New Shun 1730

"Father once said that everything has its pros and cons. What do you think, if this road is adopted, how many benefits and how many disadvantages will it bring to the country and the people?"

There are some things that the prince feels it is unnecessary to relay to Liu Yu. And some things that the emperor and he said in private should not be spread to others.

But the prince does not think that Liu Yu does not understand. He estimates that among those who can understand these things in the court, those who know will know without saying it, and those who do not understand may not understand it even if they are said.

Regarding the impact on governance and suppression, the prince only feels that the person in front of him must understand it. Since he understands, there is no need to talk about it.

Liu Yu frowned and pondered the question for a while, then replied: "Your Highness asked this question... If we really want to talk about the pros and cons..."

"Except for the functions of relief, transporting troops, and famine relief, it is really hard to say."

"But if we only look at the functions of relief, transporting troops, and famine relief, the benefits are enough to build this road."

"As for the development of industry and commerce, this... well, it is beneficial to mining. Other than that, it is hard to say."

He did not want to avoid the topic of "the impact of the influx of goods from the Songsu first-development area on the traditional small peasant economy in the mainland."

The main thing is that this matter is really hard to say.

Industry and commerce are actually like that. Low cost and cheap raw materials are competitive.

Dashun's traditional textile industry, weaving, is extremely tenacious.

Cooperating with Dashun's India strategy, this will create a particularly interesting situation.

If the railway is really built, cotton and cotton yarn can be transported from India and then sold along the railway, Dashun's original cotton planting industry can basically be completely eliminated.

If everything was not normal, sea transportation had not risen so early, and the Songsu area of ​​Dashun had not completed the first development, if this railway was built under such circumstances, it would be possible that the industry and commerce of some cities along the line would have developed and transformed long ago.

For example, in Hebei, cotton can be grown, cloth can be woven, and sold to Inner Mongolia, Guandong and other places. This will certainly form a large industrial chain. Not to mention that it can enrich many people, but at least three or five counties will have a vibrant industry and commerce.

But the current situation is hard to say.

The cotton cloth market in the Northeast is Songsu's private land. Even if Hebei starts to grow cotton now, it can't compete with Songsu.

The Mongolian area is similar. Cotton cloth and the like go to Tianjin, Beijing, and then to Zhangjiakou.

So Hebei wants to develop the cotton textile industry, which is basically impossible.

After all, the premise of building this road is that Dashun has seized India. And seizing India means that Liu Yu will find ways to turn India into raw materials.

India's cotton output and cotton yarn output are in the hands of Songsu Capital Group.

Of course, the situation in Dashun is very special. Cloth is basically not very popular.

Because under the conditions of small peasant economy, the leisure labor time of rural women can be almost regarded as "free".

In theory, as long as the flower is cheaper than the cloth, they will definitely consider buying cotton and weaving cloth themselves, even if it is only a little cheaper. Because labor is worthless and it is impossible to increase output by being idle, they will try their best to buy cotton and cotton yarn even if there is only a meager profit. They are unlikely to buy cloth unless they have to.

Songsu area took the lead and controlled the raw materials. In addition, it has been firmly grasping the private land of the two markets of Northeast China and Mongolia in recent years.

Therefore, under this situation, Liu Yu feels that it is difficult for Hebei area to develop the textile industry.

Further down in Henan... As for cash crops, it is actually not bad. Planting some sesame and soybeans can almost be sold.

After crossing the Yellow River, if you really reach Hankou and Jianghan area, it is hard to say.

The key lies in the extent of Songsu Capital Group's robbery in India.

As long as the price of cotton is lower than that in Hankou, it is wishful thinking to grow cotton in Hankou.

Historically, the cotton planting industry in Hankou had a brief development, but the premise of this development was that India was a British colony and Britain and Europe were in a stage of rapid industrialization, which made the price of cotton rise day by day, which led to the development of cotton planting in Hankou.

The problem is that in Liu Yu's view, even if the group of people in the Nanyang Protectorate of Dashun were all stupid overnight, it would be a foregone conclusion that India would be taken.

In this case, the price of cotton, at least in China, would not be expensive at all.

Since railways and locomotives can be built, the distance to steamships is actually closer. The "distance" between Hankou and Songsu will be shortened a lot.

In this case, is it more cost-effective to buy cotton yarn from Songsu and build a textile factory in Hankou?

Or is it more cost-effective to directly build a textile factory in Songsu and sell it to Hankou?

This is not a market issue, but a question of how local officials view it.

In other words, is it possible for Dashun to have domestic tariffs in the future?

What is the attitude of the imperial government?

Is it to support a unified market across the country?

Or to maintain local tariffs and safeguard local interests?

But to elaborate on whether this railway can promote the development of commodity economy along the route, it can actually be. The key here is how the emperor views the issue of cash crops.

This statement is called: In order to prevent the people from not growing food, but growing cash crops such as cotton, sesame, and tobacco, which may lead to food shortages. Therefore, the tariff on raw materials is lifted, allowing Indian cotton and cotton yarn to be dumped inwards, impacting the country's cotton planting industry.

In the emperor's view, is it right?

Going a little deeper, domestic tariffs were imposed on cloth produced in Songsu, while Indian cotton and cotton yarn from Songsu were exempted from tariffs and entered Hankou in large quantities and were transported along the Yangtze River and this railway.

Right?

This is the irreconcilable contradiction between the emerging class and the emperor.

Old Ma said that the real task of the bourgeoisie is to establish a world market (at least an outline) and production based on this market.

So, is the inland part of the world?

If it is, the bourgeoisie in Songsu would not want inland tariffs.

They would try to eliminate the textile industry in Hankou, which was just starting out, and use their cloth to completely defeat the cotton textile industry in the Jianghan area and pull it into their market.

This is obvious.

Because whether it is competing for capital, gold and silver, raw material control, or starting first, the Jianghan area is definitely not as good as the "silver banknote" area of ​​Dashun.

On the other hand, Dashun's bizarre economic structure and labor prices that exceed the limit of small farmers... make Liu Yu's envisioned "cotton yarn mechanization" the kind of industrialization that has the least impact on Dashun's small farmers.

A large amount of cotton and cotton yarn entered the Jianghan area, and the Jianghan area was definitely welcome. Because labor is too worthless, this is not a matter of choice.

It is not that I earn 20 yuan by doing this and 10 yuan by doing that, so I do 20 yuan.

Rather, if I don’t weave cloth, what should I do? The land is so small that even if you lick it with your tongue, you can’t lick out an extra two kilograms per mu. Large-scale water conservancy projects are not something that small farmers can do. So buy some cotton yarn and make it into cloth yourself. As long as it is cheaper than buying cloth directly, it’s fine; if you can sell it, it’s even better.

So, if we go deeper into this matter, that is to say: it’s not impossible to levy domestic tariffs on cloth; then, can Songsu’s capital enter the mainland?

If it can, can it buy and hoard land?

With Dashun’s organization and ruling level, can it achieve “only allowing factories to open, not allowing land to buy”?

If the land system problem is not solved, there will be troubles here.

If not, doesn’t this encourage local division and confrontation and the emergence of local forces?

Once local forces emerge, they will inevitably think about defending the provincial boundaries to prevent foreign goods from impacting them. When it comes to opening up, it will most likely be a bloody storm, and local forces may have to go it alone.

Liu Yu did not look down on the prince. In fact, the prince could not solve any of these problems.

The current situation of Dashun is that primitive accumulation is no problem, technology is available, and the world market and raw material production areas are stable.

The problem of semi-feudalism and semi-colonialism is the compradorization of national capital, a group of waste, weak and insufficient.

But this thing has enough power, which does not mean a smooth transition and no damage to the transformation.

On the other hand, if this thing has enough power, doesn’t it mean that the destruction of the small peasant economy is accelerated?

In the final analysis, it is still these small peasants of about 200 to 300 million people. They are human beings and have a strong tradition of resistance.

Can we tell them that for the development of great capitalism, you should starve to death obediently?

It is possible to say that, but it is normal for others to chop wood for weapons and turn around to go to the nearby Dabie Mountains.

The logic here is that in the semi-feudal colonial state, national capital is fragile and they cannot bear the responsibility; but for small farmers and tenants, what is the difference?

So Liu Yu certainly supports the domestic tariff exemption, and he is very eager to impact the countryside to the point of general bankruptcy and comprehensive impoverishment of small landlords. Force out a radical change.

The more severe the pressure, the deeper the monetization of taxation, and the more cheap goods impact, the higher the rent for growing grain will be.

In Songsu, the tenants can't stand it and generally withdraw from the tenancy. Either work, or go to Kanto and Nanyang as contract servants. One province, there are salt taxes in various provinces, Jiangxi porcelain foreign trade silver, Fujian tea foreign trade silver, silk foreign trade silver, etc., and it is close to the sea, so this can be solved.

In the interior, there is no room for labor, and they can't afford to go to Nanyang or Guandong.

Theoretically, the Dashun court can also solve this problem in theory. According to the population of one hundred thousand people per year, the per capita land of the self-cultivating farmers is guaranteed to be 30 to 40 mu, which will definitely be easier to transform.

With 30 to 40 mu of land per capita, they will not go bankrupt and can survive. The transformation is very simple, and the internal market can be expanded quickly to promote the development of industry and commerce.

The reality is... not so much.

Or, eliminate landlords, abolish land rent, and carry out equal distribution of land. Ensure that each farmer has a certain amount of land. In this case, the transformation can also be completed and the goal of industrialization can be clarified.

But Liu Yu looked at the prince and felt that these two things... the prince really couldn't do it.

The prince asked him what he thought of this railway, and Liu Yu could only say that it was all good, without any disadvantages.

You see, it not only ensures the sale of cash crops, cotton raw materials, etc. along the line, but also makes the people "focus on the basics" and not grow these cash crops, so as not to have enough food.

It can also ensure that except for famine, relief can be provided, which is beneficial to the rule of the court.

Anyway, you can't see the big problems and can't solve them.