New Shun 1730

Benjamin Franklin thought so.

He is indeed inclined to reason and science, there is no doubt about this.

Even though his parents were Puritans, he has always advocated the Puritan spirit. But in fact, he and Newton are almost the same. They are both believers in "unitarian" or "pan-theism" that are anti-Trinitarian in their hearts. Of course, anyone who opposes the Trinity in these days is breaking the law. Historically, it was not until the year when Siemens built the generator that Britain legally acquitted those who opposed the Trinity.

However, precisely because he is inclined towards rationality and science, economics is a new thing after all, so the more confident people are these days, the easier it is for them to have a little knowledge and have wrong ideas.

Franklin read The Wealth of Nations 2.0 and thought it made sense.

But in fact, this kind of truth makes sense. When encountering specific problems, it is often easy to think that you only have a partial understanding of it, which makes you unable to think of deeper content.

Franklin went to Ireland and saw the decline of Ireland due to the destruction of British mercantilist policies, so he believed that everything would be fine as long as there was free trade.

He feels that the current situation in North America is completely trapped by Britain's mercantilist policies, so as long as Britain and the United States engage in free trade, North America will definitely flourish given its current situation.

However, this may not be the case.

Economics is chaotic and has too many variables.

At this time, under the British mercantilism system, as well as the British naval superiority navigation regulations and tariff issues that were strictly investigated in the United Kingdom for more than a hundred years, and in the Chadian environment of North America, North America had the "advantage" of free trade at this time. Will it continue into the environment after the old system is destroyed?

If the conditions in the past have changed, will the advantages of the past still be the advantages of the future?

Take the simplest example.

Take, for example, the rum-making industry in New England.

Now, New England is definitely dissatisfied with the 1933 Sugar Tax Act because they feel that it has increased the cost of making rum.

So, without the Sugar Tax Act, their lives must have been wonderful.

The problem is that thinking this way is obviously a desperate idea.

Change only one of the past conditions and draw a conclusion.

However, things are universally connected.

Changing just one of the past conditions can actually cause more variables to change.

For example, everyone knows that triangle trade makes money.

The rum of New England developed through the triangular trade.

Considering only the variable "Sugar Tax Law", it seems that as long as the honey law is abolished, their rum competitiveness will continue to maintain an advantage.

but.

Because of climate factors such as ocean currents and monsoons, "formal" or "standardized" triangular trade is triangular.

From Europe, loading cloth, wine, etc., to West Africa, in exchange for slaves, is called "departure".

Carrying slaves from West Africa to Caribbean sugar islands, plantations in southern North America, etc., selling slaves in exchange for money and raw materials, this is called "medium journey".

Carrying raw materials, or gold and silver from Central and South America, from North America to Europe to sell them and exchange them for handicrafts. This is called the "return journey".

This "standard" triangular trade is assisted by monsoons and ocean currents throughout the entire process, and it can be said to be the most reasonable route in the entire process.

The rum in New England belongs to the "triangular trade" on a large scale.

However, it is not a "standard" triangular trade.

Because, his route could only be to fill up with rum in Boston, go to West Africa and sell it for slaves, transport the slaves to the French Sugar Island, sell the slaves for cheap molasses, and then transport the molasses to New England to continue making wine. .

Considering only one variable and not considering the universal connection of things, it is easy to mechanically and mechanically draw a conclusion: As long as the Molasses Act is outlawed, the advantage of New England rum will continue to expand.

In fact, this is a seriously wrong idea.

And it is a textbook-like mechanical, carving a boat and seeking a sword type of thinking - it is the same thinking mode as in history, after Zheng Keshuang's defeat, the Chinese merchants who went to Ryukyu carried excess goods and ended up unable to sell them.

Because, first of all, we need to make sure that rum is a high-tech industry?

no.

The reason why the French don't make rum is because France wants to protect its millions of grape workers; the reason why Prussia doesn't make rum is because the Prussian Junkers estate can't grow sugar cane and can only grow potatoes, so Prussia can only Roasted potato and sweet potato.

So, this kind of non-high-tech industry is nothing more than raw material cost and labor cost.

So, what is the reason why the British rum industry is not as good as New England's in the triangular trade?

It's very simple, because... the tax inspections and smuggling inspections in the UK are much stricter and more comprehensive than the tax inspections and smuggling inspections in North America.

Historically, the collapse of the New England rum industry stemmed from the stricter new sugar tax laws that outlawed jury trials in North America and the customs tax.

So, the question is, does West Africa no longer want rum?

Obviously, no, still.

So the collapse of the rum industry in New England was essentially "due to the increased cost of raw materials caused by strict crackdowns on smuggling, which caused them to lose their price advantage and lose in market competition."

Therefore, France does not make rum, Prussia does not make rum, Russia cannot make rum, the manufacturing industry in the Netherlands ended fifty years ago, and the handicraft industry in Spain is even more difficult to describe...

And it’s not like West Africa doesn’t want rum.

So, who's grabbing New England's share?

Obviously, England, Scotland, Ireland.

Because in the past, the cost of tax evasion was high in the UK, so the cost of raw materials was higher than in New England.

After the new sugar tax law, the cost of raw materials in the UK has become equal to that in New England, while the labor price in the UK is much lower than in New England.

At the same time, by taking the "standardized" triangular trade route, shipping costs are lower, capital turnover cycles are shorter, and capital profitability is higher.

So, as soon as the new sugar tax law came out, anti-smuggling was a little stricter, and customs made a little effort, the rum industry in New England died suddenly.

Well, the situation is the same now.

If free trade is really implemented and the sugar tax is really abolished in the UK, how can the rum industry in New England compete with the UK mainland?

In other words, New England rum merchants all believe that their success stems from this reason, that reason, working harder, being more talented...etc., etc.

In fact, their success stems from the strict tax inspections in the UK and the non-existence of tax inspections in North America. As a result, the price of molasses in the UK is higher than that in New England.

That's all.

As the saying goes, the butt determines the head.

Wherever you sit, your buttocks must not separate from your head.

Where does the smuggler's ass sit?

Smugglers must understand one thing - the country's mercantilism and tariff protection are beneficial to smugglers.

Smugglers will definitely oppose free trade.

The cost of raw materials caused by smuggling is higher than that of normal taxable areas, and free trade must also be opposed.

They clearly have the advantage of being smugglers and those who evaded tariffs resulting in lower costs, but they think that tariffs have harmed their interests. This is a typical brain-hip separation.

It is very ridiculous to not know your true advantages, but to interpret the advantages caused by others paying taxes and not paying taxes as yourself to work harder and be more talented... This is very ridiculous.

And when it comes to carving a boat and seeking a sword, that's what it's all about.

Again, the "Molasses Act" of 1933 was not even able to collect the tax in North America. On the contrary, the British side was so powerful in anti-smuggling because it was home after all. So in 1933, the "Molasses Act" was in name only in North America, but it was worthy of its name in the UK. Did the Molasses Act benefit the New England rum industry? Or harmful to the New England rum industry?

But now, Dashun is shouting "free trade."

Liu Yu borrowed the words of the British and came up with "The Wealth of Nations 2.0".

Liu Yu read Lao Ma's book. Lao Ma said that one of the chronic problems of colonization was the inability to separate labor from the means of production in the short term, resulting in a small number of wage workers and high prices. Developing capitalism is very difficult until the population reaches a certain threshold.

The United Kingdom, through the enclosure movement, has completed the separation of production means and labor.

If we really engage in free trade, North America cannot defeat the United Kingdom.

This is a matter of principle.

Specific to small principles and specific details.

The so-called "free trade" that Dashun wants to engage in is to build the Netherlands into Europe's "financial center", "logistics center", "shipping center", and "the East-West trade customs port in Europe."

The share of industrial products in the triangular trade is cotton cloth, which accounts for more than 60%.

So, if free trade is really implemented, England can also buy low-priced tariff-free molasses. England has also collapsed a large number of local industries due to Dashun's trade order, creating a large number of potential wage workers. Rum is not As for high-tech industries, the UK’s own technology accumulation is also very strong.

So, obviously, why doesn't the rum industry move to Liverpool, which is "closer to the coal areas, has more convenient transportation after the canal is built, has a large potential wage labor population, has a developed shipping industry foundation, and is the central distribution center of the slave trade"? ?

Industrial products such as cotton cloth were refreshed in the Netherlands.

So, what reason do the merchants of Liverpool have for not completely converting New England to New England because it is closer to the Netherlands, the local rum is cheaper, and it is at the starting point of the "standard" triangular trade route with ocean currents and monsoon advantages? Is the rum industry overcrowded?

Therefore, Franklin's rationality and science have become a subtle shortcoming here.

It's very, very good to be rational and scientific.

But be afraid, be afraid, talk about rationality, talk about science, talk about cutting a boat to find a sword, talk about only considering a single variable, talk about these concepts that there is no universal connection between things.

I think I am thinking about the dynamic world.

In fact, what he is thinking about is a static world. And in a static world, create a variable, but think that other things will not change.

This is this time. For Dashun, the British side asked Franklin to communicate the biggest advantage of North America - Franklin worshiped reason and science, but did not understand what capitalism was. His perspective was too static and he lacked the perspective of development. Problem methodology.

Of course, it would not be good if he does not follow rationality and science.

…………

On the east coast, Franklin was busy building the North American regime at the second Philadelphia Conference in accordance with the spirit of The Wealth of Nations 2.0 and the Albany Conference.

On the west coast, under the advice of a group of people from the Dashun New School who basically understood what Lao Ma said about "how capitalism came about" but could not know "how capitalism disappeared", Dashun had begun to lay the foundation for systematic immigration to the west coast of America.

To be precise, the construction of this foundation did not start now.

It started many, many years ago when Liu Yu participated in the border war between Dashun and Luocha.

First there was the war between Dashun and Luocha.

Then the Whale Sea Company, which specialized in fur profits, was established.

After the demarcation of the border, fur became popular in the trade with Luocha.

The extremely high profits of sea otter skin (sea dragon skin) and the popularity of sea dragon skin prompted the Whale Sea Company to constantly look for fur.

Relying on the handicraft advantages of Dashun, in exchange, to fight against the poor robbery of Luocha country and expel Luocha fur merchants from the Whale Sea.

The Whale Sea Company gained primitive accumulation, and the rise of industries such as soap and glycerin in Dashun prompted the Whale Sea Company to not only demand fur, but also extremely low animal fats.

The pursuit of sea otter skins finally crossed Asia, because there was basically no fur in Asia, and began to purchase fur in America to expand profits.

Because high-quality furs and valuable fats are all in the bitter cold land of the north, the Whale Sea Company urgently needs food, fruits to prevent scurvy, and an excellent warm place for winter camps.

The forced relocation of people and the forced collection of food in the form of reclamation failed in some strongholds on the west coast. A large number of farmers ran away, proving that the "fugitive slave law" and "tenant farming system" are not feasible in places with vast land and sparse population.

This prompted the Whale Sea Company to turn to Honolulu, hoping to use the population of Honolulu to provide them with the food and logistics supplies needed for development, and at the same time as a wintering place.

The infiltration of Honolulu and the introduction of production tools and organizational techniques gave Dashun a transit station and supply station for the development of the west coast.

The previous twenty years of fur trading on the west coast also provided a fairly good communication environment for Dashun, and also cultivated a group of translators who could communicate with the natives of the west coast.

The cowpox relay with children as petri dishes after the smallpox epidemic also created a very good image for Dashun. The deep reason for the emergence of this relay was the developed handicraft industry created by the hardworking people of Dashun, which made Jinghai Company calculate that exchanging goods for furs would be more profitable than catching or robbing them.

Historically, the Russian Cossacks wanted to trade but could not, so they could only rely on robbing, or relying on the Cossackization of villages and communities to recruit people to join the group, and they created a bunch of "animist Cossacks" and "shaman Cossacks" who could not even draw a cross.

The conditions on the Dashun side were obviously much better.

So far, the foundation of the past twenty or thirty years has been laid, and now Dashun has also started the Yellow River New Waterway Project. This project is definitely a super-large project at this time, and it may take ten, twenty or even thirty years to complete intermittently.

All this finally made it possible for Dashun to start the West Coast colonization plan.

And the "fuse" of the whole plan.

It can only be the "gold rush".

The task of the fuse is just to start the event.

And the whole West Coast immigration plan, in fact, is based on the "orthodox colonial technique" criticized by Lao Ma.

In short, the wasteland on the West Coast is directly nationalized.

Through administrative orders, the price of land is artificially distorted. If it is not distorted, the land on the West Coast, as of now, no one wants 1,000 hectares of land for one tael of silver.

Starting from the mining industry, gold, silver and copper mines, through artificially distorted land prices, every penniless person who goes to the West Coast - anyone who has two hectares of land outside Luoyang City will never go to the West Coast to work - must pay enough labor to exchange for currency, so as to buy a piece of land of their own.

And the money for buying land goes into the "immigration fund", thus forming a relay - the first person to go, work, buy land. The money from buying land can be used as an immigration fund, and then new people can be moved in to continue working and buying land, thus snowballing.

This can prevent the situation of "landlords in the New World who enclose land and hinder the development of productivity" in the British colonies.

It can also ensure that there is still a steady stream of wage labor in North America, where the means of production are readily available.

And because the cost of crossing the Pacific Ocean is too high, it is frighteningly high.

A new colony has economic value and can complete the economic cycle, which requires a certain population base.

Therefore, the early immigrants, or the fuse of the immigration plan, can only be gold, silver and copper mines.

The first step is prospecting.

The second step is contracting and buying.

The third step is to buy gold and silver mines and pay to immigrate and go there to mine. Only gold, silver and copper mines can make immigration across the Pacific profitable.

The fourth step is court control, registration system, and paying money to buy land after working for five years.

The fifth step is to put the money from buying land into the immigration fund and start a cycle until the population is sufficient to support the operation of trans-Pacific trade.

Historically, the Virginia Company could grow tobacco.

But the Dashun could not do that. Growing tobacco? Not to mention growing tobacco, even growing sugar cane, these days, trans-Pacific trade is a money-losing business.

The West Coast of North America is different from Oceania.

The development of Oceania can be disorderly, relying on spontaneous gold rushes.

Anyway, Dashun is now stuck at the Cape of Good Hope, and the astronomical positioning technology of longitude and latitude has also matured. We can do it spontaneously and without spending a penny. More than a hundred years later, Oceania will also be Chinese.

The West Coast is different. The country must use its strength to complete early immigration to the West Coast and form a population advantage in a short period of time.

Before the contradiction between man and land explodes on the east coast of North America, ensure the demographic advantage of the west coast.

For the Dashun court, the population of Shandong, Henan and other places was there, so when calculating accounts, they could only count subtractions, not additions.

Don’t calculate “how much money immigrants could have earned in the past.”

Just calculate how much possible uprisings can be reduced by immigration.

Immigration itself is the meaning and the greatest economic value.

There is no need to consider how much tax these immigrants can collect regardless of their past immigration.

Taking history as a guide, the Mongolian Yuan Dynasty's creation of Duzi originated from the tossing of the Yellow River, and the result was a one-eyed stone man.

Dashun is now so bold that he wants to torment the Yellow River again. So, since he has already started to toss, then don't think about how much money he can make by tossing the Yellow River. Just think about not going to the point of digging out the one-eyed stone man, which will make a lot of money.

Therefore, this makes Dashun's attitude towards the gold, silver and copper mines on the west coast very delicate.

In short, if you don't lose money, you will make a lot of money. If you lose less, you will make less money. As long as you can squeeze people in and don't make a one-eyed stone man, you will make more money.

And here, since the formal colonial law criticized by Lao Ma is to solve the chronic diseases of the colonization colony, it serves to establish the relationship between people such as capital.

Then, the owner of the capital does not necessarily need private mining. The Dashun court can also be the owner and user.

Not only by not recognizing any private enclosures, nor by recognizing any land purchased through agreements between private individuals and indigenous peoples, but also through the one-step nationalized purchase of mines, farmland, wasteland, and forestland, the criticized "formal" practices have been systematically practiced. Colonial Law”.

Relatively speaking, Dashun is relatively familiar with this set of things.

If it really doesn't work, or if this method really doesn't work, it's not impossible to understand the land equalization method: granting land, and serving in the mines regularly. Just replace being a soldier with going mining. Of course, this is really not an option.