National Tide 1980

It is absolutely true that human nature is to seek benefits and avoid harm, to be selfish, lazy, and to follow the crowd.

But all this can only be explained as animal instinct.

After all, the definition of human beings is advanced animals, and these things can only reflect the biological basis of human beings.

And the light in human nature, which allows people to break free from the shackles of animal nature and can reflect the difference between humans and animals, can be called "advanced attributes", but all of these things need to restrain and violate these animal natures to achieve and realize.

And the individuals who can often do this among humans are the best of the human group.

These people are like opening a gene lock, and their ideas and ways of thinking are absolutely different from ordinary people.

Ning Weimin is like this.

When he was in a dilemma, he suddenly had a sense of déjà vu.

Thinking of Yin Yue, who had caused trouble at the beginning, was in danger and faced the disaster of imprisonment. He was also so worried about gains and losses.

So, the voice that made him suddenly enlightened at that time also sounded, and Kang Shude's suggestions and teachings are still in his ears.

"Zhuangzi said that the clever ones work hard while the wise ones worry, and the incompetent ones seek nothing but eat and wander around..."

"If you really want to do great things, it is not enough to have the ability to do things. You must not only take on tasks but also be able to take on responsibilities..."

"If people are faced with a dilemma, then the easiest choice is often the wrong one..."

These words, one by one, seemed to be spoken to his heart.

Especially when he saw the master's face, which was over 60 years old, Ning Weimin felt as if the person in front of him had become his master.

And at this moment, the master seemed to have seen his hesitation and difficulties, and said with great sympathy, "Of course, this matter has nothing to do with you, and I understand that the risk is not small, and it is indeed possible to lose money. This is just my personal idea and wish, so I still say that you can refuse my request, my friend, you don't have to worry about anything, even if you say 'no', it will not change the relationship between us, I promise..."

People's true feelings are highly contagious.

So, facing the master's tolerance, Ning Weimin could no longer say a word "no" from his mouth.

"No, no, I'm happy to help you. I'll join you. As I said just now, as long as you ask, I'll do my best."

He even felt that he couldn't face the master's gentle eyes, and hurriedly avoided the master's sight by pretending to lower his head in thought.

"Oh? Really?" The master showed a stunned expression, and was a little bit unbelieving, "My friend, you have to think it through."

Ning Weimin, who was deeply shocked, tried to cover up his retreat and guilty expression just now, so he spoke nonsense seriously.

"Don't get me wrong, I am really surprised that your emotional ties with the Weiden family are so deep that you are willing to take such financial risks for this friend. But my hesitation just now was not because I was worried about the risks and afraid of financial losses. I just feel that if we confront each other head-on now, the timing is not good for us. We are passively fighting, which is really a disadvantage. Then don't we have a better way to solve this problem? Or, is it possible for us to get what we want in a different way at a lower cost..."

It is reasonable for him to say so.

The master finally felt relieved, stunned for a moment, then nodded to him and smiled trustingly.

"Oh, have you thought of something? Then you can tell me. I know that your ideas are different. You will always inspire me and surprise me..."

"I..."

Seeing that the master was so expectant of him, Ning Weimin immediately fell into the embarrassment of being trapped in his own cocoon, and he was inevitably a little speechless.

Heaven, earth, he just said it casually.

Why did the master misunderstand?

Why is he so confident in him!

He really wanted to slap himself in the face, so that he would not be so rude in the future.

But as the saying goes, brilliant ideas are often forced out.

Maybe it was because the opinions were talked about so much.

In this case, it would be too embarrassing if he didn't say something,

Or maybe Ning Weimin was really talented and had some quick wit.

Anyway, in this critical situation, he was like a man possessed by Ikkyu, and he actually came up with an idea at lightning speed.

"Mr. Carton" Ning Weimin coughed, smoothed his throat, and suddenly asked, "I am not familiar with the Paris Stock Exchange, and I don't know which is the largest brokerage here. What I want to know is, how many tricks are there in the stock market here? Which brokerage here has margin trading business?"

"Hmm? Do you mean to borrow money from a brokerage to buy stocks?"

Pierre Carton pondered for a moment, and the subsequent answer was somewhat uninteresting.

"We have also thought about the method you mentioned. France's BNP Paribas and CLSA both provide these services. The United States' JPMorgan Chase and the United Kingdom's Barclays Securities can also provide these services. However, due to the economic downturn in France and the sluggish stock market for many years, the amount of financing provided by these securities firms is not high, at most 30% of the stock market value. The interest rate is not low, and it is 14%. Moreover, from another perspective, if we adopt this method, then of course the other party can also do so. Doing so will only increase our costs and will not help at all."

However, he did not expect that instead of being discouraged, Ning Weimin actually had a proud smile on his lips.

Moreover, Pierre Cardin is right when he says that Ning Weimin's thinking is different from others.

"No, Mr. Catton, actually I don't want to raise money, I want to lend securities. Do you know which brokerage firm holds LVMH stocks? As long as these brokerage firms are willing to provide us with securities lending services for this stock. "

"Security lending? You still want to sell LVMH shares!"

"Yes. Why not? LVMH's stock has already been raised. If we continue to buy together, if the other party competes with us for chips, of course it will rise even higher. Then LVMH's stock will be affected by this war. , It is a serious deviation from the fundamentals. In this case, it is correct to sell the stock. Sooner or later, the stock price will return to normal, and we will definitely make a profit. "

"But...but...what about the veto power?"

"We are still proceeding according to your plan. Just use the 500 million U.S. dollars we pooled together to buy it!"

It's okay not to say it. After Ning Weimin said these words, Master Pierkaton was really confused by him.

"Then...then do you want to buy or sell? I...why can't I understand your plan?"

"Haha! Of course we buy first and then sell."

"this……"

Ning Weimin laughed again when he saw Pierre Cardon put down his coffee cup and wiped the sweat from his forehead with a handkerchief.

"Mr. Caton, don't worry, let me explain it to you slowly. In fact, there is no contradiction in this."

As he spoke, he simply took the paper and pen and continued to explain while drawing a schematic diagram.

"Please see, we first used funds to buy 4% of the stock to help your friend Henry get a veto power to ensure that his key interests in LVMH are not infringed and that he can remain on the board of directors. These Stock shares are very important, they are our fundamentals, and of course we will not sell them no matter how much we pay for them.”

Picardon nodded.

Although he was still confused in general, at least up to this point, he understood and approved of it.

"But other shares are more maneuverable. For example, if we use securities lending to short-sell this stock, it is because these stocks are not worth so much money in the first place. I want to use this almost risk-free method to short-sell this stock." This is a way to make money and arbitrage, so as to make up for the capital losses caused by our high-priced transactions. In fact, this kind of transaction is a hedging transaction, and the purpose is to reduce risks and offset the additional capital losses while ensuring our equity interests. To put it bluntly, it is just that we resold the LVMH held by the brokerage, which has nothing to do with the LVMH shares we hold. "

Don't tell me, a master is a master. Even though he is old, his mind is still very bright.

Although I was stunned for a while, I quickly rounded this corner just like I had solved a word problem correctly.

The old French man's mental state also became excited.

"What you mean is that as long as we buy and sell at the same time, it is equivalent to that we are not actually affected by the rise in stock prices. In the end, we bought the stock at the cost of only the commission paid to the brokerage and the interest on the securities loan."

"Yes, you are absolutely right. That's what I mean. Of course, for safety reasons, we can spread out several accounts, or use other people's accounts for different buying and selling transactions. Buying transactions can be fair, but selling Our securities lending transactions must be carefully hidden, so that our true plans will not be noticed by our opponents. "

"Okay, great." The master was so happy that he couldn't help but hugged Ning Weimin excitedly, "My friend, I will never forget what you have done. I will call Henry now. , I want you to meet."

However, the master's cheerfulness only lasted a few minutes. When he went to make a call, he soon noticed some shortcomings.

"No, wait, wait..."

He stopped what he was doing, thought about it seriously, put down the phone and walked back again.

"Ning, there seems to be a key problem in your plan that is difficult to solve. I mean, if your idea can work, there is a prerequisite. We must ensure that LVMH's stock falls back quickly at the point where we sold it. But how can we guarantee this? I mean, what if they continue to invest in MH? What if LVMH’s stock continues to be pushed up by them, or attracts others to fish in troubled waters, and it remains at this level? What should we do in high positions? Have you ever thought that if this happens, our losses will be doubled..."

For a moment, Pierkaton seemed to have seen the most terrifying situation. His face immediately turned ugly, as if he was frightened by his own words.

However, it was still different from what he thought. Ning Weimin remained calm and said extremely firmly.

"No, please believe me, the thing you are worried about will not happen. It won't happen."

"But where does your confidence come from? How can you guarantee it 100%?"

However, from Pierkaton's point of view, it is impossible for Ning Weimin to find a convincing basis.

If the basis of his insistence is only subjective emotions, it is of course dangerous.

"Perhaps I worded it incorrectly, so let me rephrase it. I wonder if it can enhance your confidence."

Ning Weimin understood the changes in the master's expression and realized that his words might be a bit absolute.

So I stopped being stubborn and simply changed my approach to reassure the master again.

"Okay, I admit that the situation you mentioned may happen. But even if it happens, it will have no impact on us. Again, because we are doing hedging transactions, not gambling. We The number of stocks sold by short selling must be what we have in hand. As long as we maintain this ratio, no matter what extreme situation occurs, we can handle it without any big problems. "

"What is the worst result? Even if the stocks we sell rise to the sky and are several times higher than the purchase price, don't we still have enough stocks in our hands? How can we be completely injured? Retreat. At worst, we'll just lose tens of millions of dollars a year and hand it over to the brokerage. With the income from Pierre Cardon and the income from my personal assets, we can keep going for a few years."

"But think about it, how difficult is it for LVMH's stock to have this kind of trend? You also said that the French economy is not good and the stock market is sluggish. Even though the internal fighting in the company is no longer a secret, it has attracted many fishermen in troubled waters. People are making trouble. But the stock price is at a high level away from the fundamentals, but it requires a huge amount of funds to support it. How long can it last?”

"Even Bernard Arnault and the Lazard investment bank behind him don't have this ability. Their funds also have to bear financing costs. And their purpose is of course to gain control of the company at the minimum cost. Can they? They won’t pay for the money they spend, and they won’t make a loss-making deal.”

"What's more, our allies here are also members of the LVMH board of directors. If they get a veto power, they can't dominate the company's management, but they can always make trouble, right? There is a kind of person in Japan called 'professional shareholders' who rely on buying enough Once this news comes out, can LVMH’s stock price remain high?”

"Also, the reason why I will allocate Japanese speculative funds overseas is because the rise of Japanese stocks is too exaggerated, which makes me strongly feel the danger. Perhaps the overall situation of the French stock market is not bad, and it has not been exaggerated. . But the problem is that the communication conditions in various countries have also been greatly improved. The major stock markets in the world are increasingly influencing each other, whether it is the Tokyo stock market or the U.S. stock market, if something goes wrong, I am sure that will happen. The avalanche is coming. What will happen to LVMH then?”

Ning Weimin's explanation was not in vain, and his inference shocked Pierkaton.

He thought about it carefully and was successfully convinced.

Although probability is invisible and intangible, it does conform to the objective existence of logical thinking.

He did understand two things now. Ning Weimin was a genius, and he also took this matter seriously.

But it's not over yet.

Just when Pierkaton didn't know what to say and wanted to hug Ning Weimin again, Ning Weimin actually said it again.

"To be honest, in my opinion, the probability of this happening is getting higher and higher. I predict that it will definitely happen in half a year to a year. So in my opinion, this is even an opportunity for us to turn defeat into victory in one fell swoop. Time It is beneficial to us. We should keep hoarding funds and delay to paralyze our opponents. When the market changes significantly, we will buy up all the LVMH stocks. When the time comes, we will turn defeat into victory. Take back his company. Of course, this is my personal opinion. Whether you want to do this or not depends on you. Can you really trust me unconditionally?"

This time, the ball was passed back to Pierre Cardon's feet.