New Shun 1730

It is said that the emperor's heart is unpredictable, and the current situation is the best example.

Liu Yu could not ask the emperor, hey, are you going to solve the Yellow River problem before you die?

After all, for the emperor, the Yellow River itself cannot threaten the imperial rule. The real threat is the "people" after the Yellow River bursts.

The emperor feels that there may be no way to solve the problem of people, so he may think about getting rid of people.

It is normal for feudal emperors to slaughter people, just like slaughtering pigs and dogs. It is just a variant of Kusanagi.

Rational judgment, once combined with the emperor, who should not exist in the rational era, it is easy to produce extremely terrible consequences.

In the chaotic era of the late Ming Dynasty, farmers, untouchables, miners, etc., used violence to leave a very deep impression on Dashun. Therefore, the emperor of Dashun will try his best to maintain the survival of small farmers; but once he feels that it may not be maintained, it is very likely to strangle it in the cradle.

This is not impossible, but very likely.

At the beginning, when Liu Yu heard the emperor suddenly talk about the Luntai Edict, he must have been mocking and complaining in his heart.

He mocked in his heart that the emperor's brain was at best the kind of thing that didn't talk about productivity and production relations, and expected a few superhuman consciences to come up with something like Zero Requiem. Before his death, he issued a Luntai Edict to ease the domestic annexation problem and let the prince be a "good emperor."

This is of course to be mocked.

But later, the more Liu Yu listened, the more he felt that it tasted wrong.

Everything is afraid of comparison. When it tasted more and more wrong, Liu Yu felt that this method similar to "flooding the fields and changing rice to mulberry" was not as good as the idea he mocked at the beginning.

When doing things, you must calculate the cost.

And when doing things, you are afraid of calculating the cost.

The cost is invested for the purpose.

The key is, what is the emperor's purpose?

Is the emperor's purpose a better life for the people? Or a stable rule of imperial power?

Most of the time, the two seem to be no different in appearance, but once faced with a major choice, the essence will be immediately revealed.

Even if we do not consider the rational factor of productivity, and only consider the abstract purpose of the people better maintaining the lives of small farmers, it is worthwhile to invest hundreds of millions of taels of silver.

But if we only consider the stable rule of the imperial power, in fact... there is a lower-cost solution.

The emergence of railways did enhance the power of the emperor's rule. And it shaped another feasible plan for the emperor.

Once the railway from Beijing to Hankou is roughly completed; and then the railway from Shanghai to Xuzhou and then to northern Anhui and Henan. In fact, the Yellow River flood area - the Yellow River flood area of ​​Dashun is mostly the lower reaches of the Yellow River in later generations, rather than the original concept of the Yellow River flood area after Huayuankou in history - is already a dead land surrounded on all sides.

According to Liu Yu's idea of ​​spending money to immigrate, this would require at least 300 to 500 million taels, or even more money, to solve it. After all, it involves tens of millions of acres of arable land. Digging the Yellow River channel must be the best arable area, because the Yellow River cannot cross mountains and climb slopes, and water flows to lower places.

And it must be mixed with resistance, chaos, and even if it is done, it may not succeed.

If the emperor really wants to do something anti-human, then we can only say that the cost is indeed greatly reduced.

When the water rushes, one wave of people will die and one wave of people will be killed. The new Yellow River channel in the north is a ravine, the railway in the west is a wall, the wealthy gentry in the south prevents the victims from moving south as loyalty, and the sea in the east is a weak water.

At that time, not only will the cost of migration be greatly reduced, but there will also be less resentment about migration, and the land can be redistributed by the way.

It is even possible that after a large number of people are relocated, the equal-field system of the middle Tang Dynasty will be implemented in the Yellow River flood area to build a new fortress of imperial power and greatly enhance the power of imperial power.

Moreover, after the emergence of railways and the financial situation of Dashun, this idea is really feasible...

Moreover, no matter the difficulty or the damage to the stability of the world structure, it is much simpler and has a much smaller impact than the Luntai edict that Liu Yu thought the emperor was going to do at the beginning.

Although I don’t know if the emperor really thinks so, listening to what the emperor said, Liu Yu always feels that something is wrong and is really panicked.

Therefore, Liu Yu's words surprised the emperor.

Judging from Liu Yu's methods in Funing, northern Jiangsu and other places, Liu Yu is a radical reformer.

The emperor never expected that Liu Yu would come up with a relatively conservative and gentle method.

Although this internal conservatism and moderation are based on radical external expansion.

To say it is gentle, it goes without saying that it is indeed gentle.

To say it is conservative, because Liu Yu's idea completely avoids the direction of changing the land system that may flood the Yellow River and whether the private ownership of land should be changed. Moreover, it is obviously a plan to relocate people based on maintaining all existing systems.

The emperor believes that the group of people in the Privy Council headed by Liu Yu have a judgment on the outside world. There are a group of people who know the outside world best in Dashun.

And since Liu Yu said that many problems can be solved within five years, the emperor, based on his previous trust, also believes that it is quite possible that fiscal revenue will double in five years.

It's just that Liu Yu directly led the question to the Yellow River issue, which surprised the emperor.

Regardless of what the emperor was thinking, the current problem of the Yellow River is like a pool of shit. Who knows when it might explode, and whoever is close to it will get stuck with it.

On the edge of temples and in the depths of rivers and lakes, those who clamored to solve the Yellow River problem did not have the prestige or the height to do so, so they could only shout in vain.

The temple is so high, who dares to resist this? Who wants to fight this?

But the emperor did not directly answer Huang He's question, but asked: "In my opinion, this incident in India and Europe is a must-win battle? It has reached a point where we need to consider defeat, and everything must be considered in the direction of winning." In the future?"

Liu Yu took a deep breath and said solemnly as never before: "Back to your majesty, I used to be naughty and won your majesty's favor. When the army was reformed, I said that it is necessary to have incompetent generals and well-controlled troops. Success cannot be taken lightly. Failure."

"Furthermore, I have been talking about matters in Southeast Asia and India since I organized and trained the navy. I have been planning for this matter for more than twenty years."

"During this period, I went to Southeast Asia, moved to Ceylon, rebelled against the Netherlands, became a Rakshasa, and allied with France, all because of this. After the Austrian Succession War, I said that the conflicts between the European countries were not resolved, but only a truce that no one could win. , there will be a fight sooner or later. The Privy Council has been waiting for this opportunity."

"How many fleets and ships does the British have, the situation in the colonies, public sentiment...the British finances, interest rates, tariffs...France's choices on the Caribbean and Indian issues...etc., the Privy Council collected a lot of materials. "

"The Privy Council only decides the strategy, whether to fight or not is up to Your Majesty. But the battle on the front line is up to the soldiers."

"The soldiers of this dynasty are well-trained and well-trained. If one fights one against one, they can win 60% of the time. But in India, if ten fight against one, I don't know how to fail."

"As for participating in the Battle of Europa, as long as the navy is dispatched to disrupt its trade and the naval war with France continues, Britain will definitely lose."

"So, I am in the Privy Council, and I just read books and have nothing to do all day long. As long as your Majesty's decree remains unchanged and the fight continues, whoever sits in the Privy Council will have the same result."

"No one is willing to touch the Yellow River matter... I, please, resign from the Privy Council, use the title of Duke, act expediently, and leave Yanzhou to control Yu Gong."

The words stop here.

But that's not all.

Even though the emperor was full of magic tricks and had seen many battles between the imperial court and the central government in his life, he was still at a loss by Liu Yu's words.

Is Liu Yu looking for death? Don’t want to live anymore? Crazy? Or...or are you so desperate that you want to commit suicide?

For a time, all kinds of thoughts were spinning rapidly in the emperor's mind, and he had no idea how to respond to Liu Yu's words.

Even though he has been emperor for so many years, even though he has experienced twenty years of struggle between reform and conservatism.

Obviously he never thought that any minister would actually say these words.

The implication of these words... is that Liu Yu requested to leave Yanzhou to take charge of the Yellow River affairs.

And if you do this, you will die.

Whether it is political, popular, or in any direction, death is inevitable.

In other words, except for the emperor who did this, anyone else who did this was seeking death.

Including the prince.

In any reform in the past, some people will always gain and some will suffer.

Even Wang Anshi's reform, which has been scolded for hundreds of years, still has a mixed reputation, and there is also a saying that "ruling the world with scholar-bureaucrats, not with the common people".

But in this case, there was only infamy.

In the middle of the court, it is almost inevitable that "when the sheep is cooked, it rains".

Among the people...

If a flood occurs and the Yellow River has burst, tens of millions of people will be flooded and millions of people will have no food or clothing. At this time, the emperor vigorously provided disaster relief and officials went all out, both of which gained a reputation through the ages.

But now, it hasn't happened yet.

Not to mention the various fragmented and hierarchical impacts of river changes.

For example, the impact on business, the salt industry, agriculture, etc.

Just speaking in the most general terms.

After four or five hundred years of good life, there was never the risk of the Yellow River flooding, nor did we have to bear the misery of repairing the Yellow River embankment, let alone worry about the Yellow River bursting...

But some people want to divert the Yellow River to Shandong.

Any common people in Shandong would like to sleep on their skin and eat their flesh.

Is the Yellow River a good thing?

At least in the eyes of the people at this time, the Yellow River meant disaster, not fertile Yellow River water.

It means going out to build the Yellow River embankment.

This means that we are facing the danger of the Yellow River overflowing - basically, once a year.

It means that the ancestral graves will be submerged, the only family property will be submerged, and I will have to leave my hometown.

Who allowed the Yellow River to flow through Shandong? Except for God's force majeure, at this time... no one would write any words. They would only erect a kneeling statue and kneel on the embankment of the Yellow River.

As for Liu Yu's reputation in Shandong... eliminate the coastal areas of Laizhou and Dengzhou that benefited. Let's put it this way, along the canal, I don't know how many people scolded me.

Liu Yu not only destroyed Huai'an and Yangzhou.

Just give a random example, Linqing City. Before the canal and rice reform, there were only 80,000 people left in the city with a population of 200,000 in just ten years.

Linqingguan was once famous, it was once a big city in the forefront of Shandong, and it was once the place with the cheapest food prices in Shandong. Because of the reform, a poem like this appeared:

Linqing official road, there is a hungry woman picking willows.

Every year there is drought and the crops are destroyed, and the guest rice only costs one thousand dollars.

If there is rice willow, it will be used as glutinous rice, but if there is no rice willow, it will be used as mince.

The husband lost fiber and died of illness, and the woman fed her old aunt and nursed her baby.

The spring breeze is fluttering and the willows are already deep, and the old branches and leaves hurt people's hearts.

There are at least 80,000 people left in Linqing, and at the very least there is still the foundation of a state city and prefecture.

And another important water transport town, Zhang Qiu...

The last paragraph of "Zhang Qiuzhi" reads like this:

In the past, it was an important water transport town. It was connected to the city by the river, with Jiwen in its lap, controlled by Haidai, the throat of tribute, and important places in the north and south. Merchants from five directions gathered together, and the three cities were numerous. Since the establishment of the Republic of China, the shipping industry has been in decline and then withering away, just like the swift wind sweeping away autumn leaves. In the past twenty years, the city outline has changed but the scenery has changed.

Fu Zhiye is also the history of one county and one town. Zhang Qiu has no name as a county and is not a county, but it has its history. It can be said to be prosperous!

After traveling by sea, Zhang Qiu has no history. This is Zhang Qiu's final work.

Leng Shengsheng brought a prosperous town to despair, causing the gentry to write the words "Zhang Qiuzhi's last words" as Zhang Qiuzhi's last words.

The remaining 80,000 people in Linqing are because water transportation was abolished, but the canal can still be used, and some trade can still be done.

But that's all.

Once the Yellow River passes through Shandong again, the few remaining canal cities that can still sustain it will all die. Of the 80,000 people in Linqing, there may only be 30,000 left.

Of course, it cannot be said that these things are all to blame on Liu Yuxing Shipping, but are caused by many factors.

The first point is that in the previous Shandong Water Transport District, all configurations and water conservancy projects were not centered around irrigation and the development of agricultural production.

However, although many Caozhou counties in Shandong are close to canals, agricultural water conservancy resources are extremely scarce. The only Wen and Si waters and Tai, Yi and Teng springs are also included in the water transportation system.

Local states and counties do not have the right to use these rivers or springs without sufficient water supply for the canals.

This problem has frequently become a problem since the mid-Ming Dynasty.

Protecting water transport was the first priority, and for this reason they even tacitly allowed the Yellow River to burst southward. The rivers along the way must replenish water for canal transportation.

And the time of water transportation basically coincides with the irrigation period - when the rainy season comes in summer, there will be no shortage of water, but the water in the canals is also large, and it has to be drained out - this leads to the need for water in dry days. When there is no need for water, it will be discharged outside.

It sounds like Liu Yu's maritime transportation has solved the water transportation problem, which should be a good thing.

But the problem is that over hundreds of years, frequent water conservancy projects were built around water transportation, which has basically destroyed the original irrigation system.

The industry and commerce brought by water transportation itself supported a certain population. Moreover, raising rice can stabilize rice prices.

Abolition of water transportation is a systematic project, because "there is no way to control the Yellow River without abolishing the canal" is an important reason for the abolition of water transportation.

Even if the problem of the Yellow River's possible breach is not solved.

Let’s just talk about the anti-agricultural nature of many water conservancy projects brought about by previous canal transportation. These pitfalls accumulated over hundreds of years are not to be solved all at once by abolishing the canal.

This is one aspect.

On the other hand, when the canal was abolished, a large number of people lost their jobs.

In itself, the Canal Zone is an important place for the spread of sects such as Wenxiang Sect, White Lotus Sect, and Qinglian Sect. Various variants emerge in endlessly.

After the canal was abandoned, at least six or seven large-scale uprisings occurred in northwest and southwest Shandong.

War, uprising, fighting, encirclement and suppression, this is another wave of destruction.

Finally, there are some decisive and fundamental factors.

Except for the coastal Leiden area, which has developed relatively well in recent years, Shandong controls trade with North Korea, naval bases, and the rise of new learning, and can also enter Guandong by sea. If these two areas are eliminated, Shandong will have a total of There are about 75 million acres of cultivated land.

After the abolition of the poll tax, or putting the poll tax in the land can only be regarded as a back-and-forth and not abolition, it is no longer necessary to hide the population.

After statistics, Shandong's population has exceeded 22 million.

22 million people, 75 million acres of cultivated land - according to statistics in the 1930s, the rate of multiple cropping, intercropping, and three crops in two years in southwestern Shandong and northwestern Shandong was only 30% - In fact, Shandong has already seen a large number of people. Lack of land is a big problem.

The productivity level at this time is just like this.

Previous large-scale water conservancy projects were all centered around canals, water transportation, and salt transportation.

What is the average yield per mu? Including the multiple planting rate, in fact, it is only 200 kilograms, maybe even 170 kilograms.

There are three and a half acres of land per capita. If equalization of land is truly achieved and the reality that six counties are affected by disasters on average every year is eliminated, the average per capita would be 600 kilograms of grain.

It sounds like it's okay.

But the reality is that the land is not evenly distributed, and the "average grain share" cannot really be calculated. It cannot be averaged.

The reality is not without disasters.

The reality is that there are no corrupt officials.

The reality is that there are no tenants who have to pay rent.

The reality is that businessmen do not take advantage of the tax payment period to suppress food prices.

People in later generations ate a lot of fat, eggs, milk, and meat. They felt that one pound of food a day was enough.

In these days, working people, if you give them two kilograms of grain a day, they will only be half full.

Besides, are all these lands used to grow food?

Do you grow cash crops? A cotton grower? Growing peanuts? Planting dates? Actually, there are quite a few.

Without land, we have to rush to places that were originally unsuitable for farming, and this further damages the already fragile ecological structure, causing frequent droughts and floods.

In addition, after some statistical data in Shandong, excluding such weird cities as Qingdao and Weihai, the male-female ratio in these weird cities reached 180 to 100, but it is normal, proving that there are many people going to work. After excluding them, the male-female ratio in many places has also reached 110 to 100, or even 130 to 100.

All these factors combined have contributed to many problems.

But all these problems are not as good as the implication raised by Liu Yu now.

He wants the Yellow River to flow through Shandong!

This is equivalent to throwing charcoal directly into the gunpowder barrel.

For the vast majority of people, the Yellow River means disaster at the current level of productivity.

No province is willing to let the Yellow River pass through its doorstep.

No one is willing to let the Yellow River pass through the river section from Kaifeng.

If it is not dry, will the Yellow River not burst?

Of course not.

If it is not dry, the Yellow River will burst and there will be no river channel. The south has been raised too high for 600 years, and it is impossible to go to the south.

The Yellow River, which has no river channel, has to flood and find its own river channel. This process may take five or ten years.

It can even be said that it can directly turn Shandong's population into negative growth.

But it is like the story of "helium flash" in later generations.

When the Yellow River bursts, it is a good deed to provide disaster relief.

And before the Yellow River bursts, it is evil to go to the Yellow River and build a river channel in an uninhabited area.

The emperor can do this, but the emperor does not want to do it.

Because as long as the emperor is not stupid, he will not do this. Not only is the cost high, but the benefits are low.

It is far better than solving it after the Yellow River bursts, the cost is high and the benefits are low.

If the ministers want to do it, as long as there are parties and factions in the court, no one will do it.

This is equivalent to smearing shit on themselves.

The official is too small to do it.

This is not a simple matter, but a major event involving three provinces and tens of millions of people.

It is also necessary to systematically consider a series of matters such as salt transportation, cities, resettlement, suppression, industry and commerce, water conservancy projects, irrigation, agriculture, etc.

He was too high up to do it.

Whoever did this would be infamous for eternity.

The prince was very smart. He wanted to do something, so he chose Hankou. Because if the prince dared to do this, he would probably be finished as a prince.

Liu Yu did not say he would do it, but he said he was bored in the Privy Council, and the wars against India and Europe had already been decided. The implication was obvious.

That's why the emperor was surprised.

He was not surprised about anything else, but why Liu Yu did this?

After removing the answer that he did it for the people, the emperor could only think that Liu Yu was desperate and wanted to commit political suicide, or was trapped in the sorrow of reincarnation and could not get out.

It was even more like a broken jar move: I can't live anyway, so I might as well do something before I die.

At least, that's what the emperor thought.

But in fact, apart from the most basic reasons, Liu Yu just felt that when the railway was built and the situation of Dashun was underway, the peasant uprisings and people's resistance in Shandong were in vain, and there was no possibility of disturbing the court and directly collapsing the government as the forerunners of the king.

Because of the changes in the canal, grain tax, and grain transport, this place can no longer have a significant impact.

In this case, why should people sacrifice in vain in the future?

If you don't want to sacrifice in vain, why not take the opportunity to do something else besides not letting people sacrifice in vain, and continue to take the opportunity to lay the economic foundation for the future?

As for the idea of ​​seeking death, breaking the pot, and committing suicide out of anger, it really has nothing to do with Liu Yu.