Investor That Can See The Future

Chapter 483

The global financial crisis that began with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers plunged the world into recession. The country that emerged as a relief pitcher at this time was China.

China achieves an economic growth rate of close to 10 percent every year, and has grown to become the world’s largest in both economic and trade scale, and is the world’s manufacturing factory and consumer market.

What if China collapses? Will the whole world be able to bear the shock?

James said as he hawked the pumpkin on the head of his wand.

“China’s crisis theory has been around for a long time.”

I nodded.

“I think it’s been more than 20 years.”

When the economic growth rate was high, they said they would fail because of the demand for democratization, and when the economic growth rate fell, they said they would fail because of lack of jobs.

It is similar to what is being said now.

Falling into the trap of a middle-income country, the population aging has begun, the environment is polluted, the polarization is serious, the regional gap is concerned, there is a bubble in the real estate, manipulating statistics, it will split into several countries, etc.

Can’t we just give 100 reasons that China’s economy will collapse if we leave a single collapser?

“Soros, he actually put it into action.”

George Soros, king of hedge funds.

About three years ago, he started short selling the yuan, believing that the Chinese economy would collapse. He had a history of overthrowing the Bank of England and causing the Asian financial crisis, showing strong confidence even at this time.

“The hard landing of the Chinese economy is inevitable. It is normal for Asian countries’ currencies to fall by 40 percent from now.’

Judging from economic indicators, the debt of Chinese companies was severe even at that time.

From an external point of view, if you let it collapse, the yuan will depreciate due to a decline in growth rate and capital outflow. Conversely, if the Chinese government wants to inject public funds to prevent insolvency, it must lower interest rates and print money. Again, this is a factor that depreciates the yuan.

James continued speaking as if recalling.

“With George Soros at the fore, Wall Street hedge funds rallied. Kyle Bass, Stanley Druckenmiller, Jacques Schreiber, David Einhorn, David Tepper and more. Famous investors on Wall Street who you might know by name sold all their big assets, including stocks, bonds, commodities and real estate, and rushed in with live ammunition.”

And he poured those live bullets into the Chinese foreign exchange market.

China even stepped up to the prime minister and directly criticized it.

‘Short-selling speculators are trying to make a profit by inducing panic! The Chinese economy is not weak enough to be destroyed by speculators.’

What was the result?

“George Soros lost.”

Chinese banks and corporations did not collapse, and the yuan remained intact.

Hedge funds that had been selling short had to step down before the losses were even bigger, and George Soros also suffered huge losses and lost his hands.

Why did this result come out?

Hedge fund CEOs, including George Soros, have an incomparable level of knowledge and sense.

Were they wrong?

George Soros’s thoughts and claims that the Chinese economy is at risk, based on various indicators, were common sense.

It’s just that China is a country where common sense doesn’t work.

China is the most unusual country in the world. As well as a population of 1.5 billion, they are choosing socialism politically and capitalism economically.

Even this is capitalism, but in reality it is a state-led, planned economy disguised as capitalism. Most of GDP comes from state-owned enterprises.

It is the state-owned bank that lends money to this state-owned enterprise. Therefore, unlike in other countries, even if a company goes bankrupt, the bank can wait long enough without collecting the money immediately.

Also, as President Zhang Pinghua said, the Chinese economy is a huge sea. You can overturn a pond, but it is difficult to overturn the sea.

Henry, who had been in deep thought for a while, opened his mouth.

“Even if the Rothschilds’ fortunes had grown steadily over the past 250 years, their influence would have continued to diminish. That’s why emerging countries have grown.”

sharp point of view.

Since the 20th century, the world’s wealth has multiplied tenfold. And more than half of them occurred in emerging countries.

No matter how large the Rothschilds may have had on the political and financial circles of the United States and Europe, their influence in emerging markets will be limited.

Henry continued.

“Unlike the past, the modern financial system is becoming increasingly complex. Keeping it under control is not easy. If you play with fire incorrectly, the fire may spread, and there is no law that says that a famine does not lead to a great famine.”

I remembered Grant Darrell Rothschild, whom I met at the mansion in Buckinghamshire.

If Rothschild could do whatever he set out to do, wouldn’t he need to reach out to me?

Is the cause of the financial crisis to extend their influence to China, so that they can maintain their position?

I remembered the case of Korea.

Korea, which received bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) due to the financial crisis, was forced to fully open its financial markets. Foreign capital was allowed to enter and exit freely in the stock, bond and foreign exchange markets, and restrictions on foreign capital shares of financial capital were abolished.

As a result, almost all commercial banks fell into the hands of foreign capital. Lone Star’s acquisition of Korea Exchange Bank is a prime example.

Meanwhile, while Chinese capital has swallowed up companies around the world, foreign investment in Chinese companies has been severely restricted.

Also, as in all countries, investment regulations in the financial sector are stronger.

said James.

“If the Chinese economy collapses, the U.S. will also be hit hard. But as long as they can swallow the Chinese financial market, the Rothschilds don’t care who gets hurt.”

Whether it’s long or short, the more everyone moves in one direction, the greater the initial investor’s profit.

Therefore, IBs, PEFs, hedge funds, etc. claim that their investments are in the right direction, and they want all investors to follow in their footsteps.

George Soros failed. This is because many investors believed and hoped that China would not collapse.

Grace showed strong confidence that she would never fail, but behind that lies a sense of urgency that she should never fail.

“Can the Rothschilds succeed?”

James replied.

“The situation is very different now than it was three years ago. China’s economic growth has slowed further, the asset bubble has deepened, and debt has grown even more. And unlike Soros, they have the power to raise interest rates.”

As Warren Boatt said, you can’t build something that nobody else has.

Fed Chairman McClay raised the benchmark rate, not because he was directed by Rothschild, but because he believed it was the right thing to do.

I didn’t say they had Ronald’s weaknesses.

But both of them would have noticed that the president is in a situation where he can’t get his hands on the key rate hike.

When interest rates rise, the value of money rises. When the dollar strengthens, the yuan weakens.

China could raise interest rates accordingly, but in the current situation, there is a high risk that an interest rate hike will accelerate the economic recession.

“We just need to give the signal that the Chinese economy is going to collapse. As long as we can give a clear signal, the world capital will do what the Rothschilds will do without ordering.”

Money is the most powerful weapon that can move everyone. Once there is certainty, big banks and hedge funds will join the attack in unison.

You might think that it’s a Chinese thing anyway, so it’s okay to cross the river and be disrespectful, but in reality, it’s not.

Strictly speaking, it is not a fire across the river, but a fire in a large house right next to it. Of course, the fire will spread in all directions.

“It is not just a Chinese problem. The moment China passes over, ASEAN and Central Asian countries will pass one after another.”

I nodded heavily.

“It may include Korea.”

The country that has been the biggest beneficiary of China’s growth so far is Korea. Even now, China is Korea’s largest trading partner, accounting for a third of its exports.

There are a lot of sayings on the Internet that they wish China would collapse, but if China does collapse, Korea is the country that will suffer the most.

“Korea is Korea, but there are other countries that are really dangerous.”

“Which country are you from?”

“Isn’t there a country that depends on China for all its trade?”

There was a country that immediately came to my mind without thinking for a long time.

I frowned and muttered.

“North Korea.”

The collapse of the Chinese economy is fatal for North Korea, which is just starting to develop its economy. If the crisis intensifies, North Korea will lock the door it had been struggling to open again and cry out for self-reliance. If another provocation is made to stabilize the system, the geopolitical crisis could escalate.

This, too, will return another damage to the Korean economy.

“But this is a really serious case. If we work together to prevent the crisis from escalating before that, the outcome can be different.”

I said muttering.

“There will be a financial crisis. You have to prepare accordingly.”

Henry’s expression hardened at my words.

“Are you sure?”

“Yes.”

Not because he believed Grace, but because he had seen his foresight.

The global financial crisis that occurred in 2008 was the biggest crisis that occurred since the emergence of capitalism. However, mankind overcame that crisis, and the world enjoyed a boom again.

So what about the next crisis?

What happens after everything falls apart?

* * *

After finishing my schedule in the US, I returned to Korea with Henry.

I wanted to meet Ronald, but it won’t help much if I go to the White House right now. There are many watching eyes, so it would be better not to contact each other for a while.

When Taek-gyu heard my story, his eyes widened.

“Are you going to have a financial crisis? Aren’t you crazy?”

“That’s it.”

“Isn’t it enough to eat for 250 years?”

“It looks like they want to eat 250 more in the future.”(Read more @ wuxiax.com)

There is no end to man’s desires. In particular, the more they have, the less likely they are to let go of what they have in their hands.

I remember meeting Grace. What she cares about most is her family, and she will do anything for her.

“If you see foreknowledge, does this have to happen?”

“Perhaps so.”

What will happen is about to happen.

“Aren’t you supposed to tell your sister?”

“Henry must have already told you. He must be taking countermeasures at the headquarters level.”

Taek-gyu said in a strange way.

“Did shearing really exist?”

First, it lends capital to emerging countries to support economic growth. After that, he raises interest rates, collects loans, goes bankrupt, and then sweeps away badly priced assets.

Then, it restores the economy, waits for the asset value to rise, and repeats the same thing.

It refers to the predatory behavior of speculative capital, such as when sheep are well fed and then sheared periodically.

If this were true, it wouldn’t be as simple as it sounds, but would unfold in a much more complex and subtle way.

Because the sheep will not stand still while shearing. Which sheep would want to be deprived of its hard-grown fur?

“Then what should we do?”

“First, you have to prepare for the shock.”

OTK Company’s main focus is automobiles and batteries. In terms of households, automobiles are the second largest asset after houses, and in terms of countries, they are the most traded item.

When the financial crisis comes, people will be reluctant to buy a new car. The transition to electric vehicles will be delayed, and battery sales will also decrease.

If the crisis gets bigger, it is highly likely that the investment you are making now gets caught. The factories we are building now, the Saemangeum development, the inter-Korean economic cooperation, everything will be a problem.

* * *

A gloomy outlook and pessimism poured in.

The aftermath of the rate hike continued. Emerging countries raised interest rates one after another, raising concerns about a recession and the collapse of the asset bubble.

The market reacted sensitively to even the smallest bad news, and even those who had little interest in the economy could feel the serious mood.

Although the real economy has not yet been hit directly, the financial market has rapidly subsided.

The stock price, which was expected to rebound as low-priced purchases came in, sank again, and the buying trend disappeared and real estate transactions froze.

Companies with year-end settlement ahead were terrified that the exchange rate would rise further.

Even though Christmas was approaching, it didn’t feel like Christmas at all. The faces of the people who were smiling were full of unknown anxiety.

before the sun goes down.

Again, bad news hit the financial markets.