone and said a few words. He put down the microphone and said, "Haha, I almost forgot about it. Your richest man’s title was taken away by him just a year ago. Is it some? Lost?"

Buffett actually enjoyed the feeling of being in the limelight. Of course, I felt a little lost in my heart. However, I still highly professionally commented: "I shouldn’t have been mine. I had hidden data last year. I can still see it." to be continued.)