Iron Cross

"Our strategic goal on the Eastern Front?" Hoffman said with a laugh at the base camp meeting, "There is just no goal!"

Looking at the confused expressions of everyone in the audience, Hoffman smiled even more: "Of course I'm lying to you! In fact, my goal is very clear, or in other words, the goal at this stage is compared with the beginning of 'Barbarossa' Major changes have taken place. I am no longer obsessed with the gains and losses of one city or one place, but have a longer-term view - the war against the Soviet Union is a long-term war, and victory is not determined by which city is captured or which character is defeated. Realized, I wonder if you have watched "Total War" recently?"

Several trusted generals nodded one by one to indicate that they had read it again, but looking at their overwhelmed expressions, Hoffman knew that they had not read it to their heart.

"If you understand "Total War", you can well understand what I am going to say next." Hoffman began to brainwash his subordinates. "Can occupying Moscow force the Russians to surrender? Obviously not, they will go further. Can retreating to the east of the Ural Mountains and continuing to resist force the Russians to surrender? Obviously not. Without this leader, the Bolsheviks can immediately choose a dozen leaders to lead the war and occupy the enemy's important resources. Can the industrial zone force the Russians to surrender? It seems possible, but don't forget that Americans are transfusing blood to them. A steady stream of supplies and equipment is being sent to the Russians from the American continent. We have destroyed one tank and another. Tanks, if you take down one plane, maybe the Americans can build two. There is only one thing that the Americans cannot and cannot give to the Russians, and the Russians themselves cannot increase their production by leaps and bounds. Do you know what it is?”

"What is it?" Everyone was thinking.

"They are people! To be more precise, they are men of suitable age who can serve." Hoffman took out a pile of forms. These were the population data forms he asked his secretaries to collect. The data showed:

In June 1941, Russia's population was approximately 180 million, and the German national population was approximately 800 million. The ratio between us and the enemy was 2.25:1; excluding the populations of the three Baltic countries, Ukraine, and currently occupied lands, Russia's estimated population 1.35 billion, the ratio between us and the enemy is about 1.7:1. According to demographic data, the total number of service-age men aged 18-35 accounts for about 15-17% of the total population. Without taking into account other factors such as disability, intelligence, disease, etc., the upper limit is estimated that Russia's overall mobilizable troops are about 23 million. At the same time, 1.5 million more people can be added to the service every year. Germany can mobilize 13.6 million troops overall, and 900,000 new people can be added to the service every year.

"After more than a year of war from 1941 to 1942, we wiped out 5 million Russian troops, and our own losses were about 1.2 million. Comprehensive calculation, the current potential mobilization capacity of the enemy and ourselves is about 19.5 million: 13.4 million. If we wipe out every year for the next three years Stalin has about 4 million troops while limiting his own losses to about 1 million. What do you think will happen?" Hoffman pointed to the prediction at the end of the table, "By 1945, Russia's potential total mobilization strength will be less than 12 million, and Our total potential mobilization force is about 13 million. Even if the Russians can extend the service age to 45, the number of people they can mobilize will not be much more."

The two chiefs of general staff, Marshal Keitel and General Zeitzler, stood up in surprise. They really couldn't imagine that the war would last so long and so many people would die in Germany. When they think of the terrible prospect of 3 million casualties and the elimination of 12 million Russians in the next three years, their fragile little hearts can't bear it, and they always feel that the Führer is crazy.

"Gentlemen, don't look at me with such wide eyes. What I'm talking about is a theoretical state. This cannot be the case." Hoffman reassured the two of them. Historically, the number of deaths in Germany in the next three years was more than 3 million. But now no one believes him when he says it. He could only comfort these two frightened subordinates: "Someone needs to work in the factory, someone needs to cultivate the farmland, and someone needs to maintain domestic order and government institutions. Although a large number of women participate in the work to replace men's jobs, these potential The mobilization of the population can only involve at most half. It is impossible to have sufficient supplies and equipment to accommodate such a huge force. Stalin would have conquered the world long ago with 20 million troops. "

The faces of the two chiefs of staff turned white and finally looked better. Keitel said: "Führer, your conclusion shocked us. I never thought that the prospect of war could be analyzed in this way."

"In fact, it's not that scary. If Stalin's 4 million troops are really wiped out every year, he won't be able to hold on for two years, not to mention three years - new troops are constantly being formed and being wiped out by us, and combat effectiveness and cohesion will never be cultivated. Then the quality of the service population deteriorated, and morale became lower and lower. In the end, they surrendered without having to fight the enemy. "At the end of World War II in real historical time and space, the Soviet Union had almost all the men of the best age group born between 1915 and 1925. , the survival rate is very low.

"It's true." Zeitzler nodded, "This is what happened to many of the Russian soldiers we captured during the summer campaign. Compared with when the war began, their fighting will and combat effectiveness dropped very quickly. They had no ability at all. They have received the necessary training, and regardless of whether they are criminals or mentally ill, they are just stuffed with rifles by political commissars and come to resist our attack. These farmers who have just learned to hold guns have no fighting ability. "

"This conclusion has been confirmed in the last war..." Hoffman gave an example. "In the last war, our country's population was larger than either of Britain and France but less than the two countries combined. During the four-year war, the population of both the enemy and ours was The exchange ratio was unequal. We achieved a kill rate that far exceeded the enemy's, both in relative and absolute terms. The empire itself was not invaded much and was almost intact, while northern France was reduced to a scorched earth by us. The population loss exceeded 10% of the total population - this is why Britain and France did not dare to attack us before 1939. Although their troops, equipment, and resources seemed to be more, their people were afraid of being beaten, 20 Too many adult men died 20 years ago, and these will be the mainstream class of society 20 years later.”

Others don't quite agree with this conclusion. According to the Führer's own theoretical analysis, it shouldn't be Germany's turn to surrender in World War I... Everyone thinks it's good to listen to the theory of population war.

Looking at the disapproving look below, Hoffman had to raise his voice: "Our weakness lies in resources. If resources were not exhausted in the later stages of World War I and were stabbed in the back by the Jews, as long as we continued to fight for another four years based on the original battle loss ratio , who do you think will be unable to hold on? The first one is definitely not us! In fact, Russia could not hold on in 1917, because their casualty ratio was higher, and Russia had support from Britain and France at that time, and its resources were far from exhausted. To the point of exhaustion. In the final analysis, "Total War" clearly states: War is a contest of the overall national strength of both sides. The first is physical factors, including economic capabilities and resources; the second is human factors. . To deal with the Russians, we must work on the second factor, so we must implement new policies in the war against the Soviet Union.”

"New policy?" There was a lot of discussion below. There have been rumors that Stalin was trying to sue for peace. I wonder if the head of state is tempted?

Zeitzler poked Marshal Keitel next to him and whispered a few words in his ear, hinting him to ask this question. The latter shook his head and expressed that he did not want to get into trouble with the Führer, and said, "If you want to ask, I am Don't get scolded", but he couldn't resist Zeitzler's repeated persuasion and the attention of a group of colleagues in the base camp. In addition, he was also very concerned about this issue, so his attitude wavered.

Hoffman saw their little actions and asked displeasedly: "Keitel, are you listening to me? What are you still discussing in private?"

Seeing that the Führer was unhappy, Keitel could only stand up and stammered about the topic.

"Negotiation?" Hoffman's face dropped, and his voice raised an octave, "Is it your idea? Or whose idea is it?"

Everyone felt that the atmosphere at the venue had solidified.

"No, no!" Keitel cried sadly, his head hanging down, feeling cold sweat on his back. He knew that he would definitely be scolded for asking this matter. He hated that his position was not firm enough. If he had persisted for a while, he would have been persuaded by these people. Just pretend you didn't hear it, but now you can only reluctantly explain, "Because we have adopted the policy of contraction and rest on the Eastern Front, many senior generals, especially those at the group army group level, are very concerned about this, and they cannot listen directly to the head of state. At the same time, various rumors are spreading, and I hope that there will be further clear instructions. I firmly advocate fighting the Bolsheviks to the end!”

"It is not impossible to talk about peace talks. Some time ago, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs conveyed the intention of Bulgarian Tsar Boris III, saying that the Russians had the idea of ​​​​negotiating peace, and asked me if I could talk to them. I said you can go and listen to their opinions." Surprisingly As everyone expected, the head of state did not get angry, but said this calmly, "Wars are always peaceful in the end, especially wars between big countries. Didn't the French negotiate peace with us? The conditions we gave them were better than The conditions the French gave us were much more generous. I never thought about Germany occupying or dominating the whole world. That was not fantasy but arrogance. We could just fight for a suitable living space for the German nation, but the idea of ​​​​negotiating peace was easy. The terms of peace with the Russians were difficult."

Everyone was confused. Is it true that the head of state had had secret contact with Stalin as rumored by the outside world?