My 1982

Li Zhongxin did not have any accidents for this call to him, but did not think that the big shovel will play so early.

Many times, Li Zhongxin felt that the big even gave him a call, at least ten days later, then, the situation of the Asian crisis has been revealed.

However, now the Thai Thai Baht just burst, the phone call is already playing.

For China's financial security, Li Zhongxin really doesn't worry, after all, China's finance has been controlled in the big state-owned banks in the big and the country, and the power of foreign countries want to do empty China or in China. Things they are financed, they are thinking, but they will not have any success.

"Loyalty! Thailand has happened this kind of thing, how do you see, what is the kind of saying and opinion? I don't understand, why there will be such a situation in Thailand "After listening to Li Zhongxin, I gave a slightly, and I asked Li Zhongxin.

At this time, I didn't think about Li Zhongxun, I didn't have ideas. Those things didn't matter, and I wanted to know how the crisis on Thailand appeared. Li Zhongxin is there. How to see.

"Big, so let you talk! Thailand has treated a basket of exchange rates in 1984, the central bank's exchange rate, the floating range is ±. For a long time, 1 US dollar is stable to 24.5-26.5 baht .

From 1984 to 1994, the baht is "staring at the" US dollar exchange rate due to the continuous depreciation of the main currency, and the Thai baht also depreciates with the dollar. That is, Thai goods that the same price becomes cheaper in other countries outside the United States, which greatly improves Thailand's export competitiveness, and the rapid growth of exports has effectively promoted the economic development of Thailand.

From 1986 to 1994, the Thai manufacturing export year increased by 30%, and the proportion of manufacturing exports accounted for 36% to 81%. The manufacturing industry accounted for the proportion of GDP to 29%; the proportion of agricultural exports was 47.7 % Dropped to 13.9%, agricultural output value accounted for 21% to 11% from 21%.

Thailand has released the capital project of balance of payments earlier, and the main measures are: 1. Open offshore financial business, launch Bangkok International Financial Arrangement (BIBF). Based on this arrangement, in 1993, the Central Bank of Thailand issued a BIBF business license in Thailand's commercial banks and 35 foreign commercial banks in Thailand. Commercial banks that get business licenses can absorb deposits and borrows abroad.

The Thai government allows non-Thai residents to open a Thai baht account in Thailand, deposit or borrowing, and free exchange. By 1996, Thailand's capital projects have been basically released.

In 1994, foreign private capital efforts and flowing into Thailand reached there about 150 billion Thai baht, an increase of more than 10 times higher than 1989. And, foreign capital flowing into Thailand is short-term capital.

Thailand's banks have borrowed short-term capital in the world, but in China, long-term loans, a large number of loans flowed to the real estate market. In addition, foreign capital also flows into the stock market of Thailand.

In 1993, foreign investment was $ 3 billion in the investment of Thailand, while 1994-1995 rose to $ 6 billion. In the real estate market, foreign banks lend to Thailand's low-interest dollar loans, 30% of the real estate industry. Therefore, Thailand's stock price and real estate prices have risen, forming asset prices foam.

In 1995, the US economic development was strong, and the exchange rate of the US dollar on the main currency was turned from depreciation to continued appreciation. Due to the continuous increase in the US dollar, the actual effective exchange rate of Thai Baht followed the US dollar and weakened Thailand's export competitiveness. In 1996, the growth of Thailand has dropped from 24% in 1995 to 3%.

The decline in exports has led to the rapid expansion of Thailand trade deficit. In 1995, Thailand trade deficit reached $ 16.2 billion, accounting for more than 8% GDP ratio. At the same time, due to the appreciation of the US dollar, a large number of short-term capital evacuated from the Thai capital market, and the asset prices in Thailand began to rupture.

In 1996, the foam rupture of the Thai real estate market caused a deterioration of commercial banks and financial companies, and banking system accumulated a large number of bad loans formed by real estate loans. Banks were unable to pay for foreign debts.

May 1997 - In May 1997, Thailand's stock index fell more than 60%, and the turmoil of the financial market and the deterioration of the entity economy, exacerbated the market for the expectation of Thai baht depreciation.

In order to maintain the fixed exchange rate, the central bank of the Thailand increases interest rates, while high interest rates further inhibited the demand for investment and consumption, accelerating the economic recession. Because of the high interest rate of banks, companies were forced to seek low interest capital to the international financial market, thereby further expanding the size of foreign debt and forming a vicious circle.

Thailand has always been one of the countries in Southeast Asia, a rapid economic development.

Thailand has maintained an annual growth rate of 8% in 10 years before the outbreak of the financial crisis in 1997. However, in this process, foreign investment has entered too much, and the Thai economy has overheated, and the result is structural disorders in the entire country, and now the depreciation of Thai baht! It can be said to be a necessity.

It seems to be just Thailand's baht depreciation, but this is not the ultimate goal of the financial speculators in the international financial speculation. The next time, the entire Asian region will be greatly influenced by this matter, including Hong Kong we just returned. The same one.

This storm has been very anxious, in a long period of time, Thailand and the countries around Thailand will enter a recession, at least I look like this. "Li Zhongxin said in a preciseness.

For these data, Li Zhongxin basically makes a decomposition, which can be said, is that some people who are responsible for financial or Asian economies are not necessarily such a data.

"The data you said is accurate? Is it really so serious?" The big man asked.

The more I listened to Li Zhongxin, and he felt my heart.

how to say! Daxie is quite high for economic control and cognition, for the situation of surrounding countries! He always knows some, it is also very optimistic, Li Zhongxin said the data! He is not so knowing, after all, these things have not been collected for a long time, it does not do this.

Because he thinks that he is more concerned about the economy of the Asia-Pacific region, but Li Zhongxin said that there are some data that he doesn't know here.