Mediterranean hegemon
Chapter 44 The Big Short (31)
In such a repeatedly circling and oscillating market, Livermore led traders to hunt in the market every day. Although this feeling made him enjoy it, he still kept an eye on the market trends. By October 24, he had Sensitively feeling that something was wrong with the atmosphere, he could feel that more and more short positions were being taken, and that a further collapse of the market seemed to be around the corner.
Contini’s feeling was more direct than his, because a big crash broke out on this day in history, known as Black Thursday, but it hasn’t collapsed yet, which is completely different from the trend of history. Just because it hasn’t collapsed yet doesn’t mean it won’t happen in a few days. It would collapse, let alone never collapse, so he wanted to discuss follow-up actions with Livermore.
"On the 26th, there was a loan of US$200 million to be repaid to Citigroup and Manhattan Bank. This was originally a normal transaction, but I found that after the first few payments were repaid, they did not lend to industry and commerce, but instead It has enlarged the short position in the market, so if the $200 million passes, the short position will be further enlarged, and it is likely to be the last straw that breaks the camel's back..." Francisco explained, "But not returning it is not good. Possibly, because time has expired.”
Contini said disapprovingly: "It doesn't matter. I'll just let the market circuit breaker tomorrow! Then I'll pay back the US$200 million the day after tomorrow. Let's see if they take advantage of the situation to go short or join the ranks of maintaining stability. If they want to maintain stability, they might as well return it in advance." How many of them..."
“How can we shut down the market?”
"It's very simple... hold a press conference and throw out the credibility bomb!" Contini smiled, "The reason why I insisted on the first few points is to make people believe that what we say has weight and is effective. , this credit value can be amplified tonight.”
As soon as the stock market closed on October 24, United Group suddenly announced that it would hold a press conference in the evening.
The reporters were shocked because United Group held press conferences on Tuesdays and Fridays recently, and suddenly it was moved to Thursday. Something big must have happened. Sure enough, at the beginning of the press conference, spokesman Alexander Luo Bin dropped a heavy bomb: "First, due to more than a month of negotiations, some cooperative companies refused to admit the actual cost reduction caused by the drop in market raw material prices and cut contracts, and attempted to introduce third-party potential target countries to put pressure on the United Group. The president has done arduous persuasion work, but has never been able to reach an agreement, so he solemnly announced that the consultation process will be suspended starting from today. The list of these companies includes..."
He read a long list. Companies with 4.4 billion contracts and at least 3.8 billion contracts are on this list. In other words, 3.8 billion contracts are suspended indefinitely, and it is unknown whether the other 600 million can be finally fulfilled.
"Second, due to the current violent market fluctuations, the European stock index fell by 27%, and the price index of major industrial and agricultural products fell by 36%. According to the content of the agreement and relevant emergency clauses that were originally adopted, the United Group announced that it would increase the price of unlimited crude oil purchase and storage. Set at US$0.75 per barrel (the port price of Libyan crude oil), and promised not to lower it. In order to fulfill this special commitment, United Group first delivered a US$100 million deposit to the Italian headquarters of United Bank, and at the same time, Italy's domestic 240 million barrel storage facility will begin operating at full capacity;
Third, because Britain, France and other countries have rejected trade contracts and orders worth up to 140 million US dollars for Italian products on the grounds of market changes, in order to protect the Italian national industry, as the largest conglomerate in Italy, we will retaliate equally and reduce the corresponding sales from now on. Trade contracts, suspending the import of relevant industrial facilities, raw materials and agricultural products from Britain, France and their colonies.
Agricultural products and raw materials are now supplied from the Far East and South America. We have reached agreements with Argentina, Brazil, Chile and other countries to import beef, coffee, soybeans and other products from the two countries. These countries will subscribe to Italian mainland products worth US$30 million. Naval equipment and scrap steel... We have reached an agreement with China to import a large amount of coal, grain and cotton from the country. We will replace it with some industrial products and scrap steel. If the cost increases, the Italian Ministry of Finance will subsidize it. The United Group will voluntarily bear 75% of the subsidy amount..."
There are a lot of puzzling things here: Why is the trade friction between Italy and Britain and France discussed at a press conference in the United States? Why should United Group bear the losses caused by trade frictions to other Italian companies?
But for experienced reporters in the financial industry, the subtext behind this news is too obvious: Italy is already determined to fight a trade war. As long as Italian exports are damaged, Italy will stop corresponding imports. In the international trade system, Italy's economic status is very fragile: what it exports are dispensable luxuries, while what needs to be imported are indispensable materials such as raw materials. However, Italy has one thing that other countries cannot compare with. Italian politics and economy are controlled by a small number of institutions and consortiums. Making decisions is much easier than in other countries. The Parliament is ineffective and there is no resistance at all.
The simplest example is that the Italian ambassador can only acknowledge and echo the relevant declarations and contents issued by Contini as a diplomatic envoy in the United States, and has no room to participate in the discussion; Contini’s statements on behalf of the Italian business community will also be received The entire Italian business community unanimously recognizes that this is the only consortium in Italy that can still speak volumes internationally! Although the United Group usually behaves domineeringly, it is never ambiguous when it comes to taking action. For example, in order to not import from Britain, France and its colonies and increase costs, the United Group is actually willing to bear three-quarters of the excess expenditure. This fully proves that fascism The superiority of the United Group - the positioning of the United Group as a national policy group is indeed not an exaggeration.
Reporters asked why this was the case. These decisions were simply difficult to explain for free and market economies. Francesco replied with a stern expression of "system innovation": ...The Italian people are a great country in the new era armed with the Three Flags Theory. The citizens have perfectly implemented institutional innovation, have full institutional self-confidence, cultural self-confidence, and theoretical self-confidence, and are determined and capable of safeguarding their own interests. As an outstanding representative of Italian industry and commerce, the United Group must naturally strictly follow the relevant policies and routes of the leader. and policies, in order to concentrate on maintaining economic stability in Italy, it is not a big deal to temporarily sacrifice some interests in the United States or elsewhere. This is a trade-off between local and overall, short-term and long-term interests. As a good subordinate and student of the leader, the president As an Italian youth leader, he must take the lead in implementing the party's line and policies...
"I reiterate that United Group has no board of directors and no shareholders' meeting... United Group is only responsible to the president, and the president is only responsible to the leader and the 40 million Italian people! This is our road to confidence!"
Contini concluded: "Now invisible hands from all sides interfere too much and put pressure on the United Group. Last time it was liquidity pressure, this time it is trade pressure. I don't know what administrative and administrative measures will come next time." Political pressure, I have full psychological expectations for this. I always firmly believe that the path we adhere to is just and bright, and the just cause will inevitably win... We are not like other consortiums, especially some that live in seclusion, The Jewish speculative syndicate that controls everything does it for the interests of the family, the interests of capital, and their own interests. They can trample and sacrifice the interests of others at will, but we do it for the interests of the country, for the interests of the Italian people, and for these two We can sacrifice ourselves for the interests of the people, this is our biggest difference..."
As he was leaving the venue, a reporter stopped him and asked, "What exactly is this Jewish speculative syndicate you call?"
Contini smiled coldly: "You will see us soon..."
That night, Hoover called Contini, but in the end he didn't know what to say - he was also mediating matters related to trade contracts, but these large companies refused to reduce prices, even after the raw materials had been significantly reduced. At that time, he still hoped to obtain better benefits. When discussing business, he could not say anything to accuse Contini. As for the Jewish speculative syndicate, he also saw from this short period of time that the trade war between Britain, France and Italy, There are shadows of consortium manipulation behind it, but the bad thing is that some consequences must be borne by the United States itself.
Contini comforted him: "Don't worry, Mr. President, I still want these contracts and equipment, but I think letting the market fall is more conducive to waking them up... This is also good for maintaining your authority, Italy Industrial and commercial enterprises usually complain that the government has too much control and strict control, but now they know to go to the government whenever something goes wrong. These large and well-known companies in the United States have their own circles and do not quite obey the authority of the president. I think after learning a lesson, They may be able to feel your care and love for them..."
Hoover was speechless and just hoped that the circuit breaker mechanism would work and prevent the stock market from falling too far...
Although history has had divergences, it still continued to move towards its own destiny: when the market opened on October 25, countless selling orders poured out. In just 11 minutes, the first circuit breaker in the history of U.S. securities was triggered. At this time, the trading volume of the entire market was still high. However, it is only 900 million U.S. dollars. A large number of orders are hanging on it and cannot be completed, so it enters the circuit breaker period.
As soon as the circuit breaker period entered, Mitchell called: "President, it's not okay to keep falling like this. We have to save the market, save the market..."
"I'm sorry, Italy needs funds very much. You asked me to return it too urgently and too quickly. I will reduce my holdings later... If you want the shares of the United Department, I can transfer them to you by agreement. Isn't there still a sum of 200 million?" Is the loan due tomorrow? Do you want me to use the shares of Petroleum Algeria and United Motors to pay you?”
"No, no, no... no!" Mitchell screamed as if he had been bitten by a poisonous snake.
Contini said with a smile but not a smile: "Then let's sell it together... Anyway, I know that you have also established a lot of short positions recently... Everyone together?"
Mitchell bitterly squeezed out a sentence through his teeth: "Okay, everyone..."
Fifteen minutes later, the first circuit breaker was lifted. Many sellers were worried that they would be trapped by the second circuit breaker and ran away... The second circuit breaker valve was -10%. This time it performed slightly better and took 27 minutes. Just hit this line, and then everything came to an abrupt end!
On October 25, the New York stock market hit its limit of 1,000 shares, and the day's trading ended within an hour! 9.7 million shares were crowded on the circuit breaker plate, and the collapse began...
Preview of the title of the next chapter: Big Collapse!
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