New Shun 1730

The reason for this counterintuitiveness actually stems from the mainstream understanding of colonization and trade at that time.

The mercantilist trade idea was suitable for Europe at that time, but not for Dashun.

Of course, the idea of ​​free trade was not very suitable for Dashun either. At least the domestic unified market was far away for the time being, because the population of the first industrial revolution was only in the millions, while the small farmers in Dashun who might not be able to participate in it were in the hundreds of millions.

Therefore, Dashun's policy attitude towards Xinyizhou produced this counterintuitive effect: it hoped that the industry here would develop as fast as possible, and the faster it developed, the faster it could complete the purpose of relocation and alleviate the pain of local transformation.

This is because the situations of different countries are different and cannot be applied mechanically.

Just as Britain had to solve the problem of insufficient wage labor force due to loss of land; Russia had to solve the problem of geopolitical blockage. According to the transportation cost theory of free trade, Russia should not have the problem of economic prosperity; France had to solve the problem of producing several strong men in succession to improve the controlled economy, even if it was at the level of the third.

And Dashun now.

There is a market, the entire east of the Cape of Good Hope, and the old three trades in Europe.

There is a population, a million people needed for the first industrial revolution, and the number of refugees caused by Dashun's "natural annexation" every year is more than this number.

There is capital, and primitive accumulation is very good. Since the Ming Dynasty, it has been absorbing silver from all over the world. The only thing left to get rid of the "deflation" gold and silver shortage is the gold and silver mines in San Francisco and Yinshan.

There is technology, even if it is just handicrafts, the technology is leading, and steam engines have begun to be used in some industrial sectors in southern Sichuan, Songsu, and Jingji.

The only problem is how to transform and how to survive the transformation.

Liu Yu's idea was very clear from the beginning: rely on overseas markets to raise the emerging class, wait for the emerging class to grow, or the storm of revolution in Europe and India to break out, so that the growing emerging class will return to eat the domestic market.

This matter will definitely be very painful.

Historically, the problem of the sub-port tax that forced Hankou to open is also happening in Dashun today.

The problem is still the same: the two Opium Wars and the subsequent imperialist aggression, the biggest problem is that the national capital was killed, not the small peasant economy. After all these years of tossing, the national capital of Dashun has risen, and it is impossible to be killed by imperialism, but the problem is that after the national capital rises, the small peasant economy will also die.

Will the small peasant economy die in the hands of its own national capital? Or die in the hands of imperialism?

There is no difference in the matter of death.

But it makes a big difference in whose hands it dies.

Death in the hands of external imperialism means that the national capital is also dead.

Death in the hands of the national capital of the country means that the national capital of the country is alive.

In other words, from the beginning, Dashun had to solve two things:

First: national capital survives and develops.

Second: how to make the small peasant economy die, and how to operate the process of death so that the death can be controlled.

Liu Yu tossed around for these years, but actually only solved the first thing. He didn't dare to touch the second thing at all, and he even never thought that this thing could be accomplished by the reform of the feudal dynasty of Dashun.

That’s why he thought that Dashun would die.

Of course, things have to be done step by step, and it’s not that reforms have no effect at all.

For example, in the Northeast, there are many reasons, including subsequent migration, the soybean industry that is directly connected to the capitalist system cycle of Dashun, and the climate that cannot grow cotton.

The small peasant economy in the Northeast is not strong, and even if it is, even if it dies, it will not be so painful. If the family has an average of dozens of acres of land, it will certainly be impacted, but it is not impossible to survive.

For example, in the Songsu area, relying on 30 years of reform, the small peasant economy has been disintegrated bit by bit - such as along the canal in Nantong, although in form, men farm and women weave, women weave cloth at home with single iron wheel looms under the purchase system, but these cloths are purely traded in the domestic and international markets, so this kind of men farming and women weaving cannot be regarded as a complete small peasant economy, even if it is still men farming and women weaving in form.

And in North China, it can be said that the problem is the most difficult to solve.

In fact, this is a very, very simple "arithmetic problem".

Under the basic premise that there are no fertilizers, no large-scale water conservancy projects, no improved varieties, and North China began to promote three crops every two years, the per mu yield is calculated based on 150 jin.

According to the actual tax rate of Dashun - not the national tax rate, the main function of the national tax rate is to write it in history books - it is about 20%.

According to the preset situation that men farm and women weave, the village handicraft industry collapses, and Songsu products are unimpeded without domestic tariffs.

Don't consider the dream of children going to school. If it's like this, why go to school.

Don't consider natural disasters, floods, droughts, etc.

Remove taxes, labor, etc., and the family only has salt, oil, fire, cooking, and buying the most basic pants to avoid going out naked.

Then calculate the price of grain at one stone and one tael of silver.

Calculate how much grain each person needs to eat every year to fill their stomachs.

It is easy to conclude that if we want to make the transition less painful, at least the people can survive, and it is not impossible to consider factors such as fertilizers in the short term.

On average, each person needs at least 8 mu of land, and this situation does not take into account any form of floods, droughts, wars, plagues, etc. And it is assumed that everyone is a self-employed farmer, not a tenant or a land renter.

This is a very simple arithmetic problem.

Of course, everyone knows that the word "average" is very magical.

Moreover, it is impossible to avoid drought, flood, plague, etc., and never get sick for a lifetime.

However, even if all this is assumed to be a perfect situation, then... can some areas in North China reach 8 mu of land per capita?

If this line cannot be reached, there will inevitably be rebellion, and the people will simply be living in dire straits under the impact.

This is still under the conditions that rain and heat are simultaneous in Dashun, agricultural technology is unique in the world at this time, and the per mu yield is the highest in the world at this time.

Historically, in the 17th year of Jiaqing in the Qing Dynasty, the population of Shandong exceeded 3,000, and the per capita cultivated land area reached an extremely dangerous 3.5 mu, and soon reached 2.8 mu, which must break out a large-scale uprising.

By the 34th year of Guangxu in the Qing Dynasty, Shandong's "labor cost" reached the lowest value in history: the daily wage of short-term workers was equivalent to 1.9 kilograms of sorghum rice, and they still had to rush to do it. If you don't do it, there are plenty of people who will do it. Note that it is sorghum rice, not wheat, not rice.

Therefore, in fact, Dashun is now in North China, and has reached a historical turning point.

This is also one of the important reasons why the emperor decided to agree to solve the Yellow River problem - the per capita land area has reached a dangerous value. If the Yellow River really breaks and floods several prefectures, it will inevitably be a super-large-scale peasant uprising.

Looking at Shandong alone, there is still a chance in theory, and the per capita land has not yet reached an extremely low state.

The east can go to Guandong to divert a group; the southeast can develop industry, grow tobacco, and rely on rice from Japan and Korea to eat the difference between industry and agriculture; the west can relocate as many people as possible through the Yellow River Canal and other issues...

At least, in theory, there is an opportunity to complete the transformation with little pain after equalizing land.

Although equalizing land itself is an unattainable thing. But material things are not created out of thin air. Even if equalizing land, Shandong has a total of so much land and population. It is impossible to equalize the 50 mu of high-quality land, 100 mu of medium-quality land, or 150 mu of low-quality land per household as envisioned by the retro Confucian scholars by just saying equalizing land.

Therefore, this led to the fact that the Dashun School of Realism reformers had an attitude towards New Yizhou in North America that was incompatible with the mercantilist colonial thinking of Europe at that time.

In short: what is that market? Besides, the sea blocks it, and it is all one-way trip there. You can't bring food back after going there, so why bother?

On the contrary, the purpose of the toss is to enable the place to absorb the population quickly.

If you can benefit, everyone can benefit, everyone can run, and everyone can go. If you can benefit 5 million people in 30 years, and count those who went to Guandong, and increase the per capita land area of ​​Shandong to 10 mu, this will be the greatest "merit".

With this great achievement as the goal, let alone the development of the textile industry in New Yizhou, even if New Yizhou can develop the silk and porcelain industry, that's fine. As long as the industry can be developed, it's fine to pull people there.

As for attracting people... the West Coast is not the East Coast, the Pacific Ocean is not the Atlantic Ocean, and Jinshan is not the land environment like the Southeast Cotton Belt. Planting and plantations cannot attract anyone because there is no profit at all.

The gold mine can attract 300,000 or 500,000 people at most; Liu Yu embezzled the equity of the bubble company and moved 300,000 or 500,000 people at most.

A population of 100,000 or 100,000 people can scare France, Britain, and Spain. But for Dashun... even without Dashun, just Shandong Province is a drop in the bucket.

Therefore, Dashun can only use the modern colonial technology criticized by Lao Ma, artificially relying on state power and land nationalization to distort prices and attract immigrants.

And it cannot rely on the so-called "free reclamation" of the East Coast.

Let me give you a simple example: you are a poor peasant in western Shandong, who has the strongest desire to immigrate. Even if you know how good Fusang is and how much land there is, can you move there by yourself?

A poor peasant family with more than ten acres of land can sell for how much money? How much does it cost to walk from western Shandong to Jinan and then from Jinan to Weihai?

Boarding the ship from Weihai...even if the ship ticket is completely free, even if the court is very kind, even if the ship is built without a ticket.

Then, taking the most classic Manila sailing current route, it will take at least six months.

During these six months, you can't work, but you have to eat, right? You have to drink water, right?

Even if you are very kind and drink water on the ship for free.

Then, how much money will it cost for six months of food? You can save enough money for your family to not starve even if they don't work for six months, so you are still worthy of being called a poor peasant?

When you get there, the seeds will not bear fruit the next day after being sown, you have to wait another year.

Even if you say that you are the reincarnation of Gao Cuilan's husband, and you don't need a cow to work, and you bring your own nine-toothed rake and other tools to dig the ground directly, you still have to wait until the wheat is ripe.

All this, can you move away without a family fortune of a hundred or ten taels of silver?

But even if you have a family fortune of 100 or 100 taels of silver, you can't become a landlord there - because a landlord must have not only land but also tenants and long-term workers. If you have land but no tenants and long-term workers, you can't become a landlord - if you have a family fortune of 100 or 100 taels of silver, why do you want to go there to be a self-employed farmer?

Besides, it is impossible to buy a boat ticket for free.

So, the reality is: if your family doesn't have a family fortune of 300 or 500 taels of silver, you can't go; but if you have a family fortune of 300 or 500 taels of silver, you don't want to go.

The East Coast model allows you to be a contract servant and work on farms and plantations. That's because the East Coast has the whole of Europe as a market, the things on the plantations are profitable, and the labor of contract servants can exploit surplus value.

West Coast model, what idiot would open a plantation on the West Coast? What to plant? Where to sell? How to make money? The plantation model, unless Dashun is completely crazy, not only cannot grow opium locally, but also cannot grow or harvest it in Southeast Asia, Ezo, India, Turkey and other places, and can only grow opium on the west coast and then sell it exclusively in the country, then it will work. Build the plantation immigration model.

Therefore, whether slaves or indentured servants, the essence is to participate in world trade and extract the labor income of indentured servants or slaves.

If it cannot be extracted or squeezed out, then there will be no indentured servants, slaves, or long-term indentured workers in Dashun.

The key lies in the words "extracting surplus value".

The plantation cannot be established.

Tenancy system landlords, landlords have no quirks. If they collect a bunch of grain, they love grain rather than use grain.

Gold mines can only accommodate a limited amount of labor.

Then, we can only develop industry and create an environment that can "extract surplus value", so that private capital and factory owners can seize people from Dashun.

The bigger the scale, the more people are arrested.

The more people there are, the easier it is to scale.

Therefore, Dashun's policy towards Xinyizhou was to "encourage the development of industry in the colonies."

This is naturally completely different from the past colonial policy based on European and mercantilist ideas.

Therefore, Xinyizhou and the West Coast were the only ones in the world at this time, including all colonial countries such as Spain, Portugal, Britain, France, and the Netherlands, that supported the development of colonial industry and had official guidance and support for its development.