Mediterranean hegemon

Due to the delay of the Italian telegram, Contini did not go downstairs to meet the reporters and representatives who had been waiting for a long time until a little after 9 o'clock, but he still moved them to tears - they had all planned that the president would not show up until 11 o'clock, but they did not expect that he would show up at 9 o'clock.

"I know that you all want to ask many questions here, but the press conference will be held tomorrow, and I still have a lot of things to deal with, so I can only take 30 minutes to answer your most urgent questions..." Contini smiled, "The lobby manager said that the questions have been collected and written on the slips?"

"Yes, President, during the period of waiting just now, we have selected the ten most urgent questions through democratic voting, and arranged them in order of the number of votes..."

"Very good, then I will answer them according to the questions."

"The first question that everyone is most concerned about is how to view tomorrow's stock market and the future trend of the stock market." Contini smiled, "Actually, there are two questions here, the first one is about the short term, and the second one is about the medium and long term. In the short term, since the exchange has launched new measures, the president and business leaders have also made speeches and stabilized the morale, so I think it can be stabilized for the time being; There will be a big problem in the long run - this problem will be very strange. After a period of time, there will be polarization. Those stocks that were heavily hyped in the early stage will fall into the abyss, while those companies with certain strength and foundation will get good support. But there is one thing I want to say. If the Federal Reserve does not adjust its monetary policy, it is impossible for the stock market to go bullish as a whole. "

Everyone fell into deep thought. The president's words have made it very clear. In the short term, it will be stable, and in the long term, it will fall. However, in the future, the rise and fall will not be together. It is not an exaggeration to call it a structural bull market...

"The second question is, what do you think of the newly introduced measures?"

"The actual effectiveness of these measures needs to be tested by the market, but one thing is certain. Administration cannot replace the market itself. No one can manipulate the stock market, and the government is no exception. I think the stock market is a barometer of the economy. Sometimes the stock market runs faster than the economy. , and sometimes it runs slower than the economy, but in any case, the stock market cannot exist without the economy. Do you think there are any hidden worries behind the prosperity of the US economy for so many years? I think there are..."

"The third question, there is a nursery rhyme popular in New York recently: Mellon blew the whistle, Hoover rang the bell. Wall Street sent a signal, and the United States rushed to hell! What do you think?" Seeing this question, Contini laughed, "The person who wrote this nursery rhyme obviously has great doubts about the government and the future market. In fact, the stock market and the economy are composed of very complex reasons, which cannot be solved by the decision of one or two national leaders. Let me give you a very simple example. The American middle class suffered a lot in this stock market crash. Even if they don't lose everything or go bankrupt directly, they will tighten their belts in the next few years, reduce their demand for luxury goods and fashion products, and cut all unnecessary commodity consumption- —This will lead to export obstruction and huge output loss of the fashion industry in Italy and France, indirectly affecting their enterprises and industries; by the same token, the middle class who originally planned to buy new houses and new cars will also postpone consumption, which will lead to changes in a series of industries, and the US economy will enter a new pattern. As for what this pattern is like? Sorry, I don’t understand it now...”

“The fourth question, what solutions do you have for solving the US economic difficulties?” Contini shook his head, “I think there are two problems in the United States. First, the United States is a free market economy, but now relevant institutions and policies are increasing their interference, which destroys the internal logic, and this interference cannot be implemented consistently. Once a person is replaced, it will be replaced immediately, which will be unstable in terms of policy or situation; second, some problems must exist, and if you want to solve them all, you have to change the system - but this is impossible.

The simplest problem is the unemployment rate. All US presidents are elected by the people, so they pay special attention to the unemployment rate indicator, but what I want to say is that the price of US labor is the most expensive in the world. If you want to achieve full employment, you either have to lower the general wage standard or the company will suffer a large loss, both of which are unacceptable to others. In the final analysis, in such a society where the global economy is closely related, all production factors are flowing freely. The material cost of producing a towel is similar, but the labor cost is very different, and the price is also high or low. Without special instructions, can consumers distinguish that this towel is produced by American workers? If you want to protect American jobs, you have to use high tariffs - well, the United States uses high tariffs, so will Europe? That is a trade war.

If you want to solve the unemployment problem, you must allow the labor force to move freely, and the employment difficulties in the United States will be transferred to other countries - but is this possible? Every country is trying to protect its own job market. Besides, the United States not only does not emigrate, but also continuously absorbs immigrants. On the one hand, it has a large population, and on the other hand, it is tight on jobs - the unemployment rate is a natural existence to balance these two contradictions, how can it be solved? "

On this issue, Contini obviously lied. He saw clearly that the ultimate problem in the United States is the contradiction between the limited paying ability of the people and the ever-expanding production capacity, but it is not easy to solve this problem. Improving the paying ability of working people means reducing the profits of oligarchs, tycoons and the government. Should we protect the former or the latter? The answer is self-evident; as for proactively reducing production capacity? Who is willing to do this kind of thing, watching others get rich while being unable to do anything beside them, then they must rush in and do it together. Repeated construction means repeated construction. There is no repeated construction in the planned economy, but the planned economy brings more problems. Shortage - Only shortage is the best criterion to prove that there is no duplication of construction.

He answered all ten questions in one go, and also responded to rumors that Union Bank was preparing to repay the Federal Reserve loan in advance, but he said it tactfully: customers said they would return it in advance, and if they returned it, Union Bank would definitely do the same in advance. Return and ensure the stability of the U.S. financial system is our unshirkable responsibility...

At 10:45, he returned to the rest area exhausted and saw a call back from Italy: Seeing that Mussolini actually pulled the Caracciolo over, he suddenly felt that the leader was still very clear-headed sometimes. I know what I want in the United States. The 305mm tube of the Doria is still not thick enough. The 381mm drug cannon on the Caracciolo class is the way to go.

Stimulated by the delayed opening of the market and many positive news, the stock market on Tuesday finally started to stagger. Although there was a lot of selling at the opening - this was a sign of some frightened birds taking the initiative to reduce their positions. However, the stabilization fund and United Trust reached a tacit understanding and stabilized the market. As for the stock price of blue chips, they don't care at all how much the small tickets have fallen, so the stock market on Tuesday was extremely entertaining. The overall points barely climbed from 392 points to 398 points, and once stood at 300 points, but after careful observation, You will find that there are only about 60 large blue chips that really support the market, and all other small stocks have fallen miserably - most of them continue to offer 60-70% discounts on the basis of yesterday, and the brokers have also taken advantage of the situation and stipulated 2.5 times leverage. Under the circumstances, the brokerage margin was increased, and the actual leverage ratio was only 2 times. This forced many investors holding stocks to cut their profits at low prices, thus making Wall Street rich.

On this day, Livermore's work was relatively easy. On the one hand, he picked up the small tickets that had fallen to pieces and used them to close positions. On the other hand, he quietly reduced his holdings of some big blue chips that had risen in price, preparing to find more suitable opportunities to sell short. Throughout the day They are all oscillating repeatedly in the process of selling high and buying low, constantly cleaning out the remaining smell of yesterday; Wednesday and Thursday both experienced such a release, and on Friday the stock index even stubbornly stood at 300 points, and Impacted to the position of 311 points.

On the same day, a reporter asked Contini: Is the statement that 300 points is the starting point of a new bull market in the United States still valid?

Contini laughed and shook his head: "I think this bull market is basically over. All that's left is to sort out and wait for economic data and social conditions to improve... And you can't just look at the situation in the U.S. stock market. European stock markets have also seen sharp declines. Before both sides stabilize, I think it is too early to talk about a new bull market. But if you talk about the future? I think there is no problem with 1000 points in my lifetime! ”

This is really not his bragging. He has truly seen the Dow Jones Index being so full of morale. Let alone 1,000 points, it has broken 10,000 points, so he naturally dares to say this. The reporter's press release was also quite bold. He wrote boldly: "The president said, 300 points is nothing. I will take you to see 1,000 points in the future!"

These words baffled many senior executives and professionals, but they also encouraged investors to have great courage and spread the word: The president is looking at 1,000 points. Don’t be afraid, this is just a technical adjustment.

This rumor spread more and more widely, so much so that Contini had to reiterate it again at Friday's press conference: I do look at 1,000 points, but I didn't say in the past few years. This sentence must be at least 25 years. . I'm still young and I believe I have at least 40 more years to live - so within my lifetime!

After this explanation, the whole audience was stunned at first, and then burst into laughter. At that moment, it was as if the plunge no longer existed.