New Shun 1730
Chapter 1155: Many Forks in the Road, Where Are We Now (Ten)
Then, history proves that he was a good minister of the Ministry of Revenue, but an idiot in geopolitics and strategy.
Of course, sometimes, we cannot look at the problem without the fog of history.
If we do not look at the situation of France at this moment from the perspective of Zhuge Liang in the future, Ma Chaoerte’s choice cannot be said to be wrong.
In North America, because of Liu Yu’s intervention, the result of the Ginseng War is that France still holds the advantage of North American trade with China.
The tobacco and corn of the British colonies cannot be exchanged for Dashun’s hair.
At this time, the cotton production of the British colonies was actually only a few hundred thousand catties, and there was no large-scale cotton planting.
On the other hand, France, ginseng, oriental pearls, and mink fur were all hard currencies at this time, and they could really be exchanged from Dashun.
Therefore, Washington killed the French envoy, even if the French officer there was the brother of the messenger who was killed, he could only capture Washington and force him to write a guarantee and a confession-because France did not want to fight.
Why would someone who has already taken advantage go to fight? Free?
If France wanted to fight, Washington's killing of the messenger was a free excuse.
When the British and French newspapers reached Dashun, Liu Yu only took a glance at the statements of both sides and understood who wanted to fight and who didn't.
India.
The British East India Company had enough profits in India and could sell a large number of Indian goods back to the country.
The British East India Company was a comprador at this time, so it made money.
The king and the nobles all invested, so on the one hand, they made a cotton cloth ban, and on the other hand, it did not hinder making money.
France began to implement a controlled economy from Colbert, and mercantilism was too deep.
The tariffs were very strict.
One thing to note is that the dominance of Sino-Western trade is now in the hands of Dashun. And Dashun will not provoke France for nothing and insist on smuggling to France.
This is one point.
Tea, French people and coffee, few people drink tea, because coffee planting is France's own industry in the colonies. This supports the domestic economy.
Ceylon, India, and Assam did not produce tea at this time.
Tea was produced in these places. Historically, it was not until the end of 1848 that Robert Fortney, through debate and wit, won the favor of the monks in the Buddhist temple of Wuyi Mountain. After exchanging tea technology in the temple, he stole tea seeds and began to plant them in Ceylon, Assam and other places.
And silk...
Indeed, India produces silk. Turkey also produces silk. Persia also produces silk. Mexico also produces silk. Even France itself has planted mulberry trees and raised silkworms.
But French silk is a high-end silk manufacturing industry.
Therefore, France cannot use Indian silk, Turkish silk, Mexican silk or Persian silk.
Only Dashun Lake silk can be used - this is the same reason as Liu Yu ruined the Guangzhou textile industry. Yuejin cannot use local silk, only Jiangnan high-quality silk can be used - silk is a luxury product, and good silk must not be used, because people who can afford silk will not seek cheapness. This is determined by the characteristics of luxury goods: they are all well-known nobles, and at the royal palace ball, other people's wives wear high-quality silk, and your wife wears low-end silk, so it's better not to go.
Therefore, India is an embarrassing existence here in France.
France can't make money in India, at least not in trade.
There are no raw materials that are very needed. If the raw silk is not up to standard, you can't buy Indian rice and ship it to Paris, right? Parisians eat steamed buns, not rice.
France's most profitable trade line is North American ginseng, which is exchanged for Dashun raw silk, and then the Dashun raw silk is woven into French high-end silk, and then the high-end silk is sold.
Does this trade line have anything to do with India?
This is the reality facing France.
At this point in time, it can be clearly said that there is only one person in the world, Liu Yu, who is sure that India will become a vast cotton cloth market and cotton production area.
The British do not believe that India will become a market.
They simply cannot believe it.
The tariffs on cotton cloth have reached the top, and the domestic textile industry is still under pressure. You tell me that India will become a cotton cloth consumption market in the future? Are you having a fever?
This is selling coal to Datong, selling salt to Haizhou, selling soybeans to the Northeast, selling tea to Fujian, and selling porcelain to Jingdezhen. Anyone with a normal mind will find it abnormal.
It seems magical, but it is not.
After breaking the ideological stamp, the reality that must be recognized is that before 1800, India's cotton textile industry was the best in Western Europe.
After seeing this reality, France's choice may not be wrong.
The reason why the British East India Company can make profits in India is not because the British are so smart, but because the British East India Company has the opportunity to be a comprador.
The French East India Company really wanted to be a comprador but couldn't. It had no money and lost money all the time. Before 1765, even the Swedish East India Company and the Danish East India Company made money, so why did the French East India Company lose money?
Because of Protestantism and Catholicism? Denmark was sanctioned by the Dashun regime, and Catholicism was more devout than France.
Because of mercantilism and free trade? In order to avoid the mercantilism laws of its own country, the Swedish East India Company burned account books all day long, and even sank the Gothenburg to make false accounts.
Because of the lack of pioneering spirit? Before Liu Yu asked France to learn the trade goods of the East India Company, the French had set up a special South American smuggling route to exchange South American silver for China to buy goods.
In fact, because France's handicraft industry base is better than Denmark and Sweden, much better.
Moreover, the French commercial bourgeoisie is a group of weaklings. They dare not publicly publish such lofty theories as "On the deregulation of tariffs and the large-scale import of oriental cotton cloth is beneficial to the entire French people", and only dare to publish such low theories as "On the aristocracy should widely participate in foreign trade, increase import tariffs, and protect domestic industry".
From these issues, the French people's choice to maintain peace in India and obtain peace through the strategic tolerance of bearing humiliation and bearing heavy burdens may not be a wrong choice.
However, reality is not wishful thinking.
I don't want to fight, others want to fight me, so I give in and retreat, and others will not fight me... With this kind of thinking, it is not unfair to label Ma Chaoerte as a stupid minister.
As the governor of Ceylon of Dashun, Du Feng's personal evaluation of Dupleix is both high and low.
He is said to be good because Du Feng thinks that he is really good at the art of diplomacy and his strategy is basically right: whether it is the first to think of training Indian soldiers in India, or thinking of using the chaos of the disputes between the Indian Jiedushi to influence the war with a small number of elites, or thinking about collecting salt tax and land tax in India instead of doing business, or even winning over the Indian princes and Jiedushi to directly participate in the coup to gain strategic advantages... they are all very powerful.
He is said to be bad because he has a lot of strategies in his mind, but there is no tactical genius under his command to help him complete the strategy. Moreover, no one in the court supports him. He finally looks forward to the support of the naval fleet, but he can break up with the fleet commander in two days.
Strategically, today the Deccan Jiedushi is fighting for a coup, and Dupleix seizes the opportunity to enter the field and gain two or three counties; tomorrow he supports the Hyderabashi Jiedushi to compete for the title of the Carnatic Jiedushi and gain another ally; the day after tomorrow he supports a puppet and gets rewarded by becoming the deputy Jiedushi south of the Krishna River to rule legitimately.
Tactically, this group of allies had 15,000 troops, besieging a castle with 600 people, and they could not take it down after two months of fighting; the allies had 8,000 troops, but were defeated by the 1,500 on the opposite side. The British side even began to transfer the company of the Guards Grenadiers Regiment to this side, and the French cabinet was still thinking about transferring Dupleix back in exchange for 20 years of peace...
So that they kept winning strategically and losing tactically, and finally got a draw.
But until now, they still have the advantage strategically, and the initiative is actually in the hands of the French. As long as they give certain support, the initiative to make trouble is still on Dupleix's side.
Now Dupleix has been recalled by the King of France, and it is said that the order is very strict [if you don't obey the order, you will be arrested directly].
This is a happy event for Du Feng, who is thinking about being crowned a marquis.
The current situation of France in India is all supported by Dupleix alone, and many allied relationships are maintained by him.
Or in other words, he and his wife.
In order to build a good relationship with the local princes, Dupleix married a widow.
A diplomatic and charming widow who is good at dancing and sharp-minded.
Who does the local princes recognize as Gordon? When the French were most needed to help, the governor was replaced. Why didn't I surrender to the British?
The situation of France in India is that there is no system and it is all supported by one person. It is a typical case of the death of a leader and the end of a government.
The people on the Dashun side know the meaning and characteristics of the death of a leader and the end of a government too well.
If someone else is replaced, the situation will collapse directly.
Now this person is about to leave. Du Feng has a lot of regrets on his lips, but in fact 80% of his strength is to maintain his facial expression and not show ecstasy.
Because from the strategic point of view of Dashun, what does the transfer of Dupleix prove?
It proves that the trap planned by Liu Yu to let France spend its efforts in America and give up India when necessary has fallen into the trap of the French.
It also proves that Liu Yu did not go for France's controlled economy and high tariffs, but instead gave France a lot of benefits, including ginseng and sable fur, so that France, knowing that it could not maintain multiple developments, took the initiative to choose North America and actually gave up India.
As long as the French were not completely defeated in India, Dashun would not be able to take action in India.
Dashun must maintain a good relationship with France, at least until the end of World War I, they must be allies.
India can only be entered if France can no longer hold on and exchange Dashun's troops for India, which it cannot defend anyway.
The French may have a good idea, as Dashun is next to them and has a garrison in Ceylon.
Let Dashun be the mediator, and Britain and France will maintain the current status in India, and no one will take the initiative to make trouble.
The idea is good.
The reality is cruel.
Because whether to interfere or send troops is in the hands of Dashun.
And Dashun does not need to sign a secret agreement with Britain or anything, just a few actions to hint, and Britain will make the "correct" judgment: Dashun will not intervene.
Dupleix's idea was to eat India and collect head taxes, salt taxes, and land taxes.
The problem is that it loses money in the short term, and there is no profit at all. It loses money every day; while in North America, there are ships of ginseng, sable fur, and pearls shipped to Dashun to exchange for money and lake silk.
Which is more important?
The French choice was actually right.
Including the cake that Liu Yu painted for the Emperor of Dashun, it was also about India's salt tax, capitation tax, and mu tax.
When Liu Yu painted cakes for the emperor, he always painted cakes from the perspective of feudal aristocrats and feudal monarchs.
There has never been a capitalist pie for the feudal emperors. The railway pie was to make it easier for the emperor to rule and suppress; the bank pie was to make it easier for the emperor to confiscate all the silver in the bank when necessary; the mining pie was to solve the problem of the Xishan coal mine in the capital that was a headache for the emperor.
The problem is that before Liu Yu drew this pie for the emperor, he used the Trojan Horse trick.
With the help of the Dutch, tens of thousands of Han people went to Ceylon and a Guiyi Army was created.
The tens of thousands of Han people in Ceylon were the primary premise for the Emperor of Dashun to accept the pie drawn by Liu Yu.
This pie was laid out at the time when the Persian civil strife, Japan's opening to the outside world, and the great development of the Caribbean sugar industry led to the relative oversupply crisis of sugarcane production in Java.
Dashun really had tens of thousands of Guiyi Army in a place where you can go to the Indian subcontinent with a bathtub.
And they were sincere returnees - the Dutch used whips, jackfruits, and harsh punishments to complete the resettlement of Chinese immigrants in Ceylon before Dashun went to Southeast Asia. Dashun did not need to bear the dissatisfaction of the people who were forced to relocate, but instead took on the reputation of saving the people from their misery.
And the rulers of Dashun, learning from history, knew too well how easy it was to enter when an empire collapsed and various Jiedushi fought each other.
Because the history books of Dashun recorded too many such stories - the collapse of central power, the chaos of Jiedushi and the vassal states, and the stories of looking for fathers everywhere.
So Liu Yu said that India's central power collapsed, the Jiedushi fought internally, and the vassal states were divided, and only three to five thousand elite soldiers were enough to gain great benefits.
Of course the emperor believed it, because it was written in history books, why not believe it?
However, why did the King of France believe the pie drawn by Dupleix?
The corpse of the Mughal Empire was still there, just died, and it seemed to be still warm. Why did the King of France believe that a few hundred people, more than a thousand people, could solve the legacy of this huge empire?
Does the French history book record the story of the rebellion of the Jiedushi and the vassal states after the collapse of the centralized power?
Dupleix said, if you give me twenty years, three thousand regular troops, and four battleships, I will give you an India that is seven or eight times larger than the French mainland, rich, and can collect 20 million taels of silver in taxes, salt taxes and land taxes every year.
Why does the King of France believe it?
Liu Yu said, if you run your business in North America well, dig ginseng, collect oriental pearls, and hunt mink fur, I will give you a trade volume of millions of taels every year.
Why doesn't the King of France believe it?
The moment Liu Yu sent Mi Ziming to visit Sweden to deliver prisoners of war, threatened the Netherlands via Batavia, and forced the Netherlands to emigrate Chinese to Ceylon.
Britain and France had already lost in terms of temple calculations.
Britain still has a chance to make up for it, that is, to give up India, replace the Netherlands, and cooperate with China and Britain to divide the world. The British did not choose, so it was impossible for Britain to get India.
France accepted Liu Yu's kindness and used ice as ballast to transport ginseng, pearls and sable fur to Dashun. Liu Yu asked Kang Budai to find a doctor and write an article to prove that American ginseng is cool and pure nonsense because it does not come from the hot South Sea, which crushed the Korean ginseng. France is also destined not to choose India, but America.
Now it seems.
More than 20 years ago, the terrifying prophecy of historical theology that Viscount Bolingbroke muttered - the agrarian and centralized Roman Empire that destroyed the Carthaginian maritime commercial civilization - was not France.
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