Mediterranean hegemon

After the successful issuance of United Group's convertible bonds, it further stimulated the market's nerves. The Dow Jones Index roared past the 400-point mark. Since the entire convertible bond actually expanded the supply of the stock market, Contini also initially had He was a little worried, but later found that the fanaticism was gone, and he felt relieved.

After the convertible bonds came to an end, the margin allocated by United Bank for the convertible bonds could be withdrawn and used. In just one week from August to 7th, Livermore added an additional short-selling position worth US$400 million, and the stocks distributed were all They are the most prestigious and most traded blue-chip stocks in the market: American Radio, General Motors, General Electric, American Telegraph and Telephone, etc. Therefore, these stocks are large in size and are relatively easy to establish short selling positions, which are suitable for rapid initial position building.

So far, United Group has held short positions of 800 million U.S. dollars, long positions of nearly 500 million U.S. dollars, and short positions of 300 million U.S. dollars. It has successfully switched from long position to short position, but if the United Group itself holds U.S. dollars in U.S. medicine and U.S. oil Taking into account the shares of , United Bank and United Motorcycle, these holdings are worth more than 400 million US dollars, and United Group is still in a long position.

Contini already knew that the Dow Jones was not far from its highest point, so he hoped that Livermore would further speed up the pace; at the same time, he asked Union Bank to start to speed up the shrinkage of its accounts: all due credit will no longer be re-lended, and the acceptances received will be All the bills of exchange were released for discounting and no new acceptance bills were accepted. At the same time, they also took advantage of the favorable conditions to conduct gold transactions. By August 2, another $200 million worth of gold was transported away through the replacement of Italian Navy warships.

After traveling through time, it was not that Contini had never thought about the legendary amount of gold under the Indian temple, but after careful calculation, he burst into laughter, because the pile of gold under the Indian temple was only more than 300 tons, although it was also a It was a huge number, but because the price of gold was not high at this time, an ounce of gold sold for less than 20 US dollars in the New York market. Even by the time the Bretton Woods system was established at the end of World War II, the price of gold was only 35 US dollars an ounce. It is almost equivalent to the level of US dollars per gram (troy ounce = 3.03478 grams), and more than 00 tons of gold is less than US$100 million.

If he wants to rob this temple, it will cost a lot of money just to prepare the fleet, personnel, weapons, and all aspects of management and cover. India is a British private territory. Except for limited treaty ports, other places are open to foreigners. It is closed, and it is easy for a few people to sneak in without anyone noticing. It would take a large group of people and a transport team to sneak in, unless the British are all blind. Putting on such a big show, if in the end you only risk falling out with the British just to make a little money, then you might as well not become a time traveler and focus more on economic means, why use violence and robbery?

For example, you can place an order to short silver right now.

Gold is the currency standard and final reserve. Although it will also fall, all countries will ban gold exports by then. So if you don’t move it now, you will have no chance to move it in the future. However, except for China and a few other countries that use it as the currency standard, silver is essentially just An industrial metal with little use, it can be bought, sold and exported at will, so Contini adopted a two-pronged strategy and started placing short orders on silver in the London market. Within 3 days, he placed 1 million orders (each representing 000 ounces). , the average selling price is 59 cents per ounce, which translates into only 590 US dollars per lot, and 1 million contracts is nearly 100 million US dollars. This is of course a big number, and it has directly reduced the price of silver from 59 cents to less than 59 cents per ounce. 54 cents, but because the London market is the largest silver trading market with a leverage of up to 20 times, the actual margin is less than 50 million US dollars; in addition to silver, crude oil and copper have set up a large number of short orders.

Contini's crude oil short position is particularly large, because he can predict that after the financial market collapses, his open purchases of US dollars will encounter endless abandonment, so he can now sell part of it himself, which is equivalent to what he has done in the market. The output of the two major oil fields under its control has been locked in at a price of nearly US$.4/barrel, and it can be resold in US dollars in the future. This level of harvest is also flattering.

On August 24, as the stock market entered its third week, Livermore's short positions exceeded US$300 million. As the stock market continued to rise steadily and exceeded the 420-point position of the Dow Jones, these short positions amounted to nearly 80 million. However, Contini didn't care about the floating loss of the U.S. dollar and instructed himself to sell short. This time it was his turn to build a position for those small-capitalization stocks.

While building the position, Contini's speech to the public once again took the lead: "I predict that the stock market may face a decline in the future. This is definitely not in line with the wishes of the majority of investors, but it may be in line with the expectations of the Federal Reserve. They have been doing this for the past two years." I hope to push down the bullish trend in the stock market, but they have not been able to succeed. They may succeed this time. However, I want to remind you that this time it may last for a long time, or it may simply start a bear market. Curtain, I hope you can stay vigilant and don’t let your hard-earned money be wasted by stupid policies. No one will sympathize with you then!”

This news shocked many people. A reporter asked on the spot: "Are you not optimistic about future generations?"

Contini nodded: "I have always emphasized that the U.S. stock market will face a decline in the future. I have said this since March. Depending on when, where and in what form it breaks out, the strong growth of the U.S. economy can be maintained for some time. , but I don’t think the recent signs will last long. Don’t you think the prices of agricultural products have been sluggish recently?”

Everyone looked at each other in confusion, and then nodded, as if there was indeed such a sign. Shouldn't this be a normal phenomenon before the harvest season?

"I don't think so. This year, the industrial index has risen, and the agricultural product index should follow the rise instead of consolidation. Now this sluggishness is a sign of a decline. Why not just fall? Because President Hoover enacted the Agricultural Product Market Act to try to eliminate excess in order to maintain prices. Although this policy is difficult to achieve his starting point, it is indeed very helpful. This can prevent farmers from going bankrupt on a large scale, because they bet on the future market and borrowed a lot of money, but now the price has not risen, and the interest rate is so high, they will be completely unprofitable and even bear a heavy burden. This policy-making starting point is truly for the welfare of the people..."

Contini used this approach of praising Hoover and stepping on the Federal Reserve to strongly declare that "there will be a big drop waiting for us..."

Everyone expressed doubts: Although the president's words are very convincing, and his judgment has been proven to be in line with market trends in the past, he is not a god after all. If he says there will be a big drop now, will it really fall?

The next day, the Federal Reserve had not yet responded, and other Wall Street commentators finally found an opportunity to fire at Contini. The title used by the New York Times reporter was very interesting: "74 famous Wall Street stock commentators and analysts pointed out: This time the president's judgment was wrong!" 》

When someone asked Contini what he thought of the report, Contini shrugged indifferently: "Yes, I said there would be a big drop, and it may happen by the end of this year. I hope the market and time will prove me wrong, because if I am right, the prosperity you are currently witnessing will be strangled... In addition, there is another news to tell you. The situation of my inspection in the United States is basically the same. After handling some economic affairs, I will go home."

"Can you conveniently disclose what economic affairs are?"

"It's okay to tell you. I am selling my personal account. At the same time, I let my assistant observe the market to see if there are any stocks with no performance support but inflated stock prices. I will short them... If I sing short words but go long, wouldn't this become a hypocritical hypocrite?"

"Uh... your statement..." The reporter finally came back to his senses, "Are you serious?"

"Of course, do you think I have ever joked?" Contini smiled, "I really haven't. I am a person who is highly responsible for my work and career. I basically don't talk nonsense. . "

"Can you tell me how many stocks you shorted?"

"You might as well guess how many positions are worthy of my wealth?" Contini laughed, "It doesn't matter if I lose, just think of it as my return to American investors. I sell stocks with a charitable mentality. I will leave around September 5-20. I am personally very satisfied with the effectiveness and fruitful results of this visit."

The reporter tried hard to find out which stocks Contini shorted and how much the position was, but Contini evaded the question with the excuse of "commercial confidentiality" and said that he had a professional investment consultant. The specific details are currently unknown. The author could only publish the article with the title "The President Turning to Shorts": ... The president further warned the market and vowed that there would be a big drop. He was ready to abandon all his personal positions and turn to short selling. Although he did not disclose the specific target stocks and position size, judging from the president's style and strength, we believe that it will not be less than US$100 million... Whether this is a brilliant judgment or a misjudgment remains to be further tested by the market.

Poverty limited the reporter's imagination. He had no idea that the president had established a short position of more than $2 billion, all of which were held through the United Trust. Now, even if the value of the shares owned by the United Group is deducted, the entire group has turned to short positions without a doubt.

This news caused a wave of ripples in the market. The market fell for a time, but eventually it stubbornly recovered. Stock critics began to laugh at Contini's judgment. On August 3, the Dow Jones Index broke through 449 points and began to run towards the end. Livermore quietly expanded his short position to $2.4 billion.

At this time, an unexpected episode interrupted Contini's deployment...